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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Next time the Twins see Cleveland will be a long time from now and Cleveland will no longer be playing their B lineup. Still, encouraged that Buxton and Pineda can move the needle some this year...two guys that didn’t help the club at all last year (obviously).
  2. jkcarew
    Well, yes. It does. Pitch number 4 had about a 50% chance of being called ball four in that game...and it was, for all practical purposes, unhittable. At the time, it was hugely lucky that Rosario didn’t get a piece of it and roll into a double-play. Again, with a 3-0 count, runners on first and second, nobody out in a 1-1 game in the bottom of the seventh...it was a horrible decision to swing at that pitch.
  3. jkcarew
    Early indications (to nobody's surprise) are that Rocco isn't exactly one for small-ball...or even "playing the percentages". Let Rosario swing away in the 7th inning of a 1-1 game with a 3-0 count and runners on first and second, and nobody out. Let Kepler swing away in 9th, facing a lefty, with Buxton on second, no outs...down by one. (Go for the tie at home?) Both moves back-fired. To be fair, this lineup probably doesn't have the skill/flexibility to play the small game even in the scenarios where it is justified. Just need to wait for the weather to warm up, so fly balls start landing on the other side of the fence, I guess.
  4. jkcarew
    In terms of avoiding long streaks of outs...if Sano had been in the Twins lineup yesterday, his career OBP would have been the 2nd-highest in the order, barely behind Cruz. So, this lineup definitely figures to be challenged...even in the context of today's game...at finding ways to get on base...and needs to hit the ball over the fence. Of course, they have a few key guys that should still be on the upside of their development...that's where the hope is. I agree that they were being deliberately super-aggressive against Kluber.
  5. jkcarew
    No Lindor for them was helpful...but don't know that it would have mattered given the way Berrios (and Rogers) looked. Buxton's at-bats continued to look encouraging. On the flip-side, you can see how this offense is going to be either on..or OFF. The new power guys are not known for working counts...and it showed. If the ball isn't going over the fence, this lineup has the potential to makes lots of outs...fast. Kepler and Rosario are going to have to look a lot better against good RH pitching, but were bailed out by Berrios yesterday. It was packed...l know it was the opener, but was still surprised a bit by the size of the March 28 crowd, how early everyone showed, etc. Entire down-town area was packed by 1:00. Nice to see.
  6. jkcarew
    Theoretically three of these position players are gone in May. Two pitchers are added and Sano returns. Of course that assumes no injuries in the interim, which seems seldom happens.
  7. jkcarew
    I hope so. A year ago the consensus here seemed to be upper end of rotation guy. Seems kind of sudden that I find myself questioning when he’ll be ready for a relief role...any relief role. He’s 24 and counting.
  8. jkcarew
    There are a lot of living expenses that are covered by the team/organization (and hosts). It's not as bad as the salary number, in itself, would suggest. Having said that, the salaries are too low...lower than the value they drive for the organization...lower than what is fair/sustainable for players that are making personal sacrifices into their mid, even upper 20's. It's all a result of gross under-representation in the collective bargaining process.
  9. jkcarew
    Pérez being brought in meant valuable youngsters expecting their shot in the rotation were made to wait a bit longer. I’m talking about Adalberto Mejía and Fernando Romero... Really? This kind of mushes cause with effect. First, Romero was already headed to the pen with his challenges with secondary pitches and endurance. And, Perez wasn't signed because he's good or projects value to speak of. (See one year contract, team option). Perez was brought in because the young arms...especially the left-handed arms, either aren't ready (Gonsalves) or aren't trusted (Mejia)...and because the rotation is basically completely right-handed without Mejia (or someone). Perez is someone. Sometimes, an emergency stop-gap/place-holder proves to be more than that. So, we've got that going for us...
  10. jkcarew
    Generally, I don't want balls/strikes called by a machine. But, then I'll read an article on pitch-framing. If not for instant replay, I'd guess we'd have data and articles on tag-framing (2B/SS) and ball-in-glove-framing (1B) by now.
  11. jkcarew
    I agree these rules should at least slow the extinction of the "bench bat" player. But at the cost of the LOOGY. I would have added the roster spot, capped pitchers at 13 (some challenges...consideration for two-way players, etc....but there would be ways to do it that would be fair). I didn't mind the managers having the option to deploy a LOOGY strategy...but the 3-batter requirement will impact that in a major way. I get that the idea is to reduce mid-inning pitching changes, but not sure it will reduce that many in practice. We'll see. Overall, the changes are fine, not great, IMO...but, better than no changes and letting current trends continue unabated.
  12. jkcarew
    Tyler Austin kind of having an interesting spring so far. Even before the HR yesterday...and SSS disclaimers aside...seems more balls have been put in play, (although still not getting BB's). See or hear anything indicating a demonstratively different approach? Or just showing some general signs of improvement?
