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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    This. Record while in/out of the lineup is next to meaningless in itself. He's OPS+'ing 107 (we'll take it!) in the 9 hole. We're much better defensively in the outfield with him. The outfield defense hasn't been a primary contributing factor is losses.
  2. jkcarew
    A 5 for 5 should always get a mention, even when a teammate hits 3 HR’s. Jaylin Davis went 5 for 5 with 3 doubles. Apparently, his launcher wasn’t launching. Johanna Duran’s turn in the rotation came up...so you knew Fort Myers wasn’t going to manage to score a run.
  3. jkcarew
    But, I don't think strait math does it justice, does it? If you never know when you'll have the next chance...if that next chance is never guaranteed...it can still make sense to goose the current odds even marginally, because you're goosing 'high' odds. In this argument, I don't care about theoretical future chances of a pennant going from 10% to 18% as much as I care about this years odds going from 33 to 38. It's a game, so it comes down to philosophy. But, to the extent that some will look at it as strait math...the math would need to assume not only how much an acquired player(s) increase odds in a vacuum...but also how much the odds decrease if no moves are made (as other contenders will certainly not remain static...that will be the case this year, and in every other year the Twins might be in a position to compete). I don't argue the math, but think there is a point where it is 'worth' it, despite the math. (Not to mention that some prospect trades solve future roster log-jambs.)
  4. jkcarew
    Adding Vazquez, or even Vazquez and Kennedy doesn't make the Twins WS favorites. For that to be even remotely true, you'd have to assume the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees do nothing at the deadline to goose their odds further. But, even in that unlikely scenario, it's doubtful the Twins odds would surpass the Astros, and still wouldn't approach the Dodgers. I'm not saying that means you shouldn't do anything...or that aggressiveness isn't warranted. As I mentioned, you probably need to be fairly aggressive just to maintain 'good/decent' odds.
  5. jkcarew
    Keoni Cavaco is .186 /.239 /.256...his OPS is .495 It's an extremely small sample. But, some reports at draft time had him as extremely raw. And he doesn't seem to be exactly ahead of the competition so far in the GCL.
  6. jkcarew
    In his small-sample (127 PA) AAA season so far, Jaylin Davis has a higher HR-rate (much higher) than Brent Rooker...and a lower K-rate. Meanwhile, we can assume he's a much superior defensive outfielder than Rooker (numbers back this up; Rochester has already played Davis 5 games in CF, etc.). Davis is 4 months older than Rooker. Of course, even if the sample was larger, this doesn't mean much. By all accounts, and despite his swing-and-miss challenges, Rooker was/is the much more polished power-hitting prospect. But still....maybe we should gtk Jaylin Davis all over again?... http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/get-to-know-kernels-outfielder-jaylin-davis-r5199
  7. jkcarew
    The biggest culprit in terms of offensive value seems to be that Gordon has not demonstrated any power this year. Three HR in 268 PA...in the 2019 International league, yet. He was showing signs of that tool emerging back in 2017, but no. Same problem Lamonte Wade has...at least Gordon is a middle infielder. Then again Gordon has a higher SLG than the .401 Luis Arraez showed in his 237 minor-league PA this year So, you never know.
  8. jkcarew
    To date, three of the four weakest SoS in MLB are from the AL Central. Cleveland weakest, Twins basically tied for 3rd weakest. This was expected. Cleveland more or less not trying to win games, but will likely continue to track toward a playoff appearance that they'd just as soon defer.
  9. jkcarew
    "Finally, Nightengale also reported that the owner of the Cincinnati Reds, who currently have the second worst record in the National League, wants to stay in the league as long as possible." So far, so good! They've stayed in the league since 1869.
  10. jkcarew
    Still, he's now played in 10 of 19 games...and he didn't really have a late start. It's noteworthy. He's either been nursing an injury, or this is a deliberate approach for his development. Would be interesting to know which.
  11. jkcarew
    "After laying waste to the Appalachian League with nine home runs in 23 games, OF Albee Weiss was promoted to Cedar Rapids." I don't know if I'd call a .295 OBP and 37 K in 105 PA 'laying waste' to the Appalachian League. All that swing-and-miss is why Weiss was repeating the Appy League in the first place. And since he's about to turn 24, he'll need to see if he can figure it out at higher levels. All that power means he'll be shown more patience than a typical 23rd-rounder. Meanwhile, Keoni Cavaco has finally got his 10th professional game in. The GCL Twins have played 18...don't know what it means or why Cavaco has been held out of so many games. Early results are not good. The good news is that his K-rate is 'only' about 33% so far...so maybe not completely overwhelmed. It'll be interesting to see if he advances beyond the GCL in this, his draft year. That was the case for Kirilloff (drafted 15th) who advanced to Elizabethton...but not convinced that will be the case for Cavaco (drafted 13th). (Buxton advanced to Elizabethton and Lewis to Cedar Rapids.)
  12. jkcarew
    Not sure that if I needed one game, that I wouldn’t choose Odorizzi to start that game over Berrios at this point in time. Better WIP, FIP, ERA, K/9. Berrios better work horse and track record over the last couple of years.
