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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I’m only interested in how many games he plays in center. With Buxton, the great SLG comes with a very low OBP…and he’s not going to be steeling bases in numbers anymore, either…irregardless of the larger bases. The result is a good run producer, but not great or unique in that regard. Also, keep in mind that, with this roster, DH’ing Buxton agains left-handed pitching probably forces an additional left-handed OF bat into the the lineup. Meanwhile, if you DH him against right-handed pitching, his run producing ability suffers further…(career 293 OBP against righties…299 last year). So, Buxton as a DH…especially with this roster…does nothing for me, and I don’t think it will do much of anything for the Twins in 2023, either. Strange but true… Buxton and Gallo are almost exactly the same age and have almost exactly the same career OPS+. (Gallo is 29 days older than Buxton, will a career OPS+ of 109, vs Buxton’s 108; Gallo has appeared in 167 more games than Buxton.)
  2. jkcarew
    Exactly!
  3. jkcarew
    In most years and among the typical high-level Twins prospect, this would have entailed catastrophic damage to the pitching fingers/hand, necessitating a dozen surgeries and Balazovic having to learn to throw with his left hand. My take? This is going to be the year the breaks turn in our favor!! And we can thank our lucky stars that we have the only Canadian athlete in history that doesn’t know how to land a punch in a fist-fight.
  4. jkcarew
    If you put Mauer on here, you need to put Oliva. Oliva had just as many great years as Mauer. Blyleven a no-brainer if he hadn’t left at such a young age. Hard to overstate how good he was in first stint with Twins ‘70-‘75. In an era where starters paced themselves…no max-efforting every pitch, instead pitching 300 innings/yr…still nobody could hit him, and with a ton of swing-and-miss.
  5. jkcarew
    If you put Mauer on here, you need to put Oliva. Oliva had just as many great years as Mauer.
  6. jkcarew
    Fwiw…my 2023 PECOTA comp comes out as 1936 Babe Ruth. ZiPS has me at 1961 Ted Williams.
  7. jkcarew
    The only thing meaningful I take from this is that our best starter comes out at around the 33rd best. So, basically…and on average, every team in the league has almost exactly 1.0 starters better than the Twins best starter. Now, we know in the real world this means some teams have more than one better (let’s call them “contenders”) and some have none (“tankers”). Twins are right in between…this is SUCH a Classic Minnesota Twins factoid.
  8. jkcarew
    I agree that the price would be steep. Still, since Milwaukee expects to compete this year, it’s extremely unlikely they trade Burnes now. Burnes has no leverage to do anything than pitch the best he can to ensure the life-changing contract that is two years away. Milwaukee is just fine with that. And if they DID trade him, they’d want part of the deal to include at least one very solid (not returning from injury like Maeda) starter…and/or a top of the top pitching prospect very near readiness. Twins just aren’t a good match.
  9. jkcarew
    I’m a little skeptical of the abundance of confidence in Lee’s power projections…particularly comments like “he already shows above average power”. He hit 4 home runs last year in 139 PA. The +power is still a projection at this point, IMO. Having said that, I have no problem giving the nod to the hit-first guy (Lee) over the ‘toolsy’ guy (Lewis). It’s usually the other way around. Besides, it looks like Lee will come with plenty of defensive flexibility in his own right.
  10. jkcarew
    Exactly. Carew, among others, got his ACL playing second base…countless others on the base paths. The second you take your most athletic guys out of the middle of the field, you compromise their value. Is Lewis likely to hit like an above average 1B or DH? No. Are corner infielders with wRC+ of 110 game-changers? Not really. Is a good center fielder or shortstop with the same wRC+ a game changer? Yes. Let’s have the 23 year old prospect with speed put up a 900 OPS season or two before we move him to DH. Until then, we’ll have to live with the risk of reinjury no matter where he plays.
  11. jkcarew
    Doesn’t do anything for me. More evidence that he was lucky last year than that he was good. And 2021 was nothing to write home about either. Minor league deal would be good.
  12. jkcarew
    If Gallo were ACTUALLY as good as Dunn offensively I’d be very excited. Dunn had several years way, way better than Gallo’s best year. Dunn’s career OBP higher than Carlos Correa’s. Gallo way more flexible/useful defensively…by a mile. The Gallo/Dunn comp kinda lazy, IMO. (I realize you’re not making the comp, just reacting to it 🙂) 12 months ago, Joc Peterson would have been the perfect comp…then Peterson had one of his best seasons, and Gallo had one of his worst.
