jkcarew

To date, three of the four weakest SoS in MLB are from the AL Central. Cleveland weakest, Twins basically tied for 3rd weakest. This was expected. Cleveland more or less not trying to win games, but will likely continue to track toward a playoff appearance that they'd just as soon defer.

"Finally, Nightengale also reported that the owner of the Cincinnati Reds, who currently have the second worst record in the National League, wants to stay in the league as long as possible." So far, so good! They've stayed in the league since 1869.

Still, he's now played in 10 of 19 games...and he didn't really have a late start. It's noteworthy. He's either been nursing an injury, or this is a deliberate approach for his development. Would be interesting to know which.

"After laying waste to the Appalachian League with nine home runs in 23 games, OF Albee Weiss was promoted to Cedar Rapids." I don't know if I'd call a .295 OBP and 37 K in 105 PA 'laying waste' to the Appalachian League. All that swing-and-miss is why Weiss was repeating the Appy League in the first place. And since he's about to turn 24, he'll need to see if he can figure it out at higher levels. All that power means he'll be shown more patience than a typical 23rd-rounder. Meanwhile, Keoni Cavaco has finally got his 10th professional game in. The GCL Twins have played 18...don't know what it means or why Cavaco has been held out of so many games. Early results are not good. The good news is that his K-rate is 'only' about 33% so far...so maybe not completely overwhelmed. It'll be interesting to see if he advances beyond the GCL in this, his draft year. That was the case for Kirilloff (drafted 15th) who advanced to Elizabethton...but not convinced that will be the case for Cavaco (drafted 13th). (Buxton advanced to Elizabethton and Lewis to Cedar Rapids.)

Not sure that if I needed one game, that I wouldn’t choose Odorizzi to start that game over Berrios at this point in time. Better WIP, FIP, ERA, K/9. Berrios better work horse and track record over the last couple of years.

And Duran works 95-99...what does one have to do with the other? The question of whether a starting prospect ends up a reliever has nothing to do with velocity. Robertson was good endurance-wise as a minor league starter. Was turned into a reliever because he couldn’t get anyone out as a starter. That’s not a problem Duran is having. Command seems to be his challenge.

Twins now 1-5 in Berrios’s last 6 starts.

Unfortunate timing if nothing else. Mejia’s been decent before and likely will be again at some point. But he’s really bad at the precise moment where the club is desperate for a lefty in the pen...yet can’t wait for someone without options to figure things out. You have to believe one of the moves is going to be for a left-handed bullpen arm.

Well stated. And in the case of a 21-year-old that stands 6-5 like Duran, I would agree with Longenhagen. No obvious reason to doubt that he could have the strength and leverage to maintain velocity through many innings. Of course, we’ll need to wait and see how many of his offerings will have major-league quality/command.

Best wishes for Chase De Jong. Sometimes, I feel worse for guys like De Jong than the guys who wash out early. Been a pro for 8+ years, had a couple of good AAA showings...but hit the wall there. Much better career than most that get the opportunity...but still has to be tough.

He was bad last night despite only the one earned run. But that hasn’t been the norm. Gibson’s FIP is 4.11 (to Barrios’s 3.83) and has a better K/9 and about the same H/9 as Berrios...and, as mentioned, has managed to log the 2nd most innings on the staff despite starting the year in recovery mode from the off-season illness. I think several of the starters seem to be in small slumps, which happens over 6+ months of baseball. They don’t seem to have been over-worked...so, I’m optimistic on them bouncing back. In the meantime, the Twins should absolutely be looking for someone they evaluate ahead of Gibson and or Odorizzi (if not Barrios).

This. I think the thing that we forget about Kielty, is that although a switch-hitter, he was already showing signs of being a terrible left-handed hitter. Hence, the need to platoon him....and you wanted to platoon him with a proven left-handed bat/outfielder...which the Twins didn't really have (Mike Ryan). In acquiring Stewart, the Twins got much better against right-handed pitching...and didn't go materially backward against left-handed pitching.

Exceptionally Raw would probably be appropriate, as well. But, at least in terms of statistical likelihood of even first round draft picks working out...I think Trevor Plouffe is probably not a bad outcome...though I'll hope for more for now

I don't get it.

4 consecutive days of getting exercise and things done around the house. President Ford said it best back in 1974...even though the break was only 3 days at that time..."My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over."

