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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Agree. Several things could contribute to a "successful" 2020 (e.g., healthy breakout years from both Buxton and Sano)...that would have nothing to do with off-season moves the FO made. Weak is a fairly kind term to use to describe the argument in the article. The FO had an obvious goal, and hasn't been able to achieve it (so far). If in 2020 Buxton finishes 2nd in the MVP voting and Sano hits 59 home runs, that doesn't change the fact that the FO failed (again, so far)...on the completely obvious to everyone goal of landing a needle-mover for the front-end of the rotation. Still need another corner infielder, as well.
  2. jkcarew
    If Falvey and Levine had not earlier acknowledged that the club needed (and deserved) impact pitching this off-season...that would have made them disingenuous...or stupid. That fact that they did acknowledge it, but didn't execute it...means that they failed. Might work out fine in the long run. Anything might. But they failed. (At least so far.) IMO, any argument that the Twins have not failed this off-season begins and ends with "what have they done to close the gap between themselves and the top of the AL". And a compelling argument for same does NOT include "odd that so much resentment has come the way of the Twins front office after winning over 100 games in 2019". What did the 101 wins in the 2019 AL central get you, again?
  3. jkcarew
    The pattern of the organization signing Cuban stars is clearly established. We just need to hope Oscar asks his great-grandfather where he should sign.
  4. jkcarew
    "This same think tank may have seen the breakout of Anibal Sanchez coming, and this is an opportunity for them to execute fully on a similar scenario." Huh? I guess we'll know for sure that Bailey is breaking through if our 'think tank' releases him in March. Look, Bailey represents one of a handful of things the Twins FO needed to do this off-season. Most of the other things, they haven't been able to execute on yet. This one they did. So, we've got a guy that MIGHT be good enough to replace an unhealthy and under-performing Gibson. So, we've got that going for us. Which is...meh.
  5. jkcarew
    But the objective is not simply to 'find' someone that can handle the 3rd-base (or first-base) role defensively. The objective is to construct a roster with the best possible lineup options, day in and day out. And to do that you want... a: corner infielders that can hit like corner infielders b: competent utility player (or players) available on a daily basis Inserting Gonzalez as the every-day third-baseman fails on both accounts.
  6. jkcarew
    I'm not much of an expert on civil law. Is there such thing as a 'reverse' class-action suit? If so, I need to sue about 100,000 guys for ruining my professional baseball career back in the early 80's.
  7. jkcarew
    Yes, but... It would certainly feel different, right? Knoblauch was coming in to play 2nd base for a team that had finished last in the division the prior year. Kirilloff would be coming in to play for a team that has the weight of very high expectations...and plunked into a spot where league-average offense hurts the team. LOTS of pressure on Kirilloff if handed the first-base job early in 2020.
  8. jkcarew
    "Should Miguel Sano Play 3B or 1B in 2020?" Yes. (copywright, Chief)
  9. jkcarew
    Probably one of the most exciting things about Sano is that there remains obvious opportunity for improvement...and from a base-line that is already very useful. Here's hoping there continues to be improvement in 2020!
  10. jkcarew
    Are there actual tangible reasons people think Bryant is not going to be good-to-great? His awful year was an OPS+ of 121. He just turned 28, the organization doesn't have an obvious or imminent alternative at 3rd base (other than Sano), or 1st base...and Bryant even comes with some defensive flexibility. Having said that, 2 years of Bryant (it will be two) for top prospects vs. 4 years of Josh Donaldson for $25M+ per year? It's a good question. I'd rather have Bryant...but I guess it would depend on the cost for me to compare against the $110M that seems to be established for JD.
  11. jkcarew
    "Things that are factored into these rankings: production, age, upside, pedigree, health, length of team control, favorability of contract, positional scarcity (within the system, and generally)." So, in the end...trade value. That's the context in which this ranking makes sense.
