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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    "Is his 4.0% BB rate and .386 BABIP sustainable? Probably not, we saw him do the exact same thing in 2014 when his BABIP was sky-high and it was just as unsustainable then as it is now, but it is still weird to see him back in the majors like this." While a factor, Santana's current BABiP has much less to do with his 2019 value than his HR%. Even if the BABiP starts regressing, he'll still be plenty valuable if he continues to hit home runs at his current clip of 5.38% (better than Carlos Santana, about the same as Matt Chapman).
  2. jkcarew
    What confuses me is the low (relatively) K% given he throws 100 mph at the AA level. His K% at Pensacola this year is 24.6%....slightly behind Bryan Sammons. Here are the Twins pitchers with a higher K% at the major-league level this year....Odorizzi, Rogers, May, Duffey, Poppen. Kyle Gibson is at 22.6%. Something isn't adding up quite yet. Lack of high-quality secondary pitch where everyone can sit on the FB? Poor command, tending to throw the FB over the middle of the plate? Some of each? He's 20...got plenty of time to figure that out. But, right now I'm not counting on him to come up and blow people away.
  3. jkcarew
    Take heed prospect rankers! Everyone knew Arraez would hit. But his other tools (particularly power and speed) were deemed weak and average. And there always seems to be a bias for ceiling...but doesn't give enough weight to the risk associated with the tool that is the most important tool by a mile. So, the fast and and/or powerful guy that 'might' hit gets ranked ahead of the guy that you know will hit. Having said that...I do the same thing.
  4. jkcarew
    Wiel has done very very well for himself advancing to this point as a 12th round draft pick. But he's not really having a great season. Actually, he's having his worse professional season...by far. The AAA ball (and Rochester's park) are inflating statistics pretty horrifically. Wiel's OPS is actually below Rochester's team collective OPS. His wRC+ is 98. Which is downright poor for a first baseman. But, it will be interesting to see how he does with the 'opportunity' to repeat AAA next year...as he's been significantly better at each of his previous stops in the minors....and at 26 still could be a late bloomer. Here are some wRC+ for some of the 'prospects' at Rochester... Jake Cave 146 Brent Rooker 138 LaMonte Wade 103 Nick Gordon 101 Zander Wiel 98
  5. jkcarew
    No mention of Romero?
  6. jkcarew
    Agree that you continue to play Javier. But it sure looks like it was a mistake to start him in A ball when he finally came back. That wasn’t necessary given the timing of his return.
  7. jkcarew
    Interesting article. Gives pause, for sure...but, I think I'm with vavo above...the biggest difference to my eyeballs is that the breaking pitch doesn't seem to be the weapon that it was. The velocity data notwithstanding, the 'mediocre' results seem to be tied more to the quality and command of the breaking ball...it not resulting in swings and misses and chases. IMO, we're simply seeing what he is. If he was any stronger/more durable and if his stuff was much better, he'd be Cole or deGrom or Verlander...or a prime version of Kluber, Scherzer, Kershaw, or Greinke. Instead, he's just very good...but can't be counted on to frequently dominate good lineups. You'd be golden if you had more than one of him. When he's your top, though...you're probably not going to have a match-up advantage in the post-season. So far. He's just 25. But for now, you're probably going to need to rest him at some point between now and October. I'd want it to be during a stretch against the bottom of the ALC.
  8. jkcarew
    Yes, the injuries, whether major or minor, have always been a factor in every single professional season Graterol has had. The question is not so much "what will the Twins be willing to try with Graterol?"...the question is more..."how can you best use him before he breaks down?" To assume you can ask him to handle even a #5-type load of 20+ starts (say 135-150 innings) in 2020...and then still have him available and effective in the advent of a post-season...that seems unreasonably optimistic...regardless of what happens this fall.
  9. jkcarew
    Twins now 3-8 in Berrios’s last 11 starts. The 3 wins came against the Royals, White Sox, and Marlins. For those that defend the send of Cron in Saturday’s game because there were 2 out... The 2-out situation has never been an automatic send. Not when it’s Yasiel Puig’s arm against CJ Cron’s legs, the ball is hit hard directly at a shallow Puig, and most importantly, the alternative to sending is Kepler up with the bases juiced. Puig throws Cron out on that play at least 8 times out of 10. As Gary Gaetti famously said back in 1984 when the younger Twins players were struggling during their first real pennant race...”it’s hard to hit with both hands wrapped around your throat.” I guess the same can be said of coaching 3rd base.
  10. jkcarew
    It's adding that extra column to all the databases...and re-writing win% formulas. Reports are the tech workers refuse to do it until they're provided with meaningful defensive data. I'm on their side on this one.
  11. jkcarew
    Will be interesting to see where the staff goes with minors Hitter of the Year now that the two obvious front runners in Diaz and Davis are gone. Assuming there is a bias for the full-season affiliates (CR, Ft Myers, Pensacola, Rochester), the pickings are pretty slim...lots of poor to mediocre results combined with injury-aborted breakouts...and a sprinkle of 30+ year-old journeymen. Probably this next/last month determines the honor. At this point in time, I'd go with Travis Blankenhorn. And wondering when Rooker is going to come back from the worse groin injury ever. Pitching-wise, there are more guys out there with shinny numbers...but not necessarily the names you would want or have expected at the beginning of the year. Right now, I'd go with Randy Dobnak.
  12. jkcarew
    If your wife thinks getting to 2nd base is only the 25 yard-line.....well, to you I say congratulations, sir!
