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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Reports of the demise of the Cleveland Indians were premature. They have the exact same record at the break that they had last year...when they went on to win 91 games. But IMO, the relevant target still should not be Cleveland...the Twins are still in a position to be able to win the division by going something like 38-35 in the second half. The target/objective should be being relevant in a post-season series against the likes of NYY, Astros, a hot Red Sox club, etc.
  2. jkcarew
    Something I'd expect the head of a player's union to say these days. Doesn't solve anything, but like most things the players union comes up with, it sure would be great for all the very top end guys, and sure would be problematic (or worse) for everyone else. Let's make the next Bryce Harper even richer even earlier...meanwhile, the next Ian Kinsler or Adam Eaton (or Jaylin Davis) can start in independent ball and work at Walmart in the mornings during home-stands.
  3. jkcarew
    I think the season so far is a sum of lots of pleasant surprises that are (relatively) small. I think that's implicit in the Thrylos post above. Lots of players...almost all players...improving on recent norms. Regarding Buxton: "As a guy who lifts the ball at a higher rate than anyone else on the team, and has otherworldly speed, I'd expect a higher BABIP for Buxton than his current .302" How would the fact that Buxton's putting more balls in the air play with Buxton's speed to raise his BABiP? Buxton's BABiP is slightly down this year probably for two reasons...one, he's hitting the ball in the air more, specifically on the infield, and two, he's swinging earlier in the count (which is helping keep the K% down, but can lead to some softer contact as you try to cover the entire plate on almost every pitch you see). But I agree with the final conclusion in that I think Buxton is showing signs of more in the tank. But I think the primary drivers will be growth in BB% and also harder contact as he gets more confident with the new him.
  4. jkcarew
    Wander Javier is broke. To be expected, really, when you're 18, then don't play a game for two years, then are thrown into a higher level than when you last played. Kinda a testament to what the Twins think of Javier that they started him off in Cedar Rapids under those circumstances. Looks like that might have been a mistake, though. Meanwhile, Jaylin Davis. Hard to know what to make of his first 85 AAA PA's. The SLG is off the charts, but then again, it's the International League where the parks are pretty obviously too small for the juiced ball. Then again, he's kept a cap on the K% so far. Could we have another small college, low-ish draft pick, (relatively) late bloomer...Garver style...here? We can hope.
  5. jkcarew
    I remember watching games as far back as 1967, and it only bothers me when I hear/see someone use counting statistics (or averages/percentages) to make definitive (and usually stupid) statements comparing players across eras. (Btw...it works both ways. Sam Crawford might have been faster than Byron Buxton, but not because he hit way more triples.) The modern metrics that try to compare 'value' and/or performance relative to the contemporary replacement/average...are here to help with this, but still so many variables, so much room for argument and interpretation. I just try to enjoy the modern game for what it is. I see the juiced baseball as an attempt by MLB to mitigate the entertainment hit arising from the trend toward low numbers of ball in play. "If we're going to have fewer balls in play...we're going to make each one as entertaining as possible." But, like most things MLB tends to come up with, it makes things worse, rather than better. If it's easier to get the ball to carry over the fence...it increases incentive for marginal power guys to adopt HR-or-nothing approaches. So, do I think the juiced baseball is good...that it's better, or helps the quality of the game right now? No. But, I don't see it as a question of hurting the integrity of the game.
  6. jkcarew
    Horrible play by Buxton. If you tag there, you jog down the base-path a few feet to observe the flight of the ball. If it's airmailed in the direction of home, you break to 3rd in a 'delayed' fashion. You might be safe, but if you're out, the catcher (or a deep cutoff player) is the one throwing you out, and the run scores. If you want to be 'aggressive', that's how you do it on that play. With one out and the ball hit where it was and another runner tagging from 3rd, you never...under any circumstances...just put your head down and sprint as fast as you can to third and get yourself thrown out. Especially in a tight game where runs are hard to come by. That, obviously, made it an even stranger decision. Having said that, mistakes and weird stuff happen. The bigger problem recently has been the lack of consistency with the offense. It's probably a safe bet that, even with needed improvements, pitching overall for the Twins is going to be 'just ok'. The offense has to be better than that to continue the ride.
  7. jkcarew
    Wondering when the leg kick is going to go...still waiting. Even on his 35-hopper pulled through the whole, the leg kick seemed mis-timed and a hindrance, but quick hips and hands bailed him out. Meanwhile, he really does glide around out there...really smooth and athletic looking. Easy to see why he's a top prospect. We'll just have to wait a bit to see how the bat comes around.
  8. jkcarew
    You'd think, right? The Padres: 2 games out of the wild-card (Brewers, D-backs)...just took 3 of 4 from the Dodgers (something literally nobody has done)...Yates getting saves in all 3 wins...July opponents include Marlins, Mets, Giants, and Orioles...they just sank $300M into Machado...and they're actively shopping their highest-leverage bullpen arm who they control through next season, because, what...he's arbitration-eligible? I'd take Yates (though, I'd rather have Giles is we're choosing one). But, it's kind of an ice-cold bucket of reality right in the face for Padres fans.
