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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    2018 was the outlier. No thanks.
  2. jkcarew
    For a team ready to compete now, a healthy Cron in 2020 is a better option that most being thrown around in this thread, other than... Sano (but what do you do about 3rd, then) Garver (zero indication Rocco plans on playing him at first for significant games/innings)
  3. jkcarew
    Madison Bumgarner had essentially the same season that Zack Wheeler had last year. MadBum with a few more innings pitched, a better WHIP, essentially the same K/9...and a slightly lower ERA+. MadBum is less that 10 months older than Wheeler. I get the extra 'mileage'..theoretically. Still, less than 10 months older. Talk up Wheeler, and swoop in and get MadBum on friendlier terms! (I'm fine with at least one of MadBum, Ryu, or Wheeler.)
  4. jkcarew
    I guess we'll find out to what extent some teams are willing to take the tanking concept. Selecting Javier...and keeping him on a major-league roster for the entire year...would take it to a new level, IMO.
  5. jkcarew
    Beyond Rendon, the only one worth moving Sano to 1B and 'replacing' Cron in the line-up would be Donaldson in a short, win-now move. But since pitching is more pressing than replacing Cron, I'd expect that Sano stays at 3B until a more obvious candidate to replace him there comes along. Having said that, I do find it problematic that the Twins seem to have zero prospects (based on current positions and performance) likely to provide offensive value at that position in the majors any time soon. Maybe Blankenhorn emerges as kind of a late-bloomer?
  6. jkcarew
    True. So...would I be upset if they spent that on Wheeler? No, hard to be upset when it would make them better in 2020, and the only alternative was to do less or do nothing. Still, based on how much better Wheeler makes them for that cost, I wouldn't be very optimistic that that contract would end up being worth it. If nothing else it highlights what a horrible position the organization has carved for itself with regard to starting pitching. Bad drafts, bad development, bad luck, bad trades...or unwillingness to make trades. Now you're forced to consider making deals like this.
  7. jkcarew
    Giving 30 year-old Zack Wheeler 5-6 years and, say, somewhere between M$110 - 140? Meanwhile, well inside the window of that contract, you need to pay (or not) Buxton, Sano, Berrios, even Garver, plus some number of other starting pitchers through free agency. I mean, if we're going to change 60 years of franchise history and bet big on a short-term window...I'd wish for an opportunity to go way big and get more of a needle-mover than Zack Wheeler.
  8. jkcarew
    I'd guess Rijo has more future value than Raley? But you think you can sneak Rijo through, while you don't think you can sneak Raley through just based on age and stage of development. Problem is, I'm not sure why you care that much if Raley is claimed. I guess if you think he has non-zero trade value. I would have gone the other way. It's seems that teams will be more willing to reach for a guy like Rijo with the extra roster spot. Like protecting Blankenhorn. Infield corner bat with pop...not something we have a ton of in the system. Doesn't bother me that Jax wasn't protected. I'd guess he get's claimed, but wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't, either. Can't imagine anyone taking Javier. K'd in 34% of PA at low A last year at age 20. I guess we'll see how far teams will go in this age of tanking.
  9. jkcarew
    Many of the arguments for not trading Kepler...he's better than Rosario, he's got a team-friendly contract, he can play center field, he's coming off a career year...These are all reasons Kepler would provide more/better pitching in a trade. Having said that, given Buxton's history, and Rosario's inconsistency...you can only trade Kepler at this particular point in time if you LOVE you some Alex Kirilloff...and probably some Brent Rooker for that matter. I don't think you can love either quite that much...not yet, anyway.
  10. jkcarew
    Agree...don't think this will have much impact at all on average game length. The biggest opportunity, by far, is figuring out how 300+ pitches can be delivered in less time. Although, I'd like to see some thought/discussion...even trials...go toward figuring out how 9-inning games can average something less than 300 pitches, as well. But, that's a tougher solve...with a relatively small (vs time between pitches) payoff.
  11. jkcarew
    I acknowledge that the plan is well-reasoned...and 'responsible' in terms of long term flexibility. But, how does it make you better in 2020...for the window that's in front of them? You now have an unproven commodity in left field, and another at first base (or third base), while your pitching should be better, but not great by any means. Agree that you try to extend Buxton...only because he's the obvious buy-low opportunity. Would be shocked (and disturbed, in an odd way) if his camp caved and didn't make a bet on him becoming a legitimate star.
  12. jkcarew
    If the Twins were to (very hypothetically ) splurge on any position other than pitcher...I'd be ok it being 3rd-base. Doesn't seem like any needle-moving options currently in the organization once Sano moves. And I love Rendon. Having said that, I do think his AAV will equal/exceed Machado's...meaning north of $30M. And since Machado was 3 years younger than Rendon will be, and Machado got 10 years...I think Rendon will get 7-8. So, would I do that? Probably not. Also, Gordon doesn't make us better in left field. Although, if Rosario helped return Jon Gray, it would probably be a net win. Gordon is most decidedly NOT an above-average fielder at this point. His most recent GG was won, as they often are, by reputation alone...and would probably be exhibit A in how meaningless that award is. He's a 36-year old outfielder...that can't hit.
