Twins Prospect Hot Sheet, August 25, 2025: Kyler Fedko Entering Top Prospect Territory

51 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I love these write ups.  I just wish I saw minor league success translate to MLB success in the Twins organization.

Keaschall doesn’t count?

51 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

So far he is great - Lewis was the first 100 ABs too and Julien looked like he would be good and so did Miranda.  If Luke continues I will be delighted - is one enough?

What if he continues, and Lee continues to improve, then we see what Jenkins Culpepper Rodriguez and Gonzalez can do?

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I love these write ups.  I just wish I saw minor league success translate to MLB success in the Twins organization.

Twins have very few hitting prospects if you look at the stats the right way.  So minor league success almost always won't translate.  Sorry.  The other day I list two actual hitting prospects (Jenkins, Keaschall), and a very few others with a chance (Culpepper, Gonzalez, Tait).  So expect two and don't be surprised with three.  It's a sad situation.  Shouldn't be closing your eyes and crossing your fingers; the numbers (K rate) tell the story.  High Avg/OBP/Slg is very misleading.  Also listed EmRod as someone with a very low chance.

4 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins have very few hitting prospects if you look at the stats the right way.  So minor league success almost always won't translate.  Sorry.  The other day I list two actual hitting prospects (Jenkins, Keaschall), and a very few others with a chance (Culpepper, Gonzalez, Tait).  So expect two and don't be surprised with three.  It's a sad situation.  Shouldn't be closing your eyes and crossing your fingers; the numbers (K rate) tell the story.  High Avg/OBP/Slg is very misleading.  Also listed EmRod as someone with a very low chance.

Your odds would different than mine. 
 

Jenkins, Keaschall 75%+

Culpepper, Gonzalez E-Rod between 50-75%

You have a host of other players that would be in the  25-50% range

Winokur, Tait, Houston, Jimenez, Amick, Debarge Young, Mendez Debarge

Y we are going to have some prospects hit. 

Fully aboard the #FreeFedko train! Let the kid rock RF for 30 games and let's see what he can do.  Not sure why the GM cares about service time, they will be traded if any good before they hit last year of arbitration 

4 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins have very few hitting prospects if you look at the stats the right way.  So minor league success almost always won't translate.  Sorry.  The other day I list two actual hitting prospects (Jenkins, Keaschall), and a very few others with a chance (Culpepper, Gonzalez, Tait).  So expect two and don't be surprised with three.  It's a sad situation.  Shouldn't be closing your eyes and crossing your fingers; the numbers (K rate) tell the story.  High Avg/OBP/Slg is very misleading.  Also listed EmRod as someone with a very low chance.

So the only stat that matters for prospects now is K-rate? I have trouble taking "analysis" seriously that only looks at 1 number to evaluate a prospect's hitting potential.

Fedko is unquestionably the hottest of hot right now and has been doing a great job this season. I've still got questions about him, because until this season his power has been inconsistent and he's never really hit for average before, so you have to worry about his contact rates. It's a small sample so far in Saint Paul, but you never know: he may be a late bloomer who figured something out. Saw him play a little CF the other day and I think his future is in a corner, but he wasn't a butcher there.

Langenberg looking very good lately. but all of a sudden who is this Garrett Horn? Wow! Sure, he's only at Cedar Rapids now, but those are eye-popping stats!

Trading free agent Coulombe for Horn looks like a good trade. While Horn has issued too many walks with Cedar Rapids, his command with his previous organization was excellent, with lots of strikeouts and few walks. The Twins need to hit the jackpot on a least three of these trades of Rojas, Abel, Bradley and Horn. Maybe some others will emerge too. 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You have to question any "analysis" that only looks at stats, let alone 1 stat. It's good to know that Aaron Judge fella has no chance as a college hitter with a 25.3% k rate in A+ ball. 25% in AA. 28.5 and 23.9% in AAA. Poor guy is doomed. 

Don't even get me started on Acuna Jr. 31.7% k rate in A+ ball! Just cut him. Only got it down to 24.8 in AAA. Braves don't need him, he'll be awful. 

There was catcher out of Florida State I was hoping the Twins could get. Silly nickname. Great glove and I thought he may hit a little, but 29.6% k rate in AA and 23.3 in AAA. Cal Raleigh is toast, I'm sure.

Obviously, striking out less is better. But the idea that guys have no chance if they're K'ing in the minors is wild. I just named 3 of the best hitters in baseball who all had some pretty significant K rates. There's so much more to evaluating prospects.

People get pretty crazy with prospect love around here (including me), and are currently expecting way too much out of the system. That's a pretty constant state of affairs, though. Talk of "log jams" and "redundant prospects" is always wrong. There's no such things because prospects fail too often. But just looking at k rates and saying "these guys are doomed, move on" is crazy talk. Or Aaron Judge is severely over paid.

Bring back Joey Gallo, good glove and who cares about his K rate.

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, that's not at all what I said. Nobody said k rate doesn't matter at all. What we said was that judging a prospect entirely by their k rate is not a good strategy. Thanks, though.

