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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I'm somewhat surprised by the first two games, but not that surprised the Twins are 0-2 at this point...and it has nothing to do with curses or the Yankees 'being in the Twins heads'. It has to do with the 2019 Yankees being better than the 2019 Twins. I thought the gap was relatively narrow, but maybe not. After all, the historic weakness of the Twins 2019 schedule warps perceptions. Fact is, there has probably never been a 100-win team in the history of MLB with a worse record against +500 teams than the Twins had in 2019. Over 40% of the total wins were recorded against Det, KC, and the White Sox. The schedule probably didn't just skew the win totals, but individual and team stats as well. Match-ups that look even, really aren't. Doesn't mean the Twins aren't good...or good enough to win a post-season game or two. Just not THAT good...and not nearly as good as the super-teams that exist in 2019. Gotta get top-end pitching in 2020.
  2. jkcarew
    The Twins chances are based on getting big leads early...which by definition means a starter going at least 5 innings in a somewhat effective manner. Our best starter didn’t really come close to doing that. That’s probably the most disappointing thing to me in a disappointing game.
  3. jkcarew
    Arraez in the lineup and batting 9th. I was wrong-er than you were . Does beg the question...how/when/why would you use Schoop, then? Pinch-hit late against Britton/Chapman? Which of our left-handed bats would you do that for? If Castro is in the game, you're pinch-hitting Garver. Maybe Kepler given his rust? Maybe a late-inning defensive replacement for Arraez?
  4. jkcarew
    With his current swing/approach, I don't see Arraez developing Altuve's power. Of course, Altuve didn't develop his power until later...so, maybe. But, I think Arraez would need to change his approach, and he doesn't have much incentive to do that...yet. Altuve developed power later...but he was also more or less 'forced' to make aggressive adjustments after OPS'ing 740/678 in his first two full seasons. Also, Altuve is much faster than Arraez. Much.
  5. jkcarew
    My bet's rest...with another left-handed bat used to PH if/when the situation dictates (Adrianza filling in defensively). But, I wouldn't bet much.
  6. jkcarew
    If Adrianza is healthy, that's a nice development. And Arraez too, of course. I'm assuming Arraez gets another day to rest the ankle today. Rust is a factor for everyone given the way the post-season schedule plays out...but especially for Kepler, Adrianza...and even Gonzalez and Cron.
  7. jkcarew
    "Arraez is the most traditional leadoff stud that you can think of." - huh? A 'traditional' lead-off guy would be able to run. Arraez is almost exactly a traditional number TWO guy...bat control, put the ball in play, hit-and-run, etc. Given the way the modern game is played, however...I have no problem leading him off. Give that we still have Schoop, I don't think Arraez is as vital to have against lefties/Paxton...but, you still want him, obviously.
  8. jkcarew
    If you absolutely ignore Severino...which this article basically does, yes, the Twins might have an advantage in the starting pitching. Severino first pitched in a competitive game back on Sept 1. Five weeks ago. I'm guessing he worked out once or twice beyond the game action he's seen. Can the Twins get to him? Of course. But, they'll have to deal with him and I'm sure he'll be ready to go as deep as any Twins pitcher (other than Berrios) has a reasonable chance of going.
  9. jkcarew
    About those 80 pitches: 5 innings, 3 hits, 9K, 0BB I'm hoping Odorizzi has the 'stamina and length' to do that with 130 pitches.
  10. jkcarew
    Biggest difference maybe is how their managers use them. Sanchez missed almost 7 weeks this year with various IL stints...yet still ended up with almost 100 more PA than did Garver. Neither is anything more than endurable behind the plate, but I don't think it's possible to be worse than Sanchez back there. Yet, when healthy, Boone pencils him in there on a regular basis, doesn't 'rest' him other than maybe the day game following night scenarios.
  11. jkcarew
    Nice piece. Interesting...always love to hear the stories behind the guys that didn't come from the CA/FL/Dominican hotbeds...(not that there aren't great stories there, as well.) The story makes me wonder about a couple of things... Given his background of playing multiple positions and being a good soccer goalie...kinda begs the question of why he couldn't play first base more this year. I get the rest thing for catchers...but Garver didn't appear in any capacity in 69 games this year. This remains a mystery. Given the pride factor regarding New Mexico kids on the UNM baseball team...so, how does Garver not then get a scholarship coming out of high school?
