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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    For my grandkids…(great grandkids?)… Mandate that all new minor and major league fields have larger minimum dimensions…and significantly larger dimensions down the line and to straightaway left and right. So, make the stadiums larger and more symmetrical…reduce incentive to pull, and to launch…increase incentive for fast outfielders…create more shallow singes or risk more triples over the outfielders head. Restrict/stop…even walk back…specialization in how pitchers are used. Put teeth in pitcher roster restrictions. In conjunction with significantly larger/symmetrical field dimensions…consider moving the pitching rubber back 6 inches. In short, make it harder to hit a home run. And easier to get a base hit. That’s the fundamental change needed so that we can get back to a healthy balance between contact and HR’s and speed and power.
  2. jkcarew
    It’s our only hope. Look, your side of the argument says players will never (at least in the foreseeable future) change the current launch/pull TTO approach. That it’s sybermetrically superior and how players are promoted and paid. My side of the argument simply says…”yes, but the sybermetric threshold is here (or very close), and now the real problem is the modern player doesn’t have the skill set to adjust.” It’s not just that they won’t…it’s that they can’t. This is the real problem. And a solution to that problem is not advanced…in fact it’s delayed…if you further incentivize the current approach, which is what restricting the shift does. Admittedly, this is akin to saying it has to get worse before it gets better. But, there you are. FWIW, I’m sure you’re in the majority here. I’ve heard Bob Costas take my view on it, but very few others among the ‘experts’ or the fans.
  3. jkcarew
    But my point would be that the increase in goodness that you speak of would be absorbed in a handful of years as the TTO trend accelerates…which it will if you further reward it in this manner. I think you’re better off if you wait for the hitters to hit the BA/OBP threshold where they change the behavior. He’ll, more shift, not less, as far as I’m concerned. To me, no lasting goodness happens without a change in the batters’ approach/ behavior/ skill set…anything that doesn’t do that will only have short term benefit and could easily make it worse in the longer term.
  4. jkcarew
    I think you’re hitting on it here. It’s HOW offensive value is achieved now. What we have now is an extreme (literally off the charts) example of the 1960’s. The 70’s, and 80’s…into the 90’s…seemed to be a good in-between (as compared with the ‘wait for the three-run homer’ 60’s vs the dead-ball game). To me it starts with geometry. The ballparks started getting much smaller at the exact time that the size and strength of the hitters got much larger. Combine that with the max-effort on every pitch made possible by the evolution of how bullpens are used…and now we have a situation where it’s both extremely difficult to consistently get hits, and extremely easy for anyone in the lineup to reach the seats when they hit the ball in the air.
  5. jkcarew
    That’s a popular opinion, and one I reject. It lifts BA slightly with a few extra miss-hit balls going through the hole. But the flaw in the conventional logic is that hitters are NOT going to start trying to hit line drives through the hole. In stead, they will be FURTHER encouraged to pull and launch everything…for the precise reason that they will be rewarded more often when they ‘miss’. So, in practice, it further increases K’s and reduces balls in play. Even to the extent that it moderately increases base runners, it feeds the trend that the baserunner will be big and slow…and base running continues its decline as a strategic part of the game.
  6. jkcarew
    I would normally agree with this sentiment, but in this specific instance…who is ‘they’?…other than Moran? Pitching-wise, there is nothing currently available at AAA level (again other than Moran) that does anything more for me than the waiver wire guys. And the guys lower don’t seem ready…primarily due to recent health issues…even for an audition. Failing a Donaldson trade at the deadline, expecting them to bench or have their top FA signing split time with a prospect is not realistic. And as for SS, it seems clear they don’t see anyone at AAA…including Gordon…as being a legitimate option.
  7. jkcarew
    Kind of an anomaly going on here, though. The Twins have actually had a solidly losing record every single month…except August. It’s just that they had a very strong late May (mainly thanks to the Orioles)…and now a truly good stretch in August. In fact, in the first 53 games of the season, the Twins were 22-31. Then, over the next 53 games, they were….you guessed it…22-31. 44-62 through 106 games. Tremendous consistency?. Now, in the last 12 games…10 of which featured division leaders…they’re 8-4. Go figure.
  8. jkcarew
    This. Among pitchers, other than Moran, who is it that we would like to see that we haven’t already been seeing? None of the top starting prospects have been healthy long enough to shove them up to the big club. Vasquez?….Albers?…Hamilton we’ve seen. Cano hasn’t been good. And in regards to Miranda, something has to happen with Donaldson first…they’re not bringing him up to split time with Donaldson. That leaves us with the SS conundrum. And in this case, I really do believe the Twins don’t like any of the immediate alternatives to Simmons. I wish they’d throw Palacios in there, but I think that would cost them some 40-man flexibility that they don’t want to give up quite yet.
