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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    It's a question of timing, I would think. Spending money on a 3rd baseman simply isn't a priority for 2020 with all the holes in the pitching staff. However, at some point (even if Sano 'maintains' at 3B) you have to solve for first base. And if that solve is Sano, you'll need a 3rd baseman. And where is the upcoming 3rd-baseman in the system? Lewis? That's problematic. One, I'm pretty sure when you spent the first overall pick, you thought you were drafting a SS or a CF...at worse, a 2B. Secondly, and I know he's very young...but so far, there's been precious little to suggest he's going to be a legitimate 3B type bat at the major league level.
  2. jkcarew
    Huh? A 103 wRC+ is a 103 wRC+. It speaks for itself, and it accounts for Rosario's 32 home runs. But since you mentioned it...46 other guys hit at least 32 home runs last year...and a whole bunch of them were corner outfielders. Everyone hit home runs in 2019. In fact, Rosario's home run rate (HR/AB) was barely better than that of Jason Castro and Jonathan Schoop...and his OBP was basically the lowest on the team (lower than Schoop). So, no...those numbers aren't good...they're barely average for players that play his position. I don't hate Eddie. I do think he's a good RBI guy. You can't knock in runs if you don't swing the bat...and Eddie certainly does that. And he benefited in that regard from hitting immediately behind Kepler, Polanco, and Cruz all year long. And, as mentioned, I do think he was bothered by injuries in 2019. Maybe I should have also added that I don't think Rosario is a priority 'problem' to solve...Twins have bigger issues than left field, even at the level Rosario played in 2019. But the post asks people to weigh in on Eddie....and 2019 wasn't very pretty, IMO.
  3. jkcarew
    I wouldn’t call Rosario in 2019 “good”. His OPS+ was 106, his wRC+ 103...which for left fielders in the league is barely average. There were 31 left fielders in the majors with more than 200 PA that posted better wRC+ in 2019. There were a similar number of players that played significant time in LF that had better WAR. I do think he was bothered by injury...and I do think he is a better player than he showed in 2019. Not sure I’d extend him though. Depends on what they think of their developing corner outfield prospects. And, while including him in a package for pitching might make sense, the package would still need to include a top-end prospect to return a top end arm with any team control.
  4. jkcarew
    Polanco or Cruz. Cruz, probably. It’s not like Polanco or Kepler were needle-movers defensively...despite the artificial boost Kepler’s defensive metrics got from his time playing center. And while both had very good years offensively, neither were that close to Cruz’s level.
  5. jkcarew
    I think it'd be pretty easy to go through past Twins' rosters and confirm that this should be a non-factor in terms of precedent.
  6. jkcarew
    In the drafts from 2011-2015, Houston out-drafted the Twins by about 50 WAR. 50. In that stretch the Twins have about 30 WAR...all wrapped up in Buxton, Berrios, Rogers (all from 2012)...and Garver. Meanwhile, Houston drafted Springer, Correa, McCullers, Bregman, and guys like Ramon Laureano, who was about a 4-WAR player with the A's this year. Many of those years...especially 13-15...the Twins had very early picks and have nothing to show for it...with time running out. (If you go back another year, the Twins have Rosario to show...but the Astros out-drafted them in that draft as well, getting good players they traded for WS pieces like Evan Gattis and Ken Giles.) And regarding international signings...in the 12+ combined seasons of Sano, Polanco, and Kepler so far, they have a total of about 29 WAR. Just Altuve has about 39 WAR in his 8+ seasons. With every game one actually watches the Astros play, it's more and more obvious how far the Twins are from that organization. Basically, the Twins need to get more aggressive with trades...they have to get more aggressive with payroll....AND they have to have the prospects they keep hit, and hit BIG. That's basically what we're watching with Houston...still, they found a way to lose a playoff series last year, which is probably the good news.
  7. jkcarew
    I'll give you Cole, there. Not Verlander. His mid-career (injury-related) two-year lull was well over. He had posted over 7 WAR the year before he was traded...then 6.4 the year Houston acquired him....which is pretty much exactly what Houston has got from him since. While it would have been reasonable to expect some drop-off...everyone knew Houston was getting a top-end pitcher when that deal was made.
