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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Nor would I. Nor would I be pleased if the assumption is that minor-league options such as Raley, Rooker...or even Kirilloff/Larnach ...would be ready to produce offensively in the majors, in a pennant-race year, and at that position.
  2. jkcarew
    Madison Bumgarner had essentially the same season that Zack Wheeler had last year. MadBum with a few more innings pitched, a better WHIP, essentially the same K/9...and a slightly lower ERA+. MadBum is less that 10 months older than Wheeler. I get the extra 'mileage'..theoretically. Still, less than 10 months older. Talk up Wheeler, and swoop in and get MadBum on friendlier terms! (I'm fine with at least one of MadBum, Ryu, or Wheeler.)
  3. jkcarew
    I guess we'll find out to what extent some teams are willing to take the tanking concept. Selecting Javier...and keeping him on a major-league roster for the entire year...would take it to a new level, IMO.
  4. jkcarew
    Beyond Rendon, the only one worth moving Sano to 1B and 'replacing' Cron in the line-up would be Donaldson in a short, win-now move. But since pitching is more pressing than replacing Cron, I'd expect that Sano stays at 3B until a more obvious candidate to replace him there comes along. Having said that, I do find it problematic that the Twins seem to have zero prospects (based on current positions and performance) likely to provide offensive value at that position in the majors any time soon. Maybe Blankenhorn emerges as kind of a late-bloomer?
  5. jkcarew
    If Gibson is able to manage his health issues with more information/experience concerning how his body works...get back to a point of sustainable strength/endurance...he'll be well worth this deal. That's the Ranger's bet. In any case, I'm happy for Gibby. Frequently drove me nuts, but had long stretches of 'goodness', seemed to work hard, and seemed consistently positive, not an excuse-maker and a good teammate (as far as can be observed by us outsiders). Good luck to him!
  6. jkcarew
    This story continues. Interesting. It seems to point to general admiration for Falvey/Levine. It's not like these coaches have accomplished much at this point....weren't very good against competing teams, and won a historically horrible division with mediocre pitching, bad defense, and lots of home runs. Then got blown away by a team that got beat by a team that got beat by a team in the post-season. Yet, competing front offices apparently feel the organization is one worth tapping into. I hope that proves to be the case in the long-term. And good luck to those that got their opportunities!
  7. jkcarew
    True. So...would I be upset if they spent that on Wheeler? No, hard to be upset when it would make them better in 2020, and the only alternative was to do less or do nothing. Still, based on how much better Wheeler makes them for that cost, I wouldn't be very optimistic that that contract would end up being worth it. If nothing else it highlights what a horrible position the organization has carved for itself with regard to starting pitching. Bad drafts, bad development, bad luck, bad trades...or unwillingness to make trades. Now you're forced to consider making deals like this.
  8. jkcarew
    Giving 30 year-old Zack Wheeler 5-6 years and, say, somewhere between M$110 - 140? Meanwhile, well inside the window of that contract, you need to pay (or not) Buxton, Sano, Berrios, even Garver, plus some number of other starting pitchers through free agency. I mean, if we're going to change 60 years of franchise history and bet big on a short-term window...I'd wish for an opportunity to go way big and get more of a needle-mover than Zack Wheeler.
  9. jkcarew
    I'd guess Rijo has more future value than Raley? But you think you can sneak Rijo through, while you don't think you can sneak Raley through just based on age and stage of development. Problem is, I'm not sure why you care that much if Raley is claimed. I guess if you think he has non-zero trade value. I would have gone the other way. It's seems that teams will be more willing to reach for a guy like Rijo with the extra roster spot. Like protecting Blankenhorn. Infield corner bat with pop...not something we have a ton of in the system. Doesn't bother me that Jax wasn't protected. I'd guess he get's claimed, but wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't, either. Can't imagine anyone taking Javier. K'd in 34% of PA at low A last year at age 20. I guess we'll see how far teams will go in this age of tanking.
