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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Graterol slides down some for me. 5 years in and he’s on pace to having only one year with anything even close to 100 innings. He might be a regular member of a major league starting rotation some day...he’s just turning 21...but he’ll need to show real evidence that’s realistic at some point.
  2. jkcarew
    Absolutely!
  3. jkcarew
    Lewis played SS his senior year. Meanwhile, Cavaco played multiple positions, primarily 3rd...and, by all reports, rarely if ever SS. Not that I am trying to represent any of that as definitive. But the point stands...based on what people (scouts) who saw them play at the same stage had to say, the prospect of Cavaco sticking at SS seems materially lower than what the information available at the time had to say about Lewis's chances.
  4. jkcarew
    I guess you have to highly rank a prospect recently drafted as early as Cavaco was. But, I really don't see the Lewis parallels. Cavaco popped late, and based primarily on the power tool. He didn't even play SS on his high school team...and it's really hard to even find a scouting report on him that even mentions anything other than 3rd base. Nobody's saying he has Lewis's speed, or even that his speed is sure to be an outstanding tool at the major-league level. He seems to be a lottery ticket type of pick...albeit, where the jackpot is Kris Bryant. I'd have him a bit lower out of the gate.
  5. jkcarew
    I’d call that an unrealistic ceiling.
  6. jkcarew
    When Arraez’s BABiP normalizes...and it will normalize a lot...we’ll probably have a high BA major leaguer with almost zero power, average on the bases, and adequate defense at second. So kind of high floor, low ceiling at this point. The challenge will be that I think he would have more value as a Escobar/Gonzalez/Adrianza type long term, but don’t see that level of defensive skill. He’s 22, and in the majors...I’d have him ranked a little higher.
  7. jkcarew
    With the lineup the Twins trotted out there, the tired bodies, etc....kind of felt like we’d need a dominant performance from Berrios. Didn’t get one. The errors hurt, but 8 swinging strikes in 105 pitches, tons of hittable pitches, two HR, speak for themselves...and to a White Sox lineup that, while not terrible, still falls well below average. Don’t know if I’d give my ‘ace’ bonus points for surviving into the 8th against the White Sox, nevertheless he didn’t fail in that regard. Maybe the Twins capitalize on that this weekend.
  8. jkcarew
    Altuve actually showed considerably more power (and speed) in the minors than has Arraez. (30 HR to 6, both in about 1600 PA). And with the current stance/swing/approach that Arraez employs, I don't think significant power is in the offing. Arraez is a difficult comp...he's low SLG, high OBP (relative to other good/very good hitters). And the OBP will come from a high BA...more so than a ridiculously high BB rate. When you find a guy like this in history, he tends to have a speed profile...but that's not Arraez, either. Offensively, maybe Arraez's ceiling would feel a bit like Wade Boggs floor? (Emphasis on ceiling vs floor here ). 1990 Boggs was 302/386/418 with 6 HR and negligible SB. Mix in a few more base hits and a few less walks....and also playing a more valuable defensive position.
  9. jkcarew
    FWIW...I interpreted (assumed) those comments to refer to a shot (or shots) that were part of a rest/recovery regimen...not continuing or part of a game-prep routine. I would hope that's the case. I guess we'll see...I'll panic next time I see him K 3+ times in a game ...that's what happened immediately prior to this last hiatus.
  10. jkcarew
    Good article. Conclusion: Perez is who he is. Wes Johnson and the Twins staff (or any staff) are not capable of anything other than providing information and ideas that can make differences on the margins. (Yes, margins matter in MLB.) But, if a guy can consistently throw multiple major-league-quality pitches where he wants to, he's going to be consistently good. If he can't, he's not. A couple of MPH and pitch sequencing are drops to the ocean that is command. And while Perez is currently regressing a bit, Pineda seems to be moving upward toward his 'norm'.
  11. jkcarew
    Missed the report that he's taking (took) cortisone shots to play yesterday. I'm elated that he's finally back. But if it's enable by cortisone shots...that would be a head-scratcher, IMO. Had a wrist injury, comes back after missing over a month, only to re-injure it. Takes another 3 weeks off, and returns with the aid of cortisone shots? For the Pensacola Blue Wahoos? There has to be some details we're missing.
  12. jkcarew
    Gordon has a .787 OPS at the AA level in over 750 PA. Fine...but not exactly destroying the league. He was .906 in a small sample in 2018 before being promoted to AAA...primarily, because he showed the ability to hit the ball over the fence with 5 HR in 180 PA. Now, after 556 PA at the AAA level, he still hasn't gotten to 5 HR. Not to say that his results this season (still only 146 PA due to injuries) haven't been encouraging. They have been. While the offensive expectations have taken a hit, I agree he's still in a position to be a useful major-leaguer.
