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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I consider this a conservative move...the type of move I would consider ‘smart’ when made by a club on the periphery of contention. You get a bullpen rental that should help at least marginally in leverage situations...and you exchange a prospect for which you have a pending roster dilemma for a decent, but further from the majors, prospect at a position of organizational need. I would think at least one, more aggressive, move is coming. Also, fascinating to think what a difference less than 4 months makes. If this deal...involving Diaz...had been made on April 1 (not that such deals are often made in that time-frame), we all would have been dancing in the streets or doubled over in laughter at the incompetence of the Marlin FO.
  2. jkcarew
    Defensive contribution to WAR is inflated for players that play center-field (see Max Kepler). It's much harder to have defense contributing significantly to WAR once moved to the corner...assuming your bat warrants even playing in the corner. He needs to keep moving the bar in the positive direction with the bat. Having said that, even at this current/2019 level (not yet 26) he's very good...and from this point forward, the primary challenge might simply be...WAR/G is only truly valuable when you play games. He's got to be in the lineup consistently...eventually...somehow.
  3. jkcarew
    As has been pointed out numerous times by numerous posters in these threads...something has to be done with the rotation between now and next March...regardless of whether the FO thinks something needs to be done this week. 60% of the rotation are going to be free agents...and there are zero obvious options (for 2020) in the minors IMO, you might as well try to get a controllable (even if just for 2020) starter now, before the deadline, and kill two birds. Even if the guy isn't 'guaranteed' to move the needle in the post-season, you still need to worry about getting there this year and again next year.
  4. jkcarew
    The annual ‘Twins won’t be intimidated against the Yankees’ narrative is so cute. The Twins will best the Yankees when they have a better team than the Yankees. There is no jinx or intimidation factor to agonize over when one team is simply better than the other. The fact that the gap is smaller than it’s been in recent memory is really no consolation.
  5. jkcarew
    I’m not buying. They are every day players that (for the large majority of the season) have batted 1-2 in the order. There is bound to be a correlation of some strength when those spots go hot/cold. But the strength of the offense is that the depth exists to survive, and survive quite nicely for periods, with other guys carrying them. I would do this concept on the top of the rotation...Berrios and at least one of Gibson and Odorrizi need to pitch well, and deep (even by today’s standards) into games...or the Twins will continue to slide to the edge of the playoff picture. Because, when it comes to the pitching staff as a whole, we have the opposite of depth.
  6. jkcarew
    I do think Davis is probably a perfect example of how results in the 2019 International League need to be evaluated 'carefully'. His results in AA this year were good, after the promotion to Rochester, his results have been ridiculous. But if you look closer at his AAA results, you see that his K-rate ticked up (only slightly), and his BB-rate took a hit....not unexpected after a promotion. But with Rochester, every time he puts the ball in play it seems to be bounding off the fences or flying over them...the HR rate at Rochester is more than double what it was at Pensacola.
  7. jkcarew
    Actually, OBP-wise, Buxton doesn't help. Both Cave and Gonzalez have better OBP's. Offensively, Buxton is 'more-of-the-same'...doubles and HR and low OBP. Twins team OPS+ is 119, Buxton's is 107. Team's OBP is .339, Buxton's is .308. But, we agree, he makes the bottom of the order better overall...and was showing signs of taking further steps.
  8. jkcarew
    This. Record while in/out of the lineup is next to meaningless in itself. He's OPS+'ing 107 (we'll take it!) in the 9 hole. We're much better defensively in the outfield with him. The outfield defense hasn't been a primary contributing factor is losses.
  9. jkcarew
    A 5 for 5 should always get a mention, even when a teammate hits 3 HR’s. Jaylin Davis went 5 for 5 with 3 doubles. Apparently, his launcher wasn’t launching. Johanna Duran’s turn in the rotation came up...so you knew Fort Myers wasn’t going to manage to score a run.
  10. jkcarew
    But, I don't think strait math does it justice, does it? If you never know when you'll have the next chance...if that next chance is never guaranteed...it can still make sense to goose the current odds even marginally, because you're goosing 'high' odds. In this argument, I don't care about theoretical future chances of a pennant going from 10% to 18% as much as I care about this years odds going from 33 to 38. It's a game, so it comes down to philosophy. But, to the extent that some will look at it as strait math...the math would need to assume not only how much an acquired player(s) increase odds in a vacuum...but also how much the odds decrease if no moves are made (as other contenders will certainly not remain static...that will be the case this year, and in every other year the Twins might be in a position to compete). I don't argue the math, but think there is a point where it is 'worth' it, despite the math. (Not to mention that some prospect trades solve future roster log-jambs.)