  10. jkcarew
    Many of the arguments for not trading Kepler...he's better than Rosario, he's got a team-friendly contract, he can play center field, he's coming off a career year...These are all reasons Kepler would provide more/better pitching in a trade. Having said that, given Buxton's history, and Rosario's inconsistency...you can only trade Kepler at this particular point in time if you LOVE you some Alex Kirilloff...and probably some Brent Rooker for that matter. I don't think you can love either quite that much...not yet, anyway.
  11. jkcarew
    This is a cost-saving move. It's contraction. Has nothing to do with facilities other than facilities can/will be a criteria against which the contraction is executed. Having said that, this was absolutely inevitable. It was going to be hard enough for MLB to continue subsidizing minor-league ball even in their traditional manner. Any political momentum for MLB to increase expenditures on minor-league players was only going to hasten this move. It's sad, and I don't like it...I think it means less organized baseball is played across America (for now, only marginally less). But, it's unclear to me how much actual damage this does to the game in the long-run.
  12. jkcarew
    Agree...don't think this will have much impact at all on average game length. The biggest opportunity, by far, is figuring out how 300+ pitches can be delivered in less time. Although, I'd like to see some thought/discussion...even trials...go toward figuring out how 9-inning games can average something less than 300 pitches, as well. But, that's a tougher solve...with a relatively small (vs time between pitches) payoff.
  13. jkcarew
    So, you're projecting a major-league catching career for him...but he's outside your top 30? If he were to project as a plus-defense, weak-bat no 2 catcher...I'd have him ranked between 10 and 20...certainly inside the top 30. IMO, a ranking outside the Twins top 30 is justified only if you feel he won't meet that standard. (Last year...catching the same pitchers...Rortvedt threw out over 50% of base-stealers...to Jeffers 26%. IMO, there's as much risk that Jeffers won't catch in the majors as there is that Rortvedt won't hit...and I'd have Rortvedt ranked at least in the general hailing distance of Jeffers.)
  14. jkcarew
    Don't think I agree with this. Cruz was 4th in all of baseball last year in wRC+. Better than Cody Bellinger, better than Anthony Rondon. If you were to expand Garver's at-bats, you will increase his percentage of at-bats vs right-handed pitching. He was good against right-handed pitching in 2019, but not nearly as good as Cruz was. Meanwhile, Cruz has a minuscule trade market given his salary and years (one) remaining. It's basically limited to very serious contenders that don't have a legitimate DH. In other words, you're not going to get reciprocating value in return.
  15. jkcarew
    The fact that there is, in fact, no way to enforce sign-stealing (of the non-electronic variety) is precisely why the teams are responsible to change/improve/conceal methods of delivering signs. Also, I think stealing pitch signs is over-rated. For instance, there's current internet chatter about 'forgiving' Darvish for his performance in the 2017 WS coming off this news. Except, Darvish got hammered in game 7...at Dodger stadium. Even when signs are being stolen, there's seldom opportunity where the batter can be 100% sure the signs haven't been changed since the last mound visit or last half-inning. And you still don't know the location. Meanwhile, great hitters can guess speed and location with a pretty high degree of accuracy, without stealing signs. Many have even said they don't want the information, feeling it will just screw them up when, inevitably sooner or later, it will be wrong. Having said that, using center-field cameras should be enforceable, and should not go unpunished, IMO. Note: it's my understanding that this can't be accomplish via center-field broadcast images due to the several second time-delay for broadcasts. Have to deploy a closed-circuit system.
  16. jkcarew
    I acknowledge that the plan is well-reasoned...and 'responsible' in terms of long term flexibility. But, how does it make you better in 2020...for the window that's in front of them? You now have an unproven commodity in left field, and another at first base (or third base), while your pitching should be better, but not great by any means. Agree that you try to extend Buxton...only because he's the obvious buy-low opportunity. Would be shocked (and disturbed, in an odd way) if his camp caved and didn't make a bet on him becoming a legitimate star.
  17. jkcarew
    If the Twins were to (very hypothetically ) splurge on any position other than pitcher...I'd be ok it being 3rd-base. Doesn't seem like any needle-moving options currently in the organization once Sano moves. And I love Rendon. Having said that, I do think his AAV will equal/exceed Machado's...meaning north of $30M. And since Machado was 3 years younger than Rendon will be, and Machado got 10 years...I think Rendon will get 7-8. So, would I do that? Probably not. Also, Gordon doesn't make us better in left field. Although, if Rosario helped return Jon Gray, it would probably be a net win. Gordon is most decidedly NOT an above-average fielder at this point. His most recent GG was won, as they often are, by reputation alone...and would probably be exhibit A in how meaningless that award is. He's a 36-year old outfielder...that can't hit.
