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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Sano, vs rest of lineup through May 5 (a small sample for everyone concerned)... Players with lower OBP than Sano: Garlick, Astudillo, Polanco, Kepler, Garver, Cave, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Rooker Players with HIGHER K-rate: Garver, Cave, Jeffers, Rooker Sano: 33.9% (against a 36.9% career average) Kirilloff this year: 29.5% Players with lower BABiP: None (accept Rooker) If Sano continues exactly what he’s been doing in 2021, and his BAPiP and HR% normalize even close to career norms, he’ll help the club.
  2. jkcarew
    Graterol is not a RP1. Graterol, much like Buxton through his injury-plagued years, is only good in theory. He’s been shut down (again), with Dave Roberts most recent comment being “we don’t know when he’ll pick up a ball and play catch”. In what little action he’s seen so far this year, he was ineffective. Based on where they’re at right now, easily the biggest needle movers would be May and Pressly. Baddoo has hit a major wall, although there may be plenty of time to regret him in the future.
  3. jkcarew
    He’ll play first base. This is the kind of article I’d expect from the Trib. It’s not that complicated. Kirilloff will go to the outfield, and Arraez will move around spelling people and play nearly every day. And sometimes, against certain righties, etc, Kirilloff will be at first base. Sano doesn’t replace Kirilloff...and he doesn’t replace Arraez. He replaces Jake Cave.
  4. jkcarew
    One thing not being talked about enough, IMO, is just how sneakily bad the STARTING pitching has become. Heading into tonight’s game, 3rd-worse in Baseball by bWAR. We’ve entered a pattern where starts are either bad or ‘good’, but WOEFULLY short. It’s the opposite of what we need...and what we thought we had going into the season.
  5. jkcarew
    Apparently, we’re watching two different Dobnak’s. The one I’m watching has progressively done worse each year as the league has seen more of him. The one I’m watching still has a K ratio well below league average and has given up 4 HR now in 14 innings...fly balls that go over the fence, not ground balls. He has atrocious numbers across the board and has amassed a bWAR of -.7 in only 14 innings, a pace that’s worse than Shoemakers -.9 in 23 innings. If that’s the standard, go with Duran right now. I’m sure he hasn’t been golfing the last several weeks. He won’t do materially worse than what Dobnak has been doing...and at least you’re developing a realistic potential top-end arm.
  6. jkcarew
    I don’t know what they should do about Shoemaker. But I know they shouldn’t give his slot to Dobnak. Dobnak?
  7. jkcarew
    And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how this Twins club is going to win. Don’t have to mash quite like this...but gotta mash and need to average more than one home run a game. And Buxton having a positively Puckett-like game. Not just the ‘what’...but the ‘when’. Club needed a spark. Good for him.
  8. jkcarew
    It so easy to manage when your club is hitting 307 home runs. Beginning last year, Rocco actually had to start the process of learning how to manage in the majors. It hasn’t really gone well. He’s gone from anything works to nothing works. Most of this predicament is on the players (and FO). But, Rocco...oh my!
  9. jkcarew
    If he can hang on, the 2023 Minnesota Twins might be a perfect fit.
  10. jkcarew
    Watching it, he absolutely meant to leave him in the game. Which would have been the right decision IMO. They’ll spin it. As will the local media. The majority of Twittersphere seems to agree with my take...(which causes me to doubt myself).
  11. jkcarew
    Time to think about postponing the development of Ober or Duran as a starter and add one of them to the bullpen? Really no other option other than sticking with Colume or bumping everyone up, which exposes guys we don’t want to be pitching in leverage. What a mess. But none of it matters if they don’t start hitting. You can’t expect to win games scoring 0-3 runs every single game. Even with a solid bullpen, you’re talking about...realistically...4-10 (instead of 2-12) in the last 14 games. Results would still be catastrophic. There is zero basis to expect that the Twins will score a run in any late inning, when they consistently fail to score in the 10th.
  12. jkcarew
    Starting pitching: thought it would be pretty good; it is Bullpen: thought it would be average; it isn't Defense: thought it would be above average; still optimistic (Simmons means a ton) Offense: was concerned off 2020 regression and bad spring; now more concerned Between the bullpen and the nature of this lineup (even when fully healthy)...this team HAS to hit home runs in bunches to get to the playoffs. Have two guys overperforming (Buxton, Cruz) in that regard...and the team still ranks near the bottom of the league in a stat that they absolutely MUST be at/near the top. Yikes!
  13. jkcarew
    I feel bad for the fans that attended that game. Like going to a Timberwolves game with the air conditioner stuck on 45 degrees, and the cheerleaders out with COVID. An absolute and total waste of money and time.
