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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    6-5, 230. Balazovic closing in on 6-5, 220. It doesn't guarantee anything, but when assessing the chances that someone can sling a baseball 95 mph 3000+ times over the course of a summer, like a major-league starter will...the stats above help...a lot.
  2. jkcarew
    It's all about whether he will function effectively as a catcher in the major leagues. Highly questionable according to many reports when he was drafted. If that's trending favorably, and significantly so...which it seems to be doing...that would be huge.
  3. jkcarew
    I support the trade...even like it. But also acknowledge that the trade is a bet on Graterol not being able to handle a major-league starter's workload. If Graterol becomes a reliable starter in the major leagues...really any time in the next 3 years or so...then it is HIGHLY likely the Twins FO will regret this deal. But that's the nature of trades. You can't win if you don't play.
  4. jkcarew
    and 5 points if he had used 'short-lived'.
  5. jkcarew
    Too high. He's currently basically the equivalent of a promising player in the Dominican league...regardless of where the Twins happened to have drafted him. In fact, I bet the Twins wish they could have played him in the Dominican league last year...because there didn't seem to be a league in affiliated ball where he was suited to play.
  6. jkcarew
    There will be legitimate reasons that medical reports kill or modify trades. The behavior that does the damage is... 1. - leaking trades to the media/blogosphere before trades are final 2. - the media/blogosphere going with anything and everything they hear...or heard somewhere.
  7. jkcarew
    Is he more guilty than Polanco or Pineda because he hasn't been punished? He's not in control of punishment. Was his 'apology' any more dissatisfying than the 'apologies' offered by Polanco and Pineda? No and No. I'll say it again to anyone that can't stand the idea of Gonzalez being on the club: would you like the Twins to drop Polanco and Pineda as well?
  8. jkcarew
    Actually, I don't see it as "the other thing"....I see it as THE thing. It's the four years...addressing the starting pitching need beyond 2020...and doing so without inhibiting the ability to spend money on higher-end options (or Berrios, etc.) if/when that time comes. That's the get that off-sets having Graterol in your bullpen, IMO.
  9. jkcarew
    I'd rather make the trade to a team that could use him to beat us in the World Series than to a team that could beat us in the AL Central or the AL playoffs, wouldn't you? Were there a lot of other NL teams out there that could supply us with 4 years of a Maeda for $3M+ incentives per year?
  10. jkcarew
    I'm both good and disappointed with the trade. This is a good move for the next 3-4 years. The contract speaks for itself, and it addresses a big need which is starting pitching beyond 2020. This isn't really just a 2020 'win-now' move. The disappointing part is that this is confirmation that the Twins didn't see Graterol ever holding up to a major-league starter workload. And that's quite different from what everyone was hoping for when we ranked/discussed Graterol as being at the very top of the prospect list.
  11. jkcarew
    Of course they have an idea. They have a ton of information and data that you and I don't. And their information lead them to make the deal. What you are insinuating is that you think they'll be wrong. We'll see.
  12. jkcarew
    But there is no other argument. A good starter is worth more than a great reliever. Period. It's easier to find guys who can work 3-4 innings a week one inning at a time and get people out. Much harder to find guys who can throw 5+ innings a game, 200 innings a year effectively. And that's what's going on with this trade. If the Twins thought Graterol was going to be able to handle a major-league starter workload, they wouldn't have offered him for Maeda. (The presumption being that the Twins still feel like Balazovic will be able to handle a starters workload.)
  13. jkcarew
    I mean, if you really believe Graterol won't be able to handle a starter workload in the majors, you'd rather have Downs. So, I think the Red Sox FO will be able to sell it, given the narrative they've fed their fans for the last 48 hours. Downs is a middle-infielder (still playing mostly shortstop) who had a combined A+/AA OPS of .888....at age 20.
  14. jkcarew
    It's all a part of the slow, painful process of anger, denial, and acceptance of the fact that the Twins FO doesn't (didn't) think Graterol can be a starting pitcher in the major leagues. And, the accompanying belief that Balazovic is still on track to be a starter.
  15. jkcarew
    But if the Twins FO thought he was going to be a top starter they wouldn't have offered him in this deal, right...for a good-not-great starter? We can wish all we want, but it's pretty difficult now to suggest the Twins see Graterol as being a starter. Ever. Of course, that doesn't mean they'll be proven correct. We'll see.