  8. jkcarew
    I'd take Wheeler in a heart-beat. Like others, don't think he's any more of an ace that Berrios, but I'd take him. What I like about him is his relative consistency in getting into at least the 7th inning. I might like Burgarner more in the shortest term...but do worry more about the miles on his arm relative to Wheeler, despite being only one year older. It'll be interesting to see how many years Bumgarner gets.
  9. jkcarew
    Was Berrios 'bad' enough, and was Rogers good enough....that Rogers 69 innings were more valuable, or 'better,' than Berrios's 200+ innings? I'm with those that say no. Maybe some recency bias in light of how Berrios finished the year? While I feel the 2019 version of Berrios is not (ideally) what the Twins need as a number 1...he was still, by far, the most valuable starter, and probably the 'pitcher of the year'...primarily because he was the only guy that could consistently get into the 7th, and frequently the 8th, inning. The bullpen, including Rogers, probably would've been less effective if Berrios had averaged the 5.1 innings per start that was the norm for literally every other starter the Twins rolled out there this year.
  10. jkcarew
    Like others here, I think these names probably would work...they go in the middle of the rotation. But, we also need help at the top.
  11. jkcarew
    I understand the part article has a couple more parts, so I'll reserve judgement on the body when it is completed. In the meantime, this part deals with stuff on the margins. Smart philosophies and use of technology can't make average talent great...can't make 85-win talent beat (with any consistency) 95-win talent. Houston is Houston because they have better players. This, primarily because of how well they drafted (also great international signings) during the tanking years, and secondarily, because of their willingness to make trades. The stuff in this article, while it has value, is a relatively small factor in terms of impact on how good Houston is currently.
  12. jkcarew
    But if “showing fire” had anything to do with the first-round win...anything. At all. The solution for the second round should be pretty simple, right? Just show even more fire. Shildt must have forgotten to scream and shout after game one. Or...maybe he did, but it doesn’t work if the other team has Scherzer and Strasburg dealing.
  13. jkcarew
    "What we saw take place in the Division Series round is complete pandemonium. We’re a Tampa Bay Rays victory over Gerrit Cole and the Houston Astros away from complete chaos in the Championship round. That’s not to suggest the Postseason is a complete crapshoot, but it absolutely solidifies the reality that nothing in October is certain. The Dodgers and Astros had no business facing a game five. They were on a collision course to meet in the World Series. Instead, here we are." Not really. Tampa Bay lost...they didn't come really close to winning game 5. Why? Because the other team had dominant starting pitching. Meanwhile...over the final 3/4 of the season, the Dodgers and Nationals had identical records (74-38). And the Nationals have 2 (and arguably 3) starting pitchers better than the Twins best. This doesn't add up to "pandemonium" or anything close. If your talent puts you at 25% odds to win a playoff series against a top opponent, what's your chances of winning a 4th series after having already lost 3? 25%. It's never even a decent position to be in if you want to get to the WS. Moral: if you want to get at least 7 wins in the post season (this year's "phenomenal" performance by Tampa Bay netted them 2 wins)...you have to have top-end talent...especially on the pitching side of things. Twins need to go out and get that. No matter how...develop (not looking promising), trade, sign.
  14. jkcarew
    Twins add 5 minor Leaguers to 40 man roster. Twins lose OF Luke Raley in Rule 5 draft. Twins Daily faithful fills 15 pages of comments that it's the worst thing ever to lose Luke Raley. (chuckle) I think it's most fun to poke fun both at the Twins and also at ourselves!
  15. jkcarew
    "The [braves] started some s---. We finished the s---," Shildt says in the video, which outfielder Randy Arozarena later acknowledged he streamed live on Instagram. "And that's how we roll. No one f---s with us ever. Now, I don't give a f--- who we play. We're gonna f--- them up. We're gonna take it right to them the whole f---ing way. We're gonna kick their f---ing ass." The Cards are 0-2 since this "inspiring speech"...including 0-2 at home....with about 5 total hits. But, OK.
  16. jkcarew
    Nice article. Don't you think 'hope' has been the standard here for a long time? Don't you think 2020 is going to be more about 'expectation'? I'm not sure hope is going to have much of a shelf life in heading into 2020 coming off a 101-win season.
