jkcarew
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Everything posted by jkcarew
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Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects: #10 RHP Blayne Enlow
jkcarew replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Whatever criteria is used for age...Enlow comes out much younger than the last three pitchers who appear on these rankings...almost 4 years younger than Thorpe... and between 1 1/2 to 2 years younger than Canterino and Colina. Very much a work in progress with high upside, which is exactly what you would expect Enlow to be at this point and given his draft status. -
Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects: 11-15
jkcarew replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
"(Wallner) got in a healthy 291 plate appearances as a pro at age 21. The results weren't necessarily amazing, but they're almost eerily similar to those Alex Kirilloff put up in his own Elizabethton debut, as a first-round pick in 2016. I think we all recall what followed in the (delayed) encore." Granted, he's 'only' coming in at 14th, but let's not go there. Apples and oranges. Wallner was 21 coming off 3 years of D1 competition in a very good conference. Kirilloff, 18, coming in off of facing high-school competition...in Pennsylvania no less. Kirilloff's debut performance was vastly more impressive than Wallner's. I agree with keeping Javier in this neighborhood...for now.- 18 replies
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- matt canterino
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Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects: 16-20
jkcarew replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thanks for doing these! Just fun and interesting. I'm with Tom on Colina. A hard-throwing 5-11 (if that) guy that can rack up innings to be a year-after-year reliable starter? Doubtful. Not never...but doubtful. FWIW...we question a 21-year-old Graterol because he's never been able to exceed 102 innings pitched in a season. Colina's max is 109 innings...last year was less than 100. I would evaluate him lower as a potential guy on the back end of a bullpen. -
Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects: Honorable Mentions
jkcarew replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ensuring that Gordon started the season on the IL... just another example of the brilliance of the current FO.- 17 replies
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This article gets ahead of itself quite a bit, IMO... Chacin won't even see the 40-man until/unless a fairly significant string of events unfolds. Barring a spring-training disaster, one or two of the young arms already on the 40-man will get the opportunities to start the season. If they fail as a group, and/or there are other injuries...and Chacin is good at Rochester....then maybe. It's just insurance...supplementary insurance even...the kind you buy when you already have insurance, but don't love it.
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Miguel Sano with Sights Set on Hall of Fame Records
jkcarew replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Like others, I love the idea of Sano glued to the seat/spot next to Cruz...in the batting cage, dugout, clubhouse, plane. Please, Miggy...continue to be asking Nelson ton's of questions and watching every aspect of every single one of his at-bats. -
Hear Me Out: It’s Time for Junior Ortiz Boulevard
jkcarew replied to RandBalls Stu's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I was thinking of posting an image of a street sign that read... '0 Street' I'm sure it's out there somewhere.- 12 replies
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- new ulm
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We Probably Should Still Be Worried About Cleveland
jkcarew replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nice article. Great point on Ramirez...in the 2nd-half, he was absolutely 100% the player that finished third in MVP voting the two prior seasons. He's a star. He's 27. Lindor just turned 26. We still talk about our 26-27 year-olds in terms of 'taking the next step'. What if Ramirez and Lindor can have even bigger seasons than they've had. Still very good chance of that...even likely at some point. And the pitching...so, yeah. Last year, pretty much everything that could go wrong for them, did go wrong. Lost some pitching...but still have pitching. We'll see...I still think they finish first or second. -
Get to Know Twins RHP Prospect Jhoan Duran
jkcarew replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Congrats on the HS diploma, Jhoan!!- 24 replies
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- jhoan duran
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The game after the Berrios game, Santana, Rogers, and Kintzler held the Astros to 2 runs. The game after that our favorite whipping boy, Kyle Gibson held his own. Meanwhile, when the Astros's visited Target Field that year, sans garbage can, they hung 40 runs on the Twins in 3 games...including 9 base-runners and 4 runs in 5 innings to hang another loss on Berrios. I'm all for consequences (although, 'punishment' comes from the league, not the Twins). They created an advantage by willfully, and in an organized fashion, doing something against the rules. They cheated. But there is simply not much in the data to say that it was particularly effective or sustained....despite what some will try to do by cherry-picking specific at-bats and games.
