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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Really good question, right? Has to be lack of command of one or both. I guess we'll find out...or hopefully not !
  2. jkcarew
    I'm a fan. IMO, Sano pretty consistently demonstrates a love of the game, of winning, and of his teammates. Becoming a great power hitter in the major leagues is a process...lot's of players experience greatness...several even right out of the gate...but relatively few sustain it. It's a process of trying to learn and trying to adjust...and it seems like Miguel has finally embarked on that process. It still won't be linear, and it remains to be seen where it will take him, but I'm encouraged and exited that he's begun the process.
  3. jkcarew
    For that Sano at-bat, MLB’s pitch tracking had two of the pitches just inside the zone and two outside the zone. Regardless of the box being used, Sano did his job by not offering at any of those pitches once he was ahead in the count.
  4. jkcarew
    We have to go 34-4 to win the division? I guess I shouldn’t have settled for that liberal arts education. I’ve been thinking we’re in better shape than that.
  5. jkcarew
    Is Cavaco injured? Over two months into his professional career and we’re shy of 80 PA. On the back lots, maybe? Hasn’t appeared in a game for 9 days now. Very quiet debut for a #13 overall pick, to say the least.
  6. jkcarew
    Oops
  7. jkcarew
    Dumb play by a young guy followed by a harmless plunking of Kepler. Professionals policing themselves. Much ado about nothing.
  8. jkcarew
    Not sure Astudillo is prominent in plans unless more injuries occur. If he came back today, it's possible he'd replace Cave...but, then Cruz returns. Having said that, Sept 1 is fast approaching, and I'm sure he'd be one they'd want on the expanded roster.
  9. jkcarew
    But why would the roster situation (one spot open) preclude Thorpe being the callup? I agree that the spot is open for Graterol...and that move will be coming. But I'd guess Thorpe for this one. His last start was only 3 innings and 42 pitches three days ago...and relatively clean. Meanwhile Graterol has had two appearances and 3 innings at Pensacola since his return. In his last, he threw 14 pitches, 6 for strikes, walked two of the four batters he faced. Graterol wouldn't shock me...he's coming...but I've got a case of Grain Belt Premium that I recently found in the garage that says this one will be Thorpe.
  10. jkcarew
    If you're removing Cron from the lineup to insert Garver...probably worth a try. If Cron is healthy and simply slumping... Removing Cron from the lineup to insert Gonzalez or Adrianza...beware the small sample size trap. Those moves would be unlikely to help offensively over the longer term. And none of the options are likely to improve the infield defense materially...maybe the opposite.
  11. jkcarew
    "Max Kepler once had a 10 DRS roughly a month ago and has slumped all the way back to just 5 DRS on the season." Beware of defensive statistics. In many cases, they're downright stupid. The Twins defense has been exactly what you could have expected it to be from the very beginning of the year, but recently with the offense only scoring 5 runs a game, the errors are way more memorable/impactful. Everyone knew they would be weak on the infield and good in the outfield. The dynamic that's changed is Kepler has played more center field than ideal, Rosario has been slowed...and Arraez in place of Schoop, drops the infield another half-notch maybe. You're left with a pretty poor defensive team. Buxton back helps, but it doesn't change the dynamic. This team is not build to win with defense or pitching. The pitching and defense can be marginally better, but they'll win by beating the opposition into submission with their offense. Or they won't win.
  12. jkcarew
    Never seen that before. Ever.
  13. jkcarew
    The reverse jinx. Thanks...we needed it.
  14. jkcarew
    Killebrew was hitting HRs at a rate of 7+% in an era when non-pitchers were hitting them at about a 2.3% rate. That's three times the rate of the league. Just for context... If Max Kepler was hitting HRs at 3x the league average in 2019 (non-pitchers)...his current 501 PA would give him 58 HR on the season. Needless to say, nobody hits home runs at the rate of 3x league average anymore.
  15. jkcarew
    This much I know for sure.... Standing in the box and looking out at that, out there on top of the mound, 60 feet six inches away....he could throw 100 90-mph fastballs over the middle of the plate and I'd never make contact. My toes would be scraping the outside of the box and I'd be bailing before his release. I guess that's why I'm a fan.
