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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I agree that the weight is a symptom, not the problem. The problem is he hasn't taken anything seriously so far. You can see that he usually is having a ton of fun out on the field. I love that. But he'll need to also start listening to others and developing dedication and discipline for his craft. If/when he does that, I'll be very much a buyer on Miguel.
  2. jkcarew
    Luis Severino ("short-ish", right-handed, power starter), pitched 44 innings as a 19 year-old, 113 as a 20 year-old, then 162, 151, 193, 191 through his age 24 year. His delivery is smoother than is Graterol's. But we can dream, can't we?
  3. jkcarew
    Seems too high for a guy who's 22 years old and really only has one season since he left high school that would distinguish him. How much are our perceptions influenced by the fact that that season was basically broadcast live by ESPN? Then again, I don't know who I'd have ahead of him. Maybe Javier. Javier represents an interesting contrast. Also has a shiny but thin (to date) resume...but is nearly a full two years younger, with presumably a higher ceiling as a shortstop, but presumably further from the show. Isn't it our turn to have a college bat-first guy arrive and rake inside of two years? Seems it happens all the time for other teams (even though I know it doesn't).
  4. jkcarew
    And until Duda, it was four RIGHT-HANDED power bats with little or no defensive flexibility. They knew they would lose Mauer's left-handed OBP...they chose to part with Grossman's left-handed OBP...so they picked up more right-handed power bats (Cruz and Cron) with mediocre OBP to go with the questionable OBP right-handed power bats they already had (Austin and Rooker). Cruz was a no-brainer. But Cron and Austin are totally redundant, and potential blockers of Rooker depending upon how the season goes. Then you add Duda in what seems a complete after-thought even though it doesn't immediately cost a roster spot..."Wait...all our marginal and inflexible first-basemen are right-handed. We have to find a margin and inflexible left-handed first baseman." Weird to say the least.
  5. jkcarew
    13 pitchers makes for a 3-man bench. Once the schedule picks up and the 13th pitcher becomes a fixture, a platoon of a Cron and Duda...two guys that can’t play any position other than first base becomes...next to impossible. A much more likely platoon at first would be Duda (if he were to win the job) and Sano...with Adrianza (sigh) playing third against lefties.
  6. jkcarew
    On the one hand, kinda odd that a player would go up in the rankings despite missing the year. But then again, Romero graduated and Gordon and Gonsalves were ahead of him, right? Meanwhile, he drops behind two or three guys...Graterol and Larnach among them. So, it is in fact, kinda easy to argue that Javier should be higher.
  7. jkcarew
    ...Romero could be a force in the bullpen. And that’s something that Falvey acknowledged as well. “Fernando is someone who you watch THE FIRST FEW INNINGS and you think, ‘that could be pretty special out of the bullpen.'’ Doesn't this make it sound that there are questions about his stamina...how long he can maintain his velocity/stuff on any given outing? That no matter the development of pitches, he may simply be significantly more effective as a reliever than a starter? That's what it sounds like they're saying to me. But it seems early in his development to be making that conclusion...at least definitively. And I don't know how you answer that question without keeping him in a starting role to see if the added year, and further distance from the TJ, moves that needle.
  8. jkcarew
    It's not the BA or even the OBP that's disturbing about those last months. It's the grand total of 2 home runs in his last 32 games. While the K% was bottoming out, the game power all but disappeared. Could be a case of one step backwards to go two steps forward. But, the forward steps will need to happen fast now, IMO.
  9. jkcarew
    Tom and I went back and forth a bit on the phrase 'make-or-break year' in regards to another prospect. IMO, if there's such a thing...Rooker in 2019 would be it. He's a bad corner outfielder or (maybe) an average first-baseman. He's 24. The bat needs to go from good/promising to leaderboard quality...fast.
