jkcarew

It is weird, though, that they didn’t give either even one start this spring (so far). I suppose they would have, at least for Kopech one would think, in a ‘normal’ ST with the higher number of games (split-squads, etc)

It seems a bit questionable to lump Simmons and Buxton together as ‘high usage’. Any SS is in an entire different category of usage than any CF, including Buxton. That’s still true, even in today’s game. IMO, Buxton is just Buxton. Center Field didn’t do much to create material injury issues for Puckett or Hunter who both played the position aggressively (and in the case of Hunter, covered a ton of ground). Call me skeptical regarding how much this is moving the needle regarding the predictability of injuries. Worth a try, I guess...if someone’s going to pay for it.

Luckily, Simmons and Buxton have been able to mitigate this throughout their careers by employing low and really low respective OBP’s

It’s hard to argue that there’s not more work for him to do...both in absolute terms and relative to Rooker. He’s still likely to surpass Rooker, but he shouldn’t be riding the pine in the majors in the meantime.

But, spin rate? What am I missing here? Has it been scientifically proven that a spin rate exceeding X cannot be achieved without a foreign substance...or more than Y standard deviations from the mean is impossible? Exactly what is X and Y then? Or is the league at such a loss for ways to improve balls-in-play, that they’ve simply outlawing really really good pitches? There’s a person monitoring a laptop in the press-box and wired to the umpire. And we add to the lexicon of the game: in addition to “Ball two, outside!”, we can add “Ball two, unfair!”

Every time Max hits the ball to the left of center, it’s a miss-hit, an accident. It happens, but it’s usually something accidentally sliced (which can work), or a pitch he was late on and hits lazily in the air. At this point it just is what it is, because it’s the same every year. The ball has to go over the fence at a very healthy rate when he hits it, or his value will be very limited.

You don’t think Morris ever had 11-game starting stretches as or more dominant than Maeda just had in 2020? You’d be wrong. Not with the Twins...but with Detroit. Multiple times. (And to be fair to Morris, the 66.2 innings Maeda pitched in 2020 would only be the equivalent of 8 or 9 Morris starts.) Also pretty disingenuous to suggest Morris was ‘average’ (or worse) in the post season when his numbers are skewed by a disastrous age 37 campaign....a career stage Maeda will have to go a ways to even have a chance to match. Morris was 7–4 in the postseason and across the 7 wins he was required to AVERAGE 8.2 innings per start. 8 and 2/3 average start across the 7 wins. No opportunity to duck the meat of the batting order the 3rd time through...or the 4th. So, yeah...you should have left it at ‘it’s oranges to orangutans’. In the meantime, I’m thinking Maeda is going to be very good in 2021...and am still hoping he can help Berrios somehow in Jose’s ongoing quest to attain elite command, because Maeda certainly has it.

If by “fun” you mean hard to take seriously...I’m with you.

Authors may need to challenge themselves to be a bit more objective in this series. As a club, the White Sox lineup was significantly better offensively than the Twins was last year. Significantly. And they have more, not fewer, key young guys with additional upside. Do the Twins have relative advantages among lineup players? Yes....and maybe. But, it’s not even remotely as one-sided as suggested by the author. I shudder to think of the upcoming pitching comparison...where the Twins were actually way better than Chicago last year, and still figure to have an advantage.

Isn’t it interesting that nobody seems concerned with Maeda adding a couple of ticks of VELO to his 90 MPH fastball? Weird.

You’re worried about the #8 and #9 guys in the bullpen? Even if we had 9 all-stars in the bullpen...ranging from HOF’er to guy having really good year...the #8 and #9 would still never see enough leverage to matter more than maybe a game in the regular season and zero in the post season. There will always be blowouts, there will always be planned and unplanned off days, there will always be days when the staff only has to cover 8 innings. IMO, much better to worry...always, and no matter what, this year included...about how the top guys perform. Also, IMO, if the Twins are on track for the post-season, it’s a no-brained to use starting depth in the bullpen if the middle or bottom really do break that horrifically (or they become ‘openers’). But again, nothing’s going to save you if the top end breaks.

The impact of Expected Runs on modern bunting is over-stated, or at least over-simplified. It's about who's playing the game. People didn't need Sabermetrics to know you didn't ask Killebrew to bunt (or hit behind the runner; or take an outside pitch the other way). And I'm pretty sure Killebrew was bad at all those things, simply because I never saw him do any of them. But asking Frank Quilici to bunt...or even Matty Alou? Completely different. Believe me, every manager in 1969 would gladly have given up Alou's 231 hits, bunting ability, and 35 strikeouts, to take on the hardship of Killebrew's 85 K's and inability to lay down a good bunt.. The difference is the Frank Quilici's are dead, and the Matty Alou's are dying. In their place? Players trying and failing to be Killebrew or Reggie Jackson. Producing half the levels of goodness with twice (or more) of the badness. Of course, Sabermetrics has a lot to do with that. And the numbers feed on themselves. First, they confirm pitching specialization has made it even harder to be Matty Alou (contact, stringing hits), which in turn, further reinforces the need for everyone in the development and scouting cycles to try even harder to produce Killebrew's (yank and launch, in case you hit it). That, of course, drives the contact/hit numbers down even further. And so it goes...where will it end? The bunt remains the correct play under the same circumstances it always was the correct play. Over-utilized in the past? Yes, but probably not as much as is the current perception given the conditions, players, and ballparks of the past. And under-utilized in the modern game...due in no small part to circumstances where neither the bunter nor the batter in the on-deck circle have the bat skills to execute the strategy.

