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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    I feel bad for Gibson, he pitched out of the jam but Escobar completely misplayed what should have been a relatively easy pop out.
  2. twins_89
    If Dozier has a second half anywhere close to what he's done in the last couple of years, I'll be more than happy to give him a qualifying offer. If he accepts, the one year deal isn't going to hurt the club and they will still have the option to trade him at next year's trade deadline. If he declines, the Twins will get a fairly good compensation pick (which I would be happy with as well). To make a trade worthwhile, the value of the package coming back would have to match a 1st round compensation pick plus the value of Dozier for the rest of the season.
  3. twins_89
    The Indians look like they have decided to try to close the gap with the other AL playoff teams. Unfortunately, this means the odds of the Twins catching them in the standings went from long shot to virtually no chance.
  4. twins_89
    I have little doubt Jay will get a chance as a reliever in the majors, probably next season (with an outside chance of a September call-up this year). Stewart is more questionable. I'm moderately optimistic about his chances due to his drastically improved SO/9 and SO/BB ratio this season (though it isn't really reflected in his ERA). For the first time he's striking out over a batter an inning and a 3.3 SO/BB is fairly good as well. At the end of last season I'd mostly written Kohl off, but he's given me a reason to hope again.
  5. twins_89
    One other point of note is that Dozier hasn't been particularly lucky at the plate. Dozier's BABIP of .251 this year is 23 points lower than his career average and almost 50 points lower than last season. With a career average BABIP, Dozier's slash line would be almost exactly in line with his number pre-All Star break the last 2 seasons.
  6. twins_89
    I'd be very comfortable offering Esobar a qualifying offer. If he accepts the Twins get a valuable guy who can fill in at multiple positions on a one year contract (overpaying for one season doesn't hurt the team much if at all). If he declines Minnesota gets a compensatory draft pick. I wouldn't consider any trade offers that have less value than the potential pick (a fangraphs article I saw valued a pick in the 30-40 range around 2.5 WAR pre-FA) plus the value of having Escobar for the rest of this season (extrapolates to around 0.9 WAR not counting playoffs). Based on fangraphs research, a value of 3.4 WAR should be worth a 50 grade hitter or a 55 grade pitcher (based on fangraphs prospect ratings). As an example, in a deal with the Brewers that would be Tristen Lutz or Corbin Burnes.
  7. twins_89
    I'm hoping to see both Buxton and Sano back with the Twins for the last 50 or so games (back up shortly after the trade deadline). I'm also hoping that the time in the minors gets them both on track so that they can build some momentum going into the off-season.
  8. twins_89
    Between Buxton's struggles/injuries and Cave's success, I'm starting to think it might be a while before we see Byron again.
  9. twins_89
    What I'd like to see for the rest of the season is some extended chances for a number of pitchers at AAA. The Twins need to trade Lynn and give a shot to Romero, Mejia, Gonsalves, Sledgers, and Littell where they get at least get 5-10 starts before being sent back down. Similarly in the bullpen I'd trade Rodney and Duke (and waive Belisle) and give real month long opportunities to May, Busenitz, Curtis, Duffey, Moya, and Bard.
  10. twins_89
    Unless the Twins get a better offer for Dozier than is likely, I suspect the best course would be to keep him. If Dozier has a huge second half like in previous years, he might get back to a point where the qualifying offer makes sense which is probably the best possible outcome at this point. As for the rest of the trade options, I'd keep Odorizzi, Gibson, and Escobar (with the intent of extending a qualifying offer). I'd look to trade Lynn, Rodney, Morrison (more likely to be waived), and Duke.
  11. twins_89
    My guess is Busenizt comes up for tomorrow's game and then Mejia is added later to fill Romero's spot in the rotation (with Belisle waived).
  12. twins_89
    I have no idea how Belisle has a roster spot when the Twins have Busenitz, Curtiss, Duffy, Bard, Anderson, and Moya at AAA.
  13. twins_89
    Hard to compete when 8 of the team's 12 position players have a sub .700 OPS. The lineup the Twins put on the field tonight wouldn't even be considered a good minor league batting order.