  13. jkcarew
    You forgot the biggest ‘disappointment’ in the projections. If a healthy Kirilloff is a 93 DRC+/wRC+ guy, he has almost no value…and the middle of the batting order will be even thinner than feared. Also, if you consider Gordon a disappointment at 86, how do you feel about Farmer at 87… a guy most here consider to have been brought on as a right-handed ‘bat’. My bet is that if Correa and Buxton both have full-ish seasons, Correa will have the higher DRC+/wRC+. These suggest the defense, staters, and bullpen all need to be good for this team to contend. Probably correct.
  14. jkcarew
    I also don’t get the anger/frustration with Rocco having put him in CF. You play your best athletes at short and center…if you like winning. There’s about 150 years of evidence proving the benefit in that and the same for proof that injuries occur all over the field. He looked good. I agree that the plate discipline was a bit disappointing even with the low K rate. The defensive flexibility is very nice. I have no problem with Lewis breaking in as a supper-utility guy playing nearly every day. FWIW…I see Farmer as the redundant roster guy when Lewis settles in…not Gordon. Gordon is more valuable than Farmer. With Lewis in the mix, I can put RH bats at two outfield positions, all four infield positions, and catcher…and still have a guy like Jeffers who can do real damage against lefties, remaining to DH…all without Farmer. That’s 8 RH bats in the lineup…providing a little wiggle room for injuries.
  15. jkcarew
    Gordon is a utility (super-utility if you prefer) player who happens to have speed/range. Up to now, the roster has provided nearly every-day opportunities to play in spots that benefit from the range…outfield and middle infield. I think the club would not hesitate to give him 3B starts going forward if circumstances change. He has the arm, no problem there.
  16. jkcarew
    Good reminders here that the career results are probably better than they first appear due to the home park. I remain skeptical for no reason other than the big question on the health of the arm/shoulder.
  17. jkcarew
    Very high for a 4th round pick with 65 professional innings, no? Or hopefully not too high, just too early.
  18. jkcarew
    Randy Bush. Which can be VERY useful on a good team. I see him as a classic high floor, low ceiling guy. If the power develops significantly (big if, IMO)…he’s more than that.
  19. jkcarew
    I think these projections are reasonable. Maybe optimistic in the sense that there is the statistical likelihood that there will always be at least one dud among a group as large as 7 players. But taken separately, I think each projections is not unreasonable. Also, fwiw...if Buxton's OPS is 800, that's going to be a pretty bad year. His very high ISO is pretty much established at this point. He needs >825 OPS or we're looking at a really, really low OBP. His OBP last year was disappointing despite the 833 OPS. I would like to see the BB% get to 10%, and the OBP to get >320. But, yeah, health trumps everything with him.
  20. jkcarew
    FWIW...I grabbed 98 pitchers that made at least 20 starts last year (and zero relief appearances). Gray ranked 84th among the 98 in IP/Start at a fraction LESS THAN 5 IP/Start. Of course, this probably makes him look like an iron-man on Rocco's staff. But, still.
  21. jkcarew
    He's not very close to being an ace. I'd say he has another $15M-$20M/yr to go before he gets there.
  22. jkcarew
    It’ll be interesting to see how successful Waller will be making the adjustments after having got that first taste. I don’t know what to make of him. I don’t think he can be an everyday starting OF in the majors…at least with a contending team. It’s pretty brutal. And that raises the bar on what the bat has to be to provide value as a 1B (or DH). On the other hand, he seems to have the makings of a good handle on the strike zone. If the K rate can comes down a little…he might really be an offensive weapon, because I think the power and OBP would be there.
  23. jkcarew
    And you can find him wearing sweats at the far end of the dugout….or DH’ing…in a city near you!
  24. jkcarew
    I like Gio…nice 3rd baseman. But you’re going to need several more paragraphs to get me to even start seeing how Kepler has anything actually material to do with Urshela as far as roster construction goes. They are not going to move Miranda to every-day 1B at this point in his career…the Urshela trade is proof of that. I’ll listen to arguments that Kirilloff/Gallo are redundant…maybe even Kepler/Gallo. Gio will be making over $9M this year…to platoon with the Twins? Instead, the Twins sold high on a nice, not great, player…and signed Farmer for $5.5M to platoon.
  25. jkcarew
    Probably realistic. Although, I see his upside more #3-ish. The struggles against better offensive teams are a real thing (see Berrios) and those that are consistently good against those teams are legit #1-2 guys. Like you say, I don’t think Ryan necessarily needs to get THERE to warrant the value or validate the trade. But, I like his demeanor on the mound…seems to have the ‘good’ arrogance genes that help, IMO, break through at this level.
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