  9. jkcarew
    You know what we need you to do, right?
  10. jkcarew
    Missed plenty of bats last night. Got the 3-run save vs White Sox. All three outs were K’s including Abreu to end it. Gave up two base-runners on a HBP and a walk. If nothing else, Maddon seems to have decided that he’s good with using Kimbrel in late/leverage already.
  11. jkcarew
    Cavaco has played sparingly. Been removed in the middle of games on two different occasions already...and has been MIA for several games since the last instance. Injured right out of the gate?
  12. jkcarew
    Took his time trying to decide, then took only one. Left the rest for the next guy.
  13. jkcarew
    Article refers to Berrios as ‘ace’. Twins are now 1-4 in the last 5 games started by their ace. There comes a time when a team is struggling, where the ace has to be better than good...or in today’s case, better than passable. Berrios certainly isn’t part of the problem...but, as our ace, he’s had a couple of opportunities recently to serve as the solution...and hasn’t done so.
  14. jkcarew
    I would have gone with "Twins Refuse to Win Two in a Row"
  15. jkcarew
    Agree he seems to be ok with the the K/SwStr numbers for now. It's the innings pitched number where he doesn't stack up so well (even relative to minor league/prospect starter standards)....and that's a mighty important number for starting prospects. At best, Graterol appears to be quite a ways away from showing ability or readiness for a major-league starter workload. Is it just me, or does anyone else see the parallels with Fernando Romero? Short, right-handed power pitchers who struggled in the minors to log innings and finish seasons. Graterol is a little further along at the same age as was Romero, but still, it sure seems he's trending towards reliever.
  16. jkcarew
    With a K% north of 40% and a .655 OPS vs right-handed pitching, we're not going to find out anytime soon.
  17. jkcarew
    Polanco. (I'm not a tweeter.)
  18. jkcarew
    I'll admit that watching the very top of this list, so far this year, has been a little like watching paint dry. But that's why I love the top-20 and the top-40 lists that the staff puts together. It's always easy to find several examples of guys over-performing to get excited about. To that end... Happy 25th birthday to Jaylin Davis! I love seeing guys like this...getting a little long in the tooth (prospect-wise)...taking significant steps, and starting to knock on the door of realizing their dream...if not with the Twins, maybe as a minor-league FA with another team, etc.
  19. jkcarew
    Patience continues to be warranted with Sano. You just don't give up on that kind of power without trying everything. I like Sano, but from the outside looking in, it doesn't seem like he's ever made adjustments. If he does, or if he can, he'll be very useful. If he can't, he won't. Maybe the last 1-2 weeks are a sign of something more than just getting some timing back? Maybe these are the early signs that he's learning how to make those adjustments? We'll see.
  20. jkcarew
    For 2-3 weeks now, the Twins are playing about like I thought they would heading into the year. Offense dangerous but inconsistent, defense good in the outfield, poor-to-fair in the infield, starting pitching fair-to-decent, bullpen poor-to-fair. (Also, the breaks have gone the other way recently, losing some close games that could have gone either way.) But, the first 65 games happened. I don't see the offense tanking...too many of the younger guys seem to have taken that next step, and the depth is better than anticipated. If the pitching bounces back and/or gets upgraded, I think the club's fine. Rocco's made some mistakes, but he's been aggressive and consistent with the rest/workload (and use of IL) for key pitchers and position players...we could see that pay off in the second half.
  21. jkcarew
    Has a replacement been named for the AS game? Or is the assumption that he'll be back and dressed for the AS game? I hate to deny Jake that experience...but I'd also kinda hate to see him miss a start for the Twins, so that he can heat up and pitch 1-2 innings in the AS game two days later.
  22. jkcarew
    Agreed. No matter how you cut it, Diaz's season is good news for him, and good news for the Twins.
  23. jkcarew
    FWIW, the ridiculous situation with international players being rule 5 eligible after their age 20 season means that it's not necessarily the case that other scouts don't see much...it just means you aren't going to put a guy on your 25-man roster when he's 20 and hasn't cleared A ball. I agree with Tom above. If Diaz finishes this season strong, he's a major risk to go (if not rostered) in rule 5 this time around, especially to a rebuilding American League team. To me, if the Twins don't think he's in their plans by 2021 (maybe he is)...it'd make some sense to see if he brings value to trade packages leading up to the deadline.
  24. jkcarew
    Exactly. Optimizing the human skeleton for sports performance is sure to sub-optimize it for injury prevention. I don't think that's likely to change. In this instance, the extra torque that comes from muscle and a big bottom-half is desirable (even necessary)...right up until the tendon is damaged. I think additional information can mitigate up to a point, but professional athletes are not going to be getting smaller any time soon.
  25. jkcarew
    Graterol slides down some for me. 5 years in and he’s on pace to having only one year with anything even close to 100 innings. He might be a regular member of a major league starting rotation some day...he’s just turning 21...but he’ll need to show real evidence that’s realistic at some point.
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