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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I am concerned with the offense. On the other hand (going into today)... Polanco’s BABiP: 147...he’s likely to turn back into 2018 Polanco at some point. Garver’s BABiP: 143 Sano’s BABiP: 111...meanwhile, his SO% is exactly the same as 2019, BB% higher Twins OPS is 3rd overall in the AL; they lead the AL in OBP (you read that correctly) Twins team SO% is exactly league average and their BB% is better than league ave. It warps the mind, but this is what baseball looks like now. What the Twins haven’t done is make the big pitch, or the big play, or the big hit to turn close games. That will probably turn at some point.
  2. jkcarew
    I mean, yes, I’d drop Polanco in the order, specifically as it relates to Arraez’s position. I was concerned with how many of these guys were swinging the bat this spring, and some of that has carried over. On the other hand...(doesn’t include today’s 14 innings)... Polanco’s BABiP: 147...he’s likely to turn back into 2018 Polanco at some point. Garver’s BABiP: 143 Sano’s BABiP: 111...meanwhile, his SO% is exactly the same as 2019, BB% higher Twins OPS is 3rd overall in the AL; they lead the AL in OBP (you read that correctly) Twins team SO% is exactly league average and their BB% is better than league ave. It warps the mind, but this is what baseball looks like now. What the Twins haven’t done is make the big pitch, or the big play, or the big hit. That will probably turn at some point.
  3. jkcarew
    We’re making this conclusion based on 3 appearances? Really, it’s 2 normal appearances, because his first was in the make-believe 10th inning scenario where he faced two batters and gave up a single and a ground ball to second. (I do think it strange to give a low K% guy like Dobnak the first extra inning.) Still, in both of the two normal outings, he completely shut down the opposition for his first two innings and then was poor (to very poor) in his third inning of work. It’s seems kinda hard given that small set of outcomes to conclude he’s likely to be more effective as a starter. How about instead we limit him to no more than two innings in tight games, and avoid using him (or defer his use) in extra inning scenarios?
  4. jkcarew
    It’s nice to have that 8-man bullpen for 7-inning games, though...right? Our top two starters did their best to make this look rational. But it isn’t. It’s a joke and an embarrassment to the 150 years of Major League Baseball that preceded this.
  5. jkcarew
    As a Sano fan, I think patience is warranted. He comes across as a great teammate who really enjoys the game and the success of his teammates. And when things turn, the power can win games all by itself. But I have to admit that even I get dejected with the slow overall progress. I wish the concept of letting the ball get deep and going the other way would finally click at some point. It won’t cut down on the HR rate (much) as he’s so powerful he can reach any fence in any park...and it would help the K’s and the BA so so much. It’s exactly what Cruz does. I also worry that he’s starting to get frustrated himself. The happy-go-lucky, everything’s great, body language that he’s pretty much always been able to maintain seems to be cracking a bit. That would be a shame because one of the best parts about watching Sano is that he always seemed to be having so much fun out there almost no matter what.
  6. jkcarew
    One of those games where Berrios had no idea where the ball was going. It works against a lineup like Seattle’s...not against top-end experienced lineups. Still fun to watch him, works fast and never afraid to throw the ball over the heart of the plate (or try to) when the situation is calling for that.
  7. jkcarew
    Theoretically, Buxton. Theoretically. When he’s playing AND hitting, there’s no way a starting pitcher can be that valuable. Having said that, I’m not yet a believer in his ability to play 140 games a season. I’ve remained a skeptic regarding his bat, as well, but I’m seriously rethinking that position.
  8. jkcarew
    Dominate the opener, then lose a game you should have won, then win a game you should have lost. That’ll do.
  9. jkcarew
    Impressive pitching pretty much the entire series. Very encouraging.
  10. jkcarew
    Before the opener, I would have said a postseason series win. But now I feel like it needs to be...consistently know what base you should be throwing to if the ball is hit to you. And winning a postseason series.
  11. jkcarew
    Kinda missing the point by citing Rooker’s ST slash line by itself. It’s the K’s...which are not as beholden to the mitigating circumstances of sss as are the other factors going into the slash line. Rooker struck out in 48% of ST PA’s. 48%. He made Sano, who had an absolutely atrocious spring offensively, look like Wee Willie Kepler. Rooker started out decent, and then was pretty much a train wreck in appearances over the last 2-3 weeks. As someone who was likely to platoon quite a bit (and on the short end of the platoon), I’d much, much rather see Rooker iron out some issues as an every-day player at AAA. He’ll be back when/if he irons things out.
  12. jkcarew
    I do think the quality of depth is in a good spot. In fact, I’m getting a high-floor/low-ceiling vibe for this club. Hope I’m wrong on the ceiling part, but I’m having a hard time figuring out where the offensive resurgence is going to come from. One final elite/healthy year from Donaldson? Meanwhile though...we continue to perpetuate the myth that certain players from the 2019 Red Wings had ‘monster’ years. Context. Zander Wiel posted a 834 OPS. Entire teams matched that in the 2019 IL. Rochester posted 810 as a team. Jaylin Davis posted a 1112 in a partial season. Jake Cave a 984, Brent Rooker a 933, Tomas Telis a 854. Wiel, someone who apparently can only play 1B/DH, was ‘decent’, not ‘monster’.
