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    It's Time!


    Seth Stohs

    This was supposed to be my article for Monday night, but with the firing (er, dismissal of duties) of Terry Ryan on Monday, this topic could wait a little bit. But I think it is important. Now the article can be framed as a request for interim GM Rob Antony to consider.

    With the Twins already out of playoff contention (probably in early May), every decision made for the rest of this season needs to have its focus to 2017. Any trades made by Antony need 2017 and beyond in mind. But there are a couple of transactions that can be - and probably should be - made right now.

    Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan, USA Today

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    The Twins need to find a way to promote three players from the minor leagues to the big leagues (and I’ll even argue for a fourth).

    Jose Berrios

    Ahora es el momento para La Makina! Jose Berrios needs to spend time in the big leagues this year, and his recent AAA success is proof of it. The time is now for Berrios to be called up.

    I’ve written several times that I thought it was time for Berrios to come up. I wrote it first about this time last year. I wrote it earlier this season, and now I’m writing it again. I don’t know if calling up Berrios would have helped the Twins in 2015 or not. There is no way to know. His control and command issues hurt him earlier this season, but he did get an opportunity with the Twins before his 22nd birthday in May.

    Those struggles were magnified in his four starts with the Twins. He went 1-1 but posted a 10.20 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP over 15 innings. While we saw glimpses of what he can - and likely will - be (the 12 K/9 looks great), we also saw that there was more for him to learn and that he needed to improve (7.2 BB/9 isn’t going to work).

    Berrios returned to Rochester and after a couple of rough starts, he has been tremendous of late.

    In his last six starts, he has thrown 41.2 innings. He has given up 23 hits walked 12 and struck out 43. That’s a 1.08 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9.

    Berrios is not a finished product and when he is called up he is going to still experience some lumps, but he’s got nothing left to prove at AAA. He has now made 27 starts and thrown 168 innings in AAA. He has had a lot of success there. There’s no reason he make any more starts there.

    JT Chargois

    There is also little reason for JT Chargois to continue pitching in Rochester at this point. Sure, he had a rough debut, and when the Twins claimed RHP Neil Ramirez off of waivers, it made some sense to send Chargois back down.

    Ramirez is a guy who was really good for the Cubs for a couple of years. Then he got hurt, and he’s out of options. So, is he the pitcher he has been the last year and a half, or is he the guy who was good? When a team has the right to claim players early, they should take chances on guys like Ramirez. However, it hasn’t gone terribly well, so at this point, Ramirez can be DFAd again to make room for Chargois.

    Again, calling up Chargois doesn’t mean we should think he’s 100% ready, but he’s got nothing more to prove in Rochester. His problem in the past was his control. In 2016, he is walking just 1.6 batters per nine innings over 27.2 innings in Rochester. He has a 1.30 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He’s striking out 11.4 per nine innings.

    Chargois, after missing two seasons after being drafted out of Rice University, is already 25. It’s possible that the organization still believes that Ramirez has more in the tank and want to keep him around, hoping he returns to that level. Understandable. If that’s the case, the Twins could call up Chargois when Fernando Abad or Brandon Kintzler are traded in 10 days or so.

    Jorge Polanco

    Polanco had several cups of coffee in 2014 and 2015. Those were 40-man roster decisions. At those times, he wasn’t ready for a full-time gig. He’s ready now.

    He spent a bit of time on the Twins roster earlier this season, and didn’t play, which makes little sense. However, since returning to Rochester, he has hit .279/.345/.471 (.816) in 52 games. He has 12 walks, three triples and seven home runs. He has a good approach at the plate.

    Now, I get that they can’t call up Polanco until a trade of either Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Escobar or even Brian Dozier. Calling him up and sitting one of those players would hurt (possibly) the value of those players. (Note - The other option is DFAing Danny Santana, but again, that would cost playing time in the short term for three guys that they may want to trade. We can just be patient for 10 more days.)

