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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Not sure there's much difference between Pineda and Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe (despite Thorpe's small-sample 2019 results). Don't think not having Pineda in the first quarter of the season will make a material difference. And, who knows what the Twins will get from Hill (hopefully, we can find out before the trade deadline). The difference that matters is the (still hypothetical) guy that can start game 1/2 of a 5-game playoff series with a real and good chance of controlling a stud lineup for 6 or more innings. And chances remain decent, that that guy won't be needed to finish ahead of Cleveland and Chicago. Risky, but probably still true in the 2020 AL Central.
  2. jkcarew
    MLB Trade Rumors run amuck. Reds clearly in win-now mode and shaking trees with arguably their most valuable trade asset in a position of depth. Looking for another major league piece and aren’t going to unload Senzel unless it’s part of a deal that returns something well established, if not a star.
  3. jkcarew
    Rocco will tweak a bit for left-handed starters...especially high-end lefties. Also beyond 'rest-days', we know going into the season that Avila will start about 60 games or so...a third of the games, or slightly more.
  4. jkcarew
    _ _it!! If there's anything I hate more than having my bubble burst...it's having my bubble burst with a bunch of well-researched facts. But, yeah. Very nice article.
  5. jkcarew
    Every bit the 'what if' story that Mauer was, IMO. Congrats!
  6. jkcarew
    The good news with Gordon is that he actually had a bit of a bounce-back year last year...much, much improvement in his second look at AAA at age 23. Although, OPS of 801 still slightly below Rochester's inflated team average. But, played a lot of SS still. Far from done...but it's pretty easy to see why most think the ceiling has been lowered significantly. The good news is that it doesn't seem the floor has lowered much...which could turn out to be useful for the Twins (or wherever he ends up in next couple of years).
  7. jkcarew
    I think it's "athleticism" (non-pitchers) and how that might project in terms of defensive premiums and extra-base potential...not necessarily the 'talent' or 'baseball skill' that the player actually demonstrates at the point of evaluation. You hinted as much with comment on Kirilloff's 'discount' for corner position. Nobody thought Nick Gordon had a better hit tool than Alex Kirilloff, yet Gordon was drafted 5th overall to Kirilloff's 15th. Nobody was raving about Royce Lewis's hit tool when he was drafted #1 overall. IMO, it could be easily argued that many scouts and people who publish projections are influenced too much by athleticism given how dominant the 'hit' tool is in generating actual value. Nevertheless, for this reason, it will take longer for Lewis to sink on these lists than it would for Gordon (elite athlete vs very good)...and Kirilloff, IMO, would sink like a stone...just as fast or faster than Gordon...the second it looks like he won't hit. (All hypothetical...hopefully ) My two cents. Interesting discussion.
  8. jkcarew
    Good article. Still need to have good fortune/health...but agree that the floor for the 2020 club would seem to be very high by Twins historical standards. Would actually like to see slightly 'less' depth after the trade deadline
  9. jkcarew
    Don't get some of the comments regarding Cave. He's a fourth outfielder. He catches the ball when it's hit to him and he has a 111 career OPS+...last year he was 112. Meanwhile, we think Buxton is about to become Willie Mays...his OPS+ last year was 114. Likewise with LaMonte Wade. Beside the fact that his SLG is exceptionally poor...there were 7 guys at Rochester last year that had better OBP than he did. One of those was...you guessed it...Cave. Meanwhile, they're both left-handed and can't play center field. I can only chalk it up to the eternal desire for something new/different. IMO, if not Cave...then someone like Dyson who can be a defensive substitution late in games, and play a legitimate center field once a week or so.
  10. jkcarew
    When Escobar tells his grand-kids that he hit 35 home runs in the major leagues in 2019, he probably won't mention that Danny Santana hit 28. Danny Santana's career HR% going into 2019:----- 1.1% (13 in 1165 PA) Danny Santana's HR% in 2019: -----5.5% (28 in 511 PA)
  11. jkcarew
    Throw out 2018. Compare 2017, his 'promising' year, to last season. Significantly lower K%. Very Good. Same OBP, modestly improved BA, same HR%...way higher SLG. How is that possible? His BB% actually slipped a little. His BABiP slipped significantly with all the pulling and launching (more pull-happy than ever in 2019). But doubles. Lots and lots of doubles. Buxton's career doubles rate going into last year...just over 4%. Last year, easily over 10%...highest in baseball among players with 250+ PA. Only player in that category with more doubles than singles...no player you've ever heard of even close. Probably not sustainable for long. The good news is that he can eventually translate the improved ability to barrel to more HR's...along with a good number of doubles/triples. Meanwhile, it would be great if he could use right and right center more...would really help that BA/BABiP, IMO.
