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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I'm a fan. IMO, Sano pretty consistently demonstrates a love of the game, of winning, and of his teammates. Becoming a great power hitter in the major leagues is a process...lot's of players experience greatness...several even right out of the gate...but relatively few sustain it. It's a process of trying to learn and trying to adjust...and it seems like Miguel has finally embarked on that process. It still won't be linear, and it remains to be seen where it will take him, but I'm encouraged and exited that he's begun the process.
  2. jkcarew
    Is Cavaco injured? Over two months into his professional career and we’re shy of 80 PA. On the back lots, maybe? Hasn’t appeared in a game for 9 days now. Very quiet debut for a #13 overall pick, to say the least.
  3. jkcarew
    Dumb play by a young guy followed by a harmless plunking of Kepler. Professionals policing themselves. Much ado about nothing.
  4. jkcarew
    Not sure Astudillo is prominent in plans unless more injuries occur. If he came back today, it's possible he'd replace Cave...but, then Cruz returns. Having said that, Sept 1 is fast approaching, and I'm sure he'd be one they'd want on the expanded roster.
  5. jkcarew
    But why would the roster situation (one spot open) preclude Thorpe being the callup? I agree that the spot is open for Graterol...and that move will be coming. But I'd guess Thorpe for this one. His last start was only 3 innings and 42 pitches three days ago...and relatively clean. Meanwhile Graterol has had two appearances and 3 innings at Pensacola since his return. In his last, he threw 14 pitches, 6 for strikes, walked two of the four batters he faced. Graterol wouldn't shock me...he's coming...but I've got a case of Grain Belt Premium that I recently found in the garage that says this one will be Thorpe.
  6. jkcarew
    If you're removing Cron from the lineup to insert Garver...probably worth a try. If Cron is healthy and simply slumping... Removing Cron from the lineup to insert Gonzalez or Adrianza...beware the small sample size trap. Those moves would be unlikely to help offensively over the longer term. And none of the options are likely to improve the infield defense materially...maybe the opposite.
  7. jkcarew
    "Max Kepler once had a 10 DRS roughly a month ago and has slumped all the way back to just 5 DRS on the season." Beware of defensive statistics. In many cases, they're downright stupid. The Twins defense has been exactly what you could have expected it to be from the very beginning of the year, but recently with the offense only scoring 5 runs a game, the errors are way more memorable/impactful. Everyone knew they would be weak on the infield and good in the outfield. The dynamic that's changed is Kepler has played more center field than ideal, Rosario has been slowed...and Arraez in place of Schoop, drops the infield another half-notch maybe. You're left with a pretty poor defensive team. Buxton back helps, but it doesn't change the dynamic. This team is not build to win with defense or pitching. The pitching and defense can be marginally better, but they'll win by beating the opposition into submission with their offense. Or they won't win.
  8. jkcarew
    Killebrew was hitting HRs at a rate of 7+% in an era when non-pitchers were hitting them at about a 2.3% rate. That's three times the rate of the league. Just for context... If Max Kepler was hitting HRs at 3x the league average in 2019 (non-pitchers)...his current 501 PA would give him 58 HR on the season. Needless to say, nobody hits home runs at the rate of 3x league average anymore.
  9. jkcarew
    This much I know for sure.... Standing in the box and looking out at that, out there on top of the mound, 60 feet six inches away....he could throw 100 90-mph fastballs over the middle of the plate and I'd never make contact. My toes would be scraping the outside of the box and I'd be bailing before his release. I guess that's why I'm a fan.
  10. jkcarew
    And then there's Gonzalez's career 101 OPS+ to Adrianza's 87. I like Adrianza as an occasional utility guy on the infield...and coming off the bench (though I wish he was faster on the bases). He's not a guy where you're going to choose to make him an every-day presence in the lineup, if you have an alternative like Gonzalez.
  11. jkcarew
    "Is his 4.0% BB rate and .386 BABIP sustainable? Probably not, we saw him do the exact same thing in 2014 when his BABIP was sky-high and it was just as unsustainable then as it is now, but it is still weird to see him back in the majors like this." While a factor, Santana's current BABiP has much less to do with his 2019 value than his HR%. Even if the BABiP starts regressing, he'll still be plenty valuable if he continues to hit home runs at his current clip of 5.38% (better than Carlos Santana, about the same as Matt Chapman).
  12. jkcarew
    What confuses me is the low (relatively) K% given he throws 100 mph at the AA level. His K% at Pensacola this year is 24.6%....slightly behind Bryan Sammons. Here are the Twins pitchers with a higher K% at the major-league level this year....Odorizzi, Rogers, May, Duffey, Poppen. Kyle Gibson is at 22.6%. Something isn't adding up quite yet. Lack of high-quality secondary pitch where everyone can sit on the FB? Poor command, tending to throw the FB over the middle of the plate? Some of each? He's 20...got plenty of time to figure that out. But, right now I'm not counting on him to come up and blow people away.
  13. jkcarew
    Take heed prospect rankers! Everyone knew Arraez would hit. But his other tools (particularly power and speed) were deemed weak and average. And there always seems to be a bias for ceiling...but doesn't give enough weight to the risk associated with the tool that is the most important tool by a mile. So, the fast and and/or powerful guy that 'might' hit gets ranked ahead of the guy that you know will hit. Having said that...I do the same thing.