    Could the Twins throw Jorge Polanco at shortstop and stick with any struggles defensively the rest of the season? Sure they could. However, consider this. Here is his playing time by position in 2016:

    Shortstop - 1 game, 8 innings

    Second Base - 59 games, 512 innings

    Third Base - 2 games, 16 innings

    The Twins made the decision after spring training that Jorge Polanco was not going to be able to play shortstop, a decision that is hard to disagree with based on his play at the position the last couple of years. In fact, the one game he played at shortstop this year came in the big leagues.

    The issue is that Polanco is is out of options in 2017. He will need to make the Twins roster or potentially lose him on waivers (they would certainly lose him). If they want him to be a utility player, then he needs to start playing every day at a variety of positions.

    It will be very interesting to me to see how they choose to play Polanco, but in my mind, he needs to be playing in the big leagues very soon, as soon as a roster spot is available following a trade.

    OTHERS

    The three players mentioned above should be up either now, or right after a trade is made (in Polanco’s and maybe Chargois’ case). Here are a few others that either should be up soon, maybe in September, or at least people have been talking about of late.

    Trevor Hildenberger - The right-hander is completely making a mockery of minor league baseball the last couple of seasons. He’s got 16 saves and a 0.79 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP and a 0.5 HR/9, and 1.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 for Chattanooga in 34.1 innings. If the Twins trade two relievers, I have no problem calling him up August 1st to the Twins. He should move up to AAA when Chargois is called up to the big leagues regardless. Despite being drafted just over two years ago, he is 25 because he was a five-year college guy. The reason to not call him up is because of the 40-man roster. The Twins already have some tough decisions to make in November on the 40-man roster updates. Hildenberger doesn’t need to be added for another year. That’s why I’d say either call him up on August 1st, or wait to add him until early in the 2017 season. Invite him to big league camp with a legit shot at an Opening Day spot.

    Byung Ho Park - He has played in just 12 games since being demoted to Rochester. He missed a couple of games with his wrist concerns. He has hit .286/.388/.476 (.864) with two doubles and two home runs. He will come up again at some point, but in my opinion, I’d let him keep playing every day and gaining more and more confidence.

    John Ryan Murphy - If (or when) Kurt Suzuki is traded, most likely John Ryan Murphy, despite a .201/.264/.282 (.546) line in Rochester, will be called up. He just turned 25, so he should still be considered part of the future. He can also work with pitchers that he may work with over the final two months.

    Mitch Garver - Garver is also 25 years old, about four months older than Murphy. Garver has improved defensively, but his offense has been very good of late in Chattanooga too. Over his last 50 games, he has hit .289/.369/.489 (.858) with 14 doubles and eight home runs. Since July 1st, he is hitting .333/.425/.617 (1.041) with eight doubles and three homers in 16 games. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster by November anyway, so it makes sense to call him up either instead of Murphy or with the September call-ups.

    Jason Wheeler - The 25-year-old left-hander was added to the 40-man roster before the 2015 season. He had a tough year and was removed from the 40-man roster late in the season. He began this year in AA but was called up to Rochester when the Red Wings were down three starting pitchers to the big leagues. He has been very good. He is 6-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 15 starts (95 innings). If the Twins are able to trade a starting pitcher or two (Nolasco, Santana and Milone all possibilities), Wheeler could join the rotation for the final two months as a tryout. (Pat Dean could also get another opportunity, though he has struggled since his return to Rochester.)

    Alex Wimmers - The 27-year-old was the Twins top pick in the 2010 draft, which is significant. It’s been well documented that Wimmers has gone through a lot since the Twins signed him. He had a bout with the yips way back and overcame that. He has gone through Tommy John surgery and returned from that. He’s no longer a starter either. That he was drafted in 2010 is important because as soon as the World Series is complete, Wimmers can become a six-year minor league free agent. Sure, the Twins could re-sign him on a minor league deal after that point, but he has been pitching pretty well since his promotion to AAA Rochester’s bullpen early this season. He is 2-1 with eight saves in 28 games (37.1 innings). In his last 13 games (17 innings), he has a 1.59 ERA and opponents are hitting .197/.269/.246 (.515) against him. I would strongly consider calling him up for the final 6-8 weeks and just see how he does. Evaluate whether or not he is someone they want to keep on their 40-man roster or not. Sure, they can do that evaluation while he’s at AAA, but giving him that opportunity at the big league level is so much more valuable.

