Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jkcarew

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,621

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    It's a question of timing, I would think. Spending money on a 3rd baseman simply isn't a priority for 2020 with all the holes in the pitching staff. However, at some point (even if Sano 'maintains' at 3B) you have to solve for first base. And if that solve is Sano, you'll need a 3rd baseman. And where is the upcoming 3rd-baseman in the system? Lewis? That's problematic. One, I'm pretty sure when you spent the first overall pick, you thought you were drafting a SS or a CF...at worse, a 2B. Secondly, and I know he's very young...but so far, there's been precious little to suggest he's going to be a legitimate 3B type bat at the major league level.
  2. jkcarew
    Huh? A 103 wRC+ is a 103 wRC+. It speaks for itself, and it accounts for Rosario's 32 home runs. But since you mentioned it...46 other guys hit at least 32 home runs last year...and a whole bunch of them were corner outfielders. Everyone hit home runs in 2019. In fact, Rosario's home run rate (HR/AB) was barely better than that of Jason Castro and Jonathan Schoop...and his OBP was basically the lowest on the team (lower than Schoop). So, no...those numbers aren't good...they're barely average for players that play his position. I don't hate Eddie. I do think he's a good RBI guy. You can't knock in runs if you don't swing the bat...and Eddie certainly does that. And he benefited in that regard from hitting immediately behind Kepler, Polanco, and Cruz all year long. And, as mentioned, I do think he was bothered by injuries in 2019. Maybe I should have also added that I don't think Rosario is a priority 'problem' to solve...Twins have bigger issues than left field, even at the level Rosario played in 2019. But the post asks people to weigh in on Eddie....and 2019 wasn't very pretty, IMO.
  3. jkcarew
    I wouldn’t call Rosario in 2019 “good”. His OPS+ was 106, his wRC+ 103...which for left fielders in the league is barely average. There were 31 left fielders in the majors with more than 200 PA that posted better wRC+ in 2019. There were a similar number of players that played significant time in LF that had better WAR. I do think he was bothered by injury...and I do think he is a better player than he showed in 2019. Not sure I’d extend him though. Depends on what they think of their developing corner outfield prospects. And, while including him in a package for pitching might make sense, the package would still need to include a top-end prospect to return a top end arm with any team control.
  4. jkcarew
    Polanco or Cruz. Cruz, probably. It’s not like Polanco or Kepler were needle-movers defensively...despite the artificial boost Kepler’s defensive metrics got from his time playing center. And while both had very good years offensively, neither were that close to Cruz’s level.
  5. jkcarew
    I think it'd be pretty easy to go through past Twins' rosters and confirm that this should be a non-factor in terms of precedent.
  6. jkcarew
    In the drafts from 2011-2015, Houston out-drafted the Twins by about 50 WAR. 50. In that stretch the Twins have about 30 WAR...all wrapped up in Buxton, Berrios, Rogers (all from 2012)...and Garver. Meanwhile, Houston drafted Springer, Correa, McCullers, Bregman, and guys like Ramon Laureano, who was about a 4-WAR player with the A's this year. Many of those years...especially 13-15...the Twins had very early picks and have nothing to show for it...with time running out. (If you go back another year, the Twins have Rosario to show...but the Astros out-drafted them in that draft as well, getting good players they traded for WS pieces like Evan Gattis and Ken Giles.) And regarding international signings...in the 12+ combined seasons of Sano, Polanco, and Kepler so far, they have a total of about 29 WAR. Just Altuve has about 39 WAR in his 8+ seasons. With every game one actually watches the Astros play, it's more and more obvious how far the Twins are from that organization. Basically, the Twins need to get more aggressive with trades...they have to get more aggressive with payroll....AND they have to have the prospects they keep hit, and hit BIG. That's basically what we're watching with Houston...still, they found a way to lose a playoff series last year, which is probably the good news.
  7. jkcarew
    I'll give you Cole, there. Not Verlander. His mid-career (injury-related) two-year lull was well over. He had posted over 7 WAR the year before he was traded...then 6.4 the year Houston acquired him....which is pretty much exactly what Houston has got from him since. While it would have been reasonable to expect some drop-off...everyone knew Houston was getting a top-end pitcher when that deal was made.
