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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea plus $21.6M = "mortgaging the future"? Come on, now. If they had saved the $21M, that would have covered a grand total of ONE year of the contract Hosmer got from the Padres when he hit free agency. The Royals are where they are because they chose not to retain the core of the championship team when they reached free agency (and, for the most part, also failed to trade those pieces for value before they left). Not because of $21M and parting with two prospects that put up a combined total of 3.7 bWAR last year. I get the intent of the article, but the 2015 Royals would be a better example of "smart aggressiveness"....not "mortgaging the future".
  2. jkcarew
    The Twins OF had a collective wRC+ of 107 last year...even with the issues. Not exactly where a club in the Twins situation should be focusing scarce FA resources. And then there's the fact that outfield is easily the position of greatest organizational depth. Meanwhile, there's just no explaining the fascination some have with Billy Hamilton. He runs fast apparently. But, Usain Bolt would be a bad major league baseball player if he hit like Billy Hamilton. And he probably can.
  3. jkcarew
    It's pretty unusual, in terms of how significant, and how long he's sustained it. It does make this a more intriguing signing, IMO.
  4. jkcarew
    Eloy Jimenez
  5. jkcarew
    Interesting article...good concept. Think of these competing narratives as risk. Then think of that risk as the 'hidden' cost of operating at the middle and bottom of the free agency market.
  6. jkcarew
    "Graterol was an exciting call-up at season’s end last year and the Twins used him entirely out of the bullpen. The plan will most definitely be for him to return to the rotation to start 2020." Huh? Most definitely? This sounds like news, and as such, you should probably name your source. Relying on these possibilities is both a legitimate plan and not a legitimate plan. A legitimate plan (arguably) for winning a weak division. And not legitimate in any way for winning in the AL playoffs.
  7. jkcarew
    Don't think it's likely that Kepler or Berrios take big sustainable steps from here. They could, but it doesn't seem that likely. With Buxton, it's all about the likelihood that he can play 140 games. The person who would seem to have one of the bigger opportunities to step up purely from a performance standpoint would be Rosario (assuming he's not traded)...and perhaps a 'surprise' rookie or second-year player along the lines of 2019 Arraez....but maybe on the pitching side.
  8. jkcarew
    I mean...the national writers, when commenting on the swing, in addition to incorporating their own reactions, are incorporating information from scouts (at least some scouts) who HAVE seen hundreds of his at-bats. Regarding Buxton...it's pretty hard to criticize how the Twins handled Buxton at this (Lewis's) stage of development. Buxton destroyed minor-league pitching in his age 21 season....and in every season, other than the injury-shortened age 20 season. Having said that, I'm with you on the balancing act between messing with him and letting him figure things out himself. I can accept arguments on both sides of that depending upon how impatient I am on that day.
  9. jkcarew
    The cold reality is how awful drafting and development of pitching has been for the last decade. While most of that is not on the current FO, you still need to concede (IMO) that the current administration so far has failed in either anticipating 2019...or in reacting to it. Anyone could see the pitching dilemma coming from a mile away. Still, I just can't get that into weighing in on why/how they're failing. Too much of it crosses my personal line between reasonably-informed opinion...into simple guessing. Besides, the why doesn't matter to me. Just like for players, results are all that really matters. It's getting late.
  10. jkcarew
    Probably the most important thing...still...is how his defensive game at SS develops. He can be an iffy hitter if he's a solid major league shortstop. But if he has to move to a corner...or even center field...his value becomes much more dependent upon the bat coming around. Right now, the results aren't good...and the swing is ugly.
  11. jkcarew
    I think I was trying to take credit away from Ziggy, not contribute to Twins excuses.
  12. jkcarew
    This. To me, there are seats that I wouldn't pay a penny for if NOT behind a screen...and then there are seats I wouldn't pay a penny for if they WERE behind a screen. I suppose everyone is going to disagree on this...or at least disagree on where that line is. FWIW, I draw that line well short of the foul polls. But, exit velo, phones, etc....I guess it was inevitable.
  13. jkcarew
    I get that Ziggy seems good at projecting that persona. But it's completely apples/oranges vs the Twins scenario. Ziggy's payroll is pre-determined every year. There's a hard cap. It's just a matter of how he distributes the payroll. When the Vikings go out and get Cousins, it shows a willingness to gamble to achieve results...but it's not a financial gamble in any way/shape/form for Ziggy.
  14. jkcarew
    But this infers that the Twins had an opportunity to counter. And we don't know that. Once the 'neighborhood' was established, it's absolutely feasible that the Wheeler camp would have shut things down rather than wait for a Twins offer of $120-125M only to use it to play (risky) games with the franchise with whom they had already decided they want to coexist over the next 5 years. Even in the scenario where the Twins had the opportunity to counter, but refused to move...do we know if that was the FO or the Pohlads who declined? It would matter it terms of the direction some of these threads are going. My only point being...we don't know. And we'll never know. Every deal that doesn't get done is a black hole of speculation. Of course, if the Twins had opened with $135M, then we probably don't need to speculate. Of course, I think that's what some are waiting to see from the Twins....if not, just for once.