  13. jkcarew
    The notion that the injuries related to Buxton's play in the outfield are the inevitable result of "playing hard" is beyond simplistic. There is a real and material aspect that impacts the likelihood of injury...they are abilities. One is the ability to be aware of your surroundings, even when things are happening fast around you. Another is the ability to comprehend the difference between good risks and bad risks. Buxton does not consistently demonstrate these abilities and it absolutely 100% contributes to his issues. Quarterbacks who looks like they're going to be killed, but are always able to get down at the last second...are they just lucky?...or are they not playing hard...or are they just good at recognizing where they (and others) are as the play unfolds? Quarterbacks who run out of bounds on first and second down, rather than going for the extra yards...are they not playing hard? Or are they just smart? On Wednesday against Atlanta, Jake Cave made an extremely 'hard'/aggressive play on a ball hit over the fence. He made very hard contact with the wall. But, he wasn't injured and it wasn't the result of good luck. He went after the ball in an effective way (if the ball had been hit just a couple of feet shorter, he would have caught it)...but, he did so in a manner that protected his limbs and his head...he did so in a way that mitigated the risk/likelihood of injury. He could make that exact same attempt...successfully making the play on occasion...100 times without sustaining an injury beyond sore ribs.
  14. jkcarew
    Two options are to either continue his development as a starter by building him back up in the minors....or, immediately (more or less) bringing him up to be a reliever or 'opener'. I say bring him up, and see what happens. He can be converted back to a starter for a future season (not that I think that's likely).
  15. jkcarew
    Unlike many of Byron Buxton's 'bad breaks'...I'm not sure this 'fiasco' could have been realistically avoided.
  16. jkcarew
    Who are the starting pitchers extending this window into 2020 and beyond? We going to have 4 rookie of the year candidates in the next two years in Thorpe, Graterol, Duran, and Balazovic? Interesting plan.
  17. jkcarew
    Astudillo.
  18. jkcarew
    From the very beginning of the year, he seems to have been more aggressive throwing the ball over the plate to get ahead early in the count. The results have been pretty predictable. Walk rate has declined a bit, and hits allowed rate has increased a bit. The extra hits have not resulted in more HR’s allowed. And the aggressiveness in the zone has resulted in an improvement in pitches per PA, (although probably contributing to a slight decrease in his K rate.) Other than that, his results are almost identical to last year’s. He’s improved marginally. He’s good. But, he wasn’t a legitimate Cy Young candidate as of 7:00pm on Tuesday, let alone 9:00pm.
  19. jkcarew
    Interesting responses to this. IMO, Berrios has been neither horrible or particularly good (by number 1 standards) in this stretch. The stretch includes one or two 'great' starts along with this clunker. He hasn't given up a ton of runs in this stretch, but nor has he done a great job of consistently pitching efficiently and deep in a manner that would shut down great lineups and/or protect our weak bullpen. I'm simply stating that, in games where our best pitcher pitches, (and often faces the opposition's better pitchers), the Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games...only beating very weak opponents. My opinion...it will be a challenge in the post-season...and the Twins should be aggressive in trading (in the off-season, since the trade deadline is gone) for more top-of-rotation pitching.
  20. jkcarew
    Semantics. Let's go with avoidable, instead of reckless. There have been many center fielders in history that were aggressive in attempting difficult catches. Many knew how to mitigate risk while doing so, and, in fact, were rarely injured. Others, including Buxton, don't/didn't know how to do that. Agree that some of his missed time has been unavoidable...the hbp, etc. But, much has been avoidable.
  21. jkcarew
    Twins now 3-7 in Berrios’s last 10 starts. The wins coming against the Royals, White Sox, and Marlins.
  22. jkcarew
    Also worth maintaining some perspective on where Davis was doing what he was doing. Rochester's team OPS is .829...and Jake Cave was OPS'ing .984. In his 250+ PA at Pensacola this season, Davis was still very good, but the numbers/results were not stupid like we're seeing in AAA this year. At Pensacola, his results were basically the same as Travis Blankenhorn's this year. Relative to Blankenhorn, Davis showed slightly LESS power and slightly more BB/OBP...(and fwiw, Blankenhorn is two years younger than Davis). Still, it seems obvious Davis has hit a new level in his development. He will be an interesting one to watch. I hope he does well...he's earned the opportunity.
  23. jkcarew
    The backup outfielder debate....if he performs like a starter, we want him in the lineup every day instead of whichever starter is slumping that week. If he doesn't perform immediately, we want any number of other minor-leaguers and/or prospects to replace him. This isn't 2018 where we were forced to play Robbie Grossman. With the make-up of the 2019 club, Cave isn't going to have to play anywhere close to every day, until/unless Rosario or Kepler were to go down. Hope that doesn't happen...but, until it does, it's probably a good bet that Rocco is fine with options like Gonzalez, Cave, Arraez, Adrianza...and doesn't feel like he needs to take still-developing guys with zero major league experience and plop them into the middle of a pennant race. Doing that...or going with a guy like Wade, who is a below-average offensive player in the league he's already playing in...are desperate actions that could be warranted down the line, But we're not there yet, and I hope we don't get there.
  24. jkcarew
    In following the Twins minor league clubs this summer, I'm reminded that the Twins have 3 of their most important developmental operations stationed at the very rainiest spots on the continent. That's a statistical fact regarding the areas of the gulf that include Pensacola and Ft Myers....homes to the clubs lowest-level rookie, A+, and AA operations. I assume (almost) all the games get played eventually...although many end up being of the 7-inning make-up variety. It can't help overall development....or, it at least makes some fundamental aspects of development more challenging. (Graterol's current rehab work with the GCL Twins comes to mind, as well as the always-challenging task of managing pitchers' in-game developmental opportunities). Meanwhile, there's zero chance the Twins shift to the southwest and give up the spring-time revenue associated with the Ft. Myers location.
  25. jkcarew
    + Fernando Romero
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