Would You Rather: Darvish or a Cobb/Lynn Combo?

Adding two starters suddenly creates a pretty good rotation of at least 4 solid starters. That can get you to the playoffs. However, Cobb or Lynn doesn't win you playoff games. In the playoffs, you're facing all-star or close to it staring pitchers almost every night. Cobb and Lynn combined wins games in conjunction with what the Twins have already, but come playoff time, Darvish can match up better against Verlander/McCullers/Cole/etc. This also allows Santana and Berrios some more favorable match-ups as well. Also, let's not forget that Gibson and Mejia are projected to be of similar value to Cobb and Lynn, respectively. Therefore, I believe it is logical to spend on one pitcher that pushes the needle instead of investing the same amount of two pitchers that barely push it. If this were the Pirates, I would say get the two cheaper pitchers. This situation for the Twins is different. If we want to win a Wild Card game against the Red Sox, Yankees, or Angles, Yu Darvish is better suited to start that game than Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Because of the Twins current situation, Yu Darvish must be the answer.

Not arguing so much with your conclusion as your premise.    Playoff performance.

Alex Cobb 1-0 with 1.56 ERA

Lance Lynn  5-4 and 7-4 in games he has started with a 4.5 ERA

Yu Darvish 2-4 with a 5.81 ERA

I agree that Darvish matches up better but that is just on paper.   If either Cobb or Lynn had been on the Dodgers team this year instead of Darvish maybe LA wins the WS.

How do Mejia and Gibson project to the same value of Lynn and Cobb when their history of success is so different?

Not arguing so much with your conclusion as your premise.    Playoff performance.

 

Alex Cobb 1-0 with 1.56 ERA

Lance Lynn  5-4 and 7-4 in games he has started with a 4.5 ERA

Yu Darvish 2-4 with a 5.81 ERA

 

I agree that Darvish matches up better but that is just on paper.   If either Cobb or Lynn had been on the Dodgers team this year instead of Darvish maybe LA wins the WS.

How do Mejia and Gibson project to the same value of Lynn and Cobb when their history of success is so different?

Ugh... This is the exact definition of a small sample size argument. I would take Yu 10 out of 10 times in a playoff game.

I don't think the Twins have guys that will definitely perform as well as Cobb or Lynn next season. They have guys that might completely flop in their first call up to the majors or they might have several prospects that cycle through the 4th/5th spots before finding a solid pitchers. I am willing to take the cycling through promising 4th/5th starters if the Twins add Darvish (or an Archer level trade) at the top of the rotation though. 

I'm going with Darvish or nothing.

Seems to me that adding two pitchers not named Darvish creates a problem the Twins don't need, in that the Twins have some young, and returning, pitchers the Twins need to find out about. 

Ugh... This is the exact definition of a small sample size argument. I would take Yu 10 out of 10 times in a playoff game.

 

I don't think the Twins have guys that will definitely perform as well as Cobb or Lynn next season. They have guys that might completely flop in their first call up to the majors or they might have several prospects that cycle through the 4th/5th spots before finding a solid pitchers. I am willing to take the cycling through promising 4th/5th starters if the Twins add Darvish (or an Archer level trade) at the top of the rotation though. 

Keep in mind that Darvish turned in excellent starts for the Dodgers in both the NLDS and NLCS. And the Dodgers offense only scored a combined 4 runs in his two WS starts.

And this was the first full season back from TJ for Darvish, as well as for Lynn and Cobb. Who's to say they all wouldn't have faded similarly if asked to pitch into November!

What you both say is all true but there is empirical evidence that Lynn and Cobb win playoff games.  You say Ugh but small sample size is the argument for making the playoffs because anything can happen.    Taking Darvish 10 out of 10 times is kind of meaningless.   If you would take him one out of one times you would take him 100 out of 100 times.   Doesn't mean he would be more successful 100 out of 100 times.   Probably more successful 60 out of 100.   Its why you would rather have him but not having him is not the same as having no chance.

Darvish

 

Break the Bank 

It would take a lot more than Darvish to break the Pohlad's bank account. Richest owners in baseball. 

Despite my previous criticism of this potential deal, I do like Yu Darvish. Fantastic talent, but he has now had a serious arm injury, and he's on the wrong side of 30 to sign a long-term deal. 

Part of this too is because of the recent history of this team with veteran retreads. Twins paid too much money for a few of them, and they didn't produce, other than Santana. 