     I see your point, but IF they have trouble at AAA, it does make the player a bit of a  - let's hope and see.

     I personally, would put glove talent above K rate for concern, although this counts more at catcher and short stop.

9 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins have very few hitting prospects if you look at the stats the right way.  

Translation: My way. Stopped reading at that point. I'm sure it says something like all the hitters k too much, and Jenkins is the only guy who MIGHT make it but even he is having an average year, or something close. 😂 Rinse and repeat, here and everywhere else he posts.

21 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Keaschall doesn’t count?

in 103 plate appearances he has been great (or better) but if that is all you can come up with doesn't that seem more like the old blind squirrel nut analogy? 

18 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

What if he continues, and Lee continues to improve, then we see what Jenkins Culpepper Rodriguez and Gonzalez can do?

What ifs' Rooker, Gordon, Lewis, AK, Larnach, Javier, Cavaco, Celestino, Sabato, Urbina, Miller, Martin, Miranda, Julien, Schobel, Wallner, Lee, Jenkins, Rodriquez, Culpepper Erod, Jeffers (Oh, there is a good one) , Keaschall

These are all guys that have been top 10 MN Twins prospects since 2018. That is 18 guys (excluding Rooker and Keaschall),  There are some that are to young to know about yet (Erod, Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodrqiquez), and a couple that still might turn out (Lewis/Lee) , and a maybe Wallner. That is not good, so to automatically say the next group is like the earlier teens group. (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco) while possible is shooting pretty high. (and I really, really, really hope you are right) but....

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

in 103 plate appearances he has been great (or better) but if that is all you can come up with doesn't that seem more like the old blind squirrel nut analogy? 

You have him and Lee at a .7 WAR in the last month in a half.   8 WAR for Jeffers.  Wallner 5 WAR and Lewis 4 WAR.  Kepler 20 WAR (17.5 while they were in charge)  Polanco  20 WAR (16.5 while Falvey and Baldelli in charge).   No they have been decent at developing talent, but struggled a bit with the bats in the last few years.  We have higher prospects with a better drafting philosophy post 2021.   

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What ifs' Rooker, Gordon, Lewis, AK, Larnach, Javier, Cavaco, Celestino, Sabato, Urbina, Miller, Martin, Miranda, Julien, Schobel, Wallner, Lee, Jenkins, Rodriquez, Culpepper Erod, Jeffers (Oh, there is a good one) , Keaschall

These are all guys that have been top 10 MN Twins prospects since 2018. That is 18 guys (excluding Rooker and Keaschall),  There are some that are to young to know about yet (Erod, Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodrqiquez), and a couple that still might turn out (Lewis/Lee) , and a maybe Wallner. That is not good, so to automatically say the next group is like the earlier teens group. (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco) while possible is shooting pretty high. (and I really, really, really hope you are right) but....

Lewis 4 WAR, Larnach 3 WAR Wallner 5 WAR but yes I understand the frustration.   Had 1 or 2 of those become stars most likely we don't hear as much commotion.  But they haven't.  So we will see if they can show progress with Lee and Keaschall. 

15 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Lewis 4 WAR, Larnach 3 WAR Wallner 5 WAR but yes I understand the frustration.   Had 1 or 2 of those become stars most likely we don't hear as much commotion.  But they haven't.  So we will see if they can show progress with Lee and Keaschall. 

Congrats Wallner in 3+ plus years has 5.2 WAR (lots of that has come when the Twins were out of it games/season) , Larnach has 3.2 in 5 years, 7.9 for Jeffers in 5+ years and Lewis in 3.8 in 4 years (sure they all have been half years). Don't forget Julien and Miranda are on the plus side of WAR as well. I don't think you are making the case you think you are.

I have admitted they have probably been better than average in getting guys that make the majors (which is no small feat) but something then holds them back, talent? development? what ever it is has caused this team to be what it is for 4 of the last 5 years. If you are only developing average major league players from your system, you need to supplement that with something besides the likes of France, Gallo, Bride, Gasper, Margo, Taylor, Urshela' and even Castro and Santana's of the world. (That is where they have failed as well)

Just an FYI, Kepler and Polanco where on the Twins before this FO arrived, Polanco had 2 really good years and decent year in 7 years with this FO, and Kepler the same but in 8. 

As for Lee he turns 25 in February, which isn't old but most guys that turn out have established themselves at this age, he still has 2 Pre-Arb years left that good. Lewis is 26 and turns 27 in June, which should be his prime, absolutely both can become 3+ or higher WAR players. He is entering Arb 2 next year (and has two left after that) but is already making 1.6 so he is getting more expensive (like Larnach) and could be pricing himself out of job if he isn't performing.

Keaschall only just turned 23, so he plays all most all of next year at 23 (which is great) and is looking like the real deal, it is only 108 plate appearances so fingers crossed he keeps it up after some exposure and bucks the trend of just about every position prospect the Twins have ran out there.