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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    He's an enigma wrapped in a riddle, etc. etc. He has about 4 'starts' to every season....opening...then coming back from IL stints 1-3.... and he always seem to start warm, no matter the lead up.
  2. jkcarew
    That reminds me... It's early in the season. Not everyone is going to be at their best right out of the gate. But I have no doubt that things will get much better as we get deeper into the season.
  3. jkcarew
    I thought those were all going to be singles this year. No?
  4. jkcarew
    On pace to leave 4374 mean on base.
  5. jkcarew
    Don't you have to assume that Taylor is going to play more games in Center than Buxton? I think you do. And in that case, I don't think you can give the Twins that category. Now, if you added a DH category...and assumed that Twins would be 50% Buxton and 50% 'host of others'...would you give the Twins DH? Jose Abreu out of the division...a push with Cleveland and Josh Bell?
  6. jkcarew
    Agreed. All I'm saying is that going deeper into games is an approach that really isn't available until these guys get stretched out. That used to happen in spring training. Now, it happens over the first month of the season.
  7. jkcarew
    The Miguel Sano Memorial Best Shape Of His Life Award I always liked and defended Sano…but that sh-t’s funny! All I ask is that you remove the ‘Memorial’ part. I like to think that Miggy is alive and well, smiling and getting paid to play ball…somewhere.
  8. jkcarew
    I don’t see how we can possibly know or judge Correa’s leadership value. Players are not going to lift the veil, beyond obligatory sound-bites, when it comes to what goes on in the clubhouse, on the road, etc. All we can expect to get is a general feeling of whether a player is liked or respected…or not. But that really doesn’t have anything to do with leading…all leaders have to start out as ‘respected’, but not all ‘respected’ players lead or want to be considered a leader. You’d hope your leaders emerge from a small pool of the best players. So, in that sense, Correa would be a great candidate. But how ‘good’ or ‘natural’ he is in that role…is probably known to some, but speculation for us.
  9. jkcarew
    Good call on Celestino. He really needed to stand out from the get-go given the soon-to-be numbers crunch in OF. Didn’t get the opportunity. Let’s take a TBD on the FO being a spring winner. Deep doesn’t necessarily mean good. It just means you have a relatively high floor. This team stands a very real chance of being bad offensively. The team was middle of the pack last year, and there’s risk that with Arraez gone and Taylor playing most games in Center…not to mention questions regarding Polanco…that it gets worse, not better. Relying on too many established guys like Kepler and Gallo being “better than they were last year” doesn’t have a great track record of success. Nor does predicting more than a half season out of Buxton, no matter what position he plays. Could it all come together? Sure. But, let’s wait and see. The starting staff lifts the upside, but how much really?. How much better are we at the top of the rotation? A lot? I don’t see a meaningfully higher ceiling unless it comes from guys we didn’t even see this spring…like, Kirilloff becoming healthy and really good, or Lewis joining mid-season and being a star, or Buxton playing 100+ games in center with 500+ PA.
  10. jkcarew
    I think we might be challenged enough offensively this year that we will ‘need’ SOME production out of the catcher position. I’m cautiously optimistic on Jeffers. Can’t even put my finger on it. Last year the BB% was up and the K% was down despite the bad results with BABiP and SLG. This spring has been mildly encouraging for him. Age 25/26 with about 600 big league PA…if things were to start clicking, now might be the time. Anyway, we need to not be awful offensively here. And I don’t think we will be.
  11. jkcarew
    Man, would love to see Larnach turn a corner...would be huge. I hope Buxton's 8 PA (with 5 K) doesn't mean anything. Obviously, it doesn't mean he's going to K in 62% of his PA this year...but you'd think if they are going to make him an every-day DH to start the year, they would have peeled him out of his bubble enough to establish some live/game timing. Seems like he's always been a fast starter. This year should put that to the test.
  12. jkcarew
    Fun question. Optimistically, AA. Certainly no reason to move him higher this year. This puts him in position for a 2024 debut at age 21 pending performance and health, health, health.
  13. jkcarew
    "Lucky for him (and us), there's good reason to expect a big change in the season ahead." We'll see. I don't see how it can change much too early in the season, as I don't think one of these guys threw anything more than about 4 innings/80 pitches in any of their spring training outings. I don't think a 'big' change is coming. I think a change in approach is appropriate...but the staff isn't going to be averaging 7-inning starts, and of course, the starters need to hold up their end of the bargain in terms of efficiency.
