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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    The summary for our first round draft pick (and #7 prospect) needs to be changed from "Did Not Play" to "Seldom Plays" or even "Never Plays" or "Injured", maybe?
  2. jkcarew
    I'm not outraged...but it's not helping the quality of the game...in case this was a deliberate act, it was the wrong one, IMO. I do wonder, however...is this significant enough to be resulting in 'false' evaluations of players at the AAA and MLB level? Yes, we're getting false results in absolute terms, but I'm talking about relative terms. Is there a player (or type/profile) out there that is benefiting dis-proportionally from this? If the 2020 ball immediately goes back to 'average' in terms of drag...are there certain players that immediately become materially less valuable relative to average/replacement? I wonder if this type of possibility is even on FO radars?
  3. jkcarew
    Reports of the demise of the Cleveland Indians were premature. They have the exact same record at the break that they had last year...when they went on to win 91 games. But IMO, the relevant target still should not be Cleveland...the Twins are still in a position to be able to win the division by going something like 38-35 in the second half. The target/objective should be being relevant in a post-season series against the likes of NYY, Astros, a hot Red Sox club, etc.
  4. jkcarew
    I think the season so far is a sum of lots of pleasant surprises that are (relatively) small. I think that's implicit in the Thrylos post above. Lots of players...almost all players...improving on recent norms. Regarding Buxton: "As a guy who lifts the ball at a higher rate than anyone else on the team, and has otherworldly speed, I'd expect a higher BABIP for Buxton than his current .302" How would the fact that Buxton's putting more balls in the air play with Buxton's speed to raise his BABiP? Buxton's BABiP is slightly down this year probably for two reasons...one, he's hitting the ball in the air more, specifically on the infield, and two, he's swinging earlier in the count (which is helping keep the K% down, but can lead to some softer contact as you try to cover the entire plate on almost every pitch you see). But I agree with the final conclusion in that I think Buxton is showing signs of more in the tank. But I think the primary drivers will be growth in BB% and also harder contact as he gets more confident with the new him.
  5. jkcarew
    Wander Javier is broke. To be expected, really, when you're 18, then don't play a game for two years, then are thrown into a higher level than when you last played. Kinda a testament to what the Twins think of Javier that they started him off in Cedar Rapids under those circumstances. Looks like that might have been a mistake, though. Meanwhile, Jaylin Davis. Hard to know what to make of his first 85 AAA PA's. The SLG is off the charts, but then again, it's the International League where the parks are pretty obviously too small for the juiced ball. Then again, he's kept a cap on the K% so far. Could we have another small college, low-ish draft pick, (relatively) late bloomer...Garver style...here? We can hope.
  6. jkcarew
    Horrible play by Buxton. If you tag there, you jog down the base-path a few feet to observe the flight of the ball. If it's airmailed in the direction of home, you break to 3rd in a 'delayed' fashion. You might be safe, but if you're out, the catcher (or a deep cutoff player) is the one throwing you out, and the run scores. If you want to be 'aggressive', that's how you do it on that play. With one out and the ball hit where it was and another runner tagging from 3rd, you never...under any circumstances...just put your head down and sprint as fast as you can to third and get yourself thrown out. Especially in a tight game where runs are hard to come by. That, obviously, made it an even stranger decision. Having said that, mistakes and weird stuff happen. The bigger problem recently has been the lack of consistency with the offense. It's probably a safe bet that, even with needed improvements, pitching overall for the Twins is going to be 'just ok'. The offense has to be better than that to continue the ride.
  7. jkcarew
    Wondering when the leg kick is going to go...still waiting. Even on his 35-hopper pulled through the whole, the leg kick seemed mis-timed and a hindrance, but quick hips and hands bailed him out. Meanwhile, he really does glide around out there...really smooth and athletic looking. Easy to see why he's a top prospect. We'll just have to wait a bit to see how the bat comes around.
  8. jkcarew
    Cavaco has played sparingly. Been removed in the middle of games on two different occasions already...and has been MIA for several games since the last instance. Injured right out of the gate?
  9. jkcarew
    Took his time trying to decide, then took only one. Left the rest for the next guy.
  10. jkcarew
    Article refers to Berrios as ‘ace’. Twins are now 1-4 in the last 5 games started by their ace. There comes a time when a team is struggling, where the ace has to be better than good...or in today’s case, better than passable. Berrios certainly isn’t part of the problem...but, as our ace, he’s had a couple of opportunities recently to serve as the solution...and hasn’t done so.
  11. jkcarew
    I would have gone with "Twins Refuse to Win Two in a Row"
  12. jkcarew
    Agree he seems to be ok with the the K/SwStr numbers for now. It's the innings pitched number where he doesn't stack up so well (even relative to minor league/prospect starter standards)....and that's a mighty important number for starting prospects. At best, Graterol appears to be quite a ways away from showing ability or readiness for a major-league starter workload. Is it just me, or does anyone else see the parallels with Fernando Romero? Short, right-handed power pitchers who struggled in the minors to log innings and finish seasons. Graterol is a little further along at the same age as was Romero, but still, it sure seems he's trending towards reliever.
