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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Sign-stealing is an advantage, we can be sure...or the players wouldn't attempt it. But how much of an advantage...and how effective is the process of steeling signs in actual practice...even in the case of video-aided steeling? We don't know. How often is the signal not relayed in time, or misunderstood? How often does the system work perfectly, and then the pitch is in the dirt or 6 inches outside? How often does the process need to reset due to the pitcher/catcher changing sequences, etc. etc? We don't really know. After all, Alex Wood was able to hold the Astros to 1 hit over 6 innings at Houston in game 4 of the 2017 series. Meanwhile, in games 2 and 7 at LA, the Astros lit up the likes of Brandon Morrow, Kenley Jansen and Yu Darvish without the electronics in place. Like most scandals in sports and society, the guilty parties will be remembered as much for the cover-ups, the denying, and the lies, lies, lies...as much as the act itself. If the Black Sox, or Pete Rose, or Steroids would have occurred in the era of blogs, Twitter, and Instagram...absolute armageddon. To be sure, none of these things were good for baseball. But major-league baseball has never been perfect...or anywhere close. (And it's not like the NBA/NFL or any other sport or institution involving humans shines in comparison.) Will passionate fans ever agree on the punishments? No. But, I'm moving on already. If I can live with the record books showing Barry Bonds with 762 HR's, I can live with them showing the 2017 WS champions as the Houston Astros.
  2. jkcarew
    I wouldn't think the NL will be holding out much longer. 2019 pitcher batting stats...OPS - 322; OBP - 160; K% - 43.5 But those mid-inning double-switches are positively magical.
  3. jkcarew
    Yes, infield defense is important (although it's becoming less important all the time). It's just not nearly as important as infield offense.
  4. jkcarew
    I like Buxton right where he is...9th...especially against right-handed starters. But, you need to make a lineup for a third 'main' scenario...with Avila starting at catcher against a right-handed starter. Garver will start practically every game against a left-handed starter...and he and Avila will split starts against right-handed starters. It's not inconceivable that Avila will make more starts against right-handed starters than will Garver (not by a lot, of course). And we know on Garver's off days, Rocco is unlikely to play Garver at first-base or even DH. Against Right-Handed Starters, Avila playing catcher... 1. Luis Arráez ( L ) - 2B 2. Jorge Polanco (S) - SS 3. Max Kepler (L) - RF 4. Nelson Cruz ( R) DH 5. Josh Donaldson ( R ) - 3B 6. Eddie Rosario (L) - LF 7. Miguel Sano ( R ) - 1B 8. Alex Avila (L) - C 9. Byron Buxton ( R) - CF
  5. jkcarew
    Mrs. Hansen called from 8th grade English in 1974. She says... "of which they aren't taking advantage". But, yes.
  6. jkcarew
    This illustrates a great point that can't be overstated... The playoffs is about the top end of your pitching staff...both starters and relievers. The bottoms of the rotation/bullpen are barely used. The match-ups are strength against strength. "Deep", "balanced", "solid" are descriptors of pitching staffs that will win you division titles and get you to the post-season. Studs are what will bring you home once you get there.
  7. jkcarew
    We have no idea where things will be in 2021 or 2022...or by the 2020 stretch run, for that matter. We do know that Lewis OPS'd 665 in single-A last year and that Kirilloff OPS'd 756 in AA. So for now, let's just enjoy the rare treat for Twins fans of going into a season where developing our prospects at the major-league level is what it should be every year...something to be avoided rather than something to build the marketing program around. (Meanwhile there are arguments to trade top prospects. But...at least for now...that has to do with filling current major-league holes, not concerns that the prospects are blocked and wasting their value in the minors.)
  8. jkcarew
    Accumulated bWAR in seasons where primarily playing first-base for Twins.. Hrbek------------38.6 Killebrew--------25.3 (Lot of Killebrew's WAR was 3B/OF...and/or Senators) Morneau---------23.2 Carew------------21.5 It would be just fine for Sano to knock two or three of these guys down a peg before he's done
  9. jkcarew
    Agreed. I would hope that Sano would not be the 'regular' (short-term injuries, rest, etc.) backup at 3rd. Let him focus on developing/refining first-base skills. Now, if Donaldson has long-term issues, I guess I'd be willing to consider moving Sano back...especially if the organization has a much better offensive alternative at first in such a scenario (Kirilloff? Larnach?) than they do at third (Adrianza? Blankenhorn?). Let's hope we don't find out the answer to this, at least in 2020.
  10. jkcarew
    Why? I'll hold the 24 year-old shortstop that OPS'd .801 in AAA last year...over the 26 year-old corner outfielder with the .712 OPS in 628 AAA PA's. Last year, Wade's OPS ranked 14th among Rochester batters with at least 100 PA. Ideally, I'd trade both...again, starting with Wade...if I thought they'd add value to a package.
  11. jkcarew
    Definitely will be interesting to see what Donaldson't impact on the clubhouse will be. Club definitely took on a bit of the 'laid back' vibe last year...reflecting, at least to some extent, Rocco's relaxed/cerebral style. Donaldson is anything but laid back. I'm not much of a 'clubhouse' guy...at the professional level, teams tend to win or lose based on how well they hit, pitch, and field...not how well they get along or how much they hang out together. Still, could be very interesting.