  14. jkcarew
    I'll never get the argument that having a guy stand in front of 99 mph fastballs, swinging the bat, checking his swing, running the bases, slide, etc...is going to protect him from injury. Do you reduce the odds? With Buxton? How much? If management really believed this was significant, wouldn’t they have risked more than 8 PA at DH this spring (with 5 K)? As is, you're taking a guy who has huge value defensively, taking all that value away, and making him a DH where his value will be slightly (probably, but not definitely) above average in that role. What I would expect, is for Buxton to DH against lefties...that way, you're not losing as much OFFENSE in CF with Taylor. Against righties, I would expect him to play mostly CF (occasionally rest, occasionally DH) Instead, it appears we'll aim for mediocrity.
  15. jkcarew
    The fans are happier? Feel more appreciated? More connected to the team? Trust management more? Things like this matter on the margins...and margins are everything when you're running a business. I get that it doesn't mean more wins, and acknowledge the downside. But I would expect an ATTEMPT at more transparency. And no, I don't necessarily think the Twins are unique here. In fact, any team in the NBA would be a worse example.
  16. jkcarew
    But my point was there's no reason to sign him OTHER THAN additional injury worries (Polanco) of which we weren't aware at the time. You're not going to sit any of the guys I mentioned if they're healthy against lefties....that leaves DH (or 1B). Meanwhile, Solano's career OPS against lefties is 711...and he's 35 years old. This can't be part of a 'plan'. If it is...then I maintain it's not a good one.
  17. jkcarew
    I think they need to do a much better job of balancing what you suggest with being a little more transparent with the people who pay their salaries. Or, simply just leave yourself vulnerable to massive and legitimate criticism. Can’t have it both ways.
  18. jkcarew
    Which infielder are you sitting to hit Solano against left-handed pitching? Farmer, Correa, Polanco, or Miranda?
  19. jkcarew
    You’d think. Still, the Solano signing right at the start of camp is a pretty good smoking gun that they were worried from the get go. Zero reason for that signing otherwise. And it’s not like the organization has a sterling track record in communicating with the folks that pay the salaries in this regard.
  20. jkcarew
    But, that’s really not the point. We don’t care whether Joe Mauer made money for the owners, we care whether the contract was worth the value received and the opportunity cost over the life of the contract…in term of how it related to winning games. The commentator obviously doesn’t thing Mauer’s was. And he used it as an example. You might disagree. But, comment was relevant to the topic and not “uninformed”
  21. jkcarew
    Lee this spring in his first-ever look at what amounts to AAA+ pitching… 36 K%; 5 BB%; 474 OPS We might want to tap the brakes on the extension for now. I think we’ll have time.
  22. jkcarew
    IMO, there’s no such thing as a high-schooler with a “good track record of hitting”. Especially for a Midwestern kid. Does it work out sometimes. Certainly. But projecting the hit tool when all they’ve faced is HS competition, with the occasional showcase? More misses than hits, even way up at 5. I’d much rather have a top-end college hitter or top-end college pitcher at #5. Maybe, I’m blinded by the fact that I prefer another high-floor hitter or pitcher arriving quickly…while Buxton and Correa are more likely to be nearer their peek value…rather than the highest ceiling guy arriving significantly later.
  23. jkcarew
    As far as 2023 is concerned, there is no depth at catcher. Zero. Nada. If Vasquez or Jeffers get hurt, we’re almost guaranteed to give significant innings of negative WAR at the position. Even if they’re healthy all year, there’s a significant chance this could be the case. It’s such an immense organizational black hole, that the large black hole called first base easily fits inside it.
  24. jkcarew
    ?? Do hard core football fans watch every preseason game…or the Pro Bowl (when it was played)? Certainly not. The WBC consists of a series of exhibition games. Absolutely no conclusions can be drawn from results other than “a lot of countries have a lot of very good players”. Can I ‘enjoy’ kicking back and watching a game or two? Absolutely. Am I going to engage over a series of 20 games and care about results? Absolutely not.
  25. jkcarew
    Couldn’t agree more. It’s a clown show of panic and desperation. The logic…let’s reward a league full of players who hit 220 because of their complete and total commitment to swings optimized for power…let’s let them continue with that one tool in the toolbox approach, but artificially lift their batting averages to 230, in the name of a couple of extra baserunners 95% of whom won’t even think of attempting to run. It’s interesting to note that all these rule changes go in this year, and what does Nick Gordon show up talking about for 2023? Thin, fast, slap-hitting Nick Gordon…does he show up taking about putting more balls in play or being more aggressive on the base baths? No. He shows up announcing to the world that he’s stronger and going to hit more home runs. These shift and base running rules are not going to change anything…in fact they’ll be counterproductive…as long as number 9 hitters are developed to, and capable of, hitting 20+ homeruns a year. They’re just not.
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