  12. jkcarew
    "While ZiPS still sees Royce Lewis ending up with more career WAR than Nick Gordon, that gap is much narrower than scouts’ perceptions of the two middle infielders would suggest." (blink)
  13. jkcarew
    Can't speak for others, but I'm not crazy about moving any of the top arms, including Duran. We need arms, and we'll need them soon (pending new trades/signings, we'll be short again in 2021). To the extent the Twins are motivated to make a big move, they should still be making that move from an area of organizational depth, not weakness. Of course, a team like the Mets might demand a young arm be included in a deal for Thor (as an example), but that certainly wouldn't be my going-in position if I were the Twins. First-basemen, corner outfielders...even short-stops, we got. Pitching...not so much.
  14. jkcarew
    Rooker didn't play one inning of first-base last year. I think the point on the Diaz trade still holds...but, fwiw, Rooker is probably more likely to appear on outfield prospect lists still.
  15. jkcarew
    I get the point on the trade, and agree. But, I have no problem with Kirilloff spending another year in the minors. He wasn't very healthy last year, and unless some guys get injured or fall off a performance cliff in 2020, he won't be needed this season. Let him get back to raking in the minors, which he didn't do last year. Late season call-up and 2021 arrival is fine with me...but yes, if the Twins don't see that scenario, they probably should be trading him real soon.
  16. jkcarew
    Moncada, Jimenez, Giolito, Robert...don't forget Kopech who dominated AAA as a 22-year old in 2018. All these guys are younger than any 2020 Twins contributor figures to be with the exceptions of Arraez and Graterol. Maybe not this year...but they're coming. Nice article.
  17. jkcarew
    There's zero evidence Kirilloff was every anything more than a fall-back option at first-base for 2020. It's not like his bat was knocking on the door last year...it wasn't...or even like he's ever been primarily a first-baseman in the minors. Meahwhile, the organization had Rooker and Larnach play a grand total of zero innings at first base in 2019. So what were these guys going to do for the 2020 Twins prior to the JD signing? Not going to DH, not going to be given bench roles...why would any prospects be given bench roles before they're out of options...let alone before they've even needed to be rostered? All of these guys figured to be depth options in 2020...options to be called up if there were injuries or catastrophic performance issues...which is exactly what they remain post JD signing. Longer-term, there's a chance this makes the outfield even more crowded...but then, you might have Rosario leaving, you might have Sano at DH instead of first, you might have made some trades, you might have long-term injuries, etc., etc., etc.
  18. jkcarew
    If you're talking about the "“two high-end prospects just to front the deal" part of this...yes, laughable. Clearly, Boston will consider Betts' expiring contract as kind of a last-chance opportunity to get themselves out from under Price's deal. The unrealistically high opening price is obligatory. But humorous nonetheless.
  19. jkcarew
    Not enough concern here with losing Balazovic, IMO. Even when you have the window, you should be trying to steer away from dealing from the very top of an area of obvious organizational weakness. If the partner wants arguably our top starting pitching prospect (easy to argue right now, given Graterol's current status)...for one year of Mookie Betts...no thanks. Much more willing to consider if we're talking about our top one or two position/hitting prospects. Hitters we got.
  20. jkcarew
    Somehow there is the impression that "innings limits" is what got Graterol into the predicament he's in. And that simply "stretching him out" is the solution. No. Last year, the organization was more than willing to stretch Graterol out. But he broke down...just like he did the year before, except even earlier. It's simply not wise...not realistic to think you're getting much more than 100 innings out of Graterol...regardless of what you "want" him to be. So...how best to use the 100 innings this year...that's the question. Starting?...maybe get him to 120 innings?..some of which undoubtedly would be in the minors? That could be very useful in the first-half of the year, to be sure. Or put him in the mlb bullpen, maybe 'open' him a few times, and worry about the possibilities of converting him to a starter in a theoretical future year? Given the current window/opportunity, it's hard to argue with a plan that makes those innings available to the major-league club throughout the year...and maximizes the likelihood that they're available in the post-season, as well.
  21. jkcarew
    The only practical alternative would have been to have him start until Pineda returns, shut him down, and bring him back in September. And that’s probably not very realistic either. Theoretically at least, as a reliever he can be available for the entire year. We’ll see.
  22. jkcarew
    Things I'd like to see, but never will... Donaldson hits home run. As he rounds the bases... Video board: clip of excited Dustin Hoffman as Rain Man: "Oh-oh! Oh-oh!" Does Donaldson strike me as a guy that would appreciate the bit going in that direction? I don't think so. No, definitely not. Definitely not.
  23. jkcarew
    If anything, the ‘inefficiency’ is the incredibly horrible job of drafting and developing pitching that goes back several years now. Once enough bats arrived to produce a competitive club, this regime has been forced to get creative in putting a pitching staff together...especially given the financial parameters they are required to work with.
  24. jkcarew
    Sometimes the defensive metrics are ridiculously misleading. Sometimes they tell you what you already know. At first glance, OAA seems to fall into the latter category.
  25. jkcarew
    Are we sure he hasn't changed his mind based on the weather, endorsement opportunities, mid-western lifestyle, uniforms, ownership penchant for cheapness, FO robbing Buxton of service time, horrific state income taxes, lack of ace at top of rotation, Rosario's unwillingness to give up jersey number 20, recent playoff history...wanting another $10M to compensate for all of the above? 100% sure?
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