    Adam Brett Walker and Daniel Palka - Palka and Walker have both provided a lot of power. Walker is already on the 40-man roster. Palka needs to be added to the 40-man roster after the season, or potentially be lost. It’d be nice to see these guys in September, but it will be very interesting to see if they are. Palka plays right field and some first base and DH. Walker can play the corner outfield spots (not necessarily well) and DH. The Twins understandably will want to keep playing Max Kepler every day. Eddie Rosario needs at-bats, and Robbie Grossman has earned playing time too. At DH, Kennys Vargas is getting what might be his final opportunity, and Byung Ho Park will be up at some point. If Trevor Plouffe isn’t traded, he and Miguel Sano will likely get several DH at-bats, and Joe Mauer could as well. The two sluggers could come up as bench bats and get minimal playing time. The question will need to be whether there is enough benefit from those guys to take up roster spots in September.

    I’m guessing most of you will agree that Jose Berrios, JT Chargois and Jorge Polanco should be up now, or at least very soon. There may be some discussion in the details. But what about some of the others? Who else should be called up and why?


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    Hildenberger and wimmers. I'd like to see all the potential bullpen arms possible. I know this isn't gonna happen but I'd like to stretch out Trevor may and get him back starting. I like the young arms in the minors for the pen and the twins need starters who can miss bats which may provides

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    Well Seth, Zack Granite or Danny Santana? Defense: Granite.. Speed: Granite  Hitting: 50/50 maybe? I dont see why not to try Granite as a backup to Buxton instead of Santana.

     

    Well, to be fair, basically anyone is better than Santana. Granite is nothing special, but I guess if you want a replacement-level CF he's as good as the typical minor league FA option.

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    Dozier has slightly better minor league numbers and did have a .320 breakout season.  

    Heres the funny thing.. slightly better.. Polanco made it to the MLB at 21, Dozier wasn't even drafted until he was just over 22 years old. when Dozier had his "Breakout season" he was 24 years old in AA.. Polanco just turned 23 this month and is already a AAA veteran with great stats.  So I say Polanco's minor league career > Doziers

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    Well, to be fair, basically anyone is better than Santana. Granite is nothing special, but I guess if you want a replacement-level CF he's as good as the typical minor league FA option.

    hes hitting .309 with 35 stolen bases in AA and over his last 38 games he is hitting .369. Nothing special, most likely true... but he could easily end up being a starting Center fielder if he hits like this and he's young, 23. scouts have compared him to Burns which isn't too bad considering Burns had a 2.3 WAR last year.. 

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    I would still consider keeping E Santana unless the return is nice. Plouffe, Nolasco, Milton and Suzuki should all be gone soon. Not convinced moving Nunez or Escobar is a good move. I don't feel the necessity to gut the roster for the sake of doing so. And both offer ability and roles, TBD, and offer additional roster depth and flexability. Especially if we do consider moving Dozier at some point.

     

    But I want Polanco up. I'd consider moving on from D Santana even though there is still potential there. And both Kepler and Rosario can play CF here and there when Buxton needs a break.

     

    Berrios and Wheeler in the rotation now. (Still want to stretch out May, but might not happen now until next year)

     

    Chargois and Wimmers up in place of Ramirez and whoever else is moved. I'd like to bring Boshers up too, but we need to see if we actually have something in Wimmers. And as crazy good as he's been, I'm not sure how you don't bring up Hildenberger at some point.

     

    Not sure about Palka. I like him. I still hold out real hope for Walker as well. But there are so many AB and Walker is still a work in progress and Palka just got to AAA, so I guess I'm a no for now.