  9. jkcarew
    No way do I have Lewis #1 at this point. His bat is a huge question mark, unless you consider 95 AFL PA…two years and an ACL ago…his arrival. Keep in mind that if he isn’t a major league shortstop ( very much debated by scouts), the threshold for the bat goes up significantly. For instance, who is a better 3rd base prospect right now…Miranda or Lewis? Who’s the better CF prospect…Martin or Lewis? I still believe in the upside, but for me way too much has happened in the last two years…and two weeks…for Lewis to be #1. Also, Jermaine Palacios has earned a spot in the top 30…perhaps in place of Javier. These rankings are fun….keep them coming!
  10. jkcarew
    I agree that Buxton’s situation would have an impact on how they look at SS free agents this year. Not sure how anyone would draw the conclusion that the Twins see Gordon as a major league SS. They played him there 2 games of the 38 he had with the big club…and it’s not like Simmons was demanding at bats with his performance. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they end up rostering Palacios. I’d put him at more like 20%.
  11. jkcarew
    And it wasn’t just walks and errors, he was getting hit… 6 hits in 1.2 innings. We’ll see. Hopefully, he’s healthy.
  12. jkcarew
    Palacios.
  13. jkcarew
    Except for 50% of our RBI’s tonight.
  14. jkcarew
    You’re confusing value with consistency. The above demonstrates modest value (which I’d agree with), not remarkable inconsistency. Not uncommon at all for a perfectly ‘consistent’ player to have full-year WAR that deviates in magnitude 2, 3, 4 per year. Check out Kirby Puckett. There’s BABiP in play year to year along with extremely imperfect defensive stats, and normal variation in performance.
  15. jkcarew
    So, to summarize…Sano’s been better than Kirilloff, even accounting for his first awful months. But not significantly better. Meanwhile, significantly better than both Larnach and Kepler. Also, he was benched. Being ‘platooned’ has had nothing to do with his performance…his splits have been better against righties than lefties this year. Bottom line, there is nothing in Sano’s overall performance that warrants the FO being in a hurry to get rid of him. They can wait for the next generation to actually arrive rather than assume they will arrive.
  16. jkcarew
    I think there’s a good argument that Cavaco’s floor is as low as any prospect we’ve looked at in the top 30. Probably a statement both on the improved depth in the system, and the fact that Cavaco was a bit of a reach where the Twins took him, really hasn’t shown much at all in the early going…nor does he seem someone likely to stay at SS.
  17. jkcarew
    Hyperbole. In fact, the opposite is true. Sano’s floor is somewhere between Davis and Carter. And he’s been more consistent, not less. Davis posted seven years of negative bWAR, (and one with 7+!)…Carter 3 or 4 with negative WAR. Sano has had one…and 2021 isn’t going to be a second. Also, say what you want about Sano’s defense, he has infinitely more defensive value than either Davis or Carter had. He’s been significantly better than both Larnach and Kirilloff over the season…and especially over the last 2+ months. Should the Twins be able to better at 1B/DH? Maybe…it would be nice. But is Sano even close to a top problem for the 2022-2023 Twins? No, not even close. That’s why he’ll likely be around next year…unless he can be a part of something that brings pitching in return.
  18. jkcarew
    If it’s Moran that everyone wants to see sooner rather than later…there are a few options. For instance, what is Derek Law doing on the 40-man at this point?
  19. jkcarew
    Curious time to throw Sano in with Burrows, Barnes, and Rooker, isn’t it? With a slick fielding first baseman who never makes an error…instead of Sano…the final score of this game is 10-0.
  20. jkcarew
    Just lay them on the sidewalk there. Medium rare in 5 minutes.
  21. jkcarew
    Nice skill to have…and like the approach with runner on 3rd and 2 out. But if he’s going to be a guy with a high K rate…which is very much what he looks like…the power needs to start showing up. Surprisingly very little x-base power so far, although the amateur and minor league track record suggests it’ll show up eventually.
  22. jkcarew
    In a season where everything has gone wrong that can go wrong…even offensively…the Twins have the 3rd best team OPS in the AL. Even since the trade of Cruz with the mixing and matching, they’ve been above league average. Even Sano…who’s had a bad year, and many here would apparently be ready and willing to trade for nothing…is sitting at a wRC+ of 103, which is exactly what Joe Mauer’s was as a first-baseman. (Sano’s at 121 since May 15.) And there’s a reasonable chance Kirilloff will be significantly better. Very reasonable chance for improvement at SS and one or both OF corners, as well. Bottom line…the floor seems absurdly high offensively for a few years yet. Seems to just be a matter of how quickly the pitching can be solved.
  23. jkcarew
    I guess if we still consider Gordon as “developing”…then it makes some sense to have him playing every day, something he hasn’t been doing. And he has been struggling pretty mightily at the plate for a while now, as well. I’m ok with it…but then again, I’m assuming this is about Gordon, and not Refsnyder.
  24. jkcarew
    But it explains the severely restricted pitch count so far. I’m sure Chief could tell us the sad story of Methuselah…had his old-testament league career cut short after a couple hundred years…all because his rookie year manager was too aggressive with pitch count. Cost him anywhere from 2-3 dollars in lost salary over a career that could have gone another six or seven centuries easily.
  25. jkcarew
    Especially, if we had a chance of facing the Royals in the playoffs!
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