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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I think of the offensive floor for a CF with elite defensive value as being Gary Pettis. (Sadly, only useful for those that remember Pettis. I'm old.) In his prime, Pettis was OPS+'ing 90-ish...or, if you prefer, was wRC+'ing mid 80's to low 90's. That's basically what Buxton was in 2016 and 2017 (Pettis more OBP/stolen bases, Buxton more SLG). Of course Pettis played 150 games/year in his prime, but a theoretical healthy Buxton doesn't have to be much better than that to add value to a contending team. I'm still reasonably confident he can be that good or better. The disappointing part of that is...if he doesn't develop offense significantly better than that, his career won't be very long. As soon as one loses the elite speed/range in CF, that level of offense is relatively easy to replace in CF, and it doesn't play in the corners.
  2. jkcarew
    Yeah...there's a very good chance the weather will be such that we'd rather not have Berrios (or anyone that figures prominently...or anyone, period) pitching. After the opening series, the Twins don't come back until the 12th. It's hard to figure how sneaking those 3 games in front of that in March benefits anyone.
  3. jkcarew
    Three pages on Zack Granite? Looks like the TD community is rounding into shape and should be ready for the opener later this month.
  4. jkcarew
    There's a school of thought that would say this is 'good' for Gordon...potentially. In a scenario where Adrianza is now NOT part of a 3-man bench...you may lose him. And the long-term (injury) replacement at shortstop in 2019 becomes Gordon.
  5. jkcarew
    Rest? Match-ups? Coming off 3 consecutive years with more than 500 PA for the Astros. Their starters were decent.
  6. jkcarew
    Gonzales is a huge upgrade as a player available on a daily basis as a bench/swing player who might play one game a week at shortstop. An Adrinanza type (or Gordon) is what you'll use if a long-term injury occurs at shortstop.
  7. jkcarew
    Me likey. And no, I don't see it as an 'insurance policy' regarding any one player. It's an insurance policy against several players' performance or injury issues. And if you don't need the insurance (we can always hope)...he's a guy that's good enough offensively to give 400+ PA just based on rest and match-ups.
  8. jkcarew
    But my point is not that the opener can't be 'effective' or that maxing the number of pitchers you can carry isn't 'smart'. My point is, I'm not super excited about innovations that will lead to making it harder to string hits and score runs. And that's what is going on with openers and using more and more pitchers in smarter ways. When the rubber was placed at 60-6 in the late 1800's and then set at the current height in 1968, I don't think anyone had in mind 5, 6, 7 pitchers per game throwing alternately from the right and left, and max-efforting every single pitch. Should the opener concept be somehow illegal? I wouldn't even try to go there. But where it gets scary to me is with roster expansion. When 13 pitchers is good, 14 is better. Roster expansion has already come up as a likely topic for the next CBA. (And what about the pace-of-play challenges?). Where does it end? I'm looking for changes that limits/disincents the use of large numbers of pitchers and promotes people getting on base with contact.
  9. jkcarew
    Only if you think the opener movement isn't at least a contributing factor to the growing momentum for carrying more pitchers on the active roster...and, in fact, the growing momentum to expand active rosters. The theory aside, manager's are going to manage (or at least want to) the back end of games the same way they always have. When a manager is sitting in the sixth inning tied or down by one in a low scoring game, he's not going to care that the 'follower' should have no problem getting through the sixth. At the very least, it's another reason pushing organizations to agree to roster expansion in the next CBA. And once that extra roster spot comes along, what do you think teams that have managed to acquire defensively-flexible players will do with it? So, am I afraid of it? No...just some of the potential long-term consequences.
  10. jkcarew
    In the 3-man bench scenario...I don't want Astudillo over Cave as an outfield option. I don't want him to be playing the middle infield. Ever. (Can Rosario?) That leaves backup catcher. I'm not sure Astudillo is a better hitter than Garver (yes, despite the magical 97 PA last year, the amazing bat flip, and the two batting practice home runs). But if not Garver, Astudillo's in Rochester waiting for injuries or under-performance. One or the other will happen soon enough...it always does.
  11. jkcarew
    Here's who gets "robbed" in wOBA: guys that take the same swing at every pitch no matter the pitcher, no matter the location of the pitch, no matter the count, no matter the game situation, no matter the defensive alignment. And dead pull hitters, although that's a bit redundant as most dead pull hitters fit the first description. If everyone knows exactly where the ball is going to go every time you make solid contact...that your fault, not bad luck.
  12. jkcarew
    The Twins Will Commit To Competency Yay!
