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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Marwin Gonzalez's OPS in 2019 was 3 points higher than it was in 2018.
  2. jkcarew
    Nice, objective article on a player that seems to be pretty much universally admired. Well done. I’m not convinced he can’t figure things out (especially with the change up) and take another step. But this article does a good job of illustrating why...if you have to give him something like #1 money to keep him beyond 2022...it’s not at all clear that you should at this point.
  3. jkcarew
    No. They wouldn’t. At least at this point. Cave now has an 111 OPS+ in over 500 major-league plate appearances.
  4. jkcarew
    I've seen this sentiment pop up a few times during our off-season "impact pitching" saga. Berrios got through 4 innings, having given up 8 base-runners (one on an error)...and he took 88 pitches to do it. His WPA was -.126. If that's how your best pitcher is going to fare in his first start in a 5-game series, your chances of winning that series take a material hit.
  5. jkcarew
    Because it leaves you zero margin for error...even with the 13-man pitching staffs. Last year, the bullpen averaged 3.5 innings pitched per game...and still there were periods when they were taxed, and/or the top arms weren't available. A 'plan' that calls for them to go 4 innings per game isn't viable. Maybe in the future when things (rosters) evolve even further...but for now, your best pitcher still needs to get people out at a decent rate, AND eat innings. And if you have two guys that can eat innings that's twice as good as having one. Right now, the Twins have one.
  6. jkcarew
    I like several of the concepts here...particularly reducing the number of games and moving up the conclusion of the playoffs. But, I think you can get most of what this is getting at in a much more simple way... Eliminate inter-league games. If you're in St. Louis and the 160 times per season you can watch/stream Mike Trout isn't enough...drive to Chicago.Reduce the number of games to 154 (or 148)Don't balance the schedule (that's what the wild card and playoffs are for); keep the regional rivalriesAdd 2 teams to the playoff format (making it 8 teams for each league) The biggest challenges with the ideas in this thread... There's not enough revenue sharing in the foreseeable future for some owners to agree to a format where they can end up playing significantly fewer games than the teams that they have to compete against"not knowing where/who you will be playing until a few days in advance" for a significant number of games played in the summer months? That's an absolute deal-breaker. A HUGE part of baseball game-day revenue is supplied by rural people/families on summer vacations/trips. Teams will reject risking July and August in this manner. Not reject...not even consider.
  7. jkcarew
    "...saying ZiPS is harder on those lower on the defensive spectrum, hated Kirilloff’s 2019 (due to injury and not hitting enough for corner OF/1B) and didn’t like Larnach due to his lack of power." Over half of Larnach's minor-league plate appearances have been in the FSL with Fort Myers. His small sample-power at Pensacola last year was the same as was Jeffers'. Jeffers is getting a big premium here for projecting as a catcher. We'll see. Interestingly, Blankenhorn's power numbers at Pensacola last year were better than both Jeffers and Larnach...and at the same age. And I agree that there was really not much in Kirilloff's 2019 numbers at Pensacola that scream "knocking on door". But he's also a year younger than the others (and having missed one entire year of development).
  8. jkcarew
    If you give Berrios a Jake Odorizzi workload (160 innings vs 200)...and his performance doesn't pop significantly...he becomes less valuable than Odorizzi. At this point in his career, no numbers stand out in driving value more than his innings-pitched numbers....his ability to give the bullpen a relative break on a consistent basis....and his ability to provide something close to decent even on bad days, as opposed to having to mix in 6, 7, 8 extra starts for a #5 or #6 guy...who's top-end is only decent...and short, at that. If limiting his innings doesn't move the bar big-time on effectiveness, you've simply taken a guy who's a number 2 because he can't consistently dominate...and you've made him a 3 because now, he doesn't eat innings, either. Let's hope for a different solution.
  9. jkcarew
    I agree there have been big red flags for some time with Graterol in terms of his being a major-league starter. And also agree that pointing those out wasn't a way to become popular here. His TD prospect rankings these last two seasons are indications that the writers on this site mostly chose to ignore those flags. Still, I don't know that he NEVER becomes a starter. Never's a long time. But, it's clear to me based on the deal they made, that the Twins think it's unlikely to work for the foreseeable future.
  10. jkcarew
    Based on what? IMO, the jury is still very much out on this.
  11. jkcarew
    Have your 6th best pitcher pitch more and your best pitcher pitch less...as a deliberate strategy? This will be done as necessitated by injury and fatigue, not as a deliberate long-term strategy. The best pitchers will always be the best. Pay a guy...what, 2-5 times more than an average starter and 4-8 times more than a good reliever...then have him throw 140 innings? I don’t see this happening for a while. I won’t say never, though.
