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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    All of this makes sense...if both your short-term and long-term goal is to win the AL central. The only reason Cleveland was willing to 'gamble' on Clevinger in 2017 is that they already had Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Josh Tomlin in the rotation. Not much of a gamble for a team in their competitive window...and not exactly analogous to the Twins situation headed into 2020. Also, worth noting that even with that staff, Cleveland failed to win even one playoff series in either 2017 or 2018...going 2-6. The fact is, the Twins need better starting pitching if they want to win in the post-season. A LOT better starting pitching.
  2. jkcarew
    So, in summation... When a prospect did great under the old regime (Buxton), it was an indication of the old regime's ignorance...and that prospect was destined to fail. And when a prospect struggles under the new regime (Lewis), it's an indication of the new regime's wisdom....and that prospect is destined to succeed. (tongue only slightly in cheek)
  3. jkcarew
    If there was ever a situation to 'force' an off-season trade, the Twins are smack dab in the middle of it right now. They already have, not one...but two...starters that will join the staff in the middle of the year. Meanwhile, you're expected to contend, but may have two teams capable of challenging in the division...and you have holes in your starting staff for huge chunks of games in the first third/half of the year.
  4. jkcarew
    But why would you assume $120 would get the job done? If Atlanta gets the last opportunity to match, it's a 100% guarantee that he WANTS to go to Atlanta. Atlanta doesn't have to "match" the $120 to get him. If the scenario is as you describe in the article, an offer of $120 is only likely to get Donaldson about $10 million more from the team he wants to play for. After all, that's less than "what amounts to a relief arm" over the length of the contract. The Twins would get better results if they first convinced Donaldson (by words and actions...things like acquiring a stud pitcher usually qualify) that he wants to play for the Twins....and then offering him $110.
  5. jkcarew
    I don't think Thorpe has a particular problem with his pitches not playing against righties (vs lefties). At least in 2019, both righties and lefties crushed him in the majors...and neither righties or lefties crushed him at Rochester. To me, he simply lacks major-league command. Young guys without command typically fall into two categories...those afraid to throw the ball over the plate; and those that get crushed when they throw the ball over the plate. Thorpe had periods of both, but mainly fell into the latter category. Give Thorpe Smeltzer's command, and we'll have something. And BABiP regression should help a bit.
  6. jkcarew
    Interesting proposals. Honestly feel that the Archer deal is the LEAST likely to be made by the trade partner. And, even at just two years of Archer, a no-brainer if you're the Twins. Find it interesting that these options seem to go out of their way to protect Lewis. I see Graterol and Kirilloff, but no Lewis. Plenty of risk remains with Lewis's projections...offensively and defensively. The Twins should be willing to include him in some of these offers.
  7. jkcarew
    The break even success rate for stolen bases is approaching 75% for teams with power....and is easily into the 70's league-wide. . Break Even Rate = 0.590 + (3.33 x (HR/PA)) source: Fangraphs So, one CS erases the value of 3 successful attempts. That significantly mitigates the value of even Buxton's 82% (2019) success rate. It's also why nobody else on the club attempts stolen bases at all...to speak of. For scoring runs and winning games...especially in the modern HR-dominated game, OBP trumps every other metric by light-years in that spot. I'm guessing Rocco will be willing to put Arraez there more now that he's into his second year at the MLB level?
  8. jkcarew
    The 2014 Giants? They were basically the same team that had already won two world series. Meanwhile, the 2006 Cardinals had to deal with only one team in the NL field that year that won even 90 games. The 2019 Twins were dominated by a team that was handled by a team, that was handled by another team. Not even in the universe of realistically winning anything of significance in the 2019 post-season. (Also, had a losing record against +500 teams.) The Twins need to get significantly better to have a realistic shot. "Get to the playoffs and anything can happen" might be a legitimate strategy for teams in two or three of the divisions in MLB...but it's been fools gold for the Twins. The Twins haven't been unlucky in every single playoff appearance since 2000. They haven't been good enough.
  9. jkcarew
    You probably have 3 moves you 'need' to make before the season starts... Get a starter to 'replace' Gibson Get a starter for the front of the rotation Get someone worthy of being an every-day 1st or 3rd baseman for a contender This gets the first of these three things done...the one that moves the needle the least. What's the chances both of the next two get done? I wouldn't bet on it. Or if I were to make that bet, I feel like it would be a wager influenced by my heart, not my head. IMO, Hill is the FO's idea of insurance against having to make a deadline deal for starting help. In fact, in the unlikely (at least I hope it's unlikely) event an implosion/big injuries, etc. has happened and the Twins are out of it at the deadline...I could see Hill never throwing a pitch for the Twins....or just enough pitches to prove his health. His cost could be artificially high at the 2020 deadline...left-handed, experienced/good reputation,...fresh, with a well-timed return to health.
  10. jkcarew
    I'd want to consider having Graterol start (or 'primary') until Pineda is up to speed. Then...somehow...figure out how Graterol could also be healthy/available for a bullpen and spot starting role down the stretch and into the post-season. Undoubtedly, that plan would include severely restricting his innings through the middle months of the season....or even more likely, shutting him down in that time-frame. But then again, Graterol has been shut down at some point during every single season of his professional career. The best choice for ensuring that he's available for the entire season and post-season is the bullpen. For that reason, I'd be ok with that being the going-in plan for 2020. But, these options kinda make me think that the Twins could use another quality starter.