  13. jkcarew
    I'll admit that watching the very top of this list, so far this year, has been a little like watching paint dry. But that's why I love the top-20 and the top-40 lists that the staff puts together. It's always easy to find several examples of guys over-performing to get excited about. To that end... Happy 25th birthday to Jaylin Davis! I love seeing guys like this...getting a little long in the tooth (prospect-wise)...taking significant steps, and starting to knock on the door of realizing their dream...if not with the Twins, maybe as a minor-league FA with another team, etc.
  14. jkcarew
    Patience continues to be warranted with Sano. You just don't give up on that kind of power without trying everything. I like Sano, but from the outside looking in, it doesn't seem like he's ever made adjustments. If he does, or if he can, he'll be very useful. If he can't, he won't. Maybe the last 1-2 weeks are a sign of something more than just getting some timing back? Maybe these are the early signs that he's learning how to make those adjustments? We'll see.
  15. jkcarew
    For 2-3 weeks now, the Twins are playing about like I thought they would heading into the year. Offense dangerous but inconsistent, defense good in the outfield, poor-to-fair in the infield, starting pitching fair-to-decent, bullpen poor-to-fair. (Also, the breaks have gone the other way recently, losing some close games that could have gone either way.) But, the first 65 games happened. I don't see the offense tanking...too many of the younger guys seem to have taken that next step, and the depth is better than anticipated. If the pitching bounces back and/or gets upgraded, I think the club's fine. Rocco's made some mistakes, but he's been aggressive and consistent with the rest/workload (and use of IL) for key pitchers and position players...we could see that pay off in the second half.
  16. jkcarew
    Graterol slides down some for me. 5 years in and he’s on pace to having only one year with anything even close to 100 innings. He might be a regular member of a major league starting rotation some day...he’s just turning 21...but he’ll need to show real evidence that’s realistic at some point.
  17. jkcarew
    Absolutely!
  18. jkcarew
    Lewis played SS his senior year. Meanwhile, Cavaco played multiple positions, primarily 3rd...and, by all reports, rarely if ever SS. Not that I am trying to represent any of that as definitive. But the point stands...based on what people (scouts) who saw them play at the same stage had to say, the prospect of Cavaco sticking at SS seems materially lower than what the information available at the time had to say about Lewis's chances.
  19. jkcarew
    I guess you have to highly rank a prospect recently drafted as early as Cavaco was. But, I really don't see the Lewis parallels. Cavaco popped late, and based primarily on the power tool. He didn't even play SS on his high school team...and it's really hard to even find a scouting report on him that even mentions anything other than 3rd base. Nobody's saying he has Lewis's speed, or even that his speed is sure to be an outstanding tool at the major-league level. He seems to be a lottery ticket type of pick...albeit, where the jackpot is Kris Bryant. I'd have him a bit lower out of the gate.
  20. jkcarew
    I’d call that an unrealistic ceiling.
  21. jkcarew
    When Arraez’s BABiP normalizes...and it will normalize a lot...we’ll probably have a high BA major leaguer with almost zero power, average on the bases, and adequate defense at second. So kind of high floor, low ceiling at this point. The challenge will be that I think he would have more value as a Escobar/Gonzalez/Adrianza type long term, but don’t see that level of defensive skill. He’s 22, and in the majors...I’d have him ranked a little higher.
  22. jkcarew
    With the lineup the Twins trotted out there, the tired bodies, etc....kind of felt like we’d need a dominant performance from Berrios. Didn’t get one. The errors hurt, but 8 swinging strikes in 105 pitches, tons of hittable pitches, two HR, speak for themselves...and to a White Sox lineup that, while not terrible, still falls well below average. Don’t know if I’d give my ‘ace’ bonus points for surviving into the 8th against the White Sox, nevertheless he didn’t fail in that regard. Maybe the Twins capitalize on that this weekend.
  23. jkcarew
    Altuve actually showed considerably more power (and speed) in the minors than has Arraez. (30 HR to 6, both in about 1600 PA). And with the current stance/swing/approach that Arraez employs, I don't think significant power is in the offing. Arraez is a difficult comp...he's low SLG, high OBP (relative to other good/very good hitters). And the OBP will come from a high BA...more so than a ridiculously high BB rate. When you find a guy like this in history, he tends to have a speed profile...but that's not Arraez, either. Offensively, maybe Arraez's ceiling would feel a bit like Wade Boggs floor? (Emphasis on ceiling vs floor here ). 1990 Boggs was 302/386/418 with 6 HR and negligible SB. Mix in a few more base hits and a few less walks....and also playing a more valuable defensive position.
  24. jkcarew
    FWIW...I interpreted (assumed) those comments to refer to a shot (or shots) that were part of a rest/recovery regimen...not continuing or part of a game-prep routine. I would hope that's the case. I guess we'll see...I'll panic next time I see him K 3+ times in a game ...that's what happened immediately prior to this last hiatus.
  25. jkcarew
    Good article. Conclusion: Perez is who he is. Wes Johnson and the Twins staff (or any staff) are not capable of anything other than providing information and ideas that can make differences on the margins. (Yes, margins matter in MLB.) But, if a guy can consistently throw multiple major-league-quality pitches where he wants to, he's going to be consistently good. If he can't, he's not. A couple of MPH and pitch sequencing are drops to the ocean that is command. And while Perez is currently regressing a bit, Pineda seems to be moving upward toward his 'norm'.
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