  18. jkcarew
    I like the concept of #1. Go for it in 2020...and the outfield cavalry (Kiriloff, etc) is coming for 2021. It would be bold to say the least. And it could work. But.. ...you only addressed a relatively small portion of your pitching issues...meanwhile, you've created a second hole on the infield. And you've tied up a huge portion of available capital in doing so. To me, if you're going to do something as risky as this, it needs to directly address the biggest opportunity. And for the Twins, that's not an outfielder (even assuming Rosario can't improve on 2019), and it's not a number 2 or 3 starter...it's a stud at the top of the rotation. Does that mean you do nothing if that deal is not there? No. But it also doesn't mean you should feel the need to make a similarly huge/risky move where the payoff wouldn't be the same. That's what this deal would feel like to me.
  19. jkcarew
    Being number #1 in any time slot is worth less today than ever...and it will be worth even less tomorrow. And even in that context, 'growth' in ratings isn't much of a sign of long-term strength if the growth is coming disproportionately from 40+ year-olds that are avoiding the ballparks. Likewise, if attendance growth is dependent upon new ball-parks (which, historically have been subsidized by 'fans')...well, that's not sustainable either. You are consistently less pessimistic that most here regarding the health of the game. That's not a bad thing, and I hope you're right. I do agree that nothing terribly disruptive is imminent until those TV contracts start shrinking, or at least stop growing at their historical rates. But IMO, there are signs that that's coming.
  20. jkcarew
    Don't see how this (Ahmed) makes you better. Makes you better defensively, and worse offensively. The way the game is played now, offense is a must-have...infield defense is a nice-to-have. If you're trading prospect capital on anything other than pitching right now (and not sure why you would)...you'd be better off just getting a 1st or 3rd baseman who can rake. And literally any SS in major league baseball is a more likely trade candidate than Lindor. Just say'in.
  21. jkcarew
    I can see scenarios where it would make sense to extend every one of these guys... Maybe you trade (or plan on trying to trade) multiple outfield prospects; maybe you believe Sano/Buxton have what it takes to solve their lingering challenges, etc., etc. Of course, it won't play out that way. Among other things, it depends on what the player wants to do. And it's always worth remembering that extending any of these guys on anything close to reasonable terms (say, if you're not high on Rosario at this point) doesn't preclude trading them later...it could even help along those lines.
  22. jkcarew
    I'd like to see him hit at least like a good outfield prospect at the AA/AAA level before I'd even consider him as a regular first-baseman at the major-league level. Wouldn't think we'd see him before the end of the year unless he's mashing...AND at least one of Kepler/Buxton/Rosario are injured or gone. To me, he's either in your plans as a starter in 2021...or you trade him between now and next season's deadline.
  23. jkcarew
    Guaranteed to be unintended consequences. Still, might be the right move...we'll see how the tests play out. But, it's way down the list in priority of things that need to be tweaked, IMO.
  24. jkcarew
    Last we heard of Gonsalves, Wes Johnson was on a mission to add 2-3 MPH to his fastball. Within two weeks of those reports, the elbow fails. Then he’s cut loose. Hope he’s healthy. If so, my guess is the Mets have him focus on what the bigger issue was. That being his command and getting the ball anywhere close to where he wanted it.
  25. jkcarew
    It’s easy to imagine Graterol beginning the season in the rotation. But, if he does...it’s all but impossible to envision him finishing the season in the rotation, unless he’s shut down for an extended stretch. That’s the catch. If you want to ‘count’ Graterol as a starter in 2020, the best you can hope for is about 3/4 of a starter...probably something more like 2/3. Still, that might be the call to make if you feel he’s a starter in the long run. But, if so, I would want the FO to consider him a number 5 (ish) option at least for 2020...and invest on the top and middle accordingly.
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