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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    6-4 220 vs 6-3 195 (Baseball Reference). But, you have a point. For whatever reason, he strikes me as significantly shorter and especially slighter of build than that when watching him on TV.
  2. jkcarew
    You're walking down the street...next week somewhere outside of Milwaukee. You're not a baseball fan but do TV and social media. Walking in the opposite direction, you pass Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron, Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Michael Pineda, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, etc., etc...and Devin Smeltzer. You immediately determine these must be members of a professional sports club, and you assume Devin Smeltzer is... a) equipment manager b. assistant to the assistant team manager c) team statistician d) team physician e) agent or legal representation f) lost g) kid seeking autographs h) star of recent match/game I'd struggle between c) and g)
  3. jkcarew
    Yeah. From what I've read, Bauer Units means nothing, in itself, in terms of quality of pitch or amount of movement, etc. Instead, it just means that the nature of the movement you have is going to be different for those with high BU vs those with low BU. So...BU value is high, you should work your fastball middle-up...and if low, you should work your fastball middle-down. The long-term hope for Smeltzer is/was/will be...not just good command...but exceptional command...of multiple pitches. Easy guy to pull for, that's for sure.
  4. jkcarew
    Javier has a month-plus remaining in his 4th professional season, and he's just passing 400 plate appearances. I think it's going to be hard to tell for a while if he's going to be a bust...or simply a late-developer based on the extreme injury issues he faced early on. Meanwhile, I wish there was a lower league for the high school kids that sign. Part of the problem is that I don't think there are enough HS kids that sign any more. The GCL is mostly 2nd/3rd-year HS signees and late-drafted college guys. Many (most?) of the first-year HS signees are not Lewis or Kirilloff...they're not ready for the GCL, let alone the Appy or Midwest leagues. Case in point...Keoni Cavaco. I'd like to see him playing games regularly, and I'd like to see him succeeding some when he plays them. Neither of those things are happening at this point.
  5. jkcarew
    Kepler 2018 vs 2019 OPS+... 97 ; 129 K%...15.7; 15.7 BB%...11.6; 9.7 BABiP....236; .251 HR%....3.3; 6.5 Kepler career BABiP: .255 Christian Yelich career BABiP: .358 Kepler's improvement is almost completely tied to balls in the air traveling over the fence. That may or may not be sustainable (the ball, contact quality data, etc.). But, would love to see him improve at hitting balls hard to left and left-center and see him get more 'relief' from the BABiP.
  6. jkcarew
    Run differential would also suggest they're better than their current record reflects....maybe significantly so.
  7. jkcarew
    Fair way to look at it. My take... The post-season competition for the pennant is a tournament. The three possible participants against which the Twins would be substantial underdogs: the Yankees, Astros, and Red Sox (although currently 2 games out in the WC). Against 2 of these three teams, our odds probably got slightly better. Meanwhile, I don't think our odds to win the central are materially worse. I like what the Indians did...but especially, I like what it did longer-term for them. Not a disaster, but primarily because of what other teams failed to do...not because of what the Twins FO WAS able to do.
  8. jkcarew
    Due to deferments and other bonuses, there's much more than $75M owed to Greinke. David Adler, MLB.com... "Greinke is owed the prorated portion of his $21 million salary for 2019, as well as what’s left of the final two years of the deal, which comes out to $112.5 million (including deferred payments) when you also include two $3 million bonus payments he is still owed, as well as a $2 million trade bonus."
  9. jkcarew
    The thing I'll give Houston credit for...they've been way better at executing the tank strategy than any other MLB team to date. They were at the vanguard of the tanking movement and executed that strategy in a big way...accumulating draft picks and selling high on what talent stumbled their way. Then drafted and developed well, amassing a tone of capital. Then aggressively spent capital when the window came. It will be interesting to see how long they can sustain it, as they accumulate pennants/rings, but go through a ton of their capital while doing so.
  10. jkcarew
    Prelander Berroa, Jaylin Davis and Kai-Wei Teng....(haven't seen confirmation on this)
  11. jkcarew
    I need to find the TD equivalent for the Yankees! With Greinke going to the Astros...and the Yankees not having acquired any pitching...OMG!