  12. jkcarew
    "Before you brandish your pitchforks, do know that I was born in Wisconsin..." Oh, yeah...that's SO much better. Just kidding. We love our Wisconsin Minnesota fans. Nice article.
  13. jkcarew
    In other news, every pitcher on the Twins current staff has better stuff than Walter Johnson because their k/9 is significantly better than his was. This is going to be a GREAT year!
  14. jkcarew
    Berrios threw 88 pitches to get through 4 innings, giving up 8 base runners (one on an error), and 3 runs, 1 earned. Did he embarrass himself? No. Nor did he pitch anything close to "well" if the objective is to beat a team who will be throwing Cole against you.
  15. jkcarew
    Soroka threw 140+ innings not once, but twice in back-to-back minor league seasons...and then the following year, he still didn't break camp with the major league club. Balazovic has reach 93 innings (last year). I think the challenge with thinking/wanting Balazovic to be like Soroka...is that that has to happen at age 18. Unfortunately, there's probably not any amount of wishing at this point that can somehow make Balazovic prepared to do what Soraka did at age 21. I would think/hope the Twins will push his innings this year (pending health).
  16. jkcarew
    Not sure how you come up with this take. IMO, a more accurate take would be "Poor development of starters necessitates Graterol trade". If we're talking about the current administration...and we're talking development (not draft/evaluation), particularly of starting pitchers...then this FO has had their hand in plenty of failures. Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero...even Graterol. Meanwhile, the others that have made it to the majors are a mix of 'we'll see' and low ceilings. For instance, Wes Johnson was widely quoted regarding his plans to get more velo out of the intriguing prospect that was Stephen Gonsalves. A year later Gonsalves is released. This staff didn't 'develop' much of anything out of the top starting prospects they inherited. Stewart, also nothing, Romero seems to have gone backwards, and Graterol may have been a lost cause, but they ended up trading him for far less than anyone would have imagined 12 months ago. If any of these guys...including guys like Thorpe, were looking like reliable major league starters by 2020, the Twins could have kept Graterol in the bullpen to make the overall pitching staff that much stronger. There's optimism that real success is right around the corner with Duran, Balazovic, and/or one of the currently-rostered young arms taking a big step. But up to this point?...some big disappointments...mixed with a few small wins with low ceiling guys.
  17. jkcarew
    6-5, 230. Balazovic closing in on 6-5, 220. It doesn't guarantee anything, but when assessing the chances that someone can sling a baseball 95 mph 3000+ times over the course of a summer, like a major-league starter will...the stats above help...a lot.
  18. jkcarew
    It's all about whether he will function effectively as a catcher in the major leagues. Highly questionable according to many reports when he was drafted. If that's trending favorably, and significantly so...which it seems to be doing...that would be huge.
  19. jkcarew
    I support the trade...even like it. But also acknowledge that the trade is a bet on Graterol not being able to handle a major-league starter's workload. If Graterol becomes a reliable starter in the major leagues...really any time in the next 3 years or so...then it is HIGHLY likely the Twins FO will regret this deal. But that's the nature of trades. You can't win if you don't play.
  20. jkcarew
    and 5 points if he had used 'short-lived'.
  21. jkcarew
    Too high. He's currently basically the equivalent of a promising player in the Dominican league...regardless of where the Twins happened to have drafted him. In fact, I bet the Twins wish they could have played him in the Dominican league last year...because there didn't seem to be a league in affiliated ball where he was suited to play.
  22. jkcarew
    There will be legitimate reasons that medical reports kill or modify trades. The behavior that does the damage is... 1. - leaking trades to the media/blogosphere before trades are final 2. - the media/blogosphere going with anything and everything they hear...or heard somewhere.
  23. jkcarew
    Is he more guilty than Polanco or Pineda because he hasn't been punished? He's not in control of punishment. Was his 'apology' any more dissatisfying than the 'apologies' offered by Polanco and Pineda? No and No. I'll say it again to anyone that can't stand the idea of Gonzalez being on the club: would you like the Twins to drop Polanco and Pineda as well?
  24. jkcarew
    Actually, I don't see it as "the other thing"....I see it as THE thing. It's the four years...addressing the starting pitching need beyond 2020...and doing so without inhibiting the ability to spend money on higher-end options (or Berrios, etc.) if/when that time comes. That's the get that off-sets having Graterol in your bullpen, IMO.
  25. jkcarew
    I'd rather make the trade to a team that could use him to beat us in the World Series than to a team that could beat us in the AL Central or the AL playoffs, wouldn't you? Were there a lot of other NL teams out there that could supply us with 4 years of a Maeda for $3M+ incentives per year?
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