Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jkcarew

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,621

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I'd want to consider having Graterol start (or 'primary') until Pineda is up to speed. Then...somehow...figure out how Graterol could also be healthy/available for a bullpen and spot starting role down the stretch and into the post-season. Undoubtedly, that plan would include severely restricting his innings through the middle months of the season....or even more likely, shutting him down in that time-frame. But then again, Graterol has been shut down at some point during every single season of his professional career. The best choice for ensuring that he's available for the entire season and post-season is the bullpen. For that reason, I'd be ok with that being the going-in plan for 2020. But, these options kinda make me think that the Twins could use another quality starter.
  2. jkcarew
    Thanks. The rankings are interesting. Obviously, the Twins have taken the approach that they'll 'participate' in free agency along the same general lines that the Clevelands, Oaklands, and Tampa Bays will. It only works if you're good at drafting, developing, evaluating, and trading. Which the Twins haven't been. Maybe they'll be better in the next decade...but I don't expect the FA spending strategy to change. Also worth noting that as good as Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa Bay have been at executing this strategy...they appeared in (and lost) a combined grand total of one world series in the decade.
  3. jkcarew
    Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea plus $21.6M = "mortgaging the future"? Come on, now. If they had saved the $21M, that would have covered a grand total of ONE year of the contract Hosmer got from the Padres when he hit free agency. The Royals are where they are because they chose not to retain the core of the championship team when they reached free agency (and, for the most part, also failed to trade those pieces for value before they left). Not because of $21M and parting with two prospects that put up a combined total of 3.7 bWAR last year. I get the intent of the article, but the 2015 Royals would be a better example of "smart aggressiveness"....not "mortgaging the future".
  4. jkcarew
    Look, I don't think any of these signings are slam dunks. And was never highly confident the 'impact' pitching signing would happen. Still, I thought there was a decent chance that the FO would hit on one of these guys somewhere along the line. Bad plan, poor reads on the market, too passive, maybe a bad break or two, we don't know...whatever. Failure. You either assume the FO wasn't trying...or that they tried and failed. FWIW...I feel it's fairly obvious that they thought they were trying...and simply have failed. It makes me more sad than mad. Mad assumes they can execute a good plan when they want to.
  5. jkcarew
    The Twins OF had a collective wRC+ of 107 last year...even with the issues. Not exactly where a club in the Twins situation should be focusing scarce FA resources. And then there's the fact that outfield is easily the position of greatest organizational depth. Meanwhile, there's just no explaining the fascination some have with Billy Hamilton. He runs fast apparently. But, Usain Bolt would be a bad major league baseball player if he hit like Billy Hamilton. And he probably can.
  6. jkcarew
    Unless that AAA hitter happens to be right-handed. 1.050 OPS allowed against right-handed batter is AAA last year. Yikes.
  7. jkcarew
    It's pretty unusual, in terms of how significant, and how long he's sustained it. It does make this a more intriguing signing, IMO.
  8. jkcarew
    Zero risk to Yankees. The fact that they're bothering at all to do this is a good indication that they have information indicating there's at least a decent chance they end up paying less than the full remaining value. But, even if not, so what? Nobody...Boras...or any other player or agent, will hold this over the Yankees. Meaningful bias doesn't develop against the single biggest buyer of services in the marketplace. In 2018, the Yankees reacted to Ellsbury's seven-year, $153MM contract blowing up...by taking on almost $300M and 10 years of Giancarlo Stanton. The trade market for Stanton at that time consisted of....the Yankees. And the Yankees will do the same/similar when Stanton's contract blows up. The luxury tax, as currently constructed, means nothing to the Yankees, despite the fact that they occasionally give it lip service.
  9. jkcarew
    Eloy Jimenez
  10. jkcarew
    Interesting article...good concept. Think of these competing narratives as risk. Then think of that risk as the 'hidden' cost of operating at the middle and bottom of the free agency market.
  11. jkcarew
    "Graterol was an exciting call-up at season’s end last year and the Twins used him entirely out of the bullpen. The plan will most definitely be for him to return to the rotation to start 2020." Huh? Most definitely? This sounds like news, and as such, you should probably name your source. Relying on these possibilities is both a legitimate plan and not a legitimate plan. A legitimate plan (arguably) for winning a weak division. And not legitimate in any way for winning in the AL playoffs.
  12. jkcarew
    Don't think it's likely that Kepler or Berrios take big sustainable steps from here. They could, but it doesn't seem that likely. With Buxton, it's all about the likelihood that he can play 140 games. The person who would seem to have one of the bigger opportunities to step up purely from a performance standpoint would be Rosario (assuming he's not traded)...and perhaps a 'surprise' rookie or second-year player along the lines of 2019 Arraez....but maybe on the pitching side.
  13. jkcarew
    That for 2 years of Jon Gray? I wouldn't call it a no-brainer, but you'd have to pull the trigger given the current window/opportunity. If this was offered by the Rockies, I'd consider Murphy a salary dump on the part of Colorado...and I'd do anything possible to do a deal that doesn't involve Murphy...but I'd take him if it was necessary to do the deal. Twins are better with Sano and CJ Cron, than with Sano and Murphy.