  13. jkcarew
    Sano is who he is. Meanwhile, Buxton is going to revert to the two hottest months of his career? Buxton's K-rate was 32%, with 3 HR over 109 PA in sept/oct of 2017....what had been found in August was already becoming lost again by the time that season ended. Do I think Buxton can make substantial and sustainable adjustments? Yes. Do I think he has a track record of being able to do that so far. No. I don't see Buxton as being any different than Sano in that regard. I'm cautiously optimistic that they both start breaking through in 2019.
  14. jkcarew
    Especially, when the deal won't be any kind of barrier for future trading. Toward the middle/end of the contract, Kepler will be, at a minimum, a solid strong-side platoon option at a corner or 1B. He would be dumpable in a heartbeat at a trade deadline with this contract....if it came to that. Smart deal by Twins...slightly surprised, but not shocked, that Kepler's camp pulled the trigger on this type of deal at this point in time.
  15. jkcarew
    Not sure Sano striking out 200 times would be a bad thing. It would mean he was healthy...and if it comes with a lot of walks and HR's...but, yeah it would be fantastic if all that came with fewer K's. fwiw, if Buxton has the fantastic year that many here predict (hope) will happen, he could be real close to 200 K's, as well. At his career rate, that would only take a little over 600 PA. At the 550 PA you cite for Sano, Buxton would get rung up 175 times...so he better be hitting the ball over the fence, as well.
  16. jkcarew
    Seems everything you hear about this kid is that he's got the entire package from the mental/emotional/maturity standpoint. The kind of player where if he's an average hitter, he's going to be very valuable, if he's a better than average hitter he's a perennial all-star, and if he's a top-end hitter...well, be still my heart.
  17. jkcarew
    Yeah, certainly going to be hard with that organization to crack into the everyday lineup in the outfield. But I'd think Austin would have been out there more than he was...there's always some opportunity. Gardner has been terrible against lefties for some time now. But he was continuing to get the play in left, before Stanton and during periods when Hicks was out, etc. Honestly, though...I have no idea how good or bad Austin would be in the OF...only suggesting that I think that ship has past. If it could work out, they should be looking at it, as it would be great to have a legitimate right-handed bat out there when needed. And so far, it's been just as difficult to discern whether Rooker will be considered a MLB outfielder.
  18. jkcarew
    Hope you’re right. Remain sceptical.
  19. jkcarew
    Three different major league managers have seen fit to give Austin 3 of his 65 (most with the Yankees) MLB starts in the outfield. And the last time he played more games in the OF than 1B/DH was the 2015 season. Since then, very few appearances in the OF, and even fewer starts there. Those numbers would suggest that he’s proven to a number of managers at various levels that he’s not a serviceable outfielder.
  20. jkcarew
    So, you’re saying the club will go with a 4-man bench once the schedule picks up? What makes you think that? All indications are that 13 pitchers will be carried for the bulk of the year. Makes the topic moot.
  21. jkcarew
    Excellent analysis! The outs are going to come in bunches...fast and furious. The ball better leave the park on a regular basis...even if it does, there are going to be long stretches of excruciatingly painful offensive baseball. And this from the article regarding facing left-handed pitching...the problem here is that Austin won't be on the 25-man roster...or at least BOTH Austin and Cron won't be on the roster.. Twins hitters who are better than average against lefties over their careers: .937 Tyler Austin .927 Nelson Cruz .846 Miguel Sano .776 C.J. Cron That’s it. Considering the composition of the other teams in the division, however, this doesn’t seem like such a bad problem to have. While there are fewer guys who hold their own against lefties, those top three can really mash.
  22. jkcarew
    I like it. Polanco's performance has steadily improved since he's become a full-time player, the suspension not withstanding. I'm with those that don't see this as anything other than locking up an asset that's likely to hold or appreciate in value. I don't think it means they are committed to Polanco for the life of the contract, nor do I think it means that Gordon or Javier are automatically out of luck. It's worth repeating that the extension likely improves Polanco's trade value around the anticipated arrival time of Lewis and Javier.
  23. jkcarew
    But his SLG was higher last year than it was before the suspension....higher than it's ever been.
  24. jkcarew
    I'm a little surprised at least one of you didn't have Kirilloff 1 and Lewis 2. Everybody must REALLY love them some Royce Lewis, 'cause I don't think Kirilloff is far from the show if he rakes in AA. Can hardly wait to see what these guys do this year.
  25. jkcarew
    Barely 20 years old in A ball and put up wRC+ of 97...don’t beat yourself up too much, kid! Good luck and enjoy the ride as much as you can!
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