  14. jkcarew
    During the slump we’re already seeing how valuable Simmons is. Domino impact on the entire infield defense. And offensively he provides a rare skill for this lineup...he generally puts the ball in play. I already wish this was a 2-3 year deal.
  15. jkcarew
    I agree Adrianza was underrated. But, according to plan (Donaldson and Simmons healthy and available) that super-utility, in the lineup somewhere nearly every day role when to Arraez. Probably an upgrade overall from Adrianza.
  16. jkcarew
    It April 21st, Nick..and there’s good news.. Even though it may seem like it, this statement is no more preposterous today than it was back on March 22.
  17. jkcarew
    I’m think I’m with you on this one. My concern would be that my manager has more than one tool in the toolbox...in addition to the data which always speaks to the long run (and large data)...some willingness to experiment (and fail) with aggressiveness and learn which risks are worth taking on, and in which circumstances. The concern is that I have to squint really, really hard to see where Rocco is willing to do any such experimenting.
  18. jkcarew
    I guess it would depend on how he actually feels about his legs right now. But, yes...all things being equal, I’m sure he wasn’t thrilled coming out, and I’m positive the outcome pissed him off
  19. jkcarew
    Right. It served no strategic purpose. Donaldson is not known for being particularly slow, and Blankenhorn is not known for being particularly fast. Baldelli simply didn’t want Donaldson in a situation where he would be forced to kick it into the highest gear to win the game. He’s nothing if not consistent in his perpetual concern for tomorrow’s game and next month’s games. And maybe that’s smart...even though it’s extremely frustrating in the moment....especially when trying to snap out of a losing skid.
  20. jkcarew
    I don’t think Baldelli is good with in-game decisions. Position players or pitchers. It’s not a strength that he’s been able to demonstrate with any consistency so far. When the Twins have won games in bunches it’s been when the offense simply bludgeons teams into submission. Having said that, it’s become pretty obvious that this roster (at least how its played so far) doesn’t provide him with many good options. Alcala was probably the best option in place of Colome for the 10th...and he pitched yesterday and gave up a HR. Dobnak? And on the offensive side...there’s one or two regulars that consistently put balls in play where you could hit-and run, one guy that knows how to bunt, maybe two that can hit behind a runner...7 guys that strike out anywhere from often to constantly. The good news is this team isn’t going to lose many games...if any...where they hit like this. The starting pitching and defense are likely to settle down. Still, Rocco is kinda crippled in close games late, both from the standpoint of the bullpen and being able to manufacture runs offensively. If this club doesn’t hit HR’s in bunches, they’re not going to be good.
  21. jkcarew
    Twins took the high school kid with “protectable tools”. The Padres took the college guy that could play. (Padres traded Turner to Dodgers in a deal that netted Will Myers.)
  22. jkcarew
    Lot of patience here for a 6-7 team struggling offensively and expected to compete for a pennant. In general probably the right attitude but I’m not sure it needs to apply to Jeffers. Many here want Sano out of the lineup. Sano’s K’ing at a 34.6% rate and walking at over 23%. Jeffers 52.2% and 8.7%. He’s been overmatched. It’s a small sample, but it’s not unreasonable that a team in the Twins position might want to get him ever-day at-bats (C/1B/DH) in AAA for a bit.
  23. jkcarew
    IMO, all recent managers have had their strengths...even when the team has failed. And also weaknesses even when they were winning awards. Rocco’s no exception. Since the mid-80’s, the Twins have done overall better than most in the manager category. Rocco’s still learning IMO...and that’s probably the good news, as he’s already established some strengths.
  24. jkcarew
    You’re way more likely to win the game with the one-out at-bat than the two-out at bat. You can’t bat Jeffers there. Period. He’s K’ing in over 50% of his PA...that’s an actual statistic, not hyperbole...and he’s a rookie. If you’re not going to be aggressive with your bench in that one-out scenario...2nd and 3rd bottom of 8, one out, tie game, 5-game losing streak...when are you ever going to be? Even if they elect to walk Garver and you feel you HAVE to bat Riddle (lord knows why!) it’s still a one-out situation and Riddle has 800 career PA and MUCH lower K tendencies. At this point in time, even JT Riddle is an infinitely better option than Jeffers when you need a ball in play to win.
  25. jkcarew
    Arraez and Kepler take Baldelli off the hook for an atrociously managed game. Atrocious. If his excuse for sending Jeffers (and his 53% K-rate to the plate in the bottom of the 8th with one out and runners on 2nd and 3rd) was because he didn’t want to leave only one catcher available...then I’d use a different word: stupid. It’s the 8th inning and the extra-inning rule practically eliminates the possibility of anything close to a marathon. The things he’s good at have value. But he’s been pretty bad from the start on in-game management and doesn’t seem to be showing much improvement, IMO.
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