  14. jkcarew
    I mean...the national writers, when commenting on the swing, in addition to incorporating their own reactions, are incorporating information from scouts (at least some scouts) who HAVE seen hundreds of his at-bats. Regarding Buxton...it's pretty hard to criticize how the Twins handled Buxton at this (Lewis's) stage of development. Buxton destroyed minor-league pitching in his age 21 season....and in every season, other than the injury-shortened age 20 season. Having said that, I'm with you on the balancing act between messing with him and letting him figure things out himself. I can accept arguments on both sides of that depending upon how impatient I am on that day.
  15. jkcarew
    The cold reality is how awful drafting and development of pitching has been for the last decade. While most of that is not on the current FO, you still need to concede (IMO) that the current administration so far has failed in either anticipating 2019...or in reacting to it. Anyone could see the pitching dilemma coming from a mile away. Still, I just can't get that into weighing in on why/how they're failing. Too much of it crosses my personal line between reasonably-informed opinion...into simple guessing. Besides, the why doesn't matter to me. Just like for players, results are all that really matters. It's getting late.
  16. jkcarew
    I have no trouble trading Sano for value at some point between now and when he becomes a free agent...if you get value...and if you have other answers for offensive production at third, at first, and at DH. Absolutely must have offensive production at those positions. There seems to be some sentiment here that the Twins would be better off with almost any available bat that provides better defense than Sano at third. That's just wrong. We all wish Sano was better there with the glove, nevertheless high-end offense is way more valuable than defense...especially at third/first base. It makes no sense to replace Sano at third (or at first) with anything other than high-end bats. Doing so makes the Twins worse, not better.
  17. jkcarew
    Probably the most important thing...still...is how his defensive game at SS develops. He can be an iffy hitter if he's a solid major league shortstop. But if he has to move to a corner...or even center field...his value becomes much more dependent upon the bat coming around. Right now, the results aren't good...and the swing is ugly.
  18. jkcarew
    I think I was trying to take credit away from Ziggy, not contribute to Twins excuses.
  19. jkcarew
    This. To me, there are seats that I wouldn't pay a penny for if NOT behind a screen...and then there are seats I wouldn't pay a penny for if they WERE behind a screen. I suppose everyone is going to disagree on this...or at least disagree on where that line is. FWIW, I draw that line well short of the foul polls. But, exit velo, phones, etc....I guess it was inevitable.
  20. jkcarew
    I get that Ziggy seems good at projecting that persona. But it's completely apples/oranges vs the Twins scenario. Ziggy's payroll is pre-determined every year. There's a hard cap. It's just a matter of how he distributes the payroll. When the Vikings go out and get Cousins, it shows a willingness to gamble to achieve results...but it's not a financial gamble in any way/shape/form for Ziggy.
  21. jkcarew
    But this infers that the Twins had an opportunity to counter. And we don't know that. Once the 'neighborhood' was established, it's absolutely feasible that the Wheeler camp would have shut things down rather than wait for a Twins offer of $120-125M only to use it to play (risky) games with the franchise with whom they had already decided they want to coexist over the next 5 years. Even in the scenario where the Twins had the opportunity to counter, but refused to move...do we know if that was the FO or the Pohlads who declined? It would matter it terms of the direction some of these threads are going. My only point being...we don't know. And we'll never know. Every deal that doesn't get done is a black hole of speculation. Of course, if the Twins had opened with $135M, then we probably don't need to speculate. Of course, I think that's what some are waiting to see from the Twins....if not, just for once.
  22. jkcarew
    I guess the argument, over time, would be where the Pohlads have ranked in payroll and other baseball-related expenditures vs where they've ranked in revenue. If I was an owner, regardless of my wealth, I'd aim for 'good' margins for all my businesses, based on how that specific business defines good. The question, IMO,...has this ownership consistently tried to squeeze more margin out of the business than the competition? Is it close or is it egregious? Would we likely be better off as fans with different owners? My sense is that the Pohlads have been average in this regard, and we wouldn't necessarily be better off with different owners. (But a thorough/objective analysis of the data could convince me otherwise.) In the meantime, I save 50% of my frustration for the baseball people that have let the organizational pitching situation get to where it is in the first place. Also, fwiw, I would think that...in a scenario like the Wheeler scenario...that if the FO felt strongly enough (and had the opportunity) to recommend that ownership pay an additional $20M over 5 years...that the Pohlads would have agreed. Pulling this stuff off isn't easy.
  23. jkcarew
    2018 was the outlier. No thanks.
  24. jkcarew
    Berrios and Wheeler have been about the same pitcher over the last two seasons in terms of value. Kinda makes me ask myself why Berrios would sign an extension with the Twins. Berrios will be a full year younger than Wheeler when he hits free agency.
  25. jkcarew
    For a team ready to compete now, a healthy Cron in 2020 is a better option that most being thrown around in this thread, other than... Sano (but what do you do about 3rd, then) Garver (zero indication Rocco plans on playing him at first for significant games/innings)
×
×
  • Create New...