  13. jkcarew
    Twins now 1-5 in Berrios’s last 6 starts.
  14. jkcarew
    Best wishes for Chase De Jong. Sometimes, I feel worse for guys like De Jong than the guys who wash out early. Been a pro for 8+ years, had a couple of good AAA showings...but hit the wall there. Much better career than most that get the opportunity...but still has to be tough.
  15. jkcarew
    This. I think the thing that we forget about Kielty, is that although a switch-hitter, he was already showing signs of being a terrible left-handed hitter. Hence, the need to platoon him....and you wanted to platoon him with a proven left-handed bat/outfielder...which the Twins didn't really have (Mike Ryan). In acquiring Stewart, the Twins got much better against right-handed pitching...and didn't go materially backward against left-handed pitching.
  16. jkcarew
    Exceptionally Raw would probably be appropriate, as well. But, at least in terms of statistical likelihood of even first round draft picks working out...I think Trevor Plouffe is probably not a bad outcome...though I'll hope for more for now
  17. jkcarew
    I don't get it.
  18. jkcarew
    4 consecutive days of getting exercise and things done around the house. President Ford said it best back in 1974...even though the break was only 3 days at that time..."My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over."
  19. jkcarew
    The summary for our first round draft pick (and #7 prospect) needs to be changed from "Did Not Play" to "Seldom Plays" or even "Never Plays" or "Injured", maybe?
  20. jkcarew
    I'm not outraged...but it's not helping the quality of the game...in case this was a deliberate act, it was the wrong one, IMO. I do wonder, however...is this significant enough to be resulting in 'false' evaluations of players at the AAA and MLB level? Yes, we're getting false results in absolute terms, but I'm talking about relative terms. Is there a player (or type/profile) out there that is benefiting dis-proportionally from this? If the 2020 ball immediately goes back to 'average' in terms of drag...are there certain players that immediately become materially less valuable relative to average/replacement? I wonder if this type of possibility is even on FO radars?
  21. jkcarew
    Reports of the demise of the Cleveland Indians were premature. They have the exact same record at the break that they had last year...when they went on to win 91 games. But IMO, the relevant target still should not be Cleveland...the Twins are still in a position to be able to win the division by going something like 38-35 in the second half. The target/objective should be being relevant in a post-season series against the likes of NYY, Astros, a hot Red Sox club, etc.
  22. jkcarew
    I think the season so far is a sum of lots of pleasant surprises that are (relatively) small. I think that's implicit in the Thrylos post above. Lots of players...almost all players...improving on recent norms. Regarding Buxton: "As a guy who lifts the ball at a higher rate than anyone else on the team, and has otherworldly speed, I'd expect a higher BABIP for Buxton than his current .302" How would the fact that Buxton's putting more balls in the air play with Buxton's speed to raise his BABiP? Buxton's BABiP is slightly down this year probably for two reasons...one, he's hitting the ball in the air more, specifically on the infield, and two, he's swinging earlier in the count (which is helping keep the K% down, but can lead to some softer contact as you try to cover the entire plate on almost every pitch you see). But I agree with the final conclusion in that I think Buxton is showing signs of more in the tank. But I think the primary drivers will be growth in BB% and also harder contact as he gets more confident with the new him.
  23. jkcarew
    Wander Javier is broke. To be expected, really, when you're 18, then don't play a game for two years, then are thrown into a higher level than when you last played. Kinda a testament to what the Twins think of Javier that they started him off in Cedar Rapids under those circumstances. Looks like that might have been a mistake, though. Meanwhile, Jaylin Davis. Hard to know what to make of his first 85 AAA PA's. The SLG is off the charts, but then again, it's the International League where the parks are pretty obviously too small for the juiced ball. Then again, he's kept a cap on the K% so far. Could we have another small college, low-ish draft pick, (relatively) late bloomer...Garver style...here? We can hope.
  24. jkcarew
    Horrible play by Buxton. If you tag there, you jog down the base-path a few feet to observe the flight of the ball. If it's airmailed in the direction of home, you break to 3rd in a 'delayed' fashion. You might be safe, but if you're out, the catcher (or a deep cutoff player) is the one throwing you out, and the run scores. If you want to be 'aggressive', that's how you do it on that play. With one out and the ball hit where it was and another runner tagging from 3rd, you never...under any circumstances...just put your head down and sprint as fast as you can to third and get yourself thrown out. Especially in a tight game where runs are hard to come by. That, obviously, made it an even stranger decision. Having said that, mistakes and weird stuff happen. The bigger problem recently has been the lack of consistency with the offense. It's probably a safe bet that, even with needed improvements, pitching overall for the Twins is going to be 'just ok'. The offense has to be better than that to continue the ride.
  25. jkcarew
    Wondering when the leg kick is going to go...still waiting. Even on his 35-hopper pulled through the whole, the leg kick seemed mis-timed and a hindrance, but quick hips and hands bailed him out. Meanwhile, he really does glide around out there...really smooth and athletic looking. Easy to see why he's a top prospect. We'll just have to wait a bit to see how the bat comes around.
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