  12. jkcarew
    I kinda agree. But, therein lies the problem. The sellers aren't moving the high end arms. If they were, the Yankees (at least) would have landed one by now. Still, I don't know why the Twins wouldn't have been aggressive on one more mid-tier reliever. Couldn't have hurt, and you're going to end up moving/exposing some of these prospects sooner or later, regardless.
  13. jkcarew
    Should be fewer 'hard' choices at Diplan's position than Diaz's position, though. Diplan will have a couple of months to audition to keep his 40-man spot at a position of need, and it didn't cost anything. Not what this thread is about, but good nevertheless.
  14. jkcarew
    My reaction, to at least some extend, would depend on what I see the other contenders do. If multiple teams in the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros, Cubs categories can't make a 'big' deal for pitching...to me, that would be an indicator that this year was unique. I still think that's unlikely...but with 4 hours to go, and counting...it's looking at least possible.
  15. jkcarew
    I think I would consider Kirilloff my most valuable trading chip. More valuable than Lewis at this point in time. I'm basing this on the assumption that the FO/staff consider Kirilloff as having the best Hit tool in the system...by a significant margin. That's an assumption that I don't know to be true. But it's realistic...and, if that's how the club evaluates Kirilloff, then there are very few scenarios that would warrant parting with him. The hit tool trumps everything...by a mile. See Luis Arraez.
  16. jkcarew
    He's in his fifth professional season, with about 1/3 of the season remaining...and he isn't pitching...and he has a total of 200 professional innings under his belt. If nothing else, he's in danger of approaching rule-5 eligibility before the Twins really know what they have or before he's prepared to be a major league regular starting pitcher. Maybe he's a reliever. The risks are growing with him, IMO. And, while many will disagree, I don't think your thoughts on Graterol are unreasonable.
  17. jkcarew
    .914 OPS in his last 24 games (month of July). Playing a regular center field.
  18. jkcarew
    Not really the point, is it? Professional athletes, baseball players, pitchers...surgeons...perform under those circumstances all the time. But not when they have a choice. When teams have to travel the evening before game days, they routinely send that starting pitcher to travel ahead of the team.
  19. jkcarew
    Well, he got little-to-no sleep in getting himself to Chicago in the wee hours today (this has been reported). Then turns around and travels back to Miami this evening...and has to make himself available less than 24 hours after his return to perform in a pennant race. That would have been the scenario without the scheduled day off. I’m pretty confident he would not have made the trip if not for the scheduled off day tomorrow.
  20. jkcarew
    Would have been probably professionally ill-advised, if not irresponsible, for Romo to do what he did...if not for the scheduled off-day tomorrow. That gave him the opportunity to make the decision he made.
  21. jkcarew
    Yes.
  22. jkcarew
    Nobody here was calling Diaz “another Twins draft bust”. The community is much more knowledgeable than that! We were calling him “another Twins international signing bust”. And I can’t believe we just GAVE him away.
  23. jkcarew
    Interesting analogy. Cron is almost exactly league average offensively as a first-baseman. If Romo is expected to be a league average reliever for us, it’s perfectly natural, IMO, to have two types of reactions. If you think this is it, while it probably improves the situation, you’re critical that this move pushes the Twins over any significant hurdle. If you’re convinced a bigger pitching acquisition is coming, you view this more favorably.
  24. jkcarew
    But in 2018 facing the Yankees, in 8.2 innings over several appearances, Romo ‘only’ gave up 16 base-runners and 5 runs (no HR’s). In the annals of Twins/Yankees in the 21st century, that would be our Mariano Rivera. This could very well result in an extra 9-8 win or two...and even if not, this should at least shave an average of 15 minutes per game off or losses.
  25. jkcarew
    Concur that the FO will look for every bit of evidence to justify aggressiveness with Lewis. He’s been better offensively for a few weeks, and off he goes. I wouldn’t be surprised if the bat struggles a bit at Pensacola for a while, but if it gets too bad, they can always promote him to Rochester, where everyone hits (see Jaylin Davis, or Jimmy Kerrigan. Or anybody.)
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