The summary for our first round draft pick (and #7 prospect) needs to be changed from "Did Not Play" to "Seldom Plays" or even "Never Plays" or "Injured", maybe?

It’s been a tough year for Lewis and Graterol. For me, I’m more concerned with Graterol...nothing to suggest he’s on a path to be a major league starter. Not that a stud reliever would be the worse thing in the world. Lewis seems capable of figuring it out...maybe later than we thought. And the move from SS to anywhere else is way easier than the other way around. I continue to expect the Twins to keep him there until the ‘last second’...until it’s obvious that he’d play for the big club at a different position.

I'm not outraged...but it's not helping the quality of the game...in case this was a deliberate act, it was the wrong one, IMO. I do wonder, however...is this significant enough to be resulting in 'false' evaluations of players at the AAA and MLB level? Yes, we're getting false results in absolute terms, but I'm talking about relative terms. Is there a player (or type/profile) out there that is benefiting dis-proportionally from this? If the 2020 ball immediately goes back to 'average' in terms of drag...are there certain players that immediately become materially less valuable relative to average/replacement? I wonder if this type of possibility is even on FO radars?

Huh? Are the Yankees going to have these coaches for eternity? Agents will be motivated...like they always have been...to maximize their income, which means maximizing their client's total income. Some micro, short-terms, contradictions occur, but over the long-term this is guaranteed to be the outcome. Guaranteed.

Some players. And I'm not looking forward to New York and LA each having 6 major league teams, either. But, I'll be interested in your analysis, for sure. I don't represent the current system as anything too close to perfect. But I don't see the draft itself as being one of the outstanding problems. And having the top end guys having to wait longer than they should to get to that 'more than I can ever spend' threshold...isn't at the top of my priority list.

Did I make an argument comparing the two in significance? They happened withing weeks of each other. It was a unique time.

So cool! Next story: what Dave and the Twins were doing on Aug 18 of that year when Jimi Hendrix closed out Woodstock. I'm not convinced Dave was aware of Woodstock at the time...or now, for that matter

My point is that there is no "impact to the arm" or impact from the arm, for that matter. Hard fastballs and well-hit balls are both initially traveling at close to 100 mph on the horizontal vector. So, once the ball is off the hand or off the bat, nothing matters except the 'coefficient of friction' (physics term for 'drag'). The ball is decelerating the instant the ball leaves the hand just as it is decelerating the instance it leaves the bat. And that rate of deceleration is determined entirely by the 'drag' inherent in the ball design plus other factors like net wind, barometric pressure (altitude), and humidity. All of those factors have an exponential impact on the velocity of the ball over time. A pitch that leaves a pitchers hand going 95 mph, is still going (close to) 95 when it crosses the plate less than one-half second later. A change in the 'coefficient of friction' of the baseball isn't going to have much impact...negligible. A guess: probably significantly less than an inch if you wanted to think of it in terms of position of the baseball at the same point in time after release. Another way of looking at the difference in impact the new ball would have on hitting vs pitching.... How often do you hear hitters complain about hitting into the wind, vs pitcher complaining about pitching into the wind? (even at lower levels before huge wind-altering grandstands come into play, etc.) Think of the 'new' baseball as having a built-in steady 10 MPH wind at it's back no matter to which field it is hit. That's going to materially lengthen distance traveled on balls hit at a decent launch angle. Meanwhile, a 10 mph wind at a pitchers back, or into his face...either way...is not going to have a material impact on the velocity of the pitch as it crosses home plate...it's so negligible, you never hear it discussed. edit: there are other non-velocity impacts that the new ball could have on pitching. I think some of these have been reported and/or mention in posts here: harder time gripping the ball, more walks/pitches, harder time spinning the ball and/or getting it to break, etc., etc.

I'm torn. On the one hand, it's out of hand...gotten almost to the point of embarrassing for MLB. On the other hand, I agree, this club is probably the first club the Twins have had since the 1960's that's constructed to take advantage.

That's the correct conclusion, but wrong reason. The reason is time. The effect of drag is exponential over time (for any given 'amount' of drag). That is to say, there is not enough TIME for drag to (significantly) impact a baseball over 60 feet....the ball is only traveling in the air for about one-half second (at the most).