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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    He's in his fifth professional season, with about 1/3 of the season remaining...and he isn't pitching...and he has a total of 200 professional innings under his belt. If nothing else, he's in danger of approaching rule-5 eligibility before the Twins really know what they have or before he's prepared to be a major league regular starting pitcher. Maybe he's a reliever. The risks are growing with him, IMO. And, while many will disagree, I don't think your thoughts on Graterol are unreasonable.
  2. jkcarew
    .914 OPS in his last 24 games (month of July). Playing a regular center field.
  3. jkcarew
    Not really the point, is it? Professional athletes, baseball players, pitchers...surgeons...perform under those circumstances all the time. But not when they have a choice. When teams have to travel the evening before game days, they routinely send that starting pitcher to travel ahead of the team.
  4. jkcarew
    Well, he got little-to-no sleep in getting himself to Chicago in the wee hours today (this has been reported). Then turns around and travels back to Miami this evening...and has to make himself available less than 24 hours after his return to perform in a pennant race. That would have been the scenario without the scheduled day off. I’m pretty confident he would not have made the trip if not for the scheduled off day tomorrow.
  5. jkcarew
    Would have been probably professionally ill-advised, if not irresponsible, for Romo to do what he did...if not for the scheduled off-day tomorrow. That gave him the opportunity to make the decision he made.
  6. jkcarew
    Yes.
  7. jkcarew
    Nobody here was calling Diaz “another Twins draft bust”. The community is much more knowledgeable than that! We were calling him “another Twins international signing bust”. And I can’t believe we just GAVE him away.
  8. jkcarew
    Interesting analogy. Cron is almost exactly league average offensively as a first-baseman. If Romo is expected to be a league average reliever for us, it’s perfectly natural, IMO, to have two types of reactions. If you think this is it, while it probably improves the situation, you’re critical that this move pushes the Twins over any significant hurdle. If you’re convinced a bigger pitching acquisition is coming, you view this more favorably.
  9. jkcarew
    But in 2018 facing the Yankees, in 8.2 innings over several appearances, Romo ‘only’ gave up 16 base-runners and 5 runs (no HR’s). In the annals of Twins/Yankees in the 21st century, that would be our Mariano Rivera. This could very well result in an extra 9-8 win or two...and even if not, this should at least shave an average of 15 minutes per game off or losses.
  10. jkcarew
    Concur that the FO will look for every bit of evidence to justify aggressiveness with Lewis. He’s been better offensively for a few weeks, and off he goes. I wouldn’t be surprised if the bat struggles a bit at Pensacola for a while, but if it gets too bad, they can always promote him to Rochester, where everyone hits (see Jaylin Davis, or Jimmy Kerrigan. Or anybody.)
  11. jkcarew
    I consider this a conservative move...the type of move I would consider ‘smart’ when made by a club on the periphery of contention. You get a bullpen rental that should help at least marginally in leverage situations...and you exchange a prospect for which you have a pending roster dilemma for a decent, but further from the majors, prospect at a position of organizational need. I would think at least one, more aggressive, move is coming. Also, fascinating to think what a difference less than 4 months makes. If this deal...involving Diaz...had been made on April 1 (not that such deals are often made in that time-frame), we all would have been dancing in the streets or doubled over in laughter at the incompetence of the Marlin FO.
  12. jkcarew
    Defensive contribution to WAR is inflated for players that play center-field (see Max Kepler). It's much harder to have defense contributing significantly to WAR once moved to the corner...assuming your bat warrants even playing in the corner. He needs to keep moving the bar in the positive direction with the bat. Having said that, even at this current/2019 level (not yet 26) he's very good...and from this point forward, the primary challenge might simply be...WAR/G is only truly valuable when you play games. He's got to be in the lineup consistently...eventually...somehow.
  13. jkcarew
    As has been pointed out numerous times by numerous posters in these threads...something has to be done with the rotation between now and next March...regardless of whether the FO thinks something needs to be done this week. 60% of the rotation are going to be free agents...and there are zero obvious options (for 2020) in the minors IMO, you might as well try to get a controllable (even if just for 2020) starter now, before the deadline, and kill two birds. Even if the guy isn't 'guaranteed' to move the needle in the post-season, you still need to worry about getting there this year and again next year.
  14. jkcarew
    The annual ‘Twins won’t be intimidated against the Yankees’ narrative is so cute. The Twins will best the Yankees when they have a better team than the Yankees. There is no jinx or intimidation factor to agonize over when one team is simply better than the other. The fact that the gap is smaller than it’s been in recent memory is really no consolation.