  12. jkcarew
    The way to ensure that Lewis is NOT as defensively flexible as he could be in the majors, would be to waste significant time developing him at 2nd, 3rd, and center field in the minors, to later find out you want/need him to play every-day SS in the majors. SS is by far (other than catcher) the most difficult position to play from a technical standpoint. The Twins will be smart to let that development run it's coarse before moving him around significantly.
  13. jkcarew
    Interesting...thanks for this! You really do have a bias for catchers ...you discount Sano as an MVP because he missed too many games...but give team MVP to Garver who played in significantly fewer games than did Sano. The top 3 MVP are Polanco, Cruz, and Kepler...almost any order, IMO. You’re pretty hard on Berrios. 200 innings pitched alone has to have him near the top. Sano belongs above Kepler in most improved. From .679 OPS in 299 PA to .923 in 439. He’s probably ahead of Polanco here, as well.
  14. jkcarew
    If Rocco’s willing to put Arraez in a major league lineup at a position he’s never played in his life, he won’t bat an eye at doing so with Lewis if the situation necessitated it...recognizing that Lewis, by all accounts, is in a completely different class athletically than is Arraez. But yes, I’m sure the Twins don’t really mind seeing him play a handful of games in the AFL at different positions.
  15. jkcarew
    Yeah...he won’t be there.
  16. jkcarew
    I think the primary factor in this narrative is not the 'biased' or 'unfair' media...it's the psychotic fan base. In this history, there is absolutely nothing at play other than the quality of the teams. If the team records were reversed this year...especially their records against winning teams...you'd see it reflected in the opinions of the national media and the Vegas odds. Truth is, the Yankees beat the Twins in past post-seasons because they were always the better team. Always. If they beat the Twins again this year, it'll be for the same reason. The good news is the gap may not be as large as it's been in the past...and the better team doesn't ALWAYS win a 5-game series.
  17. jkcarew
    Nope. Instead, they'll have to hope for something useful out of the likes of Giancarlo Stanton.
  18. jkcarew
    To their credit, the Twins are in a position to 'have' to play a good-defending veteran with 133 career HR's and a 2019 OPS+ of 103. I'd rather have Arraez. His OBP is a great fit in this lineup. But it could be way worse...and the Yankess will have their issues, as well.
  19. jkcarew
    Or...K% is meaningless when you lead the league in HR/PA. But I agree. It’s an opportunity. What would the OPS/wRC+ look like if he could bring the K% down 5%? 10%?
  20. jkcarew
    Nice list. Fun. 1B is Diaz over Wiel, about any way you could possibly measure it...except 'current organization'.
  21. jkcarew
    You develop him at short. Shortstop is the most difficult position from a technical standpoint. For superior athletes like Lewis it’s easy to transition to another position from SS if/when that time comes. Not so, in reverse. That’s the point. And that’s why he’ll stay there until the bat is ready and they have a specific spot open on the big club...at that point, the transition would happen fast, and he’d be here.
  22. jkcarew
    Yay!
  23. jkcarew
    I don't think we're forgetting how well Buxton was playing. I don't, anyway. I think most here are saying that, at this point, it's just hard to ignore the risk of his health...and the risk that all the injuries will diminish/neutralize the defense that is/was driving so much of his current/past value. (I also think WAR overstates his current value because of the magnitude of the defensive component of his WAR...but acknowledge that a 2019 version of Buxton that plays 150 games and OPS+'s 115 or so, is probably more valuable than anything we've seen from Sano so far.)
  24. jkcarew
    The fact that you acknowledge that Sano COULD lead the league in HR's some year...IMO, that's rationale for Sano having more future value, not Buxton. If I had a choice between the best defensive center fielder in the league...let's pretend he's around league average hitter....and the guy who leads the league in HR's, I'll take the guy who leads the league in HR's. Every time. IMO, the rationale for Buxton is that he is transformed offensively and his injury history pretty much immediately ends.
  25. jkcarew
    Funny... as in kinda ridiclous: Buxton's bWAR for 2019 is still somehow higher than Sano's. Exhibit A in the limitation of WAR, and the influence extreme and questionable math on the defensive side has on it. Recency suggests Sano would have more future value. But, I think it's still a tough call. If Buxton played 140+ games a year in center field at the offensive level he established this year, he'd be more valuable than Sano. Sano would have to materially raise his BA/OBP (which probably means lowering the K rate) to match Buxton's value if that were to happen. Still, we're currently looking at Sano trending toward improving his value, while Buxton's value seems at risk. So it's really hard to not say Sano is the better bet right now. Tough call...as Bill Brown posted above...this is why the FO make the big bucks.
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