  13. jkcarew
    I think of the offensive floor for a CF with elite defensive value as being Gary Pettis. (Sadly, only useful for those that remember Pettis. I'm old.) In his prime, Pettis was OPS+'ing 90-ish...or, if you prefer, was wRC+'ing mid 80's to low 90's. That's basically what Buxton was in 2016 and 2017 (Pettis more OBP/stolen bases, Buxton more SLG). Of course Pettis played 150 games/year in his prime, but a theoretical healthy Buxton doesn't have to be much better than that to add value to a contending team. I'm still reasonably confident he can be that good or better. The disappointing part of that is...if he doesn't develop offense significantly better than that, his career won't be very long. As soon as one loses the elite speed/range in CF, that level of offense is relatively easy to replace in CF, and it doesn't play in the corners.
  14. jkcarew
    Yeah...there's a very good chance the weather will be such that we'd rather not have Berrios (or anyone that figures prominently...or anyone, period) pitching. After the opening series, the Twins don't come back until the 12th. It's hard to figure how sneaking those 3 games in front of that in March benefits anyone.
  15. jkcarew
    Three pages on Zack Granite? Looks like the TD community is rounding into shape and should be ready for the opener later this month.
  16. jkcarew
    There's a school of thought that would say this is 'good' for Gordon...potentially. In a scenario where Adrianza is now NOT part of a 3-man bench...you may lose him. And the long-term (injury) replacement at shortstop in 2019 becomes Gordon.
  17. jkcarew
    Rest? Match-ups? Coming off 3 consecutive years with more than 500 PA for the Astros. Their starters were decent.
  18. jkcarew
    Gonzales is a huge upgrade as a player available on a daily basis as a bench/swing player who might play one game a week at shortstop. An Adrinanza type (or Gordon) is what you'll use if a long-term injury occurs at shortstop.
  19. jkcarew
    Me likey. And no, I don't see it as an 'insurance policy' regarding any one player. It's an insurance policy against several players' performance or injury issues. And if you don't need the insurance (we can always hope)...he's a guy that's good enough offensively to give 400+ PA just based on rest and match-ups.
  20. jkcarew
    But my point is not that the opener can't be 'effective' or that maxing the number of pitchers you can carry isn't 'smart'. My point is, I'm not super excited about innovations that will lead to making it harder to string hits and score runs. And that's what is going on with openers and using more and more pitchers in smarter ways. When the rubber was placed at 60-6 in the late 1800's and then set at the current height in 1968, I don't think anyone had in mind 5, 6, 7 pitchers per game throwing alternately from the right and left, and max-efforting every single pitch. Should the opener concept be somehow illegal? I wouldn't even try to go there. But where it gets scary to me is with roster expansion. When 13 pitchers is good, 14 is better. Roster expansion has already come up as a likely topic for the next CBA. (And what about the pace-of-play challenges?). Where does it end? I'm looking for changes that limits/disincents the use of large numbers of pitchers and promotes people getting on base with contact.
  21. jkcarew
    Only if you think the opener movement isn't at least a contributing factor to the growing momentum for carrying more pitchers on the active roster...and, in fact, the growing momentum to expand active rosters. The theory aside, manager's are going to manage (or at least want to) the back end of games the same way they always have. When a manager is sitting in the sixth inning tied or down by one in a low scoring game, he's not going to care that the 'follower' should have no problem getting through the sixth. At the very least, it's another reason pushing organizations to agree to roster expansion in the next CBA. And once that extra roster spot comes along, what do you think teams that have managed to acquire defensively-flexible players will do with it? So, am I afraid of it? No...just some of the potential long-term consequences.
  22. jkcarew
    In the 3-man bench scenario...I don't want Astudillo over Cave as an outfield option. I don't want him to be playing the middle infield. Ever. (Can Rosario?) That leaves backup catcher. I'm not sure Astudillo is a better hitter than Garver (yes, despite the magical 97 PA last year, the amazing bat flip, and the two batting practice home runs). But if not Garver, Astudillo's in Rochester waiting for injuries or under-performance. One or the other will happen soon enough...it always does.
  23. jkcarew
    Here's who gets "robbed" in wOBA: guys that take the same swing at every pitch no matter the pitcher, no matter the location of the pitch, no matter the count, no matter the game situation, no matter the defensive alignment. And dead pull hitters, although that's a bit redundant as most dead pull hitters fit the first description. If everyone knows exactly where the ball is going to go every time you make solid contact...that your fault, not bad luck.
  24. jkcarew
    The Twins Will Commit To Competency Yay!
  25. jkcarew
    Sano is who he is. Meanwhile, Buxton is going to revert to the two hottest months of his career? Buxton's K-rate was 32%, with 3 HR over 109 PA in sept/oct of 2017....what had been found in August was already becoming lost again by the time that season ended. Do I think Buxton can make substantial and sustainable adjustments? Yes. Do I think he has a track record of being able to do that so far. No. I don't see Buxton as being any different than Sano in that regard. I'm cautiously optimistic that they both start breaking through in 2019.
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