  11. jkcarew
    Adding Vazquez, or even Vazquez and Kennedy doesn't make the Twins WS favorites. For that to be even remotely true, you'd have to assume the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees do nothing at the deadline to goose their odds further. But, even in that unlikely scenario, it's doubtful the Twins odds would surpass the Astros, and still wouldn't approach the Dodgers. I'm not saying that means you shouldn't do anything...or that aggressiveness isn't warranted. As I mentioned, you probably need to be fairly aggressive just to maintain 'good/decent' odds.
  12. jkcarew
    Keoni Cavaco is .186 /.239 /.256...his OPS is .495 It's an extremely small sample. But, some reports at draft time had him as extremely raw. And he doesn't seem to be exactly ahead of the competition so far in the GCL.
  13. jkcarew
    In his small-sample (127 PA) AAA season so far, Jaylin Davis has a higher HR-rate (much higher) than Brent Rooker...and a lower K-rate. Meanwhile, we can assume he's a much superior defensive outfielder than Rooker (numbers back this up; Rochester has already played Davis 5 games in CF, etc.). Davis is 4 months older than Rooker. Of course, even if the sample was larger, this doesn't mean much. By all accounts, and despite his swing-and-miss challenges, Rooker was/is the much more polished power-hitting prospect. But still....maybe we should gtk Jaylin Davis all over again?... http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/get-to-know-kernels-outfielder-jaylin-davis-r5199
  14. jkcarew
    The biggest culprit in terms of offensive value seems to be that Gordon has not demonstrated any power this year. Three HR in 268 PA...in the 2019 International league, yet. He was showing signs of that tool emerging back in 2017, but no. Same problem Lamonte Wade has...at least Gordon is a middle infielder. Then again Gordon has a higher SLG than the .401 Luis Arraez showed in his 237 minor-league PA this year So, you never know.
  15. jkcarew
    To date, three of the four weakest SoS in MLB are from the AL Central. Cleveland weakest, Twins basically tied for 3rd weakest. This was expected. Cleveland more or less not trying to win games, but will likely continue to track toward a playoff appearance that they'd just as soon defer.
  16. jkcarew
    "Finally, Nightengale also reported that the owner of the Cincinnati Reds, who currently have the second worst record in the National League, wants to stay in the league as long as possible." So far, so good! They've stayed in the league since 1869.
  17. jkcarew
    Still, he's now played in 10 of 19 games...and he didn't really have a late start. It's noteworthy. He's either been nursing an injury, or this is a deliberate approach for his development. Would be interesting to know which.
  18. jkcarew
    "After laying waste to the Appalachian League with nine home runs in 23 games, OF Albee Weiss was promoted to Cedar Rapids." I don't know if I'd call a .295 OBP and 37 K in 105 PA 'laying waste' to the Appalachian League. All that swing-and-miss is why Weiss was repeating the Appy League in the first place. And since he's about to turn 24, he'll need to see if he can figure it out at higher levels. All that power means he'll be shown more patience than a typical 23rd-rounder. Meanwhile, Keoni Cavaco has finally got his 10th professional game in. The GCL Twins have played 18...don't know what it means or why Cavaco has been held out of so many games. Early results are not good. The good news is that his K-rate is 'only' about 33% so far...so maybe not completely overwhelmed. It'll be interesting to see if he advances beyond the GCL in this, his draft year. That was the case for Kirilloff (drafted 15th) who advanced to Elizabethton...but not convinced that will be the case for Cavaco (drafted 13th). (Buxton advanced to Elizabethton and Lewis to Cedar Rapids.)
  19. jkcarew
    Not sure that if I needed one game, that I wouldn’t choose Odorizzi to start that game over Berrios at this point in time. Better WIP, FIP, ERA, K/9. Berrios better work horse and track record over the last couple of years.
  20. jkcarew
    Twins now 1-5 in Berrios’s last 6 starts.
  21. jkcarew
    Best wishes for Chase De Jong. Sometimes, I feel worse for guys like De Jong than the guys who wash out early. Been a pro for 8+ years, had a couple of good AAA showings...but hit the wall there. Much better career than most that get the opportunity...but still has to be tough.
  22. jkcarew
    This. I think the thing that we forget about Kielty, is that although a switch-hitter, he was already showing signs of being a terrible left-handed hitter. Hence, the need to platoon him....and you wanted to platoon him with a proven left-handed bat/outfielder...which the Twins didn't really have (Mike Ryan). In acquiring Stewart, the Twins got much better against right-handed pitching...and didn't go materially backward against left-handed pitching.
  23. jkcarew
    Exceptionally Raw would probably be appropriate, as well. But, at least in terms of statistical likelihood of even first round draft picks working out...I think Trevor Plouffe is probably not a bad outcome...though I'll hope for more for now
  24. jkcarew
    I don't get it.
  25. jkcarew
    4 consecutive days of getting exercise and things done around the house. President Ford said it best back in 1974...even though the break was only 3 days at that time..."My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over."
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