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Is that what I said? Not even in the universe of what I said. If I don't call Sano a great hitter...yet...it's not quite the same as saying I don't think he has value, is it? He does. Quit a bit. Meanwhile, he still has his pitch recognition issues and he still cheats at times to protect the inner half....those challenges contribute to the swings and misses...not just "swinging hard" (Sano's a lower-half guy in terms of generating the power). The puchline to my post was that Sano's results can get even better. It's a function of the immense power combined with material opportunities for improvement. It's the opposite of a bad thing to say about Sano.
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But let's dump Jake Cave from the 26-man roster...because...well, pretty much any free agent we could pick up would be better than him...not to mention about a half dozen guys within our own organization who have options. Right? Also, wouldn't read too much into the Avila number. 2019 was an extremely small sample size for him (only 200 or so PA). Although his bat will play up...as long as Garver is healthy...Avila can basically avoid left-handed pitching entirely, as was the case last year for him with the Diamondbacks. Nice article. Interesting. What has never made sense to me is how a guy like Sano can be among the league leaders in swings-and-misses (I presume this to be true)...and also right at the top of barrel percentage. How does that work? You frequently miss the ball entirely, but when you make contact, your contact is more precise than everyone else? I suspect that what's closer to the truth is that 'ordinary' players often put the barrel on the ball, but don't get the results to qualify under this metric. Meanwhile, Sano probably leads the universe in not getting the middle of the barrel to the ball...and having the result still meet the mph and launch angle criteria. I would guess that there are two types of hitters than fit at the top of this chart. Great hitters (like Cruz), and ridiculously strong hitters, like Sano. In other words...this could get even better for Sano.
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Catching Up with Twins RHP Prospect Dakota Chalmers
jkcarew replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
DING! DING! DING! It's super relevant (unless you've never been on a farm...or driven past one)...but just as importantly...it has the potential to be extremely annoying to the person you hang it on. Great nicknames need to have an element of both endearment and annoyance. This is it.- 24 replies
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Not sure there's much difference between Pineda and Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe (despite Thorpe's small-sample 2019 results). Don't think not having Pineda in the first quarter of the season will make a material difference. And, who knows what the Twins will get from Hill (hopefully, we can find out before the trade deadline). The difference that matters is the (still hypothetical) guy that can start game 1/2 of a 5-game playoff series with a real and good chance of controlling a stud lineup for 6 or more innings. And chances remain decent, that that guy won't be needed to finish ahead of Cleveland and Chicago. Risky, but probably still true in the 2020 AL Central.
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Justin Morneau Joins Twins Hall of Fame
jkcarew replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Every bit the 'what if' story that Mauer was, IMO. Congrats!- 16 replies
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Twins Boast Plethora of Backup Options
jkcarew replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good article. Still need to have good fortune/health...but agree that the floor for the 2020 club would seem to be very high by Twins historical standards. Would actually like to see slightly 'less' depth after the trade deadline -
4 Options for Twins' Final Bench Spot
jkcarew replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Don't get some of the comments regarding Cave. He's a fourth outfielder. He catches the ball when it's hit to him and he has a 111 career OPS+...last year he was 112. Meanwhile, we think Buxton is about to become Willie Mays...his OPS+ last year was 114. Likewise with LaMonte Wade. Beside the fact that his SLG is exceptionally poor...there were 7 guys at Rochester last year that had better OBP than he did. One of those was...you guessed it...Cave. Meanwhile, they're both left-handed and can't play center field. I can only chalk it up to the eternal desire for something new/different. IMO, if not Cave...then someone like Dyson who can be a defensive substitution late in games, and play a legitimate center field once a week or so. -
Buxton's Offense Is Launching... Or Has It Launched?
jkcarew commented on TwerkTwonkTwins's blog entry in Ryan Stephan's Twinpinions
Throw out 2018. Compare 2017, his 'promising' year, to last season. Significantly lower K%. Very Good. Same OBP, modestly improved BA, same HR%...way higher SLG. How is that possible? His BB% actually slipped a little. His BABiP slipped significantly with all the pulling and launching (more pull-happy than ever in 2019). But doubles. Lots and lots of doubles. Buxton's career doubles rate going into last year...just over 4%. Last year, easily over 10%...highest in baseball among players with 250+ PA. Only player in that category with more doubles than singles...no player you've ever heard of even close. Probably not sustainable for long. The good news is that he can eventually translate the improved ability to barrel to more HR's...along with a good number of doubles/triples. Meanwhile, it would be great if he could use right and right center more...would really help that BA/BABiP, IMO.- 9 comments
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- byron buxton
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