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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Ah, there it is. The annual ‘this will be the year Kepler’s BABIP normalizes’ article. To be fair, this is the first in this early spring tradition that does more than hint that the issue is not really bad luck and shifts, but instead, Kepler’s approach and swing. Which it 100% is. His offensive value has been anchored to how often the fly balls to right field leave the park. Period. And if the 2021 ball is as ‘different’ from the 2019 ball as feared (by batters)...I’m not holding my breath on a great year from Kepler. Can he change his approach at age 28? Maybe. He may need to.
  2. jkcarew
    It’s a good question as we saw time and again how Rocco wanted the left-handed bat in the 4 hole...almost no matter how Rosario was swinging it. Still, Buxton is not an option, even if he ran like Usain Bolt. It’s taken 1500 PA to establish his .289 career OBP (it actually went further in the wrong direction in 2021). How many additional PA with different outcomes would it take for Baldelli to reconsider? A lot...like hundreds, I’m guessing. Depending upon who’s playing (which catcher and whether Arraez is in the lineup and for whom)... Right handed starter: Arraez or Kepler with Arraez if they’re both in the lineup. (Polanco’s an option, as well) Lefty: Garver or Josh Donaldson (or Arraez) How Kirilloff profiles at the major league level (and how soon) will go a long way in deciding what Rocco can do with Kepler.
  3. jkcarew
    I’d be surprised if Gordon ever spends more than one ‘experimental’ season on a MLB active roster...and with a rebuilding team. Any scenario that has the Twins having to rely on him for a Major League role in 2021 is, basically, disaster. Anything more from Gordon would start with better health, and include, shall we say, better...”hunger” (which is probably the biggest difference between Dozier and Gordon). I like the Blankenhorn comp...seems about a perfect parallel. Also Rooker in a scenario where he is able to cut down on the swing-and-miss and suddenly leave us with big doses of that super hard contact.
  4. jkcarew
    I mean, it’s not likely simply because even among those that start strong and show the potential (as Arraez has), only about one in a hundred are going to end up developing near the level Carew/Gwynn achieved. Could happen of course. I think Arraez is more limited with his lack of high end speed. Also, with his swing, it’s hard to see him ever getting to 10-15 HR in a season. Still, I have no problem with where Arraez is on this list. I think his AVE/OBP could be sustainably high enough to be valuable...and it’s arguable that it’s more valuable to this club than is Jeffers’ SLG, just based on scarcity.
  5. jkcarew
    Yikes! Pretty thin in terms of accomplishment these days. Under 25 lists are always swayed to potential relative to accomplishment (in MLB terms), but this is fairly extreme. Kinda highlights that the Twins are not really a young team any more. Need the next wave to start impacting soon.
  6. jkcarew
    Open it up, Governor Walz!,
  7. jkcarew
    Why is doing something within the rules...rules agreed to by the players union...”unethical”. It’s either good for the club in the long term or it’s not. Nothing more, nothing less. The notion that this is any more “unethical” than a player deciding to leave teammates and an organization that have treated him well for any amount of additional money...well, it’s not a terribly objective stance. One is try to maximize long term value to the club...in other words, do their job. The other is doing the best for himself and his family. Nothing unethical about either regardless of whether we like the rule or the outcomes.
  8. jkcarew
    You expected to see Celestino last season? As an emergency to temporarily avoid other undesirable player/roster moves, I guess...(as they had to do with Polanco in 2014 and 2015). But Polanco then, like Celestino now, was only on the 40-man due to the ridiculous rule-5 requirements as it relates to promising international signees. Cave and Kepler in center (whether we like it or not)...as has been the case; numerous options in the corners; road trip to Wichita if we want to see Celestino in the summer.
  9. jkcarew
    Merrifield’s been a better player than Max. But not by a lot, and they’re at the age where it’s possible, even likely, that Max hasn’t peaked...while Merrifield is just getting to the flip side of that. Tough call.
  10. jkcarew
    I like it. If you squint just a bit when you look at Walker and imagine a slightly lower walk rate and a little better durability...you have a really nice #3. Doesn’t answer the ‘true ace’ prayer, but still.
  11. jkcarew
    Not thinking it will do anything to maintain his differentiating range in CF as he approaches age 30 either. About the last guy on the team that I thought “getting in better shape” was a key needed to unlock improvement. But then again, who knows. It’s almost spring time.
  12. jkcarew
    Way too high. Let’s face it, if Cavaco had been drafted at the bottom of the first round or in the second round somewhere (where consensus projected him to go weeks ahead of the draft), he’d be well outside the top 10. Doesn’t matter if you’re drafted #13 overall, or if you’re raw, or if you’re ‘adjusting’, or if you just turned 18: when you come in with questions on the hit tool and you’re completely overwhelmed by instructional league pitching, even in a short timeframe, to the extent that Cavaco was...you’re a lottery ticket. A very shiny one perhaps, but a lottery ticket.