  8. jkcarew
    I'd take Wheeler in a heart-beat. Like others, don't think he's any more of an ace that Berrios, but I'd take him. What I like about him is his relative consistency in getting into at least the 7th inning. I might like Burgarner more in the shortest term...but do worry more about the miles on his arm relative to Wheeler, despite being only one year older. It'll be interesting to see how many years Bumgarner gets.
  9. jkcarew
    FWIW...looking at the clip of Lewis hitting the AFL all-star home run...I don't see anything different, either. On the other hand...is it the goal of any prospect these days to "hit for average"? Rhetorical. It's fascinating to see/hear the experts have conflicting opinions on the same guy. Thanks.
  10. jkcarew
    I want Maddon's PR guy...or maybe a personality transplant. I'm younger than Maddon, yet feel like I wage a constant uphill battle to stave off unfavorable perceptions (professional settings) related to age. Meanwhile, Maddon will be 66 next year, and the baseball community and media seem to treat him as if he's the most woke, innovative, due the game has to offer. Don't know what the deal is with that. I should probably run out to a Barns and Noble and see if they have a copy of his book.
  11. jkcarew
    Was Berrios 'bad' enough, and was Rogers good enough....that Rogers 69 innings were more valuable, or 'better,' than Berrios's 200+ innings? I'm with those that say no. Maybe some recency bias in light of how Berrios finished the year? While I feel the 2019 version of Berrios is not (ideally) what the Twins need as a number 1...he was still, by far, the most valuable starter, and probably the 'pitcher of the year'...primarily because he was the only guy that could consistently get into the 7th, and frequently the 8th, inning. The bullpen, including Rogers, probably would've been less effective if Berrios had averaged the 5.1 innings per start that was the norm for literally every other starter the Twins rolled out there this year.
  12. jkcarew
    Like others here, I think these names probably would work...they go in the middle of the rotation. But, we also need help at the top.
  13. jkcarew
    I understand the part article has a couple more parts, so I'll reserve judgement on the body when it is completed. In the meantime, this part deals with stuff on the margins. Smart philosophies and use of technology can't make average talent great...can't make 85-win talent beat (with any consistency) 95-win talent. Houston is Houston because they have better players. This, primarily because of how well they drafted (also great international signings) during the tanking years, and secondarily, because of their willingness to make trades. The stuff in this article, while it has value, is a relatively small factor in terms of impact on how good Houston is currently.
  14. jkcarew
    But if “showing fire” had anything to do with the first-round win...anything. At all. The solution for the second round should be pretty simple, right? Just show even more fire. Shildt must have forgotten to scream and shout after game one. Or...maybe he did, but it doesn’t work if the other team has Scherzer and Strasburg dealing.
  15. jkcarew
    Probably nothing. IMO, the crowd that is obsessed with the analytics angle is vulnerable to acts/thoughts/comments that border on age-discrimination (as though someone over 50 somehow can't understand math). But Valentin is younger than I thought...only 44...not sure he's of the generation that has been pigeon-holed in that manner. Still...IMO, it kind of looks odd to let him go after that season. (It also probably matters, a little anyway, whether he had a contract for 2020 or not.)
  16. jkcarew
    "What we saw take place in the Division Series round is complete pandemonium. We’re a Tampa Bay Rays victory over Gerrit Cole and the Houston Astros away from complete chaos in the Championship round. That’s not to suggest the Postseason is a complete crapshoot, but it absolutely solidifies the reality that nothing in October is certain. The Dodgers and Astros had no business facing a game five. They were on a collision course to meet in the World Series. Instead, here we are." Not really. Tampa Bay lost...they didn't come really close to winning game 5. Why? Because the other team had dominant starting pitching. Meanwhile...over the final 3/4 of the season, the Dodgers and Nationals had identical records (74-38). And the Nationals have 2 (and arguably 3) starting pitchers better than the Twins best. This doesn't add up to "pandemonium" or anything close. If your talent puts you at 25% odds to win a playoff series against a top opponent, what's your chances of winning a 4th series after having already lost 3? 25%. It's never even a decent position to be in if you want to get to the WS. Moral: if you want to get at least 7 wins in the post season (this year's "phenomenal" performance by Tampa Bay netted them 2 wins)...you have to have top-end talent...especially on the pitching side of things. Twins need to go out and get that. No matter how...develop (not looking promising), trade, sign.