  12. jkcarew
    First, two questions.... How would you ever justify trading a prospect? Did you steal this list from the Twins FO? Good idea, but the exercise seems a bit ambiguous without a time-frame around the championship you are 'visioning'. Is a championship in 2025 worth more than a championship in 2020? By this list, it would appear so. Are two likely years of championship competition in 2020-2021 worth as much as three or four hypothetical years of competition in 2024-2027? Not by this ranking. Does Sano's standing (for instance) predict an unlikelihood that he has an extended tenure with the Twins? Apparently so. In short, I think the list is severely biased toward unrealistically rosey projections for a big group of prospects. It's next to impossible that this number of prospects prove to be BOTH this good AND retained by the Twins for 'extended' contributions to championship windows.
  13. jkcarew
    "Despite a career best OPS last season, Kepler actually posted a negative BABIP. With a .252 average, his .244 BABIP ranked 97th of 98 qualified hitters (min 500 PA) in 2019." Sigh. We still have writers/posters who insinuate that batter BABiP will trend to league average. No. Max Kepler's career BABiP is .253. That's over 2229 plate appearances, now. Christian Yelich's BABiP is .358 across more than 4000 PA. This article would have been more interesting to me if it had explored what in Kepler's approach/development could potentially close THAT gap between himself and Yelich. Because it's not more pulling and launching. And it's not bad luck.
  14. jkcarew
    Nobody knows what the minimum Twins bid would have been to land JD...or what was/is going on inside JD's head. Not me, not you, not Doogie. What is clear...the FO has failed this off-season (so far). They've failed by their own stated expectation, and also by any objective measure. They've come off a season where they won the AL by 8 games, then got reminded that postseason teams are seriously good. They had chances to get significantly better, and they didn't. So, failure. Doesn't mater how/why. At least to me it doesn't. To me what's next it what Twins fans should be accustomed to....hope...albeit hope from a funner vantage point. The club should be able to win a bunch of games and compete in the central. But, for realistic postseason expectations...it seems we're left hoping still. Hoping for another level from the core, an immediate upside surprise from a prospect or two, and Berrios making that leap to a shut-down stud.
  15. jkcarew
    All of this makes sense...if both your short-term and long-term goal is to win the AL central. The only reason Cleveland was willing to 'gamble' on Clevinger in 2017 is that they already had Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Josh Tomlin in the rotation. Not much of a gamble for a team in their competitive window...and not exactly analogous to the Twins situation headed into 2020. Also, worth noting that even with that staff, Cleveland failed to win even one playoff series in either 2017 or 2018...going 2-6. The fact is, the Twins need better starting pitching if they want to win in the post-season. A LOT better starting pitching.
  16. jkcarew
    So, in summation... When a prospect did great under the old regime (Buxton), it was an indication of the old regime's ignorance...and that prospect was destined to fail. And when a prospect struggles under the new regime (Lewis), it's an indication of the new regime's wisdom....and that prospect is destined to succeed. (tongue only slightly in cheek)
  17. jkcarew
    If there was ever a situation to 'force' an off-season trade, the Twins are smack dab in the middle of it right now. They already have, not one...but two...starters that will join the staff in the middle of the year. Meanwhile, you're expected to contend, but may have two teams capable of challenging in the division...and you have holes in your starting staff for huge chunks of games in the first third/half of the year.
  18. jkcarew
    But why would you assume $120 would get the job done? If Atlanta gets the last opportunity to match, it's a 100% guarantee that he WANTS to go to Atlanta. Atlanta doesn't have to "match" the $120 to get him. If the scenario is as you describe in the article, an offer of $120 is only likely to get Donaldson about $10 million more from the team he wants to play for. After all, that's less than "what amounts to a relief arm" over the length of the contract. The Twins would get better results if they first convinced Donaldson (by words and actions...things like acquiring a stud pitcher usually qualify) that he wants to play for the Twins....and then offering him $110.
