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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Interesting article. Gives pause, for sure...but, I think I'm with vavo above...the biggest difference to my eyeballs is that the breaking pitch doesn't seem to be the weapon that it was. The velocity data notwithstanding, the 'mediocre' results seem to be tied more to the quality and command of the breaking ball...it not resulting in swings and misses and chases. IMO, we're simply seeing what he is. If he was any stronger/more durable and if his stuff was much better, he'd be Cole or deGrom or Verlander...or a prime version of Kluber, Scherzer, Kershaw, or Greinke. Instead, he's just very good...but can't be counted on to frequently dominate good lineups. You'd be golden if you had more than one of him. When he's your top, though...you're probably not going to have a match-up advantage in the post-season. So far. He's just 25. But for now, you're probably going to need to rest him at some point between now and October. I'd want it to be during a stretch against the bottom of the ALC.
  2. jkcarew
    I'll feel stronger about this at some future theoretical point where the unbalanced schedule doesn't play to an extreme advantage for the Twins .
  3. jkcarew
    Agree. Several reasons why it would make sense to go back to 154 games. And one big reason why it won't happen for the foreseeable future.
  4. jkcarew
    Yes, the injuries, whether major or minor, have always been a factor in every single professional season Graterol has had. The question is not so much "what will the Twins be willing to try with Graterol?"...the question is more..."how can you best use him before he breaks down?" To assume you can ask him to handle even a #5-type load of 20+ starts (say 135-150 innings) in 2020...and then still have him available and effective in the advent of a post-season...that seems unreasonably optimistic...regardless of what happens this fall.
  5. jkcarew
    I'll go with a 2006 analogy. White Sox were coming off their World Series win and had a good team...at or near the division lead pretty much all year. The Mauer/Morneau Twins hadn't yet accomplished anything. In late July, the Twins went to Chicago for a 3-game set, down by three in the standings. They left tied...and the race was effectively over between Chicago and the Twins. In the 3rd game of that series, we had Carlos Silva going against Buehrle. Didn't matter. Morneau was being an MVP that day. Of course that was the upstart saying "we're taking over". In this case, Cleveland played the role of the incumbent...and the upstart did not make that statement. Oh, well. We'll see. The script could still flip.
  6. jkcarew
    I think the Twins are pretty close to being what an optimistic (but reasonable) person would have thought they'd be heading into the season. An inconsistent, but dangerous, offense...with mediocre starters and a questionable bullpen....plus outfield defense, and minus infield defense. In short, a team that is better than most teams, but not that close to being on the level of the top teams. In the meantime, I think Cleveland is better than they were last year...while most were assuming they would take a step back this year. I still think the Twins win more than they lose heading down the stretch, and probably make the playoffs. But I think what we've seen in the last 6 weeks is who they are. For the most part, competing against all teams, but not good enough to consistently win games against quality teams.
  7. jkcarew
    Twins now 3-8 in Berrios’s last 11 starts. The 3 wins came against the Royals, White Sox, and Marlins. For those that defend the send of Cron in Saturday’s game because there were 2 out... The 2-out situation has never been an automatic send. Not when it’s Yasiel Puig’s arm against CJ Cron’s legs, the ball is hit hard directly at a shallow Puig, and most importantly, the alternative to sending is Kepler up with the bases juiced. Puig throws Cron out on that play at least 8 times out of 10. As Gary Gaetti famously said back in 1984 when the younger Twins players were struggling during their first real pennant race...”it’s hard to hit with both hands wrapped around your throat.” I guess the same can be said of coaching 3rd base.
  8. jkcarew
    It's adding that extra column to all the databases...and re-writing win% formulas. Reports are the tech workers refuse to do it until they're provided with meaningful defensive data. I'm on their side on this one.
  9. jkcarew
    Will be interesting to see where the staff goes with minors Hitter of the Year now that the two obvious front runners in Diaz and Davis are gone. Assuming there is a bias for the full-season affiliates (CR, Ft Myers, Pensacola, Rochester), the pickings are pretty slim...lots of poor to mediocre results combined with injury-aborted breakouts...and a sprinkle of 30+ year-old journeymen. Probably this next/last month determines the honor. At this point in time, I'd go with Travis Blankenhorn. And wondering when Rooker is going to come back from the worse groin injury ever. Pitching-wise, there are more guys out there with shinny numbers...but not necessarily the names you would want or have expected at the beginning of the year. Right now, I'd go with Randy Dobnak.
  10. jkcarew
    If your wife thinks getting to 2nd base is only the 25 yard-line.....well, to you I say congratulations, sir!
  11. jkcarew
    Season splits against LHP are always pretty SSS. I'd rather look at career splits when it comes to splits against LHP. Adrianza is at .725; Polanco at .697. (Although, Adrianza is hot against lefties this year so far.) I don't think the FO extended Polanco through 2024 (team option 2025) with the idea that we would platoon him. I think he continues to work on the swing from the right side as is reasonable...and in the meantime, you give him his off days against certain lefties.