  15. jkcarew
    I’m not buying. They are every day players that (for the large majority of the season) have batted 1-2 in the order. There is bound to be a correlation of some strength when those spots go hot/cold. But the strength of the offense is that the depth exists to survive, and survive quite nicely for periods, with other guys carrying them. I would do this concept on the top of the rotation...Berrios and at least one of Gibson and Odorrizi need to pitch well, and deep (even by today’s standards) into games...or the Twins will continue to slide to the edge of the playoff picture. Because, when it comes to the pitching staff as a whole, we have the opposite of depth.
  16. jkcarew
    I do think Davis is probably a perfect example of how results in the 2019 International League need to be evaluated 'carefully'. His results in AA this year were good, after the promotion to Rochester, his results have been ridiculous. But if you look closer at his AAA results, you see that his K-rate ticked up (only slightly), and his BB-rate took a hit....not unexpected after a promotion. But with Rochester, every time he puts the ball in play it seems to be bounding off the fences or flying over them...the HR rate at Rochester is more than double what it was at Pensacola.
  17. jkcarew
    Actually, OBP-wise, Buxton doesn't help. Both Cave and Gonzalez have better OBP's. Offensively, Buxton is 'more-of-the-same'...doubles and HR and low OBP. Twins team OPS+ is 119, Buxton's is 107. Team's OBP is .339, Buxton's is .308. But, we agree, he makes the bottom of the order better overall...and was showing signs of taking further steps.
  18. jkcarew
    This. Record while in/out of the lineup is next to meaningless in itself. He's OPS+'ing 107 (we'll take it!) in the 9 hole. We're much better defensively in the outfield with him. The outfield defense hasn't been a primary contributing factor is losses.
  19. jkcarew
    A 5 for 5 should always get a mention, even when a teammate hits 3 HR’s. Jaylin Davis went 5 for 5 with 3 doubles. Apparently, his launcher wasn’t launching. Johanna Duran’s turn in the rotation came up...so you knew Fort Myers wasn’t going to manage to score a run.
  20. jkcarew
    But, I don't think strait math does it justice, does it? If you never know when you'll have the next chance...if that next chance is never guaranteed...it can still make sense to goose the current odds even marginally, because you're goosing 'high' odds. In this argument, I don't care about theoretical future chances of a pennant going from 10% to 18% as much as I care about this years odds going from 33 to 38. It's a game, so it comes down to philosophy. But, to the extent that some will look at it as strait math...the math would need to assume not only how much an acquired player(s) increase odds in a vacuum...but also how much the odds decrease if no moves are made (as other contenders will certainly not remain static...that will be the case this year, and in every other year the Twins might be in a position to compete). I don't argue the math, but think there is a point where it is 'worth' it, despite the math. (Not to mention that some prospect trades solve future roster log-jambs.)
  21. jkcarew
    Adding Vazquez, or even Vazquez and Kennedy doesn't make the Twins WS favorites. For that to be even remotely true, you'd have to assume the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees do nothing at the deadline to goose their odds further. But, even in that unlikely scenario, it's doubtful the Twins odds would surpass the Astros, and still wouldn't approach the Dodgers. I'm not saying that means you shouldn't do anything...or that aggressiveness isn't warranted. As I mentioned, you probably need to be fairly aggressive just to maintain 'good/decent' odds.
  22. jkcarew
    Keoni Cavaco is .186 /.239 /.256...his OPS is .495 It's an extremely small sample. But, some reports at draft time had him as extremely raw. And he doesn't seem to be exactly ahead of the competition so far in the GCL.
  23. jkcarew
    In his small-sample (127 PA) AAA season so far, Jaylin Davis has a higher HR-rate (much higher) than Brent Rooker...and a lower K-rate. Meanwhile, we can assume he's a much superior defensive outfielder than Rooker (numbers back this up; Rochester has already played Davis 5 games in CF, etc.). Davis is 4 months older than Rooker. Of course, even if the sample was larger, this doesn't mean much. By all accounts, and despite his swing-and-miss challenges, Rooker was/is the much more polished power-hitting prospect. But still....maybe we should gtk Jaylin Davis all over again?... http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/get-to-know-kernels-outfielder-jaylin-davis-r5199
  24. jkcarew
    The biggest culprit in terms of offensive value seems to be that Gordon has not demonstrated any power this year. Three HR in 268 PA...in the 2019 International league, yet. He was showing signs of that tool emerging back in 2017, but no. Same problem Lamonte Wade has...at least Gordon is a middle infielder. Then again Gordon has a higher SLG than the .401 Luis Arraez showed in his 237 minor-league PA this year So, you never know.
  25. jkcarew
    To date, three of the four weakest SoS in MLB are from the AL Central. Cleveland weakest, Twins basically tied for 3rd weakest. This was expected. Cleveland more or less not trying to win games, but will likely continue to track toward a playoff appearance that they'd just as soon defer.
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