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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    He's an example of how WAR can overvalue given extreme/questionable defensive data. His bWAR is within 0.5 of Cruz right now. No. Nevertheless, he COULD be special with relatively modest, but consistent improvement in his offensive game...and he showed real signs of moving in that direction this year. But, for 2020 and beyond, the Twins need to be coming up with 3 legitimate major-league outfielders not named Buxton. Does that mean you part ways? Not necessarily. Does it mean you're forced to show more patience/commitment with Rosario than you would otherwise? Maybe. But one way or the other, as a FO, you wouldn't be doing your job if you simply assumed he'd be your every-day center fielder moving forward.
  2. jkcarew
    Kind-of a click-bait title (not surprising these days). What's discussed in the article, really isn't close to "not needing minor league baseball"...more like "not needing as much affiliated minor league baseball". IMO, we're already headed in this direction. These days, it's generally agreed (and accepted) that affiliated minor league baseball is not about winning. It's about perfecting the pitch, and/or the swing...and primarily for the 'top' prospects. Everything else is incidental. And it's been pretty easy to observe the major-league results for a while now: diversity of style/approach is disappearing, in-game/situational skills...other than launching a baseball (or throwing it at a high rate of speed)...are eroding. This just takes it to the next logical level, which is to increase the quality and intensity of training for those that already show the most promise regarding those anointed skills. Does it make sense? Yes. Would it probably lead to marginal improvements in performance for the organizations that execute it well? Probably. Is it the kind of thing that gets me excited about the future of the professional game? No.
  3. jkcarew
    I think when you have the depth that this team has, you take advantage and spread the playing time around HOPING that there’s a payoff in terms of health by the end of the season. Doesn’t really seam that there’s been much of a payoff. Or, maybe the assumptions have just changed...and players only play when everything is perfect now...and it would have been even worse without the rest? I do think at some point, all the ‘precautionary’ rest and time off results in less, not more, productive time on the field for a given player. And I think pinch-hitting Ryan LaMarre is weird. Maybe the chip they’ve implanted in Sano indicated a fever of 98.7. He’s day-to-day.
  4. jkcarew
    He’ll be 31 next year with less than 900 career innings on his arm. I do think there are obvious questions regarding his conditioning and his body holding up...and those questions were there before this incident.
  5. jkcarew
    Why would age make a difference? And how does Pineda’s missed time due to injuries make this worse? They both made very bad decisions that hurt their team. The fact that this hurts worse than Polanco’s incident is incidental, IMO...and something that Polonco could not have known when he did his thing.
  6. jkcarew
    So Polanco gets a break because he calculated that the team probably wouldn’t be good, so it was worth the chance? (I know you aren’t necessarily making that argument.)
  7. jkcarew
    So, if you don’t want Pineda back in 2020 based on morals, you must really hate having Polanco on the team. And if you don’t want him back because you think his performance will collapse coming off the suspension, then you’ve ignored Polanco. I think you’re entitled to either opinion. But I don’t share either.
  8. jkcarew
    I think the rankings are influenced by the draft position...at least until the player does something that draws attention. Ober was a 12th-round pick out of a small college...but, he's now drawn attention. I speculate he'll start showing up in some top 20 lists this off-season. At age 23 (now 24), Pensacola was the first stop were Ober was younger than the competition. You like to see "top-ish" prospects succeed against the older guys at some point. Very encouraging.
  9. jkcarew
    Better, but less likely....get hot in the 5-game to knock off the Yankees...and the Astros somehow get upset on the other side. (Or if you like, get hot/lucky against the Astros in the ALDS, and the Yankees are upset on the other side.) Meanwhile, the Dodgers lose the NL pennant...to someone other than an experienced and hot Cubs club...and probably someone other than the Nations, as well. No team is simply going to walk through all three of Houston, the Yankees, and the Dodgers. In a theoretical world where all the ‘best of the rest’ (either league) had to face that gauntlet, I’d give the Twins and the Nationals the best chance...but, no.
  10. jkcarew
    Not really, right? They’re similar...except Yelich hits the ball harder...and significantly more consistently to all fields. Yelich was posting 120-130 wRC+ numbers as a 23 and 24 year old with modest (even very modest) HR rates. Meanwhile, Max is posting a 123 wRC+ at age 26...and it’s extremely dependent upon the ball flying over the fence at a high rate. Max is Max. Which is very good...especially considering his solid defense and team-friendly contract. And yes, he still seems to be getting better.
  11. jkcarew
    Just think what a great reliever he’d be!
  12. jkcarew
    No question the Odorizzi and Pineda acquisitions have worked out very well. And I'm not expecting the good results this fast, I'm hoping. Given the situation the club is in, having one or two internal options emerge...and emerge soon...as a legitimate 1-4 (ok...2-4) might be 'required' for 2020-2022 to work out the way we want.
  13. jkcarew
    Well....I pulled .575 out of my ___ ...primarily because it worked out to a 93-win season...and I didn't thing anyone could argue that that would have been accepted as a 'wonderful' pace heading into the season...and a 'fine' pace over any stretch. And it would seem unreasonable to call that pace anything near a 'historic collapse'. And partly because, honestly, I didn't see the Twins doing much worse that .575 after June 2 given the how the schedule would unfold. Blind squirrel. We'll see. The real difference since that post is that Cleveland no longer looks to be on their own way to 100 wins.