  12. jkcarew
    The notion that the injuries related to Buxton's play in the outfield are the inevitable result of "playing hard" is beyond simplistic. There is a real and material aspect that impacts the likelihood of injury...they are abilities. One is the ability to be aware of your surroundings, even when things are happening fast around you. Another is the ability to comprehend the difference between good risks and bad risks. Buxton does not consistently demonstrate these abilities and it absolutely 100% contributes to his issues. Quarterbacks who looks like they're going to be killed, but are always able to get down at the last second...are they just lucky?...or are they not playing hard...or are they just good at recognizing where they (and others) are as the play unfolds? Quarterbacks who run out of bounds on first and second down, rather than going for the extra yards...are they not playing hard? Or are they just smart? On Wednesday against Atlanta, Jake Cave made an extremely 'hard'/aggressive play on a ball hit over the fence. He made very hard contact with the wall. But, he wasn't injured and it wasn't the result of good luck. He went after the ball in an effective way (if the ball had been hit just a couple of feet shorter, he would have caught it)...but, he did so in a manner that protected his limbs and his head...he did so in a way that mitigated the risk/likelihood of injury. He could make that exact same attempt...successfully making the play on occasion...100 times without sustaining an injury beyond sore ribs.
  13. jkcarew
    Two options are to either continue his development as a starter by building him back up in the minors....or, immediately (more or less) bringing him up to be a reliever or 'opener'. I say bring him up, and see what happens. He can be converted back to a starter for a future season (not that I think that's likely).
  14. jkcarew
    Unlike many of Byron Buxton's 'bad breaks'...I'm not sure this 'fiasco' could have been realistically avoided.
  15. jkcarew
    Who are the starting pitchers extending this window into 2020 and beyond? We going to have 4 rookie of the year candidates in the next two years in Thorpe, Graterol, Duran, and Balazovic? Interesting plan.
  16. jkcarew
    Astudillo.
  17. jkcarew
    From the very beginning of the year, he seems to have been more aggressive throwing the ball over the plate to get ahead early in the count. The results have been pretty predictable. Walk rate has declined a bit, and hits allowed rate has increased a bit. The extra hits have not resulted in more HR’s allowed. And the aggressiveness in the zone has resulted in an improvement in pitches per PA, (although probably contributing to a slight decrease in his K rate.) Other than that, his results are almost identical to last year’s. He’s improved marginally. He’s good. But, he wasn’t a legitimate Cy Young candidate as of 7:00pm on Tuesday, let alone 9:00pm.
  18. jkcarew
    The year the Royals won it they had the best record in the AL....on the back of the second-best team ERA in the AL and the best bullpen (by a mile). Then, in the WS, the Royals played an opponent with an inferior record (Mets). They were the favorites (at least in terms of records) in every post-season series they played that year.
  19. jkcarew
    It's one of the reasons the narrative of "Cleveland will lose a lot once they start playing good teams" is not something I'd want to hang my hat on.
  20. jkcarew
    Their best hitter hitting makes them a much better team. Ramirez's 2nd-half OPS is .993...and apparently rising.
  21. jkcarew
    Agreed...in 2020, anyway. Maybe at some point he's healthy enough, long enough, to start stretching him out with spot starts, etc...and logging some innings...and can be transformed into a regular piece of a major-league starting rotation. But 2020 seems beyond optimistic for that.
  22. jkcarew
    Graterol? He might be good enough to be that guy...in April and May. But, this will be his 5th year of professional baseball...and he will never have finished a season with more than about 100 total innings pitched. This season, Berrios passed that back in mid June.
  23. jkcarew
    Don't know....but the Yankees are 34-22 against +500 teams overall. And the Astros are 41-26. (The Twins apparently on their way to 26-28.) So, in a way...about what could have been reasonably expected before the season started. The A's being maybe better than expected...as usual (33-27 against +500), and the Red Sox being worse.
  24. jkcarew
    Interesting responses to this. IMO, Berrios has been neither horrible or particularly good (by number 1 standards) in this stretch. The stretch includes one or two 'great' starts along with this clunker. He hasn't given up a ton of runs in this stretch, but nor has he done a great job of consistently pitching efficiently and deep in a manner that would shut down great lineups and/or protect our weak bullpen. I'm simply stating that, in games where our best pitcher pitches, (and often faces the opposition's better pitchers), the Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games...only beating very weak opponents. My opinion...it will be a challenge in the post-season...and the Twins should be aggressive in trading (in the off-season, since the trade deadline is gone) for more top-of-rotation pitching.
  25. jkcarew
    Semantics. Let's go with avoidable, instead of reckless. There have been many center fielders in history that were aggressive in attempting difficult catches. Many knew how to mitigate risk while doing so, and, in fact, were rarely injured. Others, including Buxton, don't/didn't know how to do that. Agree that some of his missed time has been unavoidable...the hbp, etc. But, much has been avoidable.
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