  11. jkcarew
    Thanks. The rankings are interesting. Obviously, the Twins have taken the approach that they'll 'participate' in free agency along the same general lines that the Clevelands, Oaklands, and Tampa Bays will. It only works if you're good at drafting, developing, evaluating, and trading. Which the Twins haven't been. Maybe they'll be better in the next decade...but I don't expect the FA spending strategy to change. Also worth noting that as good as Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa Bay have been at executing this strategy...they appeared in (and lost) a combined grand total of one world series in the decade.
  12. jkcarew
    Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea plus $21.6M = "mortgaging the future"? Come on, now. If they had saved the $21M, that would have covered a grand total of ONE year of the contract Hosmer got from the Padres when he hit free agency. The Royals are where they are because they chose not to retain the core of the championship team when they reached free agency (and, for the most part, also failed to trade those pieces for value before they left). Not because of $21M and parting with two prospects that put up a combined total of 3.7 bWAR last year. I get the intent of the article, but the 2015 Royals would be a better example of "smart aggressiveness"....not "mortgaging the future".
  13. jkcarew
    The Twins OF had a collective wRC+ of 107 last year...even with the issues. Not exactly where a club in the Twins situation should be focusing scarce FA resources. And then there's the fact that outfield is easily the position of greatest organizational depth. Meanwhile, there's just no explaining the fascination some have with Billy Hamilton. He runs fast apparently. But, Usain Bolt would be a bad major league baseball player if he hit like Billy Hamilton. And he probably can.
  14. jkcarew
    It's pretty unusual, in terms of how significant, and how long he's sustained it. It does make this a more intriguing signing, IMO.
  15. jkcarew
    Eloy Jimenez
  16. jkcarew
    Interesting article...good concept. Think of these competing narratives as risk. Then think of that risk as the 'hidden' cost of operating at the middle and bottom of the free agency market.
  17. jkcarew
    "Graterol was an exciting call-up at season’s end last year and the Twins used him entirely out of the bullpen. The plan will most definitely be for him to return to the rotation to start 2020." Huh? Most definitely? This sounds like news, and as such, you should probably name your source. Relying on these possibilities is both a legitimate plan and not a legitimate plan. A legitimate plan (arguably) for winning a weak division. And not legitimate in any way for winning in the AL playoffs.
  18. jkcarew
    Don't think it's likely that Kepler or Berrios take big sustainable steps from here. They could, but it doesn't seem that likely. With Buxton, it's all about the likelihood that he can play 140 games. The person who would seem to have one of the bigger opportunities to step up purely from a performance standpoint would be Rosario (assuming he's not traded)...and perhaps a 'surprise' rookie or second-year player along the lines of 2019 Arraez....but maybe on the pitching side.
  19. jkcarew
    I mean...the national writers, when commenting on the swing, in addition to incorporating their own reactions, are incorporating information from scouts (at least some scouts) who HAVE seen hundreds of his at-bats. Regarding Buxton...it's pretty hard to criticize how the Twins handled Buxton at this (Lewis's) stage of development. Buxton destroyed minor-league pitching in his age 21 season....and in every season, other than the injury-shortened age 20 season. Having said that, I'm with you on the balancing act between messing with him and letting him figure things out himself. I can accept arguments on both sides of that depending upon how impatient I am on that day.
  20. jkcarew
    The cold reality is how awful drafting and development of pitching has been for the last decade. While most of that is not on the current FO, you still need to concede (IMO) that the current administration so far has failed in either anticipating 2019...or in reacting to it. Anyone could see the pitching dilemma coming from a mile away. Still, I just can't get that into weighing in on why/how they're failing. Too much of it crosses my personal line between reasonably-informed opinion...into simple guessing. Besides, the why doesn't matter to me. Just like for players, results are all that really matters. It's getting late.
  21. jkcarew
    Probably the most important thing...still...is how his defensive game at SS develops. He can be an iffy hitter if he's a solid major league shortstop. But if he has to move to a corner...or even center field...his value becomes much more dependent upon the bat coming around. Right now, the results aren't good...and the swing is ugly.
  22. jkcarew
    I think I was trying to take credit away from Ziggy, not contribute to Twins excuses.
  23. jkcarew
    This. To me, there are seats that I wouldn't pay a penny for if NOT behind a screen...and then there are seats I wouldn't pay a penny for if they WERE behind a screen. I suppose everyone is going to disagree on this...or at least disagree on where that line is. FWIW, I draw that line well short of the foul polls. But, exit velo, phones, etc....I guess it was inevitable.
  24. jkcarew
    I get that Ziggy seems good at projecting that persona. But it's completely apples/oranges vs the Twins scenario. Ziggy's payroll is pre-determined every year. There's a hard cap. It's just a matter of how he distributes the payroll. When the Vikings go out and get Cousins, it shows a willingness to gamble to achieve results...but it's not a financial gamble in any way/shape/form for Ziggy.
  25. jkcarew
    But this infers that the Twins had an opportunity to counter. And we don't know that. Once the 'neighborhood' was established, it's absolutely feasible that the Wheeler camp would have shut things down rather than wait for a Twins offer of $120-125M only to use it to play (risky) games with the franchise with whom they had already decided they want to coexist over the next 5 years. Even in the scenario where the Twins had the opportunity to counter, but refused to move...do we know if that was the FO or the Pohlads who declined? It would matter it terms of the direction some of these threads are going. My only point being...we don't know. And we'll never know. Every deal that doesn't get done is a black hole of speculation. Of course, if the Twins had opened with $135M, then we probably don't need to speculate. Of course, I think that's what some are waiting to see from the Twins....if not, just for once.
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