I THINK he’s ready...but you wouldn’t necessarily know it by watching all his at-bats this spring. Now 3 hits (including the homer above) and a walk in 20 PA...and actually struggling to make consistently contact with 7 K’s now.

Not enough.

I know these are supposed to be fun and academic exercises. But Cincinnati was a playoff team last year...I don’t think the loss of one piece is going to send them headlong into an immediate rebuild. This is Cincinnati, not Miami. Meanwhile, the Reds are looking at three more years of Castillo at an insanely good value...he’s not in any way currently contributing to payroll issues for the club. Bottom line, it would require a massive overpay to get Castillo in 2021. So, that’s what I’ll be looking for tomorrow...a massive overpay. Anything less than that is quite unrealistic. To do the ‘all-in’ thing, the timing for the partner needs to work, and it doesn’t with Cincinnati and Castillo.

I don’t have a problem with the exclusion of Lewis on this list. There have been questions about his hit tool from day one and he hasn’t exactly quieted them. When the best argument for inclusion is the weakness of the list, it’s not much of an endorsement. I also wouldn’t argue his inclusion toward the bottom. It is what it is...but, I don’t think the Twins are unique here as the hit and other tools whither into near-irrelevance compared to Power in the modern game. Gabriel Maciel?

Something mechanical to unlock a tick of two of velo? Maybe. But I don’t see that (or endurance...he couldn’t get in any better shape) as the primary issue, either. Command and consistency. He’s aggressive (which I love), but his stuff is not so dominant that he can consistently get away with mistakes (unless of course he’s pitching against the 2017-2019 Royals, Tigers, or White Sox against whom he padded the stats you cite quite handsomely). Berrios already has a combination of velocity and movement that is solidly above average. And while, to his credit, he’s been consistently willing to throw the ball over the plate, his command within the strike zone seems wildly inconsistent and sometimes, flat non-existent.

We can assume, then that any player caught violating the protocols will be immediately released as well? Or is this only the policy for employees with modest salaries/contracts for which the club would potentially be liable? The latter, I’m guessing.

Cool article. I especially liked the ‘played other sports in HS’, the ‘D2’, and the ‘effortless 97’ parts. FWIW, I’ll take the effortless 97 over the max-effort 100 every time. Good luck to all!

I would hope the Twins make an offer commensurate with a talented and valuable defensive player who is often injured and who hasn’t yet proven to be valuable offensively. Last year was a short sample with wildly unsustainable small-sample ISO and HR/FB numbers...the career offensive numbers speak for themselves...and was already so broken at the end of last season that he was benched in the playoffs. So, that type of offer. If some club is still in love with the concept that is Byron Buxton, you trade him to that club. If not, I have no problem with a middling offer and hoping for the best.

Ah, there it is. The annual ‘this will be the year Kepler’s BABIP normalizes’ article. To be fair, this is the first in this early spring tradition that does more than hint that the issue is not really bad luck and shifts, but instead, Kepler’s approach and swing. Which it 100% is. His offensive value has been anchored to how often the fly balls to right field leave the park. Period. And if the 2021 ball is as ‘different’ from the 2019 ball as feared (by batters)...I’m not holding my breath on a great year from Kepler. Can he change his approach at age 28? Maybe. He may need to.

It’s a good question as we saw time and again how Rocco wanted the left-handed bat in the 4 hole...almost no matter how Rosario was swinging it. Still, Buxton is not an option, even if he ran like Usain Bolt. It’s taken 1500 PA to establish his .289 career OBP (it actually went further in the wrong direction in 2021). How many additional PA with different outcomes would it take for Baldelli to reconsider? A lot...like hundreds, I’m guessing. Depending upon who’s playing (which catcher and whether Arraez is in the lineup and for whom)... Right handed starter: Arraez or Kepler with Arraez if they’re both in the lineup. (Polanco’s an option, as well) Lefty: Garver or Josh Donaldson (or Arraez) How Kirilloff profiles at the major league level (and how soon) will go a long way in deciding what Rocco can do with Kepler.

I’d be surprised if Gordon ever spends more than one ‘experimental’ season on a MLB active roster...and with a rebuilding team. Any scenario that has the Twins having to rely on him for a Major League role in 2021 is, basically, disaster. Anything more from Gordon would start with better health, and include, shall we say, better...”hunger” (which is probably the biggest difference between Dozier and Gordon). I like the Blankenhorn comp...seems about a perfect parallel. Also Rooker in a scenario where he is able to cut down on the swing-and-miss and suddenly leave us with big doses of that super hard contact.

I mean, it’s not likely simply because even among those that start strong and show the potential (as Arraez has), only about one in a hundred are going to end up developing near the level Carew/Gwynn achieved. Could happen of course. I think Arraez is more limited with his lack of high end speed. Also, with his swing, it’s hard to see him ever getting to 10-15 HR in a season. Still, I have no problem with where Arraez is on this list. I think his AVE/OBP could be sustainably high enough to be valuable...and it’s arguable that it’s more valuable to this club than is Jeffers’ SLG, just based on scarcity.

Yikes! Pretty thin in terms of accomplishment these days. Under 25 lists are always swayed to potential relative to accomplishment (in MLB terms), but this is fairly extreme. Kinda highlights that the Twins are not really a young team any more. Need the next wave to start impacting soon.