  17. jkcarew
    Defense is not the key to solving run prevention problems. That would be pitching. The defense can help...it's secondary. The problem is primarily on the infield, and it starts at short-stop. It's likely to get worse before it gets better, as you will continue to play your best offensive players...and Arraez is a down-grade from Schoop. The guys that are there will simply need to play better. You're not going to put a glove that OPS's .700 at short, third, or second...when you have guys there that OPS .850-.900+ And Crom was not a problem defensively. Although, if the Twins see someone available that they think can hit more at first than Crom...or someone that would be a legitimate corner bat at third...I could see them either going a different direction at first, or moving Sano.
  18. jkcarew
    I guess. Game 1 would be the game where one could catch at least the hint of the odor of victory. I'm not one to buy into the "if they had only won game one" theory, they had time to show they were ready for this level/stage, but the outcomes speak for themselves. Oh, well. Maybe Steven Tyler had it right back in the early 70's... I know nobody knows Where it comes and where it goes I know it's everybody sin You got to lose (in 3 straight humiliating games to the Yankees) to know how to win NEXT YEAR, baby!
  19. jkcarew
    I'm thinking there are two takes on the season... One, the Twins were a great team...about as good as any team in the league...and choked horribly in the playoffs. Two, the Twins were a good, not great, team...who's statistics/numbers were inflated due to the schedule...and went limping into the playoffs against a superior opponent Scenario One, you chalk it up to inexperience; you try to put another version of the 2019 pitching staff together, and you have another run at it. Scenario Two, you are forced to at least consider big hairy moves. To, me..even if you believe what happened is scenario One, you hope the FO believes it was Two.
  20. jkcarew
    Really? Mixing one win around the three losses we saw would have made a difference? I think I'd make a large wager that, while that might be the case for fans, the players/team wouldn't have looked at it that way. I certainly hope they wouldn't have looked at it that way. A series win would have been great, next a truly competitive series loss...but they'll have to settle for that late series in Cleveland for the division as their inspiration. There's always something to build on...it's the execution part that's hard Could argue that the utter failure makes it more, not less, likely that aggressive moves are made to get the club to a championship level. OK, that's ridiculous. I'm just up here trying.
  21. jkcarew
    Hearts not into something that's usually fun. Sigh. Too many fielding mistakes, too many bad decisions, too many poorly executed pitches, too many instances of batters not being able to hold their water. Honestly, it takes a dozen examples to rationalize even a sniff at one win. And that would be one win. Did I say sigh yet?
  22. jkcarew
    The team that had no relationship, in any way, to the clubs of past post-season failures...that team is suddenly somehow 0-16 in the playoffs? No this team is 0-3 in the playoffs. Maybe this club will never break through, like the others...but maybe they will. IMO, the take away for the front office (and objective fans) should be: the modern post-season is not at all a "just get there and anything can happen" proposition. That narrative has been myth for a while now. You don't get through two rounds, winning 7 games, against the best in baseball without having multiple players capable of dominating very good opposition. And I'm not wasting time getting worked up about the sweep or the scores. It was painful, yes...but you either win or you lose. You were either good enough or you weren't. Maybe the flop works in fan's favor. Based on the level of play they had established in the second half (to say nothing of other issues) this club wasn't sniffing the WS this year. Meanwhile, the FO should (I hope) be forced to acknowledge that the current club...despite the gaudy regular-season numbers, really isn't that close. That would be a good thing...not a bad thing.
  23. jkcarew
    Huh? The Yankees competition in the East was a collective 46 games under .500. The Twins competition in the Central was a collective 104 games under. The ALE wasn't as strong as it's been in the past...but it was easily more competitive than the ALC.
  24. jkcarew
    Disgrace baseball? No. Embarrass their fans, maybe...although I don't know why. Sometimes the other team is better. Sometimes you play poorly, and make things worse. And the Orioles of the late 60's beat the Twins in back-to-back series 6 games to 0...total runs were 43 to 15.
  25. jkcarew
    Anyone who thinks the Twins were a legitimate "100-win" team this year....in the historic sense of what it has meant to be a 100-win team...might be susceptible to unrealistic expectations for this post-season. The Twins were 5-games under 500 against teams with winning records. 10 teams were better than that, but the Twins got to play an AL Central schedule Having said that, I do think there are a number of Twins struggling under the harsh lights, making the match-up worse than it needs to be...Rocco is probably one.
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