How Much Did the Minnesota Twins’ Farm System Improve in 2024?

A nice dose of hopeium in the cold world of absentee ownership!

I understand all of the desire to be optimistic, hyperbole, and the sad fact that we're in a post-truth world. But starting off your article stating the Twins "boast one of baseball’s best farm systems" just makes me roll my eyes. 

As you yourself said we know their ranking in the MLB subjective rankings will fall from their high mid season. And we know they have been ranked anywhere from 11-21 by other farm system analysts more recently. 

So...no. From the very first line. 

Yes it sounds great that we have a good  ranked system. But if these guys continue to fare poorly once they get to the ML level what does it matter? My sense is the struggling will continue until the rash platooning stops.

They are going to need high end major league production from many of these guys this season to have a chance.  
 

You going to have to get production at 1B from someone making the league minimum, you’re going to need high end production from an outfielder.  Along with someone who can fill in CF and someone who can fill a productive bench role as well all from guys currently in the system.

Thats not to mention filling in the holes in the bullpen.

A lot to ask from a system but here we are.

I found my self , by accident, looking at FanGraphs best Milb for 2024

Eeles, Severin and Keirsey Jr. make the top 50 a few times in good categories, couple of others are there once but not always in a really good category.

At that old friend Kyle Garlick is listed repeatedly in good categories, some times in the top 10.

He is a 1st Baseman now, hmmmm....

raya did not have a good if he was not a top prospect you would say the same thing. you select a short sample late in the year when most of the AA lineups were guys that got moved up after the all star game from high A

2025 might be a pivotal year for the Twins organization. There are number of players just past the rookie level and several who should be close to making contributions. Avoidance of injuries is key.

Most of the Twins affiliates were ok, with only the A and A+ teams finishing  over .500. The minor leagues are for development so one should not focus much on won-loss records. 

It does seem like the Twins are developing some pitching and we can hope some of these guys pan out. The hitting looks a little behind right now but patience is key with prospects. Two guys who stood out  were Payton Eeles and Carson McCusker. I'm looking forward to see how the minor league players perform in 2025.

11 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I understand all of the desire to be optimistic, hyperbole, and the sad fact that we're in a post-truth world. But starting off your article stating the Twins "boast one of baseball’s best farm systems" just makes me roll my eyes. 

As you yourself said we know their ranking in the MLB subjective rankings will fall from their high mid season. And we know they have been ranked anywhere from 11-21 by other farm system analysts more recently. 

So...no. From the very first line. 

It is a post truth world where also people use pessimistic hyperbole. To state thier case

The farm system in 2024 is producing what new players for the MLB team in 2025? Can they play defense better, do they hit better, pitch better than they did in 2023?  Can’t really say if the farm system is better or worse. That is the problem with trying yo assess, What the player is might not become apparent until arbitration hits 

Prospect hugging is a big part of why we didn't make the postseason. We had a couple of small holes that could have been easily resolved by trading a couple of 3rd tier prospects without touching any 1st or 2nd tier. One in particular that was masquerading as 1st tier (Gonzalez). Primary, a mid-rotation inning eater to give much-needed depth, later a high-leverage LHRP were our real needs. That wasn't properly addressed. IMO we have a pretty good farm, the primary purpose of the farm is to stock the MLB club directly or indirectly through trades. Why keep the farm bloated with 3rd tier players, when we can use them in trade?

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Prospect hugging is a big part of why we didn't make the postseason. We had a couple of small holes that could have been easily resolved by trading a couple of 3rd tier prospects without touching any 1st or 2nd tier. One in particular that was masquerading as 1st tier (Gonzalez). Primary, a mid-rotation inning eater to give much-needed depth, later a high-leverage LHRP were our real needs. That wasn't properly addressed. IMO we have a pretty good farm, the primary purpose of the farm is to stock the MLB club directly or indirectly through trades. Why keep the farm bloated with 3rd tier players, when we can use them in trade?