  16. jkcarew
    Very legitimate sentiment, IMO. While, I probably side with those that feel we're seeing amateur hour unfold over in the Red Sox front offices....I don't think that exactly means that the medical records are 100% definitely irrelevant to this story. First, let's not pretend that we necessarily know everything in those medical reports...or that the Twins have made a practice of transparency with fans and media regarding Graterol's arm. Of course, they haven't. That's not the way things work. Meanwhile, there have been plenty of smoking guns in Graterol's young career. So, is it possible things might be at least a little worse than we assumed? That maybe reliever isn't a short-term choice, but a necessary long-term approach to manage injury risk? The fact that Boston should have been able to infer that the medical records would have issues based on public knowledge and Minnesota's willingness to trade him for Kenta Maeda...well that doesn't exactly say "but, the medical records are fine".
  17. jkcarew
    Every pitcher has a tough stretch or two...Berrios’s numbers are his numbers. The ‘concern’ regarding the Twins pitching has been, for the most part, how it stacks up in the playoffs. It’s relatively easy (in 2019, it was historically easy) to have success in the regular season playing in the AL Central. If your best starter is struggling to be a top 20 pitcher, you’re going to be at a disadvantage in the playoffs...and probably right out of the gate.
  18. jkcarew
    Agree on the potential willingness to pull trigger sooner rather than later on a bench bat role given his age...but fwiw....it's not at all obvious to me that he's going to be a superior offensive player to Cave, and we can assume he's not going to be defensively superior. Cave was a 112 OPS+ guy last year (111 career now)...and also out-hit Rooker at Rochester last year. I guess his right-handedness could play in a platoon situation...(although, Cave even indicated the ability to handle left-handed pitching last year, in a small sample). That kind of power gives him a chip and a chance, though.
  19. jkcarew
    I'd be a low-teens guy on Rooker. The 2019 number are inflated...both in terms of what the International league was in 2019 (there were 4 guys at Rochester last year that slashed better than Rooker)...and in terms of his unsustainably high BABiP. In 2018, as a 23-year-old in AA, he was .254/.333/.465. That's not bad, but it's not great either. And he's 25 now. Could be a late bloomer like Garver (was Garver ever ranked as high as #9?)...but Rooker has a much slimmer margin of error. Guys that can hit for power and play a bad corner outfield or first base are a dime a dozen. Catcher, not so much.
  20. jkcarew
    I don't think the arbitration outcome impacts how the future plays out in any way. But I do think the arbitration process presented us a snapshot of where the parties are at this particular time. And it doesn't seem that they are close. Still time. Seems Jose is betting on himself, and seems that the Twins are not yet ready to go to the elite money level for him. Both seem reasonable positions to me, but it also seems that the better Jose does in 2020/2021, the less likely he is to stick here beyond free agency. I guess that could be looked at as a good thing.
  21. jkcarew
    Whatever criteria is used for age...Enlow comes out much younger than the last three pitchers who appear on these rankings...almost 4 years younger than Thorpe... and between 1 1/2 to 2 years younger than Canterino and Colina. Very much a work in progress with high upside, which is exactly what you would expect Enlow to be at this point and given his draft status.
  22. jkcarew
    "(Wallner) got in a healthy 291 plate appearances as a pro at age 21. The results weren't necessarily amazing, but they're almost eerily similar to those Alex Kirilloff put up in his own Elizabethton debut, as a first-round pick in 2016. I think we all recall what followed in the (delayed) encore." Granted, he's 'only' coming in at 14th, but let's not go there. Apples and oranges. Wallner was 21 coming off 3 years of D1 competition in a very good conference. Kirilloff, 18, coming in off of facing high-school competition...in Pennsylvania no less. Kirilloff's debut performance was vastly more impressive than Wallner's. I agree with keeping Javier in this neighborhood...for now.
  23. jkcarew
    Thanks for doing these! Just fun and interesting. I'm with Tom on Colina. A hard-throwing 5-11 (if that) guy that can rack up innings to be a year-after-year reliable starter? Doubtful. Not never...but doubtful. FWIW...we question a 21-year-old Graterol because he's never been able to exceed 102 innings pitched in a season. Colina's max is 109 innings...last year was less than 100. I would evaluate him lower as a potential guy on the back end of a bullpen.
  24. jkcarew
    Ensuring that Gordon started the season on the IL... just another example of the brilliance of the current FO.
  25. jkcarew
    Hyperbole much? I don't think I'll choose stealing signs in major league baseball games as the criterion against which I'll determine that Altuve is scum and Lombardozzi is a great guy. Then again, I think I might be in the minority here.
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