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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Part of the puzzle has to be getting more innings from starters. Averaging a shade more than 4.2 per start. Even for this ridiculous era, that’s low. Right now, Rocco and the FO are pretending that you can protect your starters and hide bullpen arms at the same time. No, you can’t. Maybe for a game or two, or a series. But not over the coarse of a month, let alone a full season.
  2. jkcarew
    Run? Gifted epic back-to-back meltdowns by the opposition’s bullpen, Cleveland is now 4-6 in their last ten. I think they can, and will, sustain that. I know the bar for ‘run’ is low in this division, but I think Chicago remains the most likely team to eventually blow by the Twins if the Twins remained stuck in this two steps forward, two steps back thing. More than half the season yet to play.
  3. jkcarew
    He’s opting out. The only way he doesn’t is if he’s chronically injured or plays very poorly. Nothing has changed there. If the market is relatively soft, the Twins might have a chance. Otherwise he walks. I believe they’d give Lewis a shot. I wouldn’t consider going with an overall #1 draft pick, who seems to be ready “starting over”…albeit, somewhat of a risk given injury history.
  4. jkcarew
    This is absolutely a one-year deal (pending a horrible year and/or injury). And that’s fine…. One, He never signs this deal without the opt-out…and one year of Correa is way better than the alternatives. Two, if the team fails in 2022, he’ll bring a good haul at the deadline. It’s a win for the Twins in almost any scenario…other than chronic /catastrophic injuries. It’s the Sanchez thing that has me scratching my head. He really doesn’t function behind the plate…and how many right-swinging, poor contact, power guys that are defensive liabilities does one team need?
  5. jkcarew
    For context, Varland is over one year older than the average competition in his Low-A league…while Balazovic is nearly 3 years younger than his average AA competition. Still, no way to look at Balazovic’s numbers this year and conclude anything other than that he struggled significantly. For those that want the FO to push the top prospects…this is what you’re going to get more often than not. I don’t think it’s anything to be too worried about…but it seems clear he’s not ‘close’.
  6. jkcarew
    Still, he’s 2nd on the team in RBI. A few more than Donaldson, in the same number of PA, and with 60+ more K’s. The thing with all guys with ridiculous power…they are ALWAYS in an RBI situation.
  7. jkcarew
    Yes, Escobar’s had a great year. Yes, he’s a good guy to have around. But he’s not going to be anyone’s every day shortstop, no matter what defensive metrics might (erroneously) say.
  8. jkcarew
    Just one question… Do the Yankees need Kepler to take Aaron Judge’s spot in the lineup or Joey Gallo’s?…or Giancarlo Stanton’s or Luke Voit’s or DJ LeMahieu’s, or maybe the returning Aaron Hick’s?? Can’t think of a less motivated team, maybe ever, to go after a 100-105 ish OPS+ corner outfielder that can sorta spot in center and maybe possibly play first or DH. The Yankees interest in Twins (position players with the MLB club) probably begins with Buxton and ends with Donaldson…both risks. Buxton for the possibilities, and Donaldson because they’re ‘weak’ at 3rd. Maybe Arraez to bolster the 3B rotation and utility role.
  9. jkcarew
    Not buying this. Escobar couldn’t take the shortstop job from Polanco when Escobar was 27-28…he’s certainly not going to do it at 33. Here are the SS’s that have played the position for Escobar’s teams in the last three years…Nick Ahmed and Willie Adames. Adames is currently injured, and the Brewers responded by moving Luis Arias back over to short. Zero games for Escobar at short for the Brewers despite the injuries…but 9 at first base.
  10. jkcarew
    I think it’s fair to say Balazovic has found AA ball this year…challenging. Wouldn’t be shocked if that’s where he starts next year.
  11. jkcarew
    One of the sneakiest, under-the-radar, silver linings of 2021 has been what Celestino has done in AAA this season.
  12. jkcarew
    I don’t quite get the angst over Simmons. The contract was well worth plugging a defensive whole at SS for a team that figured to mash and figured to contend. And it was a 1-year contract for a reason. The Twins thought they had an answer for 2022. Meanwhile, the defensive production has been about what was expected. The offense? wRC+ of 58 with a 250 BABiP. In 2019 it was 79 with a 277 BABiP. (Inflated BABiP in small sample last year.) I mean the difference just isn’t that material for the club that the Twins were supposed to be. Those that let things like his anti-vax stance color their opinion…well, that’s their prerogative. I don’t agree with Simmons decision in a team sport scenario, but it had zero impact on the season. Also, some here are super frustrated that he continues to play. It is frustrating. But it’s not Simmons fault.
  13. jkcarew
    Fwiw, not sure ‘most’ hold WAR as THE number, given how it can be significantly influenced by questionable and often just plain nonsensical defensive metrics. But, certainly not BA. Maybe OPS, wRC+…maybe WAR, but certainly not BA.
  14. jkcarew
    Not even close. And as has been mentioned…not even that close to the worse this year.
  15. jkcarew
    It’s an actual risk in the real world where resource constraints exist. It’s not a risk in an academic/theoretical sense if you assume no constraints on resources. In other words, it is, in fact, risky for the Twins. (Again, doesn’t mean it can never be justified.) Meanwhile, it’s not risky for the Dodgers and the Yankees. For them, it’s smart, because when it does go wrong…and it can go wrong…they can simply spend good money after bad to get themselves out of the whole.
  16. jkcarew
    Great job…lots of work and interesting numbers. Still, there’s great risk in mid-market teams extending huge long-term deals. Doesn’t mean it should never be done, but there’s huge risk. It’s called opportunity cost. What if you’re wrong?…and even if you’re right, you create other issues which can materialize sometimes sooner rather than later. We can pretend the Twins (and most other teams) can or ‘should’ look at it as in this analysis. But in fact only 2 or 3 teams can operate in this kind of a vacuum where the top guys can be targeted on a consistent basis.
  17. jkcarew
    You don’t mean Keon Broxton, do you? The Keon Broxton that spent all season proving that he can’t hit AAA pitching? The Keon Broxton that was released by the Saints and is now 0 for 4 with a walk and 3 K’s on Milwaukee’s rookie league team?
  18. jkcarew
    The issue with Dobnak is not how he’s been used or injuries…it’s that he’s eminently hittable. The only reasons to give him more chances are his age and the desperate pitching situation. Even the Twins can afford to eat the guaranteed portion of that contract. And I expect they will if Dobnak doesn’t turn a corner next year.
  19. jkcarew
    How about we look at OBP (if you refuse to consider OPS)…the rate at which players get on base as opposed to making outs? How does Austudillo look now?
  20. jkcarew
    Interesting and thoughtful take.
  21. jkcarew
    I didn’t want to ‘like’ this…but, yeah. He wasn’t good. You’d think there would have been one guy slightly more worthy of garnering honorable mention.
  22. jkcarew
    High leverage?? Were there six guys on base when Gordon batted? Even if there had been a ‘high leverage’ point in this game (there wasn’t)…it still wouldn’t have been actual high leverage because the games absolutely don’t matter at this point. And then there’s this….why WOULD you keep your best defensive player in a game like this? I’ve got some issues with Rocco, but not at all for something like this under these circumstances. Not even close.
  23. jkcarew
    We agree!
  24. jkcarew
    My only worry is that Sawer Gipson-Long and Simeon Woods-Richardson will consume a total of 3 lines on the 40-man roster.
  25. jkcarew
    Thanks for this. Overall, it doesn’t seem that he’s particularly close…or at least not particularly close to being effective at the major league level given his secondary pitches are such works-in-progress.
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