  10. jkcarew
    Fair enough. Still, age and pedigree has to matter some, right? When Torii Hunter OPS'd 678 in Ft Myers after having gone around 800 in low A...it would have been silly for his prospect status to take much of a hit at all. He was a no. 20 overall pick, offered value beyond the hit tool, and was only 19 years old. Baddoo is not analogous to Hunter, but still...pretty glossy tools and will only be 20. Admitted, (and ironically) his youth kinda works against him in a way, as well...at least in terms of a future with our favorite club. His rule-5 clock started ticking when he was barely 17. He's going to be rule-5 eligible at a relatively early stage of his overall development (almost Dominican-like), which could be problematic for the Twins if he stalls at all in the lower levels.
  11. jkcarew
    Don’t know that I’d have a guy with Duran’s track record...and this far from the show, ranked ahead of Thorpe (and maybe one or two others). But I’ll say this...the kid looks the part physically. Was never anywhere near 9k/9 his first 3 years of pro ball. But then all of a sudden last year happened. Maybe a bit of a late bloomer as the strength finally catches up with the length? I hope so.
  12. jkcarew
    That’s true of every single highly-regarded prospect that has ever made that jump or ever will make that jump. I’m confuses as to why Baddoo’s situation is uniquely “make-or-break”. At this point you’re kind of obliged to feel that this year will also be a make-or-break for Miranda and will REALLY be make-or-break for Jeffers...two other highly-ranked position players headed for Ft Myers...both older than Baddoo.
  13. jkcarew
    Three batter minimum seems ridiculous. But if rosters go to 26, you'll have to do something drastic like that. Don't think for one second that that spot wont go...eventually...to yet another pitcher. That's what the data will tell you to do with it...use as many pitchers per game as the rules will allow, given the roster constraints. Ease the roster constraints...use more pitchers. Ugh! Please no!
  14. jkcarew
    Astudillo is in Rochester. Unless one of Garver or Castro (or possibly Adrianza), is injured. Garver is a better hitter than Astudillo (despite those amazing 97 plate appearances last year)...and Adrianza is a better fielder at every position except one. I'd be great if we could go with 12 pitchers and a 4-man bench, because Astudillo would provide much better offensive flexibility late in games...but we won't...at least not once the schedule picks up.
  15. jkcarew
    By the time Enlow makes it to the big leagues, starting pitchers might only be asked to make it through the line-up a couple of times. Well, yeah...for the ones that aren't actually good. If the projection for Enlow (or any 'starter') is that he can be a good 4-5 inning 'follower'...then he shouldn't be ranked this high. The bar will continue to be...and needs to be...set higher for arms that are drafted as high as Enlow was. So far, IMO, he's not done anything to discourage the higher ceiling. Maybe the mediocre K/9 numbers (so far) and distance from the show have me ranking him a little lower.
  16. jkcarew
    When you think of the pressure on these prospects to perform, I can't even imagine how nearly two years out of my control (largely) would affect my psyche. The 5 months 'wasted' attempting rehab before taking the surgery path must be particularly tough to take. Here's hoping Andro catches the breaks from here on out.
  17. jkcarew
    Can't imagine Granite is seriously in play whatsoever. Lifetime minor league OPS of 708...that lowest (by a good margin) among Reed, Cave, Wade. Oh...and Granite is also the same age...actually months older...than Reed and Cave. Cave has the insider track, Wade's the dark horse. Reed needs to catch fire immediately in spring training to have a chance. Granite has no chance. Austin nor Cron are going to play in the outfield.
  18. jkcarew
    Ugh. A Diaz analogy for Baddoo. The reason Diaz has 'disappeared' from the top prospect conversation, is that he shouldn't have been in that conversation in the first place (heading into 2018). If Baddoo OPS's 598 at Fort Myers this season (as Diaz did last year), he will have done it as a player with significant defensive value and flexibility, value on the bases, and at the age of 20...as apposed to Diaz who did so as a player with zero defensive flexibility and next-to-zero defensive value, zero value on the bases...and at the age of 21. (Also, Blankenhorn never saw Fort Myers until his age 21 season...spending his age 20 season in Cedar Rapids being about as good offensively as Baddoo was last year at 19) I won't try to predict the future for any of these guys, but I'm guessing most prospect rankers are going to give Baddoo more rope than Blankenhorn and a lot more rope than Diaz.