     

    Granite and Garver should both be at AAA tomorow. Could see Garver in September, but Murphy needs a fair audition for now.

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    Heres the funny thing.. slightly better.. Polanco made it to the MLB at 21, Dozier wasn't even drafted until he was just over 22 years old. when Dozier had his "Breakout season" he was 24 years old in AA.. Polanco just turned 23 this month and is already a AAA veteran with great stats.  So I say Polanco's minor league career > Doziers

     

    I'm not sure you can compare their minor league numbers for many of the reasons mentioned here.  Context matters and they don't have much in common. That said, Dozier has shown the ability to be an elite hitter and above average defender at the major league level for long periods of time. While Polanco to be fair hasn't had the opportunity to do so, those types of players don't exactly grown on trees.

     

    I think at the end of the day, trading Dozier is the right answer, especially with only 2 years left under contract, but I don't pretend to think that Polanco can walk in and out produce him in 2017. He may never put a season like Dozier.

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    Heres the funny thing.. slightly better.. Polanco made it to the MLB at 21, Dozier wasn't even drafted until he was just over 22 years old. when Dozier had his "Breakout season" he was 24 years old in AA..

    Well, yeah, Dozier didn't get drafted till he was 22.  He went to college, like Kris Bryant (also drafted at age 22).  You think Polanco is better than Bryant too, based on how old he was when he was drafted?

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    Well, yeah, Dozier didn't get drafted till he was 22.  He went to college, like Kris Bryant (also drafted at age 22).  You think Polanco is better than Bryant too, based on how old he was when he was drafted?

    I think Bryant reinforces the point about age comparisons, rather than negates it.

     

    Bryant was an absolute stud coming out of college, drafted high in the first round and then destroyed the pitchers at every level he played, demonstrating MLB readiness by age 23 (and the Cubs may have been conservative in how they advanced him, at least as regards his bat).

     

    Dozier was drafted in the 8th round, where nothing is a sure thing, and he needed more time to acquire and then demonstrate MLB readiness. His resume looks nothing like Bryant's.

     

    Obviously Polanco's bat doesn't stack up to Bryant's either. Hardly anybody's does. Youth alone doesn't guarantee MLB success - I was once 18 years old, and you probably were too. :) But conversely, you will make poor decisions about young players if you compare at face value what a 20 year old achieves at high-A to what a 23 year old does.

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    I think Bryant reinforces the point about age comparisons, rather than negates it.

     

    Bryant was an absolute stud coming out of college, drafted high in the first round and then destroyed the pitchers at every level he played, demonstrating MLB readiness by age 23 (and the Cubs may have been conservative in how they advanced him, at least as regards his bat).

     

    Dozier was drafted in the 8th round, where nothing is a sure thing, and he needed more time to acquire and then demonstrate MLB readiness. His resume looks nothing like Bryant's.

     

    Obviously Polanco's bat doesn't stack up to Bryant's either. Hardly anybody's does. Youth alone doesn't guarantee MLB success - I was once 18 years old, and you probably were too. :) But conversely, you will make poor decisions about young players if you compare at face value what a 20 year old achieves at high-A to what a 23 year old does.

    Yeah, I'm saying if a person is just looking at how old a player is when drafted to base any idea about how good someone is, they're missing the boat.  Nothing 'funny' about it when you realize one went to college and one didn't.

     

    But yeah, as far as comparing numbers, it was like people comparing Buxton's numbers in his first stint in the majors to Trout when Trout had his first stint in the majors. Trout was two years younger during his first stint.

     

    And yeah,  I was 18 once.  Looking up stock numbers on microfiche with only two stripes on my arm,  not having a cell phone, loving my Atari 2600, being in love for the first time (and no, I don't mean my Atari 2600 :-)).

