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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Took the time to look at this. Compiled manually from Baseball Reference.com...so I may have a mistake in here somewhere, but the theme was real for Berrios in 2018... Berrios against better-than-500 teams (finished better than 500) in 2018... 16 starts; 88.1 IP; team record 5-11; Berrios record 2-8 ERA: 5.71; WIP: 1.49 He's 24 years old. Definitely showing signs of having a better upside than this. But, the Twins need to be thinking about improving the staff...including improving it at the top end...if they want to contend in 2019.
  2. jkcarew
    Gibson had a better year than Berrios. He just did. Doesn't mean he's a better pitcher than Berrios...doesn't mean that all of the underlying numbers will lead to the same type of results over time...just means he had a better year than Berrios in 2018. Also, as a reminder...in 2018 all Twins pitchers benefited from nearly 60 starts...more than a third of the schedule...against White Sox, KC, and Detroit. Truly awful teams/lineups. And those lineups can only be getting better over the next few years. For those that think Berrios's numbers stand up as 'no. 1' numbers...look at his splits for results against under/over 500 teams this year. Downright ugly numbers against the top half of the league.
  3. jkcarew
    Usually. But this year would have been the exception to even that axiom. The Twins last 9 series included 20 games against the likes of Texas, KC, Detroit, and the White Sox. Don't think it would have mattered much if those teams had 'been trying' or 'playing it straight'....which they clearly were not. If ever there was a year when September records and statistics can be ignored completely...this would be it regarding the Twins. The Twins need to overhaul in a fairly major way. The manager should be just the first step.
  4. jkcarew
    I don't think you need to be termed a "homer" to appreciate Paul Molitor for his accomplishments, or even for his demeanor through the years as a primary face of the franchise. I both admire Molly....and feel that, at this time, there should be better manager options available for this team.
  5. jkcarew
    Please go outside the organization. Having said that, watching LA, Colorado, Cubs and Milwaukee play yesterday....it drove home how really far away the Twins roster is from looking like that of a true contender. Lots and lots of work to be done beyond getting a new/better manager.
  6. jkcarew
    In 2018, the pitchers have benefited from having three historically awful teams in the division. Nearly 60 starts against lineups that were barely better than AAA. Those lineups will be getting better. The staff lacks a true #1. While Berrios may take that step in 2019, he didn’t in 2018...and I wouldn’t mind at all the FO going aggressively for whatever #1 types (or #1-ish) might be available in the off-season.
  7. jkcarew
    His career OPS is 672...and that represents a very clear boundary on his greatness. If we attribute the difference of 22 DRS to Buxton alone...that amounts to 2 wins. If Buxton is going to be OPS+'ing 80 (or less), it won't take much for an average defensive player to make up the 2 wins in the batters box. The defensive stats are cool...they just don't have the value that is often insinuated as part of Buxton conversations. Even center fielders have to hit some to have value. Having said that, if Buxton could OPS+ a consistent 90, he'd have a lot of value. Think somewhere between Gary Pettis and Paul Blair. And I still think it's realistic that he can do that.
  8. jkcarew
    Probably yes...in almost every league I can think of, with the obvious exception of the American and National...and the possible exceptions of the International and Pacific Coast.
  9. jkcarew
    Looking at the BB's it might seem like Stewart and Gonsalves have the same issues. But I'm not sure they do. When I look at Steward, I see a guy who has stuff, but can't get it over the plate despite trying (and doesn't get totally annihilated when he does throw it over the plate) When I watch Gonsalves, I see a guy without much stuff, who tries hard not to throw it over the plate. Maybe, it's just me, but I remain more optimistic on Stewart. (Which probably means Gonsalves has a long and successful major-league career ahead of him.)
  10. jkcarew
    I like many/most of the trades so far. But overall, the new FO seems to be learning on the job. And learning slowly. They certainly don't seem to have accomplished anything yet. Like some others that have posted, I could not care less about the new 'processes' they have put in place...the processes will constantly evolve, what's brilliant today is obsolete tomorrow. Win baseball games at the major league level. And they've gone gone backwards in that regard. It will be an interesting off-season. I guess they have to wait another year on Buxton and Sano. But if Buxton/Sano turn out to be closer to what we've seen in 2018 than what we've seen in brief periods of success...then, we'll end up wishing the FO had pulled the plug and went full re-build mode. This team is frighteningly close to looking at 2020 and still having zero established players that you would build around. On truly good teams, guys like Rosario and Berrios are just nice pieces.
  11. jkcarew
    Last night's lineup would probably finish top-half of the International League. Maybe. You just look for interesting players with a chance of being pieces in the future. The other day, we had Stewart...this game?...I don't think Astudillo DH'ing is in the Twins plans...but, Garver continues to look like a major-league hitter and wasn't terrible behind the plate. Twins fandom!
  12. jkcarew
    Kirilloff in an extra-base drought. Hope he can snap out of it.