  19. jkcarew
    Interesting to see the discrepancy of how Rortvedt is viewed...both among the staff and the posters. Probably has to do with how his big offensive improvement from 2018 is interpreted. Can he build on it? How much?. He was drafted young, small and athletic (by catcher standards), and very raw out of a northern climate. Taken 56 overall in the 2nd round. Given his background, I'd say his bat is right about where we could reasonably expect it to be (he's actually 'still' a couple months younger than Jeffers)...right on track to being 'decent'. That would go a long way to usefulness at the major-league level, given he swings it left-handed and given his defensive prowess. I remain a believer.
  20. jkcarew
    Cody leaving the door open for a top-15 Lewin Diaz ranking. Again.
  21. jkcarew
    If there was even one more year on Realmuto's contract, offering Kirilloff would be easily justifiable, IMO. Some of the arguments here to devalue Realmuto...catchers don't play enough game, get hurt too often, decline early, etc....those are arguments that make a guy like Realmuto...healthy and just entering his prime...look even more valuable, not less. As it is, with just the two years...I would expect the Twins to move the line somewhere below their number 2 prospect. But I do hope they are considering all the possibilities.
  22. jkcarew
    Polanco is extremely useful. Switch-hitter than makes contact and can put a little pressure on defenses on the bases. Depending upon how/when/if Lewis/Javier/Gordon arrive (and Schoop departs), Polanco can be a SS, 2B, or super-utility...but he can definitely be an every-day type on a very good team, IMO. Also worth noting that Polanco, given a decent contract scenario (FA in 2023), represents an asset that might return tangible value in a trade.
  23. jkcarew
    There's always a mystery team. The mystery team always has 'great payroll flexibility'. Weird, right? Has the mystery team ever signed a player? I guess there's a first time for everything.
  24. jkcarew
    Well written article. I agree it's the players own fault that things have started to trend against them in recent years. But it should also be noted, the unfavorable trends started from a point at which the MLB Players union had the best deal...and was arguable the most powerful union, not only in professional sports, but that ever existed in any business. Unfortunately for the 'top' major-league players, things won't get materially better any time soon. The only solution for the rank and file is a floor on salaries. That will never happen without a firmer ceiling. Add to that the minor league dilemma. Revenues are very unlikely to grow sufficiently to provide BOTH a materially bigger chunk for the Major leaguers AND a bigger chunk for the minor leaguers. And the major leaguers are going to lose that PR battle all day long. Also, any negotiating approach leveraging arguments that players deploy tools for "maximizing health and performance, maintaining/improving tools and athleticism, and mitigating age- and usage-related decline"....this is a losing strategy from the start. Such tactics will only rationalize shorter seasons and/or more players on a roster. In either case, it will result in LESS money in the individual player's pocket, not more.
  25. jkcarew
    This is pretty much how this organization has always been run, right? You do the best you can with talent evaluation/acquisition (given significant payroll constraints)...but mostly, you just sit back and wait for stars to appear. If some Pucketts, Hrbeks, Gaettis, Mauers, Morneaus, Radkes, Santanas, etc. come along, you have a shot. If they don't come along, you patch stuff together so that it looks like you care, and fans can look forward to the random (and unsustainable) 85-win season when everything falls into place. That's what's happening here. Buying (at a very low cost) another year to see if stars appear. I don't defend it, but I don't look for the Twins under this ownership to become something they've never been. In the meantime, I my only hope is that Falvey and Levine have what it takes to make the stars appear more frequently, more consistently...and soon.
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