  14. jkcarew
    Nice. I think...now at 34 games over...that clears the 1970 season...or I guess it matches that season since that club finished 34 games over. Anyway, if/when the Twins get to 35 games over (or more), the "since" dates will all be in Sept/Oct of 1965. In looking at this, I noticed the 1970 team had a 9-game losing streak...part of a stretch where they lost 13 of 17. Division lead went from 9 on Aug 8th to 3 on Sept. 3. Surprising that that roller-coaster didn't result in a bigger swing similar to what the Twins experienced in July/Aug of this year. The 1970 team fared slightly better than this year's club figures to against teams finishing better than 500. The 1970 club was 40-32 against teams that ended up better than 500. (Current Twins at 27-31...1991 club had a massive 62 wins against teams that finished better than 500.)
  15. jkcarew
    1) you're bad at selecting and developing starting pitching....so,... 2) you over-spend to acquire it (money or prospect capital); which results in... 3) you aren't very good for very long Front Office is currently deciding if they should go 1, 2, 3.....or directly from 1 to 3. The only thing that's going to make things sustainably better is to change number 1. I wish I saw more evidence that that is happening with this new FO/organization. It can't happen fast enough.
  16. jkcarew
    Right. Arbitration eligible in 2020 and 2021. So, maybe the poster that I responded to meant "don't extend beyond 2021"...or "force the arbitration process". Either way, the Twins can offer a multi-year extension, or trade him...and they have until July 31, 2021 (latest...Brian Dozier scenario) to trade him.
  17. jkcarew
    You don’t want the wild card. That path is much tougher since they added the second wild-card and the ‘play-in’ game. Now, even if you survive that, you’ve typically burned your best starter. You absolutely want to win the division. But, I don’t think there’s that much value difference between the 2 and 3 seed...or even the 1 and 3 seed.
  18. jkcarew
    He’s signed through 2021...and there’s no reason he would accept a 1-year extension or 1-year deal of any kind. The Twins will give him a multi-year deal/extension...or they’ll trade him.
  19. jkcarew
    "Jose Miranda made his Double-A debut and went 3-for-5 with a double." Of course he did. Just released from batters' jail (aka, the Florida State League)...where you play 7-inning double-headers every 3 days due to rain-outs, and the air is always laced with 97% humidity...and where Miranda's numbers this season were pretty ugly...even 'worse' than Royce Lewis's.
  20. jkcarew
    I agree with the "give him another year"...and that the numbers were influenced by a tough league for hitters. But if Lewis profiled like Mondesi offensively (still TBD, obviously)...that would make me feel worse, not better. Mondesi is not a good offensive player at the major-league level. (Not at this point, anyway.) Meanwhile, nobody is expecting Lewis to be a plus defender at SS. Lewis needs to hit eventually...better than Mondesi has shown so far.
  21. jkcarew
    "On the other hand, they've won only one series against a good team in the past two months. Their rotation looks like a mess even against bottom-dwelling clubs that have all but given up. And now, the difficulty level is about to turn up by several notches. It feels like a reckoning is coming unless Minnesota can rise to the challenge." Fair assessment, IMO. Twins next 12 games: 6 against Cleveland; 6 against Boston/Washington (Nationals with best record in baseball over last 3+ months...58-28 since May 23). Cleveland's next 12 games: 6 against Twins; 6 against Angels/White Sox. We ain't home yet. Especially considering how the starting pitching match-ups could look over this stretch. This stretch is about surviving. Surviving should be good enough. Thriving would be great, and that's possible, but not my expectation.
  22. jkcarew
    Not even a remote chance Graterol gets a start...unless, it's in 'opener' fashion. So, maybe 'all of the above". The last time Graterol had an appearance that lasted more than 2 innings or 29 pitches was May 19...which was also his last appearance this season as a starting pitcher. The question at this point is...will Graterol start games next year? Lot's of signs that point to 'no'.
  23. jkcarew
    Priorities...1, win division. Lost of games left with Cleveland. Next 12 are Cleveland, the Red Sox, who we never seem to play well against, and the Nationals, who have about the best record in baseball over the last 3+ months (58-28 since May 23). 2, rest key starters, leverage relievers, and even certain position players (i.e., Polanco), and dinged-up guys. 3, get playing time for key guys coming off injuries (Buxton, Gonzalez). If I were Rocco, getting the #2 seed wouldn't even register in my consciousness at this point. If it happens, it happens. Win a game on the road.
  24. jkcarew
    IMO, the ceiling is low. The OPS at Rochester this season well below league average. So far, he’s a corner outfielder with no power. Meanwhile, the OBP has come from BB, not BA (or BABiP). Hard to imagine that being sustainable over time in the bigs with as little power as he has shown. Don’t really think he’s going to be much of a base stealing threat in the majors either...to the extent there are still going to be “base stealers” the way the game is played now...they will be guys with elite speed. That’s not Wade. On the other hand, the floor is probably what we see. Maybe plus defense in the corners, good first-to-this base runner...and able to take professional at-bats and put the ball in play. 4th (or 5th) outfielder.
  25. jkcarew
    Tigers on pace for 45 hits tonight.
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