  13. jkcarew
    The analytics say it’s more important to be above average offensively than above average defensively...and that ethos has strengthened as balls-in-play have continued to decline. So, we can say it’s ‘flexibility’ or a ‘better/new’ type of athlete, but I don’t think that’s the case at all...and that take doesn’t pass the eye-test, either. If anything, today’s players are much slower (and bigger/stronger) on average than players of 30 years ago. Instead, IMO, it’s simply a growing trend, an inevitable trend given the modern game, to put the organization’s 9 best available hitters in the lineup as often as possible, while making the considerable defensive compromises necessary to make that happen. Defense-first players are dinosaurs, only existing at C, SS, and CF...rapidly approaching extinction at CF, and critical habitat showing signs of stress at SS and C. Great defensive players will continue to come along, but more and more as opportunistic occurrences and less and less structurally (i.e., how players are developed, evaluated, and promoted). The bias for offense above defense is greater now than for any previous era.
  14. jkcarew
    Rooker was so upset upon being notified of this injustice, that he went right out there and posted three more K’s in 3 AB...to bring his ST K% to a tick over 46%. He should demand a trade.
  15. jkcarew
    “Flexibility” is simply a product of developing a top-end starter once every blue moon, (and refusing to play anywhere near the top end of starting pitching free agency). Still, it’s something to be thankful for in these uncertain times. But for the grace of God, our favorite club could be saddled with the perennial dilemmas faced by Cleveland or Tampa Bay of whether to pay or trade for can’t-miss blue-chip prospects, their growing stable of all-star starting pitchers.
  16. jkcarew
    If the Twins overall starting isn’t a good notch better than the White Sox, I think it’s going to be hard to win the Central for the Twins. Last year the Sox lineup was better than the Twins, but their starting pitching wasn’t close. Jimenez hurts the Sox, for sure, but it’s not like the Twins lineup has added offense. I think the thing I feel best about relative to Chicago as a Twins fan is Larussa. Could work out, I suppose. I’m sure he hasn’t forgotten how to manage a game. Still, it seems that there’s the real potential that that blows up and maybe sooner than later?
  17. jkcarew
    It is weird, though, that they didn’t give either even one start this spring (so far). I suppose they would have, at least for Kopech one would think, in a ‘normal’ ST with the higher number of games (split-squads, etc)
  18. jkcarew
    It seems a bit questionable to lump Simmons and Buxton together as ‘high usage’. Any SS is in an entire different category of usage than any CF, including Buxton. That’s still true, even in today’s game. IMO, Buxton is just Buxton. Center Field didn’t do much to create material injury issues for Puckett or Hunter who both played the position aggressively (and in the case of Hunter, covered a ton of ground). Call me skeptical regarding how much this is moving the needle regarding the predictability of injuries. Worth a try, I guess...if someone’s going to pay for it.
  19. jkcarew
    Luckily, Simmons and Buxton have been able to mitigate this throughout their careers by employing low and really low respective OBP’s
  20. jkcarew
    It’s hard to argue that there’s not more work for him to do...both in absolute terms and relative to Rooker. He’s still likely to surpass Rooker, but he shouldn’t be riding the pine in the majors in the meantime.
  21. jkcarew
    But, spin rate? What am I missing here? Has it been scientifically proven that a spin rate exceeding X cannot be achieved without a foreign substance...or more than Y standard deviations from the mean is impossible? Exactly what is X and Y then? Or is the league at such a loss for ways to improve balls-in-play, that they’ve simply outlawing really really good pitches? There’s a person monitoring a laptop in the press-box and wired to the umpire. And we add to the lexicon of the game: in addition to “Ball two, outside!”, we can add “Ball two, unfair!”
  22. jkcarew
    Every time Max hits the ball to the left of center, it’s a miss-hit, an accident. It happens, but it’s usually something accidentally sliced (which can work), or a pitch he was late on and hits lazily in the air. At this point it just is what it is, because it’s the same every year. The ball has to go over the fence at a very healthy rate when he hits it, or his value will be very limited.
  23. jkcarew
    You don’t think Morris ever had 11-game starting stretches as or more dominant than Maeda just had in 2020? You’d be wrong. Not with the Twins...but with Detroit. Multiple times. (And to be fair to Morris, the 66.2 innings Maeda pitched in 2020 would only be the equivalent of 8 or 9 Morris starts.) Also pretty disingenuous to suggest Morris was ‘average’ (or worse) in the post season when his numbers are skewed by a disastrous age 37 campaign....a career stage Maeda will have to go a ways to even have a chance to match. Morris was 7–4 in the postseason and across the 7 wins he was required to AVERAGE 8.2 innings per start. 8 and 2/3 average start across the 7 wins. No opportunity to duck the meat of the batting order the 3rd time through...or the 4th. So, yeah...you should have left it at ‘it’s oranges to orangutans’. In the meantime, I’m thinking Maeda is going to be very good in 2021...and am still hoping he can help Berrios somehow in Jose’s ongoing quest to attain elite command, because Maeda certainly has it.
  24. jkcarew
    If by “fun” you mean hard to take seriously...I’m with you.
  25. jkcarew
    Authors may need to challenge themselves to be a bit more objective in this series. As a club, the White Sox lineup was significantly better offensively than the Twins was last year. Significantly. And they have more, not fewer, key young guys with additional upside. Do the Twins have relative advantages among lineup players? Yes....and maybe. But, it’s not even remotely as one-sided as suggested by the author. I shudder to think of the upcoming pitching comparison...where the Twins were actually way better than Chicago last year, and still figure to have an advantage.
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