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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Let's not confuse cause and affect too much here. Baldelli's basically never managed a team that's spent a day outside of first place. He's never managed in a race, never even managed a game in June. He has a team that's wildly over-achieving and playing .667 baseball. It's been beyond easy to spread playing time, and portray a 'soft'/patient vibe. Fast forward to a hypothetical 2020 scenario. It's mid-July, and the Twins with high expectations, have been under-performing for weeks, and were just beat 3 games to 1 in a series against the upstart White Sox to fall into a tie for first place in the central. Tougher to stick with the ideal rotations at that point. And what demeanor will everyone (including leaders in the clubhouse) be looking for from Baldelli in that scenario? Every good manager has to have the 'coddling' card AND the 'field general' card in their toolbox. There were plenty of 'field managers'...the ones that did it right...that had the respect of their players. That will still be possible, I think. Every reason to be optimistic regarding Baldelli, but too early to pigeon-hole him into a category, IMO.
  2. jkcarew
    Probably worth describing the 'weakness' in context of regular season vs playoffs. For instance, it looks like the starting rotation will probably be a strength overall in the quest to win enough games to take the central division. Yet in the playoffs, where the top 3 start all games (practically), it would be very easy to argue that Berrios would likely be the worse number one among AL participants.
  3. jkcarew
    One of the things that has made the season so fun so far, is also one of the fundamental 'weaknesses' (of sorts). The schedule. The Twins have played 16 games...tied for least in MLB...against teams with winning records. Not the Twins fault, and they're 8-8 so far. But with the way the league is now, you really don't know where you stand at any point in the season until you can play a series or two against one of the few teams that is both trying to compete, and decent at trying. IMO, we'll need to continue to look at the intermittent series against the Yankees, Boston (they'll be there), Tampa, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Cleveland (I guess)...to determine where the Twins are on their path to making noise in the post-season.
  4. jkcarew
    And are we sure Taylor Grzelakowski (#23) is really only 25 years old?
  5. jkcarew
    Get it. He's putting the ball in the air a bit more...and he's making contact toward the barrel more consistently. So, ON AVERAGE, the ball is traveling further. Seems real and material. But the point I was trying to make was...that often when you simplify/shorten the swing (eliminate leg kicks, other triggers etc.) you diminish the ability to hit the ball over the fence...for a period of time, as you adjust. This seems to have been the case with Buxton, particularly for the first several weeks of the season. But he's showing signs of figuring out that part of it, as well.
  6. jkcarew
    I'll play the contrarian on Graterol. He isn't dominating like the ERA might indicate. His FIP is actually 3.12, and his BB/9 and K/9 are no better than league average. In fact his K/9 is a fraction below league average which...when you have a 100 mph fastball...is usually a pretty good indication your secondary pitches are not being particularly effective. His BABiP against is extremely low right now...100 points lower than it was last year at Fort Myers. So, I'd say...he continues to progress nicely as a 20-year old starter in AA ball. But, I doubt he's ready to help at the major league level quite yet, and I want him to start as many games as possible as he continues to develop the other pitches. I do hope he gets to AAA soon.
  7. jkcarew
    The swing seems shorter and simpler. Not sure it's generating "further" hits yet...the HR rate is actually slightly below where it was from 2015-2017. But that can change as Buxton learns how to generate the power with the lower half. Garver (very short right-handed swing) seems to have figured that out. Buxton can as well. He also simply seems to be recognizing pitches better, and guessing less. But again, that's easier when the swing is shorter and you don't have to commit as early. The BABiP is higher than it's been in his career, but not ridiculously so at 343.
  8. jkcarew
    Despite the early similarity in some obscure statistics, the 2019 Twins are almost the complete opposite of the 2015 Royals. Maybe similar in that both clubs play good defense, but that’s it. If the Twins were to pull that off...(and it seems less and less obsurd to consider)...it would be by overwhelming teams offensively. Not by winning low-scoring games with a dominant bullpen.
  9. jkcarew
    Kepler’s OBP of 305 is irrelevant for the conversation. Seems many are not grasping that Kepler is only the lead off hitter when facing right-handed starters. His OBP against righties is 331...not great, but better than Buxton’s 316. Meanwhile, Buxton has owned an OPS north of 800 for about one week in his entire career now...that being this past week. Maybe we move him up against lefties to see how that goes?
  10. jkcarew
    Ah....then, never mind Promoted from his 'rehab' in extended spring training, then? Yes, I concur...we're all waiting (and waiting) for that.
  11. jkcarew
    Must have read it too fast and thought we were talking about beer. Hey, the mind does what it will. (especially at my advanced...experience.)
  12. jkcarew
    Cabezas is my favorite prospect. The prospect of Cervezas with the Twins is glorious, especially on a day like today.