  13. jkcarew
    Not arguing that it shouldn't be tried. Not even arguing that it won't be effective. What I am arguing is that the theory is to 'win'/improve on the 3rd pass through the lineup...and that there MAY be a price to pay in the theory regarding the first inning. If the opener was one of the best pitchers on the staff, he'd be a 1-3 (or 4) starter, or one of the very back-end relievers. The very fact nobody is suggesting that you're going to use an opener for 'good' starters acknowledges this. I suspect that the effectiveness of the strategy will be related to the delta in ability between the opener and the 'primary'. If the delta is too big, you'll give up more in the first inning than you'll save in the 5th/6th.
  14. jkcarew
    The theory still has holes. The "best era for one inning" pool of pitchers (non-starters) only really consists of your closer...and maybe the 8th-inning guy. Taylor Rogers (as an example) one-inning ERA is irrelevant, because the batters he faces to arrive at that ERA are cherry-picked by the manager. In the opener role it will be the opposite...instead of the manager choosing which batters that pitcher faces, the other team will get to choose who that pitcher faces. Huge difference...I don't think there is much of a question that the opener role will not materially help (and might hurt) 1st-inning ERA's...the 'theory' is that it will help 5th and 6th-inning ERA (3rd-time through lineup) more than it will hurt in the 1st.
  15. jkcarew
    Stewart's stuff looks major-league quality. Or maybe, it's just me. There will be some pretty decent data by the end of the year, when looking at opener results across the league. I think it's still a fact that the best pitchers are your starters....at least 1-3 in the rotation are better pitchers than all but maybe your 8th and 9th inning guys who posses maybe one ++ pitch. So, more often than not, you're opener is going to be your 6th, 7th, 8th best pitcher pitching against the top of the other teams order. To make it worse, the other team knows who the opener is going to be. Meanwhile, it does no good to reduce the number of runs surrendered in the second and third innings (or sixth), if you give up even more in the first. Admittedly, I'm hoping it fails. Only because it will be another reason to carry additional pitchers on the 25-man. No mater how you figure it, it's one additional pitcher burned before the game gets into the middle stages. Managers will still want the protection on the back-side for specific match-ups and extra-innings. Guaranteed.
  16. jkcarew
    For the record, I wanted Buxton up and playing in September. To me, if that had moved the needle on his 2019 even a little...I would have valued that more than 2023.
  17. jkcarew
    Tongue-in-cheek jab at those that are obsessing on how Buxton will react to this down the road. He won't. (If he becomes the player we all hope he becomes)...he'll end up going to a team that offers the best package of $ and winning. Period.
  18. jkcarew
    I heard a rumor that Carlos Correa is going to walk when he hits free agency in 2022 because the Astros took the immoral/disrespectful/unnecessary/deplorable/legal-but-still-really-icky action of exercising their leverage by only offering a $4.2M bonus to sign Correa out of Puerto Rico as the top pick. He's ticked that the guy picked AFTER him got $6M to sign with the Twins.
  19. jkcarew
    Is it just my imagination, or did an inordinate amount of our top hitting prospects fade in the second half? Some longer/worse than others...but still. Lewis faded pretty dramatically in August...Rooker faded...even Baddoo some. Don't know if I'd call what Gordon and Wade did at Rochester a 'fade'...more like they were overwhelmed by the level...Gordon more so that Wade, but Wade struggled pretty dramatically as well, slugging .336 It will be nice to see Lewis get a chance in the playoffs to end the season with an exclamation point.
  20. jkcarew
    I disagree with this decision...but can’t quite muster the sky-is-falling angst that seems to be the theme taking over the thread. If Buxton gets “pissed” and turns into a player that can hit major league pitching and stay on the field...and we control him for an extra year...that’s the downside? He’s currently a 79 OPS+ guy with 1000 PA. If he turns into a good major league hitter, the Twins were probably not going to be able to keep him anyway. If he continues as the hitter he’s been (overall) he’s not valuable enough to obsess about losing. And the ‘nobody will ever sign with us after this’ hysteria, I don’t buy into. It doesn’t work that way.
  21. jkcarew
    I said I wanted Buxton up. And durability is a real and valuable quality...independent of effort. There are a ton of players that hustle for my entertainment and play 140-150 games a year.
  22. jkcarew
    No. No he hasn’t. You can’t lose something you never had and that was never guaranteed to you. This year of service was never guaranteed. And Buxton is at least partly responsible for being in the position he is to lose it...both in terms of lack of durability and performance. Does Cave deserve losing at-bats to Buxton this fall? Would we be even noticing this if Buxton was the scrappy journeyman 6th-rounder and Cave were the 2nd overall pick whose greatness had been proclaimed since 2014? And yet, I want Buxton up. Life isn’t fair.
  23. jkcarew
    And if Buxton had gotten the service year, and decided to sign elsewhere when he hit free agency...despite the Twins having made a ‘fair’ offer and having ‘stuck with him’ during his months/seasons of struggling.... would that then be poor form on the part of Buxton? Or would that be Buxton exercising his rights under the terms of the CBA? It’s a business, has been forever.
  24. jkcarew
    I simultaneously want Buxton up, getting as many MLB at-bats as possible....AND at the same time, don’t have a problem with a FO making a decision in a scenario similar to this based on service time. I just wouldn’t have gone this way with Buxton.
  25. jkcarew
    The career OPS+ sits at 79. That speaks for itself...and he was looking worse than ever.
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