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    I'm not sure you can compare their minor league numbers for many of the reasons mentioned here.  Context matters and they don't have much in common. That said, Dozier has shown the ability to be an elite hitter and above average defender at the major league level for long periods of time. While Polanco to be fair hasn't had the opportunity to do so, those types of players don't exactly grown on trees.

     

    I think at the end of the day, trading Dozier is the right answer, especially with only 2 years left under contract, but I don't pretend to think that Polanco can walk in and out produce him in 2017. He may never put a season like Dozier.

    You are correct that Polanco hasn't had his opportunity and we all know that has to change. And soon!

     

    I'm still torn on trading Dozier. He still brings a lot to this team, but his return should also be good. And he's still young enough to be part of this rebuild.

     

    I find the Polanco vs Dozier debates to be interesting. I see no reason why Polanco can't be a fine defensive 2B, as good as or better than Dozier. But they are different types of players. And that's OK. Polanco may develop some double digit HR power, but will probably never be a 20+ HR guy like Dozier. But he will almost assuredly hit more, have a decent to good OB, and provide speed and quite a few doubles. Losing Dozier's HR would stink, but it should also be offset, eventually if not immediately, by 1B/DH becoming more settled, Rosario and Kepler.

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    However, he does need to be added to the 40 man in the offseason, so it is possible. I just don't see it as likely.

    If Granite needs to be added to the 40 man, they might as well call him up for September (or earlier if there are any injuries).  7.5% K rate this year, 34 steals -- he could be a Ben Revere type -- not great, but has value at minimal salary, and would be a potential Rule 5 pick for someone too.

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    I find the Polanco vs Dozier debates to be interesting. I see no reason why Polanco can't be a fine defensive 2B, as good as or better than Dozier. But they are different types of players. And that's OK. Polanco may develop some double digit HR power, but will probably never be a 20+ HR guy like Dozier. But he will almost assuredly hit more, have a decent to good OB, and provide speed and quite a few doubles. Losing Dozier's HR would stink, but it should also be offset, eventually if not immediately, by 1B/DH becoming more settled, Rosario and Kepler.

    I like this thought process. 

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    If Granite needs to be added to the 40 man, they might as well call him up for September (or earlier if there are any injuries).  7.5% K rate this year, 34 steals -- he could be a Ben Revere type -- not great, but has value at minimal salary, and would be a potential Rule 5 pick for someone too.

     

    It honestly, in my opinion, comes down to numbers at some point. 

     

    I mean, where is he going to play? Pending trades, the Twins are rolling with Grossman, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in the outfield the rest of the way. Maybe if they trade/DFA Santana, Granite could come up to back up Buxton (though Rosario could do that too with Grossman playing LF. I'd like to see Granite, but I think it's more important for him to play until the Lookouts season is over, and then add him to the 40 man and let him come to spring training next year and then go to Rochester. 

     

    It's the same as I laid out with Walker and Palka. Would be fun to see them, but they aren't going to get ABs in LF or RF in September and DH already has like 4-5 guys vying for at bats. 

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    Well Seth, Zack Granite or Danny Santana? Defense: Granite.. Speed: Granite  Hitting: 50/50 maybe? I dont see why not to try Granite as a backup to Buxton instead of Santana.

     

    Like I wrote in another response... if Santana is gone, I have no problem with them bring in up Granite to back up Buxton AFTER the Lookouts season is over. Granite needs to keep getting at bats until there's time for bonus baseball. He could be a great candidate for the Arizona Fall League. 

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    He's got two situations that are equally against him.

     

    Like Palka/Walker, there are only so many outfield spots available. Can't bring them all up.

     

    However, he does need to be added to the 40 man in the offseason, so it is possible. I just don't see it as likely.

     

    I have no problem keeping Granite in AA the rest of the year and then add him to the 40 man in the offseason. 

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    Add Baxendale to the list of guys who are doing well and deserve consideration of a ca,, up to the Twins. He was starting in AA, and has been doing very well out of the pen since being called up to Rochester.