  12. jkcarew
    It's questionable, give where he is in his career, that Donaldson will have a year with the Twins that would exceed what the Twins got from prime Gaetti or prime Koskie. Still, it seems very reasonable to expect something in that general area for a year or two...if he remains healthy. Definitely could be a huge boost to a club that has a chance to seriously compete for a pennant.
  13. jkcarew
    So, defense was the difference in the postseason last year?
  14. jkcarew
    I like it. Now make the pitching move prior to the start of the season. Already have help coming near the deadline, but very thin to start the year. Turns out that negotiating smartly looks a lot like negotiating cheaply. Who knew.
  15. jkcarew
    There have been many world series won by teams with first-baseman that had no defensive skill whatsoever other than that they could catch a ball thrown to them. Almost every major-league player (almost) has that skill. A wizard at first is nice, fun to watch, but not a necessity. The first-baseman needs to hit. The best argument for not acquiring Castellanos IMO is the argument that his aggressiveness (over-aggressiveness) is not an ideal fit for our lineup. Definitely could use another guy for the middle of the lineup that has some good plate discipline, and Castellanos ain't that.
  16. jkcarew
    It's the quintessential Minnesota thing to assume that the reason your teams lose is because something unfair happened during the game/season...and that your team is never guilty of anything. As a life-long Minnesotan I can attest that there's nothing more Minnesotan than that. It's the way we remain so proud of all those division titles and playoff "appearances". Would I rather finish 2nd honestly than in 1st dishonestly. 100%. But, let's not lose track of the fact that the Twins primary challenge over the last decade-plus has been both lack of commitment and lack of execution. Not external factors.
  17. jkcarew
    I think the argument for real consequences is about maintaining a level playing field...not necessarily about the theoretical value or even morality about stealing signs. Everyone has the same opportunity to 'frame' a pitch. Everyone has the same opportunity to steal a sign when they have a runner on second base. Using electronics to steal a sign is where the rule is established, primarily because it's enforceable. And when someone breaks that rule, an advantage is realized relative to the teams that don't break that rule.
  18. jkcarew
    There were two players the Twins initially failed to reach deals with prior to the arb deadline. Sano and Berrios. Seems pretty likely that the reason for that was the club and player/agent were focusing on extension negotiations before resorting to spending time and effort on narrower discussions to avoid arbitration. Sano got finished very quickly. Not yet with Berrios. We'll see. If anything, I'd be worrying about the other arbitration-eligible core pieces that reached 'easy' agreements prior to arbitration (e.g., Buxton). At least with Berrios we have possible indications that both parties are currently willing to spend time on longer-term discussions.
  19. jkcarew
    I think a lot of the debate on this thread is caused by this statement in the article: "if the Twins are intent on moving Miguel Sanó to first base to improve the defense". That's an unnecessarily narrow premise. What about if the Twins want to improve the offense?...or better, improve overall? They don't have two corner infielders (of the proven major-league variety). The question should be...do any of the 3rd-basemen in the article make the Twins a better overall team, with Sano at first...that they would be with Sano at 3rd and player x at first? Clearly, the answer is YES for some of the options in the article...even considering any of the current possibilities for player X. So, IMO...as always...it comes down to the cost for Arenado, Seager, Bryant, Donaldson.
  20. jkcarew
    Front office is going to have some explaining to do if they trade for Donaldson.
  21. jkcarew
    But you need a first-baseman and a third-baseman. IMO, the Twins should be exploring a proven first-baseman or a proven third baseman for 2020. Can they slap a rookie in there...or a bench player...or Garver? Well, there's been no indication that the Twins want Garver to play first-base on 'rest' days. A current bench player would make the entire lineup less deep and less flexible. And slapping a rookie into a premier offensive position for a contending team...that's probably pretty risky as well.
  22. jkcarew
    But, why? The Twins don't have both a third-baseman and a first-baseman. They either need a first-baseman or a third-baseman. The season starts in 2 1/2 months. That's a fairly big deal for a team that is expected to compete for a pennant. Meanwhile, using anything other than a proven player to fill the gap in a year where the team has a chance to seriously contend....well, I would expect the topic of what to do about third (or first) isn't going away anytime real soon.
  23. jkcarew
    Good deal. No-brainer for the Twins. More team-friendly than I imagined would be the case for Sano at this particular point in time. But who knows what motivates each guy.
  24. jkcarew
    I'm sure Sano could play first base beyond 30 years of age. But, more importantly, I don't care how old my first baseman or DH are if they can hit. The Twins paid $14M to a 38 year-old to play DH last year. It was worth it...because even at first-base/DH, there's a huge difference between good-hitting and great-hitting. Sano's not a 'great hitter' at this point, but he's trending well...and his power is anything but 'available every off-season'. With regard to "lock yourself in". The Twins committed only one additional year.
  25. jkcarew
    Last season, as a whole, was a huge success as a step toward legitimately competing for a pennant. I think some (including me) have tried to make the point that additional steps just as significant need to follow...that the 'failure' of the post-season was real. It wasn't bad luck. It was indicative of the significant gap that remains (from the top teams) is real...despite the considerable ground that was gained. Nothing wrong with fans celebrating 2019 and a future that looks much brighter than it has for some time. But, the FO should be looking at the 2019 post-season...and the season-long challenges against teams with winning records...not the number '101'. Can some of the gap be made up from further steps for current/internal options? Possibly. But, IMO (and I think in the opinion of others as well), the 2019 results exemplify exactly why the FO should be helping with immediate (2020), needle-moving, moves. So far, that hasn't happened.
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