A high leverage LH relief pitcher would require a couple of third tier prospects that somebody else considered first tier. it would also need those players to be on a losing team and be a rental. That scenario did not exist 

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

A high leverage LH relief pitcher would require a couple of third tier prospects that somebody else considered first tier. it would also need those players to be on a losing team and be a rental. That scenario did not exist 

"There aren't any trades out there." I've been he told that for years. Here are 2 trade offers I made in June,'24

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/168177

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/168590

In the 1st you see Severino straight up for Pukk. 2nd you see a wide variety of trade surplus trade values Gabriel Gonzalez at 11, AJ Pukk at 1.5 & in a trade just after this one I had a trade for Tanner Scott at 4.5 surplus value. MIA was motivated to trade, we could have landed both Pukk & Scott very cheaply if we acted quickly to our needs. You sit & wait until the end high-end RP becomes more expensive & the last day you'll pick up the scraps. Here's another trade in July, Gonzalez 8.0 for Pukk 7.1, still a bargain.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/171074

Gonzalez is a 3rd tier prospect that shouldn't ever make the Twins. His surplus trade value is now 3.1 , I expect it to fall further.

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

"There aren't any trades out there." I've been he told that for years. Here are 2 trade offers I made in June,'24

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/168177

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/168590

In the 1st you see Severino straight up for Pukk. 2nd you see a wide variety of trade surplus trade values Gabriel Gonzalez at 11, AJ Pukk at 1.5 & in a trade just after this one I had a trade for Tanner Scott at 4.5 surplus value. MIA was motivated to trade, we could have landed both Pukk & Scott very cheaply if we acted quickly to our needs. You sit & wait until the end high-end RP becomes more expensive & the last day you'll pick up the scraps. Here's another trade in July, Gonzalez 8.0 for Pukk 7.1, still a bargain.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/171074

Gonzalez is a 3rd tier prospect that shouldn't ever make the Twins. His surplus trade value is now 3.1 , I expect it to fall further.

 

You provide the reason why the team could not have traded for Puk by giving them Gonzales with your last line.  What you haven’t shown is that the Twins had a better third tier player than Miami received for Puk . Gonzalez simply has ot hit at the A+ level. At best he is the lottery ticket the team throws in. 

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Prospect hugging is a big part of why we didn't make the postseason. We had a couple of small holes that could have been easily resolved by trading a couple of 3rd tier prospects without touching any 1st or 2nd tier. One in particular that was masquerading as 1st tier (Gonzalez). Primary, a mid-rotation inning eater to give much-needed depth, later a high-leverage LHRP were our real needs. That wasn't properly addressed. IMO we have a pretty good farm, the primary purpose of the farm is to stock the MLB club directly or indirectly through trades. Why keep the farm bloated with 3rd tier players, when we can use them in trade?

"Why keep the farm bloated with 3rd tier players, when we can use them in a trade?" What are you going to get for those 3rd tier players? Even if they are part of a deal, they will just bring back another. Noah Miller is not coming back. Sorry. Keirsey. Is he 1st Tier? And if so, why? Do you really believe Keirsey on the roster over Margot would have put the Twins over the top?  Let's take one of your trade scenarios. Acquiring Puk or Scott. Was that going to help a team that had 4 hitters contributing the last 6 weeks of the season? We'll never know. But your scenarios guarantee success and that's just wishful thinking at best.

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

You provide the reason why the team could not have traded for Puk by giving them Gonzales with your last line.  What you haven’t shown is that the Twins had a better third tier player than Miami received for Puk . Gonzalez simply has ot hit at the A+ level. At best he is the lottery ticket the team throws in. 

