jkcarew

Yep…an offense built on hitting the ball over the dense as opposed to contact and base running is going to be less consistent even if producing the same amount of runs over the long haul. It’s where the entire league is, though. The Twins, unfortunately, are just an extreme example.

Yep. It’s because our ISO (basically HR and XBH ratios) are well into the top half of the league. Our method of being average doesn’t line up with the traditional ‘average’ lineup where everyone hits 230-300 with moderate K and HR numbers. 2023

The plan hasn’t been a disaster…Buxton has produced enough…and for the most part, MAT hasn’t been a total wash offensively. The problem is that a team as offensively challenged as the Twins can’t afford to sacrifice offense at ANY position where they have an alternative. And the alternatives at DH are multiplying as the 40-man gets healthier. While the alternatives at CF remain…Buxton.

Nice win

Yeah. Let’s go with “odd”.

Stewart found his glass slipper in the Nick of time. ….and is Rocco aware, do you think, that the new rules still allow pitching changes during an inning?

Something about the cumulative effect of baserunners and only being allowed 3 outs? It’s an interesting theory.

A crooked number without a HR??? Weird. But, I could get used to it I think.

Who would you suggest replacing his OPS+ 142 and wRC+ 141 with?

IMO, there’s a pattern on the site of not fully grasping who Joey Gallo is. He’s basically Miguel Sano…low BA, high K%, hits home runs in bunches. But two significant differences…Gallo can still manage to get on base some during the frequent/long dry spells with his superior control of the strike zone…and Gallo is a pretty useful defensive player. I get not liking the batter profile. But (recent slump not withstanding), so far we’re getting GOOD Joey Gallo, not bad. (OPS+ 142; wRC+ 141) If we’re looking for reasonable expectations for improvement, others are much higher on the list…Correa, Miranda, recent additions of Polanco and Kirilloff, Gordon, not playing MAT, etc

Gallo is slumping, yes. Performing below his statistical norms? No…not by a long shot. Also, his current 2023 OPS+ is 142 His career OPS+ is 110.

In the 2nd we got… HBP, BB, BB, pop-up, GDP And what we were all thinking/hoping for… HBP, BB, BB, SF, BB, FC, K; 2 runs scored without a hit. Right? We’re not expecting a hit, doesn’t even enter the mind. That’s where the expectations are. I keep saying, if the starting pitching stays like this, the club is going to win a lot of games. I’m starting to wonder if that’s true.

Huh? Gallo was 0-2 with 2 walks and 1 K. He reached base twice in a game where the entire club had 6 men reach. Meanwhile, his OBP is still among the highest on the team. His K% is about the same as Buxton’s.