  13. jkcarew
    Agreed. Good depth/numbers regarding quality it seems...but not balanced across positions. I guess that’s where making the right trades...at the right time...come into play. Certainly a unique exercise in ranking coming off a cancelled season. I’d agree with Javier’s slide and the flip at the top. Cavaco too high.
  14. jkcarew
    Yeah. So many red flags. The .577 SLG with the .267 OBP...enabled by a ridiculously high HR/FB ratio in a short sample. He’s done lots of nice things in short samples, but the career 91 OPS+ speaks for itself. Hear he’s coming into camp with significantly more muscle. Interesting. If he loses even a step in range, the hitting deficiencies are magnified.
  15. jkcarew
    And yet, they rank Lewis high (relative to the other services). The only reasonable conclusion can be that they see Lewis as the next incarnation of Ozzie Smith in the middle of the infield, because if they don’t like Kirilloff’s swing... I guess we should consider ourselves lucky if they’ve got both right...or both wrong.
  16. jkcarew
    I’m encouraged that many here feel Buxton has ‘arrived’ offensively. Still, can’t say I’m convinced. Finished last year a complete mess...and posted in the shortened season a completely unsustainable HR/FB. IMO, both Robert and Buxton have much proving yet to do. But one of them will start the season at age 23. The other at 27.
  17. jkcarew
    I would like Kirilloff to be the opening day left fielder. But I understand why that might not happen from a business standpoint. I have no issues with the FO taking advantage of rule that was collectively bargained with the players. Still, it’s probably fair to say there is risk with either side of that decision for the FO.
  18. jkcarew
    Issues hitting, then a pandemic, and now injuries. So, we’ll likely not see this #1 overall pick until 2023... SIX years after having drafted him...and with the possibility that his best and most reliable tool (speed) will already be in decline. Sigh.
  19. jkcarew
    #1 overall, turns 22 in 3 months, will spend next season rehabbing and learning to hit consistently (hopefully). Playing for Twins in 2023 as he turns 24? Sucks for him even more than it sucks for us.
  20. jkcarew
    “Semien would be a significant - albeit still below average - upgrade over Polanco defensively while also being a solid upgrade offensively; his OPS is .002 points higher than Polanco’s since 2017...” Huh? .002 of OPS over 4 seasons is a ‘solid upgrade’ offensively?...and when that advantage was built completely on the back of exactly ONE of those 4 seasons? The advantage of Semien over Polanco is completely on the defensive side of things.
  21. jkcarew
    If the Twins don’t want Polanco to be their every-day SS, then they should be trading Polanco or Lewis (or Arraez). The instant the Twins acquire one of the new SS options flung around in these threads, at least one of those three immediately loses significant value.
  22. jkcarew
    If all of this talk about the Twins wanting a SS are true...and I’m not convinced they are true...then that says the Twins are very far down the path of giving up on Lewis as an every-day major league shortstop. There’s no reason to expect that Lewis...right now...would be materially worse offensively than Baez or Semien were in 2020, or Semien has been every year other than 2019. This will be Lewis’s age 22 season. He was a #1 overall pick. Not a good look to be making significant moves for middle infielders as if he didn’t exist. Unless, of course, the Twins consider him insufficient defensively to fill a full-time super-utility role...or already consider him an outfielder.
  23. jkcarew
    How long do you wait for a player that was drafted #1 overall (Lewis). The presumption is that he had the resources, attention, and reps in 2020 to continue his development. This will be his age 22 year. Bring him up or trade him for pitching.
  24. jkcarew
    If no Cruz, then two right-handed catchers works IF at least one hits well enough to DH against lefties. I’m not there really with Jeffers (yet) or Garver (anymore)...doesn’t mean the Twins aren’t. A lot of talk on this and other threads recently about corner outfielders and middle infielders. Don’t get it. If none of Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff in their age 22, 23, and 23 seasons are ready...they need to be traded, like yesterday. Even big-market contending teams turn their rosters to accommodate prospects...if they believe they’re good. Having said that, I like the idea of Ozuna’s right-handed bat in left field. But he will be very expensive in terms of years. Still, in theory, it could justify packaging Kirilloff or Larnach in a deal for controllable pitching. I expect relievers and a starter in FA. And a move to the next wave of prospects at corner OF/DH/Catcher/super-utility...and to some extent reliever...maybe even starter.
  25. jkcarew
    Lewis was a first overall draft pick. He’ll be 22 rears old for the bulk of the upcoming season which is the age at which most high-end players make their debuts (if not earlier). And you trade him now for one year of a player that plays the same position he plays? Makes sense in one scenario and one scenario only...you’ve concluded that Lewis isn’t going to be good.
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