  13. jkcarew
    In a way, I'd rather have him as a free agent in the off-season than pay much for him as a rental. I think he's got years left as a 3-4 guy (maybe more?). The games he's missed in recent years were not due to arm issues. But I don't think he's much of an upgrade vs a strong Gibson as of this moment. Then again, he'd be great insurance headed into the post season in the event that Odo/Gibson especially turn into pumpkins (as Han mentions above) between now and then. Not easy call. SF will lose leverage as the deadline approaches...there will be pressure for them to get something for him. It will be a game of chicken among the contenders as that date approaches.
  14. jkcarew
    Twins continue to be in a position where they can be patient with Sano. By patient, I mean play him, continue to work with him, and see how/if he improves. It's hard after a performance that ugly. But, he's had seasons where he's been great in leverage situations as well.
  15. jkcarew
    Sometimes when things aren't clicking (both sides), mistakes are made, hittable pitches are missed...and frustration and doubt creep into the picture...games simply become a war of wills. All of the air left the team and the building it seemed after that sequence in the bottom of the 6th and top of the 7th. This was a different kind of win than the club has come up with to date...and pretty impressive.
  16. jkcarew
    The moral is that you’d hope your FO is smart enough to protect the players that are going to be the better players...in the case of Glasgow and Meadows...on the verge of being major league all-stars...instead of protecting the guys that are the latest shiniest objects. Example of one organization being way better at this than another. Concur on Arraez...not enough power, speed, or defensive prowess to be too attractive.
  17. jkcarew
    Could Pittsburgh have possibly been fleeced worse than what Tampa did to them in the Chris Archer deal?
  18. jkcarew
    I thought we were looking at least a four, if not a three. But, the very instant I first saw Pineda on the mound this spring, I lowered my expectations. I found myself less concerned with his pitches than with the possibility that he would injure himself simply navigating around the mound or experience some type of cardiac event. 10 short weeks later, he's in a position to exceed my lowered expectations.
  19. jkcarew
    Regarding the numbers, taking out the periods of struggle would make every player look better than they are. The AAA results, including power/ISO aren't particularly good at this point (other than OBP...boosted quite a bit by an unsustainably high BABiP). But I agree he has a bit of a pattern of having better second-halfs. We'll see what his second half looks like this year...then, in 2020 in all likelihood, we'll see what it looks like for him to repeat a level. (Unless traded, maybe.) To me, there's still way too much that can go wrong with Rooker to have him rated this high...not the least of which is how his bat will need to play given his defensive options at the major league level. And especially relative to guys like Rortvedt and Arraez who seem to be well on their way to establishing floors that put them in the majors.
  20. jkcarew
    Brent Rooker..."this is a power bat that doesn’t have a ton of swing and miss." I have to ask myself...given his 38% K-rate in AAA, what does a 'ton of swing and miss' look like to you? Rooker's K-rate as a 23 year-old last year in AA was higher than Miguel Sano's was as a 22 year-old in AA. With Rooker the story hasn't changed up to this point. Until his profile changes, the power better be HUGE. And frequent.
  21. jkcarew
    I don't mind the bunt there in general...at home, late,when even one run scored flips the win probability in a major way. Having said that, I don't think I would have chosen to bunt with that match-up. Watching him, Polanco definitely took a very conservative 'sacrifice-first' approach, IMO. Another way of saying it would be...if he was bunting for a hit, it was about the worse possible bunt approach/placement he could have taken. Bottom line, just got beat by a good pitcher. Boston has a ton of very good starters. The encouraging thing is that Berrios dominated a playoff calibre lineup. You can look at his game logs the last couple of years and you'll see plenty of nice outings. But, he's seldom been able to dominate a really good lineup. It looked like that stuff he had last night would play in a matchup vs Sale, Verlander, etc.
  22. jkcarew
    From Danchat (I take this to mean...after the Southern League all-star break.) http://twinsdaily.com/topic/33539-article-twins-minor-league-report-614-blankenhorn-walk-off-winner-lifts-wahoos/?do=findComment&comment=863217
  23. jkcarew
    Thanks much!...I hadn't heard anything. If its the wrist, I have two reactions....one, why the mystery with the 'undisclosed' when he went to the IL; two, it's a re-injury....I go from wanting him playing, to pumping the brakes...they obviously already made one mistake by rushing it.
  24. jkcarew
    Anyone seen Alex Kirilloff lately? Has he been with the club in Pensacola, or perhaps in Ft Myers? Will he be back after the Southern league all-star game? Should we file a missing persons report? Two weeks and counting for a 7-day IL ‘undisclosed’ injury...for a #2 prospect...and apparently nobody in the Twins Cities can get an update?
  25. jkcarew
    In a 162 game schedule, sometimes a hot team with tons of momentum, starts playing poorly several games before results actually turn sour. Hopefully, that isn't what started last week, because the Twins didn't play well at all. They played 6 games at home against two really, really bad teams and outscored them 35-31..most games could have gone either way. Rather than looking/hoping/wishing that the Twins make a move for pitching...and least in the very near-term...I'm going to be looking for some better play in the upcoming week. Maybe the reality of a Red Sox team that seems to be turning the corner will be enough to cut through the issues and distractions of the past week and sharpen the Twins play on the field.
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