  17. jkcarew
    Twins add 5 minor Leaguers to 40 man roster. Twins lose OF Luke Raley in Rule 5 draft. Twins Daily faithful fills 15 pages of comments that it's the worst thing ever to lose Luke Raley. (chuckle) I think it's most fun to poke fun both at the Twins and also at ourselves!
  18. jkcarew
    "The [braves] started some s---. We finished the s---," Shildt says in the video, which outfielder Randy Arozarena later acknowledged he streamed live on Instagram. "And that's how we roll. No one f---s with us ever. Now, I don't give a f--- who we play. We're gonna f--- them up. We're gonna take it right to them the whole f---ing way. We're gonna kick their f---ing ass." The Cards are 0-2 since this "inspiring speech"...including 0-2 at home....with about 5 total hits. But, OK.
  19. jkcarew
    "So here's to the moderator crew, we should thank them all..." This is exactly the type of ultra-controversial topic the mods have suggested we avoid.
  20. jkcarew
    Nice article. Don't you think 'hope' has been the standard here for a long time? Don't you think 2020 is going to be more about 'expectation'? I'm not sure hope is going to have much of a shelf life in heading into 2020 coming off a 101-win season.
  21. jkcarew
    Javier Valentin: The Red Wings led the IL in BA, were second in runs scored, and third in OPS; then there's the matter of how well-prepared call-up bats like Arraez, Cave, Wade were... If his dismissal has anything to do with "not fitting in" (nobody was stupid enough to utter anything like this, I assume) with the modern/analytical approach...he should sue the Twins for every penny he can. Although, he won't have trouble getting a new gig.
  22. jkcarew
    I would think we're looking at the tier below Cole...plus a trade or two. Seem unlikely you're going to fill all the wholes...with anything even on the fringes of "impact"...with just FA signings or just trades. Buried in the argument is the fact that the organization has been utterly horrible in identifying and developing top-end pitching in the system. Of course, not much of that is on the current administration...although, their track record for development isn't exactly off to a stellar start. Turning that around soon would probably also make an 'impact' for the current window...at least after 2020, one would hope.
  23. jkcarew
    Clearly? You're drawing that conclusion from him playing 10 games in the AFL...or from other things you've heard? Because, that seems a bold conclusion based on these 10 games...managed by someone not in the Twins organization. But, if you're right...I'm both excited and worried. I'm excited in any regard with the offensive showing in the AFL. Even though it's very sss...it's probably better than any other 15-game stretch Lewis had all season. But, kinda concerned that his offensive threshold for value just went up about two full notches if he's going to be a corner infielder instead of a short-stop (or even a CF). Really haven't seen a whole lot in his offensive game so far that suggest the bat plays as a major-league 3rd baseman...and late 2020 is coming fast.
  24. jkcarew
    Defense is not the key to solving run prevention problems. That would be pitching. The defense can help...it's secondary. The problem is primarily on the infield, and it starts at short-stop. It's likely to get worse before it gets better, as you will continue to play your best offensive players...and Arraez is a down-grade from Schoop. The guys that are there will simply need to play better. You're not going to put a glove that OPS's .700 at short, third, or second...when you have guys there that OPS .850-.900+ And Crom was not a problem defensively. Although, if the Twins see someone available that they think can hit more at first than Crom...or someone that would be a legitimate corner bat at third...I could see them either going a different direction at first, or moving Sano.
  25. jkcarew
    I don't agree with everything in the original post (mostly, I think the Twins are still materially inferior in talent...that the talent gap between the Twins and the top 3-4 teams is still 'too' large to get through multiple playoff rounds with a realistic chance). But this is a great and super-relevant topic, IMO. But, I totally agree with the premise that you need leaders and stars. And this type of star isn't defined (solely) by WAR. This star has that gene that can ignore the extreme small-sample pressure and other external swirl that defines the playoffs...that has the gene that truly to the core of their being embraces/enjoys it. The unnerving part of this is you don't know if you have those guys...until you have them. You're just kind of hoping you have them.
×
×
  • Create New...