Seth's Preliminary Top 30 Twins Prospect Rankings

Expect this was a lot more work than normal, Seth, considering all the new players picked up last July.  Three of your top 15 and five of 25 was a great infusion of talent.  And that doesn't include Severino and Pearson who were also new to the system last year.

After missing most of his 17 year old year in the DSL and all of last year, I would have moved Javier down a bit, probably flipping him with Thorpe who I view as the fourth best player in the system.  I am of the opinion, and I may be wrong, that Gordon isn't going to be anything more than a utility infielder or maybe even a AAAA guy.  So I would have dropped him out of the top 10 after his bad second half in 2017 and big disappointment this year.  Like wise would have dropped Gonsalves a few slots and probably wouldn't have included Wade in the Top 30 as I doubt he will get added to the 40-man this year.

Three players in your last group of five that I would have higher are Jax, Balazovic and Rortvedt.  Defensive catchers that can hold their own at the plate are hard to find and all indidations are Rortvedt is one of them.  

But I know that you have a lot more information about these guys than any of us making your Top 30 one everyone needs to use as a blueprint.

I think Wander Javier is too high. I know he's young and has impressive tools, but he's also coming off a big injury and hasn't played any full-season baseball yet. Too much projection and uncertainty for me to have him all the way up at #4.

I'd probably argue the most for Ben Rortvedt, who showed real improvement at the plate this year, with solid hitting not just at Cedar Rapids but also after his promotion to Ft. Myers. It looks like someone who will stick at catcher and if he's really improved his hit tool, then he's a much better prospect than #29. Frankly, I'm more excited about Rortvedt than I am Blankenhorn at this point.

I suspect it's going to be a hard list this year with a lot of guys bunched around each other. No questions on who the top 3 are in my mind, and Seth has it nailed here. There's a really strong group coming through out of Ft. Myers right now! I wish I was feeling as positive about the guys who are closer to coming out of Rochester; several of those fellows sitting 6-10 have shown some definite question marks now that's they're in the top levels that they need to iron out if they're going to be star potential players and consistent starters, rather than reserves.

I get that Gordon is unlikely to be a big star, but I'm hoping he can be Greg Gagne for a while.  That would be ok with me.  I would like that regular top 10 in Def-WAR that Gagne had, but I'd rather have the two WS titles.

I assume that Romero is no longer considered a prospect?  I know he got some starts last year but so did Gonsalves?  Just curious, I am also assuming that Romero will most likely be a top candidate to grab one of the last spots in the rotation?

Why still the large gap between Gonsalves and Stewart?  We know Gonsalves has had the better minor-league career to date.  But so MUCH better that we would ignore Stewart's initial promise, his youth (actually a few months younger than Gonsalves), not to mention our own eyes when watching how the two responded to major league hitters this fall?  I'd probably have Gonsalves lower and Stewart a bit higher...but might have Gonsalves rated slightly ahead based on his potential for more swings and misses if he ever develops the ability to get ahead major-league batters....which is a pretty big if at this point.

Unless the reports of Rortvedt looking solid defensively have been premature/false...he's too low.

What about Michael Helman?

Wow you need to swap Wells and Alcala. Alcala had a near 6 ERA and a 1.85 whip and he’s 4 spots higher?? Wells was better last year than literally everyone in the organization. Dude really is underrated. And then they robbed him of Pitcher of the Year for Thorpe who was good but not great.

Alex Kirilloff missed an entire season as well, ,came back just fine... He hadn't played any full-season baseball yet either. When they're that young, it's obviously all about the talent tools and upside, but Javier's tools are incredible. 

 

I would also say that I think that the difference between 4 and maybe 14 is all a matter of opinion. 

To your credit, you did rank Kirilloff #5 going into last year coming off a significant injury.

Part of my concern is I'm worried that coming back from the shoulder injury is actually harder for a baseball player than Tommy John on a hitter.

It's interesting to hear that you think the talent level is tightly bunched with the next ten guys after the top 3 (who I think everyone serious about it would say are the twins top 3, really). That's a pretty good sign for the system.

I'm guessing that I will rank Tyler Wells significantly higher than any of the national prospect rankers... And, I would guess that I rank Alcala lower than all of the national prospect rankers will. 

 

I wouldn't make too much of Alcala's ERA during his time with the Twins at the end of the season. Dude throws 95-100 mph with the makings of secondary pitches. I personally think he'll be a reliever, and a dominant one, which is why I rank him a little lower for now. 