  14. twins_89
    That's a brutal lineup. The Twins batting order only has 1 hitter with an OPS over .730 with 5 guys under .700. It doesn't matter how much better the pitching is this year when the lineup is this bad.
  15. twins_89
    I'm more than a little surprised that a player of Herrera's caliber got traded this early, especially for a prospect package that isn't particularly strong. Maybe there's hope that the Twins could get a guy like Wilson Ramos sooner than expected (and without giving up our top prospects).
  16. twins_89
    I wish there were moves the Twins could make to turn things around, unfortunately there is almost nothing they can do in the next few weeks. There just isn't much of a market to add talent through trade until closer to the deadline and we don't have any prospects who look like they would be a significant improvement if called up. The fact is, the team just isn't going to succeed when over half of the position players are performing well below expectations. About all the Twins can do is try to stay close enough to Cleveland to justify adding some talent at the trade deadline (catcher and a competent RH hitting outfielder are the glaring needs). Couple an addition or two with guys coming back (Santana, Polanco, May) or figuring things out (Sano, Buxton, Morrison, Dozier) and we might be able to make a run at the Indians in the second half.
  17. twins_89
    I'm not surprised that Sano was optioned, the only real interesting thing was that it was to Fort Myers. If Sano gets moved to Rochester in the fairly near future the AAA team could have a lineup that includes Polanco, Gordon, Sano, Rooker (looks close to a promotion), Buxton, and Wade. That's basically half of the position players I'd hoped would make up the 2019 roster.
  18. twins_89
    Odorizzi really needs to improve his approach when he gets ahead in the count. There's been 4-5 times tonight he's been up 0-2 or 1-2 and then doesn't even come close to the strike zone until the count is full.
  19. twins_89
    With a recurrence of his concussion symptoms it sounds like Mauer won't be back anytime soon. By the time he might be able to give it another try, the Twins could be effectively out of the playoff race, at which point you'd have to question if it's worth coming back at all (especially if he's thinking about retiring after the season).
  20. twins_89
    My guess is the next 3 weeks could be the deciding stretch on whether the Twins go into sell mode. If at the end of the second Cleveland series we are over 10 games back I'd hope the front office makes guys available. If the Twins sell, I see Lynn and Duke as almost sure to go. Santana might also be moved if he's back and pitching well by the trade deadline. I think we'll make Dozier available, but I'm not sure any team will offer enough to make it worthwhile (would need to make up for the draft pick we'd get from making him a qualifying offer). Morrison and Rodney could also be potential trade candidates, though they fall more into the category of it would take a good offer since the Twins don't need to move them and they could be useful next season. Lastly, I would like to see the team work out an extension with Escobar to be their 3B for the next couple of years (with Sano moving to 1B).
  21. twins_89
    I truly hope Mauer has a relatively speedy and problem free recovery, but I'm not optimistic about his performance the rest of the year (or next season if he doesn't retire). As we've seen with both Mauer and Morneau, concussion issues can significantly degrade a player's capability. It took Mauer over 2 years to get back a semblance of his pre-concussion abilities after 2013. I hope we'll get to see more games with a capable and productive Mauer in a Twins uniform, but I won't be surprised if this signals that the end of the road is fast approaching for Joe.
  22. twins_89
    The Twins are pretty much out of the wild card race and are one hot stretch from Cleveland from being out of the playoff picture altogether. I'd guess Minnesota holds off on selling in the short term, but I think there is a pretty high chance they will put multiple guys on the block before the trade deadline.
  23. twins_89
    If the concussion like symptoms that Mauer is having look like they might keep him out for an extended stretch I could see Ramirez as being a good option (on a minimum contract, not claimed off waivers).
  24. twins_89
    I feel bad for Romero, both of the 2 runs he gave up were preventable (one resulted from a stolen base where Garver dropped the ball, and the second only happened due to a wild pitch that Garver couldn't snag).
  25. twins_89
    Paxton really fooling Twins hitters tonight. Of his 11 strikeouts, 8 have been on swings at pitches out of the strike zone.
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