Why don't you guys actually read what I write? I gave Puk's value at 1.5 in mid-June surplus value do you have any idea how many of our low-3rd tier prospects were higher than that? Gonzalez is a super-hyped prospect before we got him his surplus value was 13.1, because of the hype people were willing to pay that for him. many can't distinguish the hype, again his value has dropped to 3.1. There are other teams & Twins still value Gonzalez (he's still MN#7) & are willing to overpay for him. But that is beside the point of there were high-leverage LHRPs that could be had reasonably.

AZ traded for Puk at the deadline, a slight overpay with prospects which is very reasonable for the deadline.  Puk 8.1 to Deyvison De Los Santos 8.0 plus a throw-in. Which was in line with Gonzalez's value. Gonzalez had been in MN's top 5. Again my point was to trade well before the deadline so you don't have to pay a premium. 

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

 Acquiring Puk or Scott. Was that going to help a team that had 4 hitters contributing the last 6 weeks of the season? We'll never know. But your scenarios guarantee success and that's just wishful thinking at best.

The BP & rotation was hurting long before the last 6 weeks. There were many games we should have won prior to that. Many times there is a fine line between winning & losing. I agree that the lack of a high-end LHRP was not the only reason for our downfall. As I stated lack of depth in the rotation & chemistry had a lot also to do with it. We had the offense but they weren't able to pull up the nose to avoid the crash. If we want to make it to the postseason we have to address every viable solution. In June, If we got a high-end LHRP when I suggested it, could have we won more games? Most definitely. Could have we avoided the slump? Maybe. Could have we cut the slump short? It's likely. In doing so could we have made the postseason? It's likely but I don't think we would have gone far because of the condition of the team. 

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Why don't you guys actually read what I write? I gave Puk's value at 1.5 in mid-June surplus value do you have any idea how many of our low-3rd tier prospects were higher than that? Gonzalez is a super-hyped prospect before we got him his surplus value was 13.1, because of the hype people were willing to pay that for him. many can't distinguish the hype, again his value has dropped to 3.1. There are other teams & Twins still value Gonzalez (he's still MN#7) & are willing to overpay for him. But that is beside the point of there were high-leverage LHRPs that could be had reasonably.

AZ traded for Puk at the deadline, a slight overpay with prospects which is very reasonable for the deadline.  Puk 8.1 to Deyvison De Los Santos 8.0 plus a throw-in. Which was in line with Gonzalez's value. Gonzalez had been in MN's top 5. Again my point was to trade well before the deadline so you don't have to pay a premium. 

Baseball trade values has no application in the real world.  Any analysis of the trade says that Arizona got the better end of the deal. Saying that a hitter with a season and a half at A+ level with an OPS of .695 is equal to a AAA player with an OPS of .835 is laughable

10 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Baseball trade values has no application in the real world.  Any analysis of the trade says that Arizona got the better end of the deal. Saying that a hitter with a season and a half at A+ level with an OPS of .695 is equal to a AAA player with an OPS of .835 is laughable

BTV is like any stat, it's not perfect but it's a tool to give you an unbiased idea.

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Marlins got a top 50 global prospect for Tanner Scott. Plus 3 other prospects. Did you want to trade Keaschall or Rodriguez for Scott? Because those are the non-top 10 prospects for the Twins that come close to what Robby Snelling was at the time of the trade. They were not trading him to the Twins "very cheaply" in June. That isn't how it works.

As @old nurse said, BTV isn't the real world. I mean you show how fickle BTV is by the fact that Puk goes from 1.5 to 7.1 from June to July. Teams are smart and they know how to drive bidding wars. You weren't getting Puk and Scott in June for cheap because you acted quickly and Miami just wanted to get rid of guys. Teams know to wait until the trade deadline when the prices go up because more teams bid. So unless you get the high end prospect you want in June you don't trade them. Why would Miami trade Puk and Scott when their value is low in June instead of when it'll be high in July? The other team has a say in the trade, too.

