Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jkcarew

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,087

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Nice to see the Gordon injury must not be serious.
  2. jkcarew
    Putzing in the yard with the radio on, when the Twins made a mini-threat in the 9th, Provus made the comment “and a lot of fans are still here!”...as if the idea of fans sticking around for the 9th inning of a tie game was extraordinary...an afternoon game at that. But, he’s right in this case. The 3rd out of the 9th inning was recorded at 4:18 minutes. Even without the bench-clearing shenanigans, this was 9 innings in over 4 hours. Embarrassing for baseball.
  3. jkcarew
    Agreed with having a position player pitch in the 9th. (Assuming you have a plan for the arm or two you saved.) I could not care less about 14-6 vs 19-6. Having said that, why should a game against an offensively challenged club like the Rays have to get to that spot in the first place? In-game bullpen moves and bullpen management have been poor during Molitor’s entire tenure. Not a strength at all. And the FO has to take at least some of the blame for the bullpen roster management (and Belisle).
  4. jkcarew
    See above. Thrylos gives a great summary of the youngest Twins starters.
  5. jkcarew
    Pitching about 5 innings every 7 days. You would think they would want to change this very soon if they think he’ll be that accelerated. It’s exciting to think that the Twins could have a 20 year old starter. Can’t remember the last time that happened.
  6. jkcarew
    I think it's extremely unlikely...but for the sake of argument... If they have plans to do that, they need to trade Gordon while they can get a return, right? To me, signing both would be a statement on what the organization thinks of Gordon. (Unless you're signing them for one, maybe two years...which I guess is always possible, but again unlikely.)
  7. jkcarew
    Really aggressive on Graterol, but I don't think there's much arguing the upside. His video does look nice...looks strong and athletic, and obviously the velocity. The risk and distance to the major leagues has him lower, IMO. I'm high on him, but not quite that excited yet. One thing that would help (in terms of how I look at him at this point in time) is if we were seeing him handle a realistic workload. And two years removed from the surgery, we're not seeing that yet. I'm not suggesting this is, in and of itself, an indication of an issue...I'm saying it's tough to get a good sense of his trajectory when he's sitting at one season of 40 innings and another (this season) where he's sitting at 50 innings in the middle of July. I imagine by next year (hopefully) we'll start seeing him handling a regular workload and, at the same time, facing tougher competition.
  8. jkcarew
    Now Cody....you had all 5 on this list ranked below Lewin Diaz, right? I don’t think it’s too late to go with simple denial.
  9. jkcarew
    No. You are citing data that is real. Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario. So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion.
  10. jkcarew
    Let me try to elaborate. I looked at you link. You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year. I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite. "Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal. If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative. I very much doubt that is the case.
  11. jkcarew
    Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.
  12. jkcarew
    For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles. This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters. Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year. For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players). His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.
  13. jkcarew
    I love Dozier as a player, but even I don't want to watch him play for 2 more months just because his replacement will probably make the team weaker. When you pull the plug on a season, you pull the plug. So, if he's not going to be here in 2019, at the very least you can assess 'how far away' Gordon is, etc...or further assess whether you want Adrianza in 2019...or what Escobar looks like at 2nd...anything that has any relevance at all for 2019 plans. I think the return will be limited under current circumstances, but I see that as almost irrelevant. You're not going to give him a QO. Under these circumstances, I'm almost more interested in seeing where he goes, than what we get. The work and improvement he made to transform himself into what he's become warrants a real opportunity in the playoffs...and hopefully a decent payday in the off season.
  14. jkcarew
    Blankenhorn higher than I’d have him. “...keeps his strikeouts in check”. Actually, he’s creeping toward danger, at over 26% this year at the A+ level. That Doesn’t usually go down from here. He’s got to hit the ball over the fence with his profile. It’s hard to judge him too harshly playing in the offensive wasteland that is the FSL, and only 21...but, I’d be higher on him if he could project to an every-day second baseman defensively.
  15. jkcarew
    Tough decision, made tougher by the Buxton/Sano situations. Doubtful this team can challenge in the AL in the next couple of years, even with Realmuto, if Buxton and Sano aren't the good versions we've glimpsed. And, if they ARE the good versions, do you really need Realmuto? Probably not (although, you'd still need more than we're currently getting at the position). Aside from the strategic considerations, if I think Lewis is going to stick at SS and be average+ defensively...I don't know if this is the current read, or not...but if it is, I'm not trading Lewis for 2 years of anyone not named Mike Trout.
  16. jkcarew
    I concede. Two of his base runners scoring in his last inning with him in the clubhouse. It was a strong start.
  17. jkcarew
    Yes, it was decent for sure...strikeouts a bit pedestrian for a power arm...a few more pitches. But only his second game at this level...and I suppose a starter will never see the 7th inning by the time Graterol is in his prime.
  18. jkcarew
    With regard to Jeffers, I don’t know that I’d say the Twins are “believers” in him behind the plate. I’d say it’s more like the Twins felt that it would be “worth a shot” to see if he sticks...given availability at 59th pick...and that if he doesn’t, he still would have a decent chance at providing value at DH/1B. It seems that if the scouting consensus had him sticking as a probability, he would have been long gone by the 59th pick.
  19. jkcarew
    Struggling horrifically with A+ pitching in his age 21 year...almost never walks, power tool showing little sign of development, and zero defensive flexibility. Yeah, Diaz might be a little too high.
  20. jkcarew
    A day well lived. Thanks for sharing!
  21. jkcarew
    I read the title and expected to read about a strong start from Graterol. I guess everything’s relative. One one hand, a half season’s worth of starts like that might actually slow his ascent. On the other hand, it was way, way better than his first start at Fort Myers. But the numbers ‘19’ and ‘101’ trump anything that appears in the box score. Understandably so.
  22. jkcarew
    Nice analysis. A lot of interesting data. In this particular case, I think conclusions are not obvious. Dozier’s walk rate is also down...at the same time his pitches per at-bat are up, his chase rate is down and his contact is weaker. Much of that is counter-intuitive. I think the simplest conclusion may be the only one that holds water...he’s simply not getting the barrel to the ball as frequently as in the past. His age profiles to where this starts happening. I think it’s been slightly compounded by bad luck...as his extraordinarily low BABiP (even for him) can probably not be explained solely by the marginally weaker contact.
  23. jkcarew
    Unless the play on the field is against Baltimore Orioles have averaged fewer than 3 runs every 7 innings, which is what they got off Gibson today. Baltimore has now scored 50 fewer runs than the Twins...with two more games played. Close your eyes for a moment, envision the typical Twins lineup and performance this year...and then contemplate a team being WAY worse offensively than that. That’s the 2018 Baltimore Orioles.
  24. jkcarew
    But why would we expect Kepler to turn into a league average BABIP guy? For some profiles (e.g. Dozier) it never normalizes to average, and Kepler shows every sign of being one of those guys. Never been even in shouting distance of league average...an easy target for aggressive shifts, rarely hits a ball hard to the left of center, etc. I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch to think Cave couldn’t be in the same neighborhood OBP-wise as Kepler, with the difference being who consistently shows more SLG.
  25. jkcarew
    Not to mention OPS in the neighborhood of 700 for the other 3/4 of games. Now, if he could catch....never mind.
×
×
  • Create New...