Joe Ryan is in his second full season with the Twins and continues to evolve as a starting pitcher. He's been a strike-throwing machine this season, so let's dive into the changes he's made so far in 2023. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Joe Ryan is in his second full season with the Twins and continues to evolve as a starting pitcher. He's been a strike-throwing machine this season, so let's dive into the changes he's made so far in 2023. Joe Ryan was always an intriguing pitching prospect because he has never fit the profile of a typical pitcher. His unique fastball has been discussed at length since joining the Twins organization, and that's what made him so successful in the minors. He releases the ball at a three-quarters arm angle, which can mess with how batters view the expected pitch. One of Ryan's most important focuses was developing his secondary pitches because he wouldn't reach his ceiling throwing fastballs over 60% of the time. Here's a look at his early season changes in 2023. Some of Ryan's early season success is tied to the high strike rate he has been able to accumulate in the season's first month. Inside Edge pointed out that he has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 78% of opposing batters this season. For reference, the league average is 65%. He has been ahead or even in the count in 111 out of 143 plate appearances this year (78%). Ryan is holding batters to a .342 SLG when he is ahead in the count with 27 strikeouts in 64 at-bats. One reason for Ryan's early season success has been a dramatic change in his pitch mix. During the 2022 season, he threw his fastball over 60% of the time while also relying on his slider (17.8%), changeup (12.1%), curveball (7.2%), and sweeper (2.8%). In 2023, he's using his fastball less than 60% of the time for the first time in his career, and his slider usage has dropped to 5.5%. His most significant increase in pitch usage has been a pitch that Baseball Savant categorizes as a split-finger (27.5%) and a sweeper (9.2%). His slider is getting hit the hardest (.625 SLG), up 85 points compared to last season. He has held batters to a .170 SLG or lower against his split-finger and sweeper. Seven of his eight extra-base hits have come against his fastball, but that is expected with how regularly he throws the pitch. Last season, his fastball was the only pitch with a negative run value for the season (-21 runs), and that total ranked among baseball's best. During the 2023 season, his fastball (-6 runs) and splitter (-5 runs) are both providing negative run value. It will be interesting to track those pitches throughout the season since he currently throws them over 85% of the time. Ryan's improvements this year have helped him post an extreme chase rate that will be tough to maintain for an entire season. Last year, his chase rate ranked in the 33rd percentile among MLB pitchers. To begin 2023, his chase rate ranks in the 96th percentile. There is some hope that his new pitching repertoire will help him continue to get batters to chase pitches, but there will also likely be some regression to his career mark. Unfortunately, not everything is positive for Ryan. He is giving up a lot of hard contact with a Hard Hit % that ranks in the 23rd percentile. He does a tremendous job at hitting his spots but has below-league-average velocity. Hitters can make solid contact on the occasions when his location fails to be perfect. He has given up a lot of ground balls this season, which puts extra pressure on the defense. The Twins' infield defense has ranked poorly to start the season, and he will likely see a few more ground balls find holes behind him in the coming weeks. What have been your impressions of Joe Ryan so far this season? Can he continue to pitch this well? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Continue not to see the fascination with Solano. Batting cleanup?? There. I’ve done my part. He is now free to make me look like an idiot, and win the game for us.

Not allowing the opposition to score remains a foolproof plan for winning. But, I’d like to see signs of a back-up plan.

Sneaky contributing factor… New schedule has fewer games played within the divisions. For the ALC, that means the number of games for which they break even is smaller…and the number of games where teams outside the division demolish the ALC teams is greater.

Ah…but it is possible!… One team has a perfect game going into the 10th inning of a scoreless game. In the 10th inning, the team that hasn’t had a batter reach base, has their first batter hit a HR. The perfect game is broken up by a 2-run homer. (Edit: just saw where you had already acknowledged this. Sorry.)

He’s currently our best hitting outfielder. And that’s part of the problem. Max is being Max…he’s fine. Even seems like he’s edging his OBP with the walks closer to what you’d want in a lead off hitter. But neither him being the best hitter in the outfield…or him being the lead off hitter are his fault. He’s not one of the clubs current problems.

Gallo’s OBP is 342. His SLG is 619. That makes him, currently, the best offensive player on the team. Those that are going to want Gallo’s BA to be significantly above 200 are going to be disappointed. He is, and always will be, a three true outcome guy. Absolutely, there’s a fine line with his ilk…but SO FAR…there’s no way any of us could have hoped for a better version of Gallo than what we’ve gotten…and yes, I’ll add another SO FAR.

Small sample…maybe anecdotal is the right term…seems to me that he’s been hurt in a couple of key situations by throwing the same pitch (sweeper),…without exaggeration…5-6 times consecutively during an at-bat. It’s a nice pitch. It’s not THAT good. Not yet anyway.

Don’t think I’d throw Kepler and Gallo in with Correa and Miranda right now. The first objective is to not make outs. And Gallo and Kepler are doing that better than almost everyone else on the team…not that that that is a terribly high bar right now…but still. History (a lot of history) says Correa will be fine. Miranda is a big worry, IMO.

3 highest OBP among regular players… Buxton (WAY above career norms), Gallo, Kepler I don’t want to say Kepler is ‘good’ or a needle-mover necessarily…but I don’t think he’s a problem either.

Here are my 5 scenarios for playing time opening up for Kirilloff… 1. The wrist is ready. 2. The wrist is ready 3. The wrist is ready 4. The wrist is ready 5. The wrist is ready

I was thinking about this after yesterday’s game… The bullpen has been ‘leaky’. Even today…but had some good fortune today. And, compared to previous years, that’s probably baby steps. Not as many complete implosions this year (so far), but lots of leaking.