Why did MIA traded Arraez in April or May? IMO they didn't get that much for him. Why didn't they hold on to him until the very end of the deadline? If they had gotten a reasonable offer on Puk when his #s weren't good due to the failed SP experiment with a lot of negative hype they would have bitten. Even most of the season Scott wasn't given much opportunity to shine. MIA like MN had a big Fire Sale sign up. Their big ticket was Luzardo but nobody gave them any serious offer. Then Luzardo got hurt, & that ended their hopes for a hay day. After that they were willing to deal on any reasonable offer. Towards the end of the deadline Scott was their only hope for any payday so they held out on him. I was surprised that MIA didn't wait for Luzardo's trade value to go up at the deadline, instead of trading him now when his trade value was low. But like I said MIA is gun shy. If someone'll give me a good deal on Dobnak, Paddack, Jeffers or Julien any time before the deadline. I'm not going to say no I'm waiting for the deadline when they are up for sale. I'm going to jump on it.

No stat is the real world, stats are far from perfect. BTV is no different. But it is an unbiased tool to gauge a player's trade worth at any given time. Yes hype is a factor but unfortunately so is it in the real world. If you want to be a good trader you have to weed through all the positive & negative hype & find the good deals & conditions & strike. Not wait around for scrapes.

I'm with you on this Doc Gast.  Last season, the Twins were in the drivers seat for a Wild Card spot but the engine light was on and screaming at the driver (our FO) that attention was needed.  "Prospect Hugging" is a great way to put it. 

Plenty of trades get made without giving up the prime prospects a team has.  Puk's value was way down because of the failed SP experiment and then he struggled at the outset of his move back to the pen.  His value literally cratered.  I'm always amused by the criticism of BBTV.  Of course it's not the be all and end all.  But it at least gives regular guys like us who are not privy to the rankings of players throughout every organization in MLB "SOME" kind of idea of what a reasonable trade could look like.

Some of our mid-tier prospects could have been packaged to make a better deadline acquisition than Trevor Richards.  There is no way anyone can put lipstick on the pig that was our FO's ultimate move when that engine light was screaming that disaster was imminent.  

It's like holding out for a "better prospect" for Chris Paddack.  Waiting isn't going to see any kind of major upgrade on the prospect we will ultimately get for Paddack.  His entire $7.5 million dollar salary should have been cleared at the Winter Meetings.  If the Twins are to have any hope that a Profar signing or Mountcastle/Yandy Diaz trade gets completed nothing can get started until that first payroll slashing domino falls.  And the easiest domino is Paddack.  

On the one hand, I admire what our FO has been able to do in building a pitching pipeline to the big leagues as well as position player prospects like Jenkins, E-Rod, Keaschall, Winokur and guys that have already been with the Twins like Lewis, Wallner, Lee, Miranda, Julien, Martin, Larnach, Jeffers and more.  But acting decisively has never been a strong suit of this FO.  They constantly wait until opportunity after opportunity passes them by.  Maybe that mindset will change with new ownership.  Or maybe they will never get the chance because new ownership wants their own people in place.  

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You may not have liked the return for Arraez, but here's what Keith Law wrote about it: "The return for Miami seemed solid with the initial reports that it included Dillon Head and Nathan Martorella, but when you throw in Jakob Marsee, this is the best deal the Marlins have made in years." So, maybe that's why they traded him in May and maybe it was a pretty decent return? Dillon Head was a first round pick the year before. That's a pretty good starting point for any trade.

Nobody made a serious offer for Luzardo because he was awful and injured all of last year. He's actually a great example of the point here. His BTV value was probably very low (comparatively) at the beginning of the year while he carried around an ERA touching 7 through April. That would've tanked his BTV ranking so according to you the Twins would've been able to just call the Marlins and snag him for cheap because his surplus value was low so he could be had at a bargain. But the Marlins wouldn't take those deals because BTV isn't real. That's what ended their "hopes of a hay day." Him being bad. He had an ERA of 5.

