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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Can’t say I disagree. But if they continue this, it’ll be the best cap in their history in my eyes.
  2. jkcarew
    The kind of win that good teams have a handful of during a season…and bad teams almost never get. Behind early, on the road, opposition starter is a stud. I’d imagine this would be a good confidence-booster for the lads.
  3. jkcarew
    To be fair, I think this was a very small number of very ‘persistent’ posters.
  4. jkcarew
    I don’t know. In his first two at-bats, it resulted in two balls hit right on the screws for hits.
  5. jkcarew
    A left-handed bat that hits righties like Garlick hits lefties is an all-star (maybe not quite with Garlick’s defensive profile) Instead, he’s a AAAA guy. Doesn’t seem fair.
  6. jkcarew
    Huge. Not even in the same universe.
  7. jkcarew
    3 runs over 6 was about what I hoped for. Gives the team a puncher’s chance in what was a pretty unfavorable matchup.
  8. jkcarew
    Hopefully, it's a Yankee thing and not a Shane Bieber thing.
  9. jkcarew
    I COULD have seen the SB and SO things. Not the HR SLG 🤣 I choose to perform the mental gymnastics of knowing it's not sustainable...AND enjoying it.
  10. jkcarew
    I like the summary. And, yes, some early-season small samples are making some guys look better than they probably are, and some worse than they probably are. Jeffers, Solano, Vasquez...all with unsustainably high BABiP. (Not that there aren't other encouraging things burried in their numbers. There are.) Gordon with a ridiculously GOOD K-rate (very low)...but a horrific BABiP. He's putting almost every ball into play...and almost every one is resulting in an out. Miranda, also with good-ish BB and K rates...but low BABiP.
  11. jkcarew
    Who had M.A.T. leading the club in HR more than two weeks in?
  12. jkcarew
    I'd have to guess that Balazovic, at least for now, remains a starter? And they're just stretching him out as he didn't get a full spring training? Maybe someone on TD staff can corroborate? But then again, I guess they could accomplish that by having him start the games instead of being the 2nd guy in? I hope they aren't moving him yet. Had command issues. But last year it seemed, almost without exception, that the pitches in the strike-zone were getting destroyed. It's very very early, but pitches in the strike-zone were not getting destroyed...and in several instances, were swings-and-misses. The hit was a ground ball single. Baby steps, and fingers crossed.
  13. jkcarew
    Yep...nice blog entry. His numbers this year are very much in line with his previous major league seasons. In short...his ISO is significantly too low for a guy that K's as frequently as he does. That's if you project him to be a power-hitter. If you project him to be a tall Louis Arraez...then his K% is way too high for a guy with a low ISO. Only has 540 big-league PA, so he's making adjustments we can be assured.
  14. jkcarew
    Agree on the power profile. That would be a reasonable expectation. But unfortuately...at least at this point...Larnach doesn't project to have anything close to Freeman's bat-to-ball skill. Freeman had a career K% of 19, Larnach is sitting at 33%. Maybe the K% can come way in? Maybe that's the way the issue should be viewed? Still, if the K% doesn't come in significantly, Larnach will NEED to hit more HR/XBH to have value. Hitting-wise, if you can't be more like Freddie Freeman, be more like Byron Buxton, where you K very much, but the HR/XBH rate (basically ISO) is high. He's at 540 career PA...very much in the 'still adjusting' area of being a major leaguer. So, we'll see.
  15. jkcarew
    His career splits are not horrendous. I don't know if that's good or bad...as it means his SLG/ISO even against right-handed pitching has been underwhelming (particularly for corner outfielder that doesn't project as a plus defender). His one HR so far this year is against a lefty. However, I see he's out of today's lineup against a tough lefty. It's a head-scratcher to me. Some guys look hopeless in the box, and then two months later you look at the numbers and the guy's a stud. Some guys look like they're always going to hit the ball and hit it hard, and then two months later you look at the numbers, and you question whether they should be playing. Unfortunately, early in his career, Larnach is the latter type. Although, as Farmerguy points out above, his career has consisted of a lot of fits and starts so far. Might just need to have a good long stretch where he can settle in.
  16. jkcarew
    Despite the nice start, Trevor Larnach is falling into a disturbing pattern that has marked his early career. Mysteriously low extra-base power. It's mystifying on the face of it....big guy, pretty swing...but it's very real. His career and current season SLG's are stunningly low. The OBP has been decent, but the high K%, and lack of extra-base production is killing his value. After 59 PA this year, he has exactly 2 xbh. Pacing toward about 25 xbh for a full season. Yikes. I'm sure he and the staff are working on this. But if the power doesn't show this season, it's hard to think his future with the club won't be impacted. What do you see as Larnach's issue with generating power...at least somewhat consistent power?
  17. jkcarew
    It sounds like they will do this sporadically with Maeda…and maybe Mahle too? Assuming otherwise ‘normal’ health and effectiveness.
  18. jkcarew
    Wow. Buxton plays, Correa plays. We hit, and we pitch. And Kirilloff hits HR in rehab!
  19. jkcarew
    I've been somewhat of a critic of WAR. But in this case, WAR seems an appropriate way of looking at Buxton's value... At current rate (has about the same OPS he posted in 2022), if Buxton were to play all year at DH, his bWAR would come in around 3.5 for the season. That's LESS THAN what he posted in each of the last two seasons when he played about half the season (or less)...but primarily played CF. They're darned if they do, and darned if they don't. And I don't think we can assume that DH'ing will have a huge favorable impact on how many games he can play. Should help in theory. And then we witness yesterday's baserunning debacle.
  20. jkcarew
    Yep. Enlow’s start not as good as his first start was…but still kind of encouraging…only one XBH, lots of K’s. Would love to see him have a strong season, and put himself right back into the 2024 conversation. Also, would have expected a 2nd appearance for the Saints by Balazovic by now?
  21. jkcarew
    I’m with you except for the Buxton base running thing. No accident…it was Buxton being Buxton. Still, not in control of the new training staff.
  22. jkcarew
    And shouldn't it be "The The Bronx Zoo"?
  23. jkcarew
    I'm glad it got him where it got him (not GLAD, but 'glad'). Don't want the brain/skull/temple, and don't want the eye socket. Nothing would have been much better...but glad to hear the current prognosis.
  24. jkcarew
    This was true when the season started. Two weeks in, it's certainly still true. The good news is that we're off to an 8-4 start, with most of the OF stories being negative so far (Larnach the exception). The bad news is, it's probably not sustainable without a couple more of these guys coming through. If Buxton is healthy the ENTIRE year, but only plays DH...his WAR will end up about the same as it was in 2021 and 2022 when he played 60-90 games. If we want a 'bounce-back' in value provided by Buxton...he HAS to play CF at some point. Sitting where we sit now, (with today's base running disaster staring us in the face), it seems a long-shot. Not only will we need at least one of Kepler/Gallo....I'd say we need two of Kepler/Gallo/Kirilloff to have good years. Again, probably something that was, and always will be, true about 2023's roster.
  25. jkcarew
    The legitimate (and now obvious) reasons for pulling Gray aside...it's amazing how when the relief pitcher gets batters out, we (and I include myself here) don't seem that bothered. In a hypothetical situation...let's call it 2022...where a healthy Gray was pulled in that situation, the reliever immediately coughs up the lead, and we have TD fodder...over and over.
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