 

Wells had a phenomenal season, ,no doubt. But the tools aren't as highly considered as Alcala's. Fastball is more in the low 90s. That said, I like him because he does have better secondary pitches at this point. I also think that Wells can be a starting pitcher, or is more likely to be a starting pitcher, ,than Alcala. 

 

So yeah, I'll stand by the first paragraph I wrote here. To be honest, I was sure there would be far more comments about how low I rank Alcala. Many will have him in the Top 10. 

Those who have Alcala in the top 10 are just in love with the radar gun. I watched him a few times. Poor control, ball is visible at all points of the windup, secondary were blah. Wasn’t impressed. But hey, he throws hard. 

What struck me as I studied this list:

A common narrative all this past season has been that "the next wave" of real talent is buried in the low minors. But when I look at the list, I see that a third of the players on it have either had their first taste of MLB or are champing at the bit, this despite the fact that Romero and a couple others who might otherwise make the Top 30 have graduated, and maybe more importantly, the list excludes several who are good enough to make the team or at least get auditions, guys like DeJong, Moya, Curtiss, Vasquez, Busenitz, Slegers, etc. Not good enough to make a Top 40 but good enough to earn a spot, at least temporarliy, on a 25-man roster is a fairly solid indicator of depth, I think.

The third (10) who are on the cusp (yes, many won't cut the mustard): Gonsalves, Gordon, Thorpe, Rooker, Littell, Wade, Wells, Arraez, Raley, and Stewart. At it's most wildly optimistic, this group represents a third of a major league roster. Granted, not a one of these prospects is even making BA's Top 50 let alone its Top 100. In my view however, it represents a small opportunity to build surpluses that can be traded off. For example, maybe we get lucky and Odor Easy fetches something at the deadline and Thorpe is an upgrade, or Rooker kills it and makes Austin an expendable piece. If five of these guys can replace a roster placeholder and provide incremental value and thereby allow the organization to further stock the system, that could be impactful down the road.

Half (15) of the prospects should be peeking up from AA at the big club roster by season's end to see where they fit. A couple could even merit a call-up in 2019. And this is a truly exciting list: Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach, Badoo, Enlow, Alcola, Jeffers, Miranda, Maciel, Blankenhorn, Jax, Colina, Rortvedt, and Pearson in descending order of course. If just five of these guys are legit, this roster improves a ton by 2020.

So only 5 of the 30 are really "years away": Javier, Duran, Celestino, Severino, and Balezovic. And we should remember that there are probably ten prospects already under signature in the deepest minors ready to be included. Hope the wonder boys keep the enertia going.

Fun list, Seth, thank you.

I’m looking at this list and think 25 will make the majors in some capacity either with the Twins or someone else which gives the Twins hope as well as trade depth and half if the next 10 should too. Whew! And

Alex Kirilloff missed an entire season as well, ,came back just fine... He hadn't played any full-season baseball yet either. When they're that young, it's obviously all about the talent tools and upside, but Javier's tools are incredible. 

 

I would also say that I think that the difference between 4 and maybe 14 is all a matter of opinion. 

Seth, didn't Javier injure and have surgery on his non-throwing shoulder if I remember correctly?

Also, have you heard any news about how his rehab is progressing or if he has even started it yet?

Is it possible Bailey Ober could have snuck into the back end of the top 30 if he hadn't got injured?  Was pitching at a really high level when he went down.

If Kirilloff goes from #5 to #2 this year then the only logical correlation is that next year Javier will go from #4 to #1.

I don't think that would be a good thing...

I think he was in the 40s somewhere. He is another example of the strong depth in the organization. But, he was an 11th round pick this year. Would that mean that I should almost have the 8-10 players drafted ahead of him ahead of him? He got off to a great pro debut,, but I always try to temper that just a little. 

I think he was in the 40s somewhere. He is another example of the strong depth in the organization. But, he was an 11th round pick this year. Would that mean that I should almost have the 8-10 players drafted ahead of him ahead of him? He got off to a great pro debut,, but I always try to temper that just a little. 

I like this list. 6-9 are really all interchangeable but this is probably the order I would go as well.

 

My changes would be to flip Baddoo and Celestino. I probably also would move acala up 2 spots, Jeffers up a couple, and Severino up about 6.

 

I love the backend talent of this list. Colina, Arraez, Balazovic and the sleeper that is left off the whole list is Anthony Escobar. A 1.10 ERA with 53K's in 57 innings really intrigues me.

Can I second your comment on Escobar, whom Seth doesn't consider eligible for this exercise.  I really hope he is in Florida next summer so we can begin to learn what he has to put up those numbers.