AJ Puk had a multi-year track record of success in the pen, the "failed starter experiment" didn't tank his value. Yet another reason BTV isn't real. It doesn't take that into account. Humans can remember that and think "hey, we know he can succeed in the pen, so we'll just do that." You know, like you did. You outsmarted BTV. I'm quite certain the MLB teams could figure that out, too. Including the Marlins. He made 4 starts in April before going back to the pen and having an ERA under 3 there through June. By the time they traded him it was 2.08 out of the pen. BTV doesn't take that into account. Teams do. Including the Marlins.

Tanner Scott wasn't given much chance to shine? He was the unquestioned #1 reliever on the market. He made 35 appearances through June. 44 by the time he got traded. That's a ton of opportunity to shine. He was at 36 innings with a 1.50 ERA by the end of June. You're just making stuff up to fit your narrative now. 35 appearances through June tied him with Ryan Pressly, Clay Holmes, and Josh Hader. I think those are some names people have heard of and were given "chances to shine" by their teams last year.

No stats are the real world? Of course they are. Batting average is literally a measurement of what happened in the real world. Homeruns are just a counting of what happened in the real world. BTV is very different. Yes, BTV is different. It is unbiased, but it is flawed because it can't take certain factors into account. It's a starting point for conversations amongst us outsiders. It is not a tool that can, or should, be used the way you use it to say "the Twins could have had this player if they would have offered this player on this date." That isn't how it works. You can't make those claims. Sure, humans have biases and can fall victim to hype, but if a front office is being swayed by outside hype on a regular basis instead of their scouting reports they are failing at their jobs and won't survive long. There's a reason the real draft doesn't follow mock drafts and prospect rankings. Teams have their own scouts, their own systems, their own rankings. They aren't following the hype you see. They aren't checking BTV. They aren't checking top-100 lists (except when it comes to the extra comp pick for rookie of the year stuff now). They aren't consulting outside mock drafts to figure out who to draft. They don't care what BTV or you or me or anyone outside thinks of Gabriel Gonzalez (I never liked him as a prospect either so we're on the same page there) or any other prospect. They could save themselves a whole lot of money on scouts and analysts if that were the case. Yes, biases and hype are real, but teams put processes in place to try to reduce them and they aren't making decisions based on outside opinions. They don't even make decisions based on individual scouts as often as possible. They have cross checkers and send multiple scouts out to see the same guy as often as they can. A good trader ignores all the hype and works off only their internal processes and doesn't overpay for anything. But they also know the worth of their own players and doesn't take an underpay which is why the Marlins wouldn't have given away Puk and Scott for cheap a month early like you suggest. Your suggestion is that the Twins be the only good traders while the rest of the league be fools who don't know the value of their own players and give them away at their low points because the Twins treat the trade market like the stock market and just buy everything on the down swing immediately. That isn't how it works. That isn't realistic.

Always take things out of context & changing focus. What MIA got in return for Arraez was only an opinion, the context was that he was traded well before the deadline (BTW I don't think much of Law's opinion).  My remark on Scott was focused mainly on his 1st half image not his deadline image. Puk's drop in performance absolutely had an effect what his asking price. By offering a reasonable offer I'm not saying paying his market worth but closer to what he's truly worth. 

I see overpay & underpay all the time. You'd like all FO have a good evaluation on all their players but that is far from the truth. Many aren't good at it, many look only at stats & completely overlook the underlying conditions & who the player is, many have biases that favor one over the other, some are influenced by hype.  And beyond that there are conditions that force you to make deals that you normally wouldn't do. Like the Law of supply & demand it doesn't matter what market you are talking about. Of course, you have the right not to sell when a player's value is low or not buy when a player's value is high but when a player is for sale you jump on it.

As always your spinning has spun us off topic, Let's just agree to disagree & put this to rest.

15 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

BTV is like any stat, it's not perfect but it's a tool to give you an unbiased idea.

There is a built ini bias of what the designer’s opinion is.