     

    Baxendale is another good choice. Since moving to the Rochester bullpen, 12 scoreless innings over nine games. 4 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts. The first times I saw him pitch were after he was drafted. He was pushed to Beloit and pitched out of the bullpen. His fastball/slider combo looked really good. Might be the best spot for him.

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    I would still consider keeping E Santana unless the return is nice. Plouffe, Nolasco, Milton and Suzuki should all be gone soon. Not convinced moving Nunez or Escobar is a good move. I don't feel the necessity to gut the roster for the sake of doing so. And both offer ability and roles, TBD, and offer additional roster depth and flexability. Especially if we do consider moving Dozier at some point.

     

    But I want Polanco up. I'd consider moving on from D Santana even though there is still potential there. And both Kepler and Rosario can play CF here and there when Buxton needs a break.

     

    Berrios and Wheeler in the rotation now. (Still want to stretch out May, but might not happen now until next year)

     

    Chargois and Wimmers up in place of Ramirez and whoever else is moved. I'd like to bring Boshers up too, but we need to see if we actually have something in Wimmers. And as crazy good as he's been, I'm not sure how you don't bring up Hildenberger at some point.

     

    Not sure about Palka. I like him. I still hold out real hope for Walker as well. But there are so many AB and Walker is still a work in progress and Palka just got to AAA, so I guess I'm a no for now.

     

    Granite and Garver should both be at AAA tomorow. Could see Garver in September, but Murphy needs a fair audition for now.

     

    I agree with everything you said here. But... Milton? We traded Eric Milton a long time ago.  :cool:

     

    Although... We probably should move Nunez. I'd be nice to sell high for once. He's the perfect deadline trade candidate. 

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    It honestly, in my opinion, comes down to numbers at some point. 

     

    I mean, where is he going to play? Pending trades, the Twins are rolling with Grossman, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in the outfield the rest of the way. Maybe if they trade/DFA Santana, Granite could come up to back up Buxton (though Rosario could do that too with Grossman playing LF. I'd like to see Granite, but I think it's more important for him to play until the Lookouts season is over, and then add him to the 40 man and let him come to spring training next year and then go to Rochester. 

     

    It's the same as I laid out with Walker and Palka. Would be fun to see them, but they aren't going to get ABs in LF or RF in September and DH already has like 4-5 guys vying for at bats. 

    Once the minor league season is done, there is nowhere for these guys to play until the AFL in October. Even if it's to ride the pine and get 1 start a week, they might as well be doing it in MLB instead of sitting at home.

     

    Furthermore, Grossman won't need the September at-bats all that much, and Santana may have already cemented his offseason status by then.  So the 4th outfielder spot could be open for auditions.  And Mauer absolutely doesn't need to play every day at 1B, if that can open an opportunity for Palka (although Park might take those at-bats too).

     

    There are likely to be injuries between now and the end of the season too.  I'd probably rather see these new guys fill in rather than Grossman and Santana.

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    You are correct that Polanco hasn't had his opportunity and we all know that has to change. And soon!

    I'm still torn on trading Dozier. He still brings a lot to this team, but his return should also be good. And he's still young enough to be part of this rebuild.

    I find the Polanco vs Dozier debates to be interesting. I see no reason why Polanco can't be a fine defensive 2B, as good as or better than Dozier. But they are different types of players. And that's OK. Polanco may develop some double digit HR power, but will probably never be a 20+ HR guy like Dozier. But he will almost assuredly hit more, have a decent to good OB, and provide speed and quite a few doubles. Losing Dozier's HR would stink, but it should also be offset, eventually if not immediately, by 1B/DH becoming more settled, Rosario and Kepler.

     

    Dozier will be turning 30 next May. So, he'll be in his decline phase when it's time to compete again. Smart teams would sell high on him now or in the offseason. 

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    Dozier will be turning 30 next May. So, he'll be in his decline phase when it's time to compete again. Smart teams would sell high on him now or in the offseason. 

    I'm fine with trading him too.  he might even be retired when it's time to compete gain. It would be the right move.

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