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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    So…when active rosters expand to about 30? ?
  2. jkcarew
    Except for what still would have been a 2-run homer…and about 500 mph-worth of exit velocity this inning.
  3. jkcarew
    …or get ahead in the count.
  4. jkcarew
    Twins collectively realizing they need to get home and try to find what they did with their passports.
  5. jkcarew
    His HR% and HR/FB are suddenly Sano-like. And the contact was always pretty good. If anyone had seen that coming, he’d still be here. Or, at least we would have got more than Shaun Anderson in the trade. ?
  6. jkcarew
    One of the sneakiest, under-the-radar, silver linings of 2021 has been what Celestino has done in AAA this season.
  7. jkcarew
    I don’t quite get the angst over Simmons. The contract was well worth plugging a defensive whole at SS for a team that figured to mash and figured to contend. And it was a 1-year contract for a reason. The Twins thought they had an answer for 2022. Meanwhile, the defensive production has been about what was expected. The offense? wRC+ of 58 with a 250 BABiP. In 2019 it was 79 with a 277 BABiP. (Inflated BABiP in small sample last year.) I mean the difference just isn’t that material for the club that the Twins were supposed to be. Those that let things like his anti-vax stance color their opinion…well, that’s their prerogative. I don’t agree with Simmons decision in a team sport scenario, but it had zero impact on the season. Also, some here are super frustrated that he continues to play. It is frustrating. But it’s not Simmons fault.
  8. jkcarew
    Fwiw, not sure ‘most’ hold WAR as THE number, given how it can be significantly influenced by questionable and often just plain nonsensical defensive metrics. But, certainly not BA. Maybe OPS, wRC+…maybe WAR, but certainly not BA.
  9. jkcarew
    Not even close. And as has been mentioned…not even that close to the worse this year.
  10. jkcarew
    It’s an actual risk in the real world where resource constraints exist. It’s not a risk in an academic/theoretical sense if you assume no constraints on resources. In other words, it is, in fact, risky for the Twins. (Again, doesn’t mean it can never be justified.) Meanwhile, it’s not risky for the Dodgers and the Yankees. For them, it’s smart, because when it does go wrong…and it can go wrong…they can simply spend good money after bad to get themselves out of the whole.
  11. jkcarew
    Great job…lots of work and interesting numbers. Still, there’s great risk in mid-market teams extending huge long-term deals. Doesn’t mean it should never be done, but there’s huge risk. It’s called opportunity cost. What if you’re wrong?…and even if you’re right, you create other issues which can materialize sometimes sooner rather than later. We can pretend the Twins (and most other teams) can or ‘should’ look at it as in this analysis. But in fact only 2 or 3 teams can operate in this kind of a vacuum where the top guys can be targeted on a consistent basis.
  12. jkcarew
    You don’t mean Keon Broxton, do you? The Keon Broxton that spent all season proving that he can’t hit AAA pitching? The Keon Broxton that was released by the Saints and is now 0 for 4 with a walk and 3 K’s on Milwaukee’s rookie league team?
  13. jkcarew
    The issue with Dobnak is not how he’s been used or injuries…it’s that he’s eminently hittable. The only reasons to give him more chances are his age and the desperate pitching situation. Even the Twins can afford to eat the guaranteed portion of that contract. And I expect they will if Dobnak doesn’t turn a corner next year.
  14. jkcarew
    How about we look at OBP (if you refuse to consider OPS)…the rate at which players get on base as opposed to making outs? How does Austudillo look now?
  15. jkcarew
    Interesting and thoughtful take.
  16. jkcarew
    I didn’t want to ‘like’ this…but, yeah. He wasn’t good. You’d think there would have been one guy slightly more worthy of garnering honorable mention.
  17. jkcarew
    Too early to call him a bust…but he has all the makings of a bust and seems to be making good progress in that direction. He was a reach where he was picked and almost all based on the dreaded ‘projection’…which means, there’s a ton better baseball players available, but this guy is going to be bigger, faster, and stronger than all of them. This can mean you end up with an all-star caliber player. But it usually means the world gets one more big, fast, strong insurance salesman. Full disclosure: I hated the pick. He can’t hit, and what’s worse, he’s not a shortstop, which means he’s light years from hitting enough to play in the majors. He has time still. But there’s no way he should have been a 13th overall pick. Levi Michael was a 30th overall pick. Which is about where Cavaco was projected by consensus before the Twins left us scratching our heads.
  18. jkcarew
    High leverage?? Were there six guys on base when Gordon batted? Even if there had been a ‘high leverage’ point in this game (there wasn’t)…it still wouldn’t have been actual high leverage because the games absolutely don’t matter at this point. And then there’s this….why WOULD you keep your best defensive player in a game like this? I’ve got some issues with Rocco, but not at all for something like this under these circumstances. Not even close.
  19. jkcarew
    You would’ve hated Harmon Killebrew. ?
  20. jkcarew
    But, Palacios is 2-3 with his 19th HR. I’m turning over a new leaf.
  21. jkcarew
    Feeling sorry for myself. Wanted company.
  22. jkcarew
    On a happier note, Balazovic allowed 9 baserunners in 4.2 innings tonight with 3 K’s. Sigh.
  23. jkcarew
    He’s flailing away like he might think it does.
  24. jkcarew
    And all his 609 OPS is costing the Cubs is $21M a year…more next year. Those two facts explain why he’s still on the team.
  25. jkcarew
    Mmm…I’ll go as far as to say ‘consistent’. I know the numbers may lean toward that ‘g’ word you used. I just know that I’d hate to have to play behind him 25-30 times a year.
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