  14. jkcarew
    Wiel has done very very well for himself advancing to this point as a 12th round draft pick. But he's not really having a great season. Actually, he's having his worse professional season...by far. The AAA ball (and Rochester's park) are inflating statistics pretty horrifically. Wiel's OPS is actually below Rochester's team collective OPS. His wRC+ is 98. Which is downright poor for a first baseman. But, it will be interesting to see how he does with the 'opportunity' to repeat AAA next year...as he's been significantly better at each of his previous stops in the minors....and at 26 still could be a late bloomer. Here are some wRC+ for some of the 'prospects' at Rochester... Jake Cave 146 Brent Rooker 138 LaMonte Wade 103 Nick Gordon 101 Zander Wiel 98
  15. jkcarew
    No mention of Romero?
  16. jkcarew
    Agree that you continue to play Javier. But it sure looks like it was a mistake to start him in A ball when he finally came back. That wasn’t necessary given the timing of his return.
  17. jkcarew
    Interesting article. Gives pause, for sure...but, I think I'm with vavo above...the biggest difference to my eyeballs is that the breaking pitch doesn't seem to be the weapon that it was. The velocity data notwithstanding, the 'mediocre' results seem to be tied more to the quality and command of the breaking ball...it not resulting in swings and misses and chases. IMO, we're simply seeing what he is. If he was any stronger/more durable and if his stuff was much better, he'd be Cole or deGrom or Verlander...or a prime version of Kluber, Scherzer, Kershaw, or Greinke. Instead, he's just very good...but can't be counted on to frequently dominate good lineups. You'd be golden if you had more than one of him. When he's your top, though...you're probably not going to have a match-up advantage in the post-season. So far. He's just 25. But for now, you're probably going to need to rest him at some point between now and October. I'd want it to be during a stretch against the bottom of the ALC.
  18. jkcarew
    Yes, the injuries, whether major or minor, have always been a factor in every single professional season Graterol has had. The question is not so much "what will the Twins be willing to try with Graterol?"...the question is more..."how can you best use him before he breaks down?" To assume you can ask him to handle even a #5-type load of 20+ starts (say 135-150 innings) in 2020...and then still have him available and effective in the advent of a post-season...that seems unreasonably optimistic...regardless of what happens this fall.
  19. jkcarew
    Twins now 3-8 in Berrios’s last 11 starts. The 3 wins came against the Royals, White Sox, and Marlins. For those that defend the send of Cron in Saturday’s game because there were 2 out... The 2-out situation has never been an automatic send. Not when it’s Yasiel Puig’s arm against CJ Cron’s legs, the ball is hit hard directly at a shallow Puig, and most importantly, the alternative to sending is Kepler up with the bases juiced. Puig throws Cron out on that play at least 8 times out of 10. As Gary Gaetti famously said back in 1984 when the younger Twins players were struggling during their first real pennant race...”it’s hard to hit with both hands wrapped around your throat.” I guess the same can be said of coaching 3rd base.
  20. jkcarew
    It's adding that extra column to all the databases...and re-writing win% formulas. Reports are the tech workers refuse to do it until they're provided with meaningful defensive data. I'm on their side on this one.
  21. jkcarew
    Will be interesting to see where the staff goes with minors Hitter of the Year now that the two obvious front runners in Diaz and Davis are gone. Assuming there is a bias for the full-season affiliates (CR, Ft Myers, Pensacola, Rochester), the pickings are pretty slim...lots of poor to mediocre results combined with injury-aborted breakouts...and a sprinkle of 30+ year-old journeymen. Probably this next/last month determines the honor. At this point in time, I'd go with Travis Blankenhorn. And wondering when Rooker is going to come back from the worse groin injury ever. Pitching-wise, there are more guys out there with shinny numbers...but not necessarily the names you would want or have expected at the beginning of the year. Right now, I'd go with Randy Dobnak.
  22. jkcarew
    If your wife thinks getting to 2nd base is only the 25 yard-line.....well, to you I say congratulations, sir!
  23. jkcarew
    The notion that the injuries related to Buxton's play in the outfield are the inevitable result of "playing hard" is beyond simplistic. There is a real and material aspect that impacts the likelihood of injury...they are abilities. One is the ability to be aware of your surroundings, even when things are happening fast around you. Another is the ability to comprehend the difference between good risks and bad risks. Buxton does not consistently demonstrate these abilities and it absolutely 100% contributes to his issues. Quarterbacks who looks like they're going to be killed, but are always able to get down at the last second...are they just lucky?...or are they not playing hard...or are they just good at recognizing where they (and others) are as the play unfolds? Quarterbacks who run out of bounds on first and second down, rather than going for the extra yards...are they not playing hard? Or are they just smart? On Wednesday against Atlanta, Jake Cave made an extremely 'hard'/aggressive play on a ball hit over the fence. He made very hard contact with the wall. But, he wasn't injured and it wasn't the result of good luck. He went after the ball in an effective way (if the ball had been hit just a couple of feet shorter, he would have caught it)...but, he did so in a manner that protected his limbs and his head...he did so in a way that mitigated the risk/likelihood of injury. He could make that exact same attempt...successfully making the play on occasion...100 times without sustaining an injury beyond sore ribs.
  24. jkcarew
    Two options are to either continue his development as a starter by building him back up in the minors....or, immediately (more or less) bringing him up to be a reliever or 'opener'. I say bring him up, and see what happens. He can be converted back to a starter for a future season (not that I think that's likely).
  25. jkcarew
    Unlike many of Byron Buxton's 'bad breaks'...I'm not sure this 'fiasco' could have been realistically avoided.
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