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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    To me, Cleveland remains dangerous in the short term...but I'm not convinced on the longer term. KC just still has such a long way to go with regard to offense. Detroit's a long, long way away. Then, there's the white sox. Chicago's positional core of Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert are already...arguably...better than the Twins oft-cited core of Polanco, Sano, Kepler, and Buxton. The average age of those 4 Sox players is 24. And it's not like the White Sox prospect cupboard has been completely depleted. It hasn't been. Guys like Andrew Vaughn, Nick Madrigal, and Michael Kopech could prove to be nice pieces. And guys like Grandal, Abreu, and Keuchel will remain good pieces to have around. Twins are more well-rounded and have more quality depth on the major-league roster. But it's easy to see that a couple of the Twins next wave of prospects need to be good, real good, for the Twins to be in favorable position to stay a step ahead of the Sox looking at the next 5 seasons or so.
  2. jkcarew
    His 2020 small sample is now about the same size as his 2019 small sample. This year, he's walking more, and striking out less, and giving up more home runs, resulting in a predictably higher FIP. None of that matters in the face of an unsustainably low 2020 BABiP against of .189. Dobnak is probably better than we THOUGHT he was...and probably not as good as we THINK he is. Taking that further...Twins staff BABiP against so far this year:...Romo, .118, Wisler .154, Maeda .162, Duffey .182, Dobnak .189, Hill .208 Clippard .231. As a staff, it's .254...something you can only see in small samples. So...let's get those bats going!
  3. jkcarew
    The Twins have a grand total of 262 PA against lefties this year. Garver had 23. Sano has had 19. But yes, the trend seems unfavorable when you factor in Buxton (who was good against lefties in 2019 when he played) and Garver seems further rather than closer to turning it around...and relying on Donaldson for anything significant during the 2020 regular season is questionable at this point, IMO. (While we're at it, worth mentioning that Donaldson was replacing CJ Cron in the batting order. In 2019, CJ Cron's splits against lefties were significantly better than Donaldson's.)
  4. jkcarew
    Above average? In this, his "break out" season, Buxton is sporting a .225 OBP...his career OBP...over 400 games now...is 288. Sano has never been even close to the 'guaranteed out' that Buxton has been. Sano's OBP sits at .276 this year and .336 career-wise. I do agree....that as currently performing through these first 25 games, Buxton has value because of the defense, although way less than most here give him credit for, and less than flawed defensive components for WAR gives him. But, still, more value that Sano has provided so far in 2020, which is zero. It's about 20 games played for each of these guys so far in 2020. But based on track records, I think it's fair to say, it's very unlikely either gets to true 'star' status at this point. On the other hand...if the big guy heats up...and Buxton becomes a true/consistent league-average hitter...
  5. jkcarew
    It's not bad luck. The thing that has kept him from being elite in the past is command. And if/when that regresses from spotty to bad, he'll be average, at best. Apparently, the 'if' is YES, and the 'when' is 2020.
  6. jkcarew
    He’s a valuable guy. I was happy when we got him...not that concerned about him when the scandal broke (other than the possibility of suspension). And not surprised that he’s playing well now.
  7. jkcarew
    We’re giving 1974 way too much credit here. The Twins were last in the AL in attendance in 1975 and 1976 as well. In 1977 when Carew flirted with .400 and the club challenged for the postseason, attendance was 11th (of) 14. That was the Zenith until Kirby Puckett showed up. A generation of Minnesota sports fans that had grown up on Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva and winning, turned their attention to the Vikings.
  8. jkcarew
    Enough with the “Buxton’s so good in center, he doesn’t have to hit”. It’s. Just. Not. True. He has to at least be within shouting distance of league average. The good news with Buxton is that the last couple of games he’s looked much better. Sano and Garver have looked lost all season. Sano’s probably the only player I’ve ever watched that can hit a ball 120 mph in an at-bat and still manage to finish the game conveying the impression that he’s completely lost at the plate. Arraez will be fine...those that think he’s going to develop power...I don’t see it. To me, he’ll have to rely on high contact rate and BABiP. And the latter has been letting him down. Donaldson, it’s all about his health, so I don’t know what to think with him.
  9. jkcarew
    Good teams play prospects when the prospects are better than the available veterans. Don’t see that being much different in 2020. That means the Twins won’t play prospects as long as health holds out, they’ve established the position they covet in the postseason tournament, or trades are made. Meanwhile, it might be fair to say that OUR center fielder “has a chance to be pretty good”. But, I’m not sure it’s fair to say that of the White Sox new center fielder. Luis Robert shows every indication that he left “pretty good” in the dust probably a couple of years ago. He’s currently batting leadoff for a very good batting order, and accumulating WAR at an astonishing rate.
  10. jkcarew
    Boy....I wonder how the rest of the AL teams trying to make the playoffs feel about how Shelton managed that game against his buddy? Wait...8 teams will make the playoffs, which is more than are actually trying. Never mind. If you take away last night’s outing...against the closest thing to a AAA lineup that you can see in a ‘regular season’ mlb game...Wisler had given up 6 base runners in 3.2 innings, so...I’m not sure I should be exited by Wisler, or horrified by Thorpe. Hate to say it, I’m leaning toward horrified by Thorpe. He had absolutely nothing.
  11. jkcarew
    So, 34 year old Josh Donaldson is going to have a better season than both 25 year old Yoan Moncada and 27 year old Jose Ramirez? I like what you’re thinking!! Although, I think I’d probably like what you’re drinking as well
  12. jkcarew
    Not really. The Twins finished 35-19 without Buxton down the stretch last year. That was about .650 baseball for almost as many games as the entire 2020 season will consist of.