  15. jkcarew
    2018 was the outlier. No thanks.
  16. jkcarew
    For a team ready to compete now, a healthy Cron in 2020 is a better option that most being thrown around in this thread, other than... Sano (but what do you do about 3rd, then) Garver (zero indication Rocco plans on playing him at first for significant games/innings)
  17. jkcarew
    Madison Bumgarner had essentially the same season that Zack Wheeler had last year. MadBum with a few more innings pitched, a better WHIP, essentially the same K/9...and a slightly lower ERA+. MadBum is less that 10 months older than Wheeler. I get the extra 'mileage'..theoretically. Still, less than 10 months older. Talk up Wheeler, and swoop in and get MadBum on friendlier terms! (I'm fine with at least one of MadBum, Ryu, or Wheeler.)
  18. jkcarew
    I guess we'll find out to what extent some teams are willing to take the tanking concept. Selecting Javier...and keeping him on a major-league roster for the entire year...would take it to a new level, IMO.
  19. jkcarew
    Beyond Rendon, the only one worth moving Sano to 1B and 'replacing' Cron in the line-up would be Donaldson in a short, win-now move. But since pitching is more pressing than replacing Cron, I'd expect that Sano stays at 3B until a more obvious candidate to replace him there comes along. Having said that, I do find it problematic that the Twins seem to have zero prospects (based on current positions and performance) likely to provide offensive value at that position in the majors any time soon. Maybe Blankenhorn emerges as kind of a late-bloomer?
  20. jkcarew
    True. So...would I be upset if they spent that on Wheeler? No, hard to be upset when it would make them better in 2020, and the only alternative was to do less or do nothing. Still, based on how much better Wheeler makes them for that cost, I wouldn't be very optimistic that that contract would end up being worth it. If nothing else it highlights what a horrible position the organization has carved for itself with regard to starting pitching. Bad drafts, bad development, bad luck, bad trades...or unwillingness to make trades. Now you're forced to consider making deals like this.
  21. jkcarew
    Giving 30 year-old Zack Wheeler 5-6 years and, say, somewhere between M$110 - 140? Meanwhile, well inside the window of that contract, you need to pay (or not) Buxton, Sano, Berrios, even Garver, plus some number of other starting pitchers through free agency. I mean, if we're going to change 60 years of franchise history and bet big on a short-term window...I'd wish for an opportunity to go way big and get more of a needle-mover than Zack Wheeler.
  22. jkcarew
    I'd guess Rijo has more future value than Raley? But you think you can sneak Rijo through, while you don't think you can sneak Raley through just based on age and stage of development. Problem is, I'm not sure why you care that much if Raley is claimed. I guess if you think he has non-zero trade value. I would have gone the other way. It's seems that teams will be more willing to reach for a guy like Rijo with the extra roster spot. Like protecting Blankenhorn. Infield corner bat with pop...not something we have a ton of in the system. Doesn't bother me that Jax wasn't protected. I'd guess he get's claimed, but wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't, either. Can't imagine anyone taking Javier. K'd in 34% of PA at low A last year at age 20. I guess we'll see how far teams will go in this age of tanking.
  23. jkcarew
    Many of the arguments for not trading Kepler...he's better than Rosario, he's got a team-friendly contract, he can play center field, he's coming off a career year...These are all reasons Kepler would provide more/better pitching in a trade. Having said that, given Buxton's history, and Rosario's inconsistency...you can only trade Kepler at this particular point in time if you LOVE you some Alex Kirilloff...and probably some Brent Rooker for that matter. I don't think you can love either quite that much...not yet, anyway.
  24. jkcarew
    Agree...don't think this will have much impact at all on average game length. The biggest opportunity, by far, is figuring out how 300+ pitches can be delivered in less time. Although, I'd like to see some thought/discussion...even trials...go toward figuring out how 9-inning games can average something less than 300 pitches, as well. But, that's a tougher solve...with a relatively small (vs time between pitches) payoff.
  25. jkcarew
    I acknowledge that the plan is well-reasoned...and 'responsible' in terms of long term flexibility. But, how does it make you better in 2020...for the window that's in front of them? You now have an unproven commodity in left field, and another at first base (or third base), while your pitching should be better, but not great by any means. Agree that you try to extend Buxton...only because he's the obvious buy-low opportunity. Would be shocked (and disturbed, in an odd way) if his camp caved and didn't make a bet on him becoming a legitimate star.
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