  13. jkcarew
    I wouldn't say I'm waiting for Lewis to be promoted. I thought I might be, but I'm not. Instead, I'm waiting for Lewis to show some progression offensively. We're approaching the 200 PA he had last year at this level, and he's under-performing his (decent, not great) results from last year...including striking out more and massively struggling in the SLG area. It would be great to get a report on his defense, because that would have a material impact on how we view his overall progress. But, offensively, he does not appear to be anywhere near ready for a promotion.
  14. jkcarew
    Gordon hurt again? And is it time to update Javier from “early May return”?
  15. jkcarew
    Don't love him there...but given alternatives, I'm good with it. When looking at it, we'd probably be better off considering Kepler's numbers against righties only. He's not batting lead-off against lefties. And his OBP against righties...while not outstanding...is decent, and better than Buxton's. Against lefties, I'm good with Garver leading off at this time. My feeling is that lead-off batters have more pressure and see different pitching approaches (certainly relative to no. 9 hitters). Even if Buxton continues to make progress, I want him with a solid season behind him before we ask him to take that on...as long as the alternatives are 'decent'...which I feel the Kepler/Garver platoon is (so far).
  16. jkcarew
    But we just lost by a run. My thing is...why does having the ability to pull and launch and hit home runs have to preclude the ability to move a runner when the scenario calls for that? You'd like to see that type of versatility...at least among guys that aren't going to be anywhere near league-leaders in power numbers. (by the way...not necessarily a Kepler thing, really. Kepler was trying to move the runner...he's always trying to pull the ball which was the play there. Just got beat by the pitch.)
  17. jkcarew
    It would make sense to me that we will see shifts beaten more often going forward as the shift pendulum swings too far. Where the 'marginal' power guys become willing to look to beat the shift. Just eyeball/gut, I thought it was absurd that the Tigers were shifting Polanco. And, sure enough, he burned them multiple times. Maybe I'm just hoping. The pull/launch thing is great, but I like the idea of diverse styles and approaches surviving the data-driven evolution.
  18. jkcarew
    Good for him! Don't know that he will hit as he advances...but it's nice to see for a kid who...up to this point...has done pretty much everything that could be asked of a high-school catcher drafted in round 2 (at least in terms of overall numbers).
  19. jkcarew
    Yep. And also agree with the "encouraging" comment. What we are seeing is exciting, and it's not unrealistic to think that Polanco is in the process of taking his offensive game to a new level. Not Trout-like or even Carew-like, but still something that could be very, very good. Carew himself took a significant step at his age 27 season.
  20. jkcarew
    Heading into his age 25 season, Polanco has a career best 110 OPS+. Heading into his age 25 season, Carew had a 134 and a (injury shortened) 152 under his belt. And Carew posted the 157 at age 29. But, it’s worth pointing out that Carew and all of the others on your honorable mention list were second basemen. Short is more demanding...and playing at his current standard defensively, Polanco would not need to OPS as high as these others to be more valuable. So, for now, maybe we ponder whether 2019 Polanco can have the best year ever for a Twins shortstop? Seems like that could be realistic, as long as he remains healthy throughout the year.
  21. jkcarew
    And THAT is why traditionally you don’t have the best pitcher in the back of the bullpen enter games when trailing. It’s a gamble, and Rocco lost the bet. Berrios has struggled controlling the curve many of his starts so far...his mediocre FIP and K/9 heading into today’s start reflected that, despite the favorable results. It was bound to bite him eventually.
  22. jkcarew
    Oh, well. Detroit’s results since we saw them early had indicated that they might not be terrible. And seeing them up close now, I’d say that’s true. Or at least not as bad as I thought they’d be. The health of Perez and Cruz is more important than the outcome of one game. So, I hope they’re healthy and available very soon.
  23. jkcarew
    But would you want to go by that? I'd go by Maxi35milian.
  24. jkcarew
    Kepler's wRC+ right now is 106 and ranks 20th among right fielders. Eight Twins have a higher wRC+. His OPS+ is 109 compared to his career 97. Meanwhile, his splits vs lefties so far this year (SSS) are once again flirting with platoon territory...hence the recent trend for Baldelli dropping him to the bottom of the order vs lefty starters. Kepler's 2019 improvement can be attributed totally and completely to an increase in HR rate. His BABiP is an abysmal 236 which is exactly where he sat at the end of last year. And his determination to try to pull everything isn't going to improve that materially. On the other hand, there's no reason to think that the improved HR rate isn't sustainable and can't continue to grow a bit more, even. But, it will have to for Kepler to be a "star". It should also be pointed out that Kepler's extension also makes him considerably more valuable in trade scenarios.
  25. jkcarew
    Rosario did look broke tonight...and has for many games over the last couple of weeks. The good news...last year that would have almost automatically meant games lost.
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