  19. jkcarew
    I don't think Thorpe has a particular problem with his pitches not playing against righties (vs lefties). At least in 2019, both righties and lefties crushed him in the majors...and neither righties or lefties crushed him at Rochester. To me, he simply lacks major-league command. Young guys without command typically fall into two categories...those afraid to throw the ball over the plate; and those that get crushed when they throw the ball over the plate. Thorpe had periods of both, but mainly fell into the latter category. Give Thorpe Smeltzer's command, and we'll have something. And BABiP regression should help a bit.
  20. jkcarew
    Interesting proposals. Honestly feel that the Archer deal is the LEAST likely to be made by the trade partner. And, even at just two years of Archer, a no-brainer if you're the Twins. Find it interesting that these options seem to go out of their way to protect Lewis. I see Graterol and Kirilloff, but no Lewis. Plenty of risk remains with Lewis's projections...offensively and defensively. The Twins should be willing to include him in some of these offers.
  21. jkcarew
    I agree with some earlier posts.... This potential Donaldson deal should be evaluated against the other options available to fill the hole in the lineup vacated by Cron. Not hypothetical pitcher scenarios. The Twins need either a major-league first baseman (or a major league third baseman if they decide to move Sano over). So....Donaldson for 4 and 108 (etc.)....or Moreland? Thames? One of the current utility guys?? Rooker??? Unless, of course, you really believe that the Twins going small for the corner infielder (e.g., utility guy, Moreland) means that they WILL go big on a pitcher's contract in a trade. And I feel sorry for you if you believe that.
  22. jkcarew
    The break even success rate for stolen bases is approaching 75% for teams with power....and is easily into the 70's league-wide. . Break Even Rate = 0.590 + (3.33 x (HR/PA)) source: Fangraphs So, one CS erases the value of 3 successful attempts. That significantly mitigates the value of even Buxton's 82% (2019) success rate. It's also why nobody else on the club attempts stolen bases at all...to speak of. For scoring runs and winning games...especially in the modern HR-dominated game, OBP trumps every other metric by light-years in that spot. I'm guessing Rocco will be willing to put Arraez there more now that he's into his second year at the MLB level?
  23. jkcarew
    The 2014 Giants? They were basically the same team that had already won two world series. Meanwhile, the 2006 Cardinals had to deal with only one team in the NL field that year that won even 90 games. The 2019 Twins were dominated by a team that was handled by a team, that was handled by another team. Not even in the universe of realistically winning anything of significance in the 2019 post-season. (Also, had a losing record against +500 teams.) The Twins need to get significantly better to have a realistic shot. "Get to the playoffs and anything can happen" might be a legitimate strategy for teams in two or three of the divisions in MLB...but it's been fools gold for the Twins. The Twins haven't been unlucky in every single playoff appearance since 2000. They haven't been good enough.
  24. jkcarew
    You probably have 3 moves you 'need' to make before the season starts... Get a starter to 'replace' Gibson Get a starter for the front of the rotation Get someone worthy of being an every-day 1st or 3rd baseman for a contender This gets the first of these three things done...the one that moves the needle the least. What's the chances both of the next two get done? I wouldn't bet on it. Or if I were to make that bet, I feel like it would be a wager influenced by my heart, not my head. IMO, Hill is the FO's idea of insurance against having to make a deadline deal for starting help. In fact, in the unlikely (at least I hope it's unlikely) event an implosion/big injuries, etc. has happened and the Twins are out of it at the deadline...I could see Hill never throwing a pitch for the Twins....or just enough pitches to prove his health. His cost could be artificially high at the 2020 deadline...left-handed, experienced/good reputation,...fresh, with a well-timed return to health.
  25. jkcarew
    I agree that Chicago is going to be improving significantly and rapidly. But, here's a contrarian take: if the Twins organization measures themselves against their ability to compete in the AL Central...which is apparently the case...then the sooner the White Sox are a truly elite team, the better. 'Winning' a division so weak that totally dominating it makes you about the 8th or 9th best team in the majors does nothing for me. And being 'stuck' at that level gives you no chance to do anything meaningful in the post-season.
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