  16. jkcarew
    And then there's Gonzalez's career 101 OPS+ to Adrianza's 87. I like Adrianza as an occasional utility guy on the infield...and coming off the bench (though I wish he was faster on the bases). He's not a guy where you're going to choose to make him an every-day presence in the lineup, if you have an alternative like Gonzalez.
  17. jkcarew
    "Is his 4.0% BB rate and .386 BABIP sustainable? Probably not, we saw him do the exact same thing in 2014 when his BABIP was sky-high and it was just as unsustainable then as it is now, but it is still weird to see him back in the majors like this." While a factor, Santana's current BABiP has much less to do with his 2019 value than his HR%. Even if the BABiP starts regressing, he'll still be plenty valuable if he continues to hit home runs at his current clip of 5.38% (better than Carlos Santana, about the same as Matt Chapman).
  18. jkcarew
    What confuses me is the low (relatively) K% given he throws 100 mph at the AA level. His K% at Pensacola this year is 24.6%....slightly behind Bryan Sammons. Here are the Twins pitchers with a higher K% at the major-league level this year....Odorizzi, Rogers, May, Duffey, Poppen. Kyle Gibson is at 22.6%. Something isn't adding up quite yet. Lack of high-quality secondary pitch where everyone can sit on the FB? Poor command, tending to throw the FB over the middle of the plate? Some of each? He's 20...got plenty of time to figure that out. But, right now I'm not counting on him to come up and blow people away.
  19. jkcarew
    Take heed prospect rankers! Everyone knew Arraez would hit. But his other tools (particularly power and speed) were deemed weak and average. And there always seems to be a bias for ceiling...but doesn't give enough weight to the risk associated with the tool that is the most important tool by a mile. So, the fast and and/or powerful guy that 'might' hit gets ranked ahead of the guy that you know will hit. Having said that...I do the same thing.
  20. jkcarew
    It's really scrambling the perception of performances at the AAA level. Can just flip over to the thread on the most recent minor's recap and see several comments about how 'great' Zander Wiel has been this year. (Not to pick on Wiel...he's just an example.) He's hit 20 HR and his OPS is around .815. But the reality is everyone's OPS in that ballpark is around .820. Wiel has an wRC+ of 98. I would think it works in reverse for the pitchers. There are pitchers at Rochester that are better than their numbers indicate. Doesn't seem like it would be that hard to get all levels of the affiliated minors onto the same ball...and at least at that point we could adjust our interpretations of performance to a more consistent standard. Right now, a 21-year old prospect in Ft Myers who is OPS'ing around .700 is doing better than the 24 year-old in Rochester OPS'ing .825. That seems silly.
  21. jkcarew
    Wiel has done very very well for himself advancing to this point as a 12th round draft pick. But he's not really having a great season. Actually, he's having his worse professional season...by far. The AAA ball (and Rochester's park) are inflating statistics pretty horrifically. Wiel's OPS is actually below Rochester's team collective OPS. His wRC+ is 98. Which is downright poor for a first baseman. But, it will be interesting to see how he does with the 'opportunity' to repeat AAA next year...as he's been significantly better at each of his previous stops in the minors....and at 26 still could be a late bloomer. Here are some wRC+ for some of the 'prospects' at Rochester... Jake Cave 146 Brent Rooker 138 LaMonte Wade 103 Nick Gordon 101 Zander Wiel 98
  22. jkcarew
    No mention of Romero?
  23. jkcarew
    Agree that you continue to play Javier. But it sure looks like it was a mistake to start him in A ball when he finally came back. That wasn’t necessary given the timing of his return.
  24. jkcarew
    No. When two competing teams have such a large number of games against really, really bad teams....the likelihood that each of the competitors take turns stringing together ridiculous hot streaks increases. The possibility that one of the teams can 'stumble' to a 97-win 2nd-place finish increases.
  25. jkcarew
    If the Twins would have played .575 baseball after June 2 (a 93-win pace across an entire season), they would have finished with 99-100 wins. Would 4 fewer wins across those last 102 games be a 'collapse'? Historical? We'll see what happens. The magnitude of this swing...and the swings that could still happen...are the result of a horrendous imbalance in competition, and the unbalanced schedule. You have two 'good' teams in a division and league where they will play nearly half of their schedule against truly historically awful teams, teams that were never even trying to win...Seattle, Baltimore, Miami, Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago...(though ChiSox just bad, not historically bad...and 'trying'). The math possibilities are unprecedented.
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