  13. jkcarew
    Buxton? The part-time #9 hitter with the 87 career OPS+? The Twins finished 35-19 without him last year. I’d rather have him...maybe he could realize one (partial) season where he is actually the player so many here perceive him to be...pick up the slack if one of the guys who carried the team last year drops off this year. But for now, I bump Buxton for Garver.
  14. jkcarew
    The OBP was not good (again) last year and the SLG was boosted by an unsustainable doubles rate. He’s still got two things to prove...durability and offense. You’re either doubting or you’re hoping.
  15. jkcarew
    Are you suggesting it’s helped them in the past?
  16. jkcarew
    A reckoning was coming at the end of the current CBA, regardless. The pandemic starts bringing things to a head sooner. Is it possible that if an agreement isn't reached to play in 2020, at least we surface the ugliness early enough to salvage an at-risk 2022 season? Revenue sharing and salary cap, anybody? That's my glass half-full look at this depressing situation.
  17. jkcarew
    No matter how many express this opinion, it doesn't make it a fact for all teams...or even most teams. Teams will incur costs that are greater than a prorated per-game level (for a deal where owners have to pay prorated per-game major league salaries)...easily greater, since you have to factor admin, on-going minor league costs, servicing fixed assets, and rent/debt, etc. Meanwhile, owners will realize revenue that is less than a prorated per-game level, given little to no gate, concessions, parking, merchandise...clearly. In all of the major sports in America, the owners enjoy what amounts to a legal monopoly. But in modern times, the players unions amount to the same on the labor side. If the owners have significant money on the table, they can share it with the union, or get nothing (worse than nothing) if the union strikes, or foregoes all offers. The MLBPA is the most powerful of unions, and dominated by those at the far right-hand side of the salary bell curve. The playing field isn't nearly as sloped as suggested here. Also, Mark Cuban?? Really? An obsession with thrusting your name and likeness in front of any and every camera in sight 24x7, and inventing more and more new ways to draw attention to yourself at any cost says absolutely ZERO about your commitment to the game you represent. And much about your commitment to...yourself.
  18. jkcarew
    I think it's a good idea. It would feel a bit like an exhibition season anyway. Especially, if several big-time players opt out of playing. And I would suspect that several would do just that...in the unlikely event that a 50-game season was somehow accepted by the union.
  19. jkcarew
    The first round of the MLB draft is over-rated. Littered with busts...and if you throw out the very top, the first round is barely materially different in terms of producing future value than is the supplemental round or even the 2nd round. Having said that...if you have a very high first-round pick...it really does hurt to miss on those. Twins history with top 6 overall picks includes the likes of Adam Johnson, Willie Banks, Travis Lee (didn't sign), Dave McCarty (god), Bryan Oelkers, BJ Garbe, Nick Gordon, Ryan Mills, Tyler Jay....and Joe Mauer...and Byron Buxton. (Puckett was drafted 3rd overall in '82...but in a secondary January draft phase that no longer exists.) Adds to the argument that many here make...that it usually pays to be more aggressive trading high prospects for proven pieces while the prospect still has the high draft pick smell.
  20. jkcarew
    Sticking with the theme... RBI King: Luis Arraez Gold Glove: Miguel Sano Iron Man: Byron Buxton.
  21. jkcarew
    If you look at how the series played out, the only ‘one guy’ scenario would be a right-handed batter in game seven...it’s the only game the Twins lost that was really within range of winning with a reasonable one-man performance...unless you want to assume that a pitcher throws a shutout or near shutout at Dodger stadium. Joe Nossek batted second in game 7. Earl Battey batted 5th, behind Killebrew, who reached base twice against Koufax. I’d go with Donaldson or Garver or Sano batting behind Killebrew and coming up with a dinger and a double...that could have done it. If they had DH’s in 1965, the answer to this question would have been Cruz.
  22. jkcarew
    67, 69, 70...take your pick. Oliva, Killebrew, Carew, Tovar, Allison, Perry, Kaat, Boswell, Chance, Perranoski...Graig Nettles and Rick Dempsey can’t find at-bats...Blyleven breaks onto the seen.
  23. jkcarew
    “Behind Giolito, the Sox are relying on post-prime Keuchel and Gonzalez along with Reynaldo Lopez...” Michael Kopech is alive and quite well.
  24. jkcarew
    Using 2019 WAR will provide a bias for the AL teams and against the NL, and result in ranking the Twins and Cleveland higher than what might be warranted. Remember that the AL central teams last year got to play Detroit and Kansas City...two historically bad teams that weren’t even pretending to try to win...nearly 40 times...include an extremely inexperienced White Sox club, and you’re at nearly 60 games. Based on win pct outside the division, the 2019 AL central last year was easily the worse division in baseball, and one of the weakest divisions that MLB has seen in decades. St Louis, Milwaukee, and the Cubs all had better records against winning teams last year than did the Twins (or Cleveland). Maybe the 2020 additions put the Twins at the top of this list, but it’s much, much, more questionable than this article suggests.
  25. jkcarew
    But, if we're talking the 60's only...the comparison would/should be Aaron/Mathews vs Killebrew/Oliva. Oliva did more in the 60's than Carew did. Then it becomes Aaron vs Killebrew and Mathews vs Oliva. And for the 60's (but only for the 60's), that comparison actually could go the Twins way. I'll but Mincher at 1B Killebrew at 3B Or...you could put Rollins at 3B, Mincher at 1B, Killebrew at DH, Tovar in CF.
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