  13. jkcarew
    I like the concept of #1. Go for it in 2020...and the outfield cavalry (Kiriloff, etc) is coming for 2021. It would be bold to say the least. And it could work. But.. ...you only addressed a relatively small portion of your pitching issues...meanwhile, you've created a second hole on the infield. And you've tied up a huge portion of available capital in doing so. To me, if you're going to do something as risky as this, it needs to directly address the biggest opportunity. And for the Twins, that's not an outfielder (even assuming Rosario can't improve on 2019), and it's not a number 2 or 3 starter...it's a stud at the top of the rotation. Does that mean you do nothing if that deal is not there? No. But it also doesn't mean you should feel the need to make a similarly huge/risky move where the payoff wouldn't be the same. That's what this deal would feel like to me.
  14. jkcarew
    Don't see how this (Ahmed) makes you better. Makes you better defensively, and worse offensively. The way the game is played now, offense is a must-have...infield defense is a nice-to-have. If you're trading prospect capital on anything other than pitching right now (and not sure why you would)...you'd be better off just getting a 1st or 3rd baseman who can rake. And literally any SS in major league baseball is a more likely trade candidate than Lindor. Just say'in.
  15. jkcarew
    I can see scenarios where it would make sense to extend every one of these guys... Maybe you trade (or plan on trying to trade) multiple outfield prospects; maybe you believe Sano/Buxton have what it takes to solve their lingering challenges, etc., etc. Of course, it won't play out that way. Among other things, it depends on what the player wants to do. And it's always worth remembering that extending any of these guys on anything close to reasonable terms (say, if you're not high on Rosario at this point) doesn't preclude trading them later...it could even help along those lines.
  16. jkcarew
    I'd like to see him hit at least like a good outfield prospect at the AA/AAA level before I'd even consider him as a regular first-baseman at the major-league level. Wouldn't think we'd see him before the end of the year unless he's mashing...AND at least one of Kepler/Buxton/Rosario are injured or gone. To me, he's either in your plans as a starter in 2021...or you trade him between now and next season's deadline.
  17. jkcarew
    Guaranteed to be unintended consequences. Still, might be the right move...we'll see how the tests play out. But, it's way down the list in priority of things that need to be tweaked, IMO.
  18. jkcarew
    Last we heard of Gonsalves, Wes Johnson was on a mission to add 2-3 MPH to his fastball. Within two weeks of those reports, the elbow fails. Then he’s cut loose. Hope he’s healthy. If so, my guess is the Mets have him focus on what the bigger issue was. That being his command and getting the ball anywhere close to where he wanted it.
  19. jkcarew
    It’s easy to imagine Graterol beginning the season in the rotation. But, if he does...it’s all but impossible to envision him finishing the season in the rotation, unless he’s shut down for an extended stretch. That’s the catch. If you want to ‘count’ Graterol as a starter in 2020, the best you can hope for is about 3/4 of a starter...probably something more like 2/3. Still, that might be the call to make if you feel he’s a starter in the long run. But, if so, I would want the FO to consider him a number 5 (ish) option at least for 2020...and invest on the top and middle accordingly.
  20. jkcarew
    You protect the top-end international guys. You just do. (The fact that they become rule-5 eligible at such a ridiculously early point in their development, is a topic unto itself.) But it's about the ceiling. And especially in the day of tanking teams and 26-man rosters, more of these types will be targeted. Has Javier played his way out of being defined as a 'top-end' guy? Not in my book...yet. But it's reasonable IMO if one draws a different conclusion.
  21. jkcarew
    Nobody's making EE a full-time first-baseman at this point...least of all a club like the Twins that has enough infield defense issues as it is.
  22. jkcarew
    Your catcher of the decade caught a grand total of about 300 games in the decade....less than half the games played during the 4 years he was ‘playing’ the position. Meanwhile, your honorable mention catcher caught about 150 games. That leaves about 1150 games in the decade caught by guys that don’t get a mention.
  23. jkcarew
    So, the Twins will splurge on a reason to play their second best hitter even less? Don’t know why anyone thinks Rocco is inclined to play catchers at first on their ‘off’ days..when he had the perfect opportunity to do so last year, and went out of his way to NOT do so. The ‘talk’ referred to of utilizing Garver at first more is coming from everywhere...except the Twins organization. Given the other priorities, the only way I’d get behind this move would be if a full-time conversion to first base happened for Garver.
  24. jkcarew
    Not going to have power with that swing. This year, with the juiced baseball, he projected to about 7...by far and away more than he has ever hit in a season. He’s young, but the BABiP comes from his willingness to slap the ball around the field. And if his BABiP settles at .310, he’s not going to have that much value...even if the HR’s ticked up a bit. In the meantime, I think he’s a legit BA and ball-in-play guy...on a lineup where that fits a need. And I think that’s the important part for now.
  25. jkcarew
    So, we got a guy that needs to be fixed. And he'll have to be fixed while on the major-league roster. Sure is good to be playing in the AL Central! (until the post-season, of course.)
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