At this point, I would rather continue experimenting with kids from the farm system than go after pricey free agents. 2018 could be the year this team firms up as a contender, but it's not the year the Twins are going to make a deep run. I want to see how Trevor May looks, how Gonsalves looks, Romero, etc. I also want to see if Felix Jorge has added a bit of muscle, if Tyler Jay can at least help in the pen, and if Kohl Stewart has finally learned how to pitch. 

Harvest time's a-comin', friends. Lottery in June, corn coming up soon. 

signing Darvish prevents none of those players from impacting the 2018 Twins, if they earn a shot.

what it DOES do is lesson the chances of DEPENDING on them, and/or adds TO them.


There's room on a staff of 12 or 13, with 20 or so making an appearance, for all the good pitching you can find.

I agree though I think the premise of Darvish vs both Lynn and Cobb is pie in the sky.     If we sign just one of those guys it falls under your blanket of reasoning.    I would be happy with any of the three because I think any one of the three would deepen and improve our rotation and give us a better shot at the playoffs.   I would rank them Darvish, Cobb and Lynn. I don't trust NL starters even though Correia really wasn't that bad for us.    Nolasco was.  Anyway that is why I rank Cobb slightly ahead of Lynn.   Cobb has done it in the division with the best offenses.    

What you both say is all true but there is empirical evidence that Lynn and Cobb win playoff games.  You say Ugh but small sample size is the argument for making the playoffs because anything can happen.    Taking Darvish 10 out of 10 times is kind of meaningless.   If you would take him one out of one times you would take him 100 out of 100 times.   Doesn't mean he would be more successful 100 out of 100 times.   Probably more successful 60 out of 100.   Its why you would rather have him but not having him is not the same as having no chance.

Empirical evidence still requires a significant sample size. Darvish is flat out the better pitcher and he would be successful more often than the other two.

Empirical evidence still requires a significant sample size. Darvish is flat out the better pitcher and he would be successful more often than the other two.

My original post was in response to a post saying Cobb and Lynn don't win you playoff games and I was just pointing out that they were 8-4 in games  they started.   Empirical is based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic.   Small sample size but it still refutes that original post.   I conceded that Darvish would probably be successful more often but on 2nd thought, where is the proof that he is flat out the better pitcher?    Career ERA and 2017 ERA say there is not that much difference.    You can point to other stuff but now we are out of SSS and if your goal is run prevention there just isn't that much difference.

Yeah, while Lynn/Cobb is a decent consolation prize for those who lose the Darvish sweepstakes, the Twins already have two pitchers capable of equal or better performance going forward (Santana, Berrios).

 

And that combo didn't get the Twins out of the Wild Card game in 2017. I want a clear upgrade, not another guy who's just "good".

 

Though I won't throw a fit if the front office signs a "good" pitcher, I'd simply prefer something better than that.

Ok, that middle paragraph is the epitome of SSS.    Santana pitched horribly.   Anyone that pitches horribly with respect to their abilities is not going to be successful.   Darvish and Kershaw both showed us that.    Santana pitched like an ace most of the year and then has a clunker.    That is evidence that he didn't get us out of the WC game but certainly not that he was not capable of doing so.    That is evidence that it is still baseball played on a field rather than on paper.

I am guessing none of us are that far apart.  We would all be happier with a better pitcher but my starting point the day after the season ended was that the odds say we end up with none of those three so from that starting point I am happier if they are able to sign any of them.

I agree though I think the premise of Darvish vs both Lynn and Cobb is pie in the sky.     If we sign just one of those guys it falls under your blanket of reasoning.    I would be happy with any of the three because I think any one of the three would deepen and improve our rotation and give us a better shot at the playoffs.   I would rank them Darvish, Cobb and Lynn. I don't trust NL starters even though Correia really wasn't that bad for us.    Nolasco was.  Anyway that is why I rank Cobb slightly ahead of Lynn.   Cobb has done it in the division with the best offenses.    

How would you rank the Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Rockies and D-Backs offenses compared to AL teams? Lynn pitched well against all of them last year (he also had 2 QS against the Red Sox).

Don't get me wrong, I would rather have Darvish than Lynn and/or Cobb. But at the same time, people are selling them short. I think both Lynn and Cobb are borderline 2/3 guys, not 4/5 guys. 

5-4, actually. The Cardinals were 3-4 in Lynn's postseason starts, the Rays were 2-0 behind Cobb. Although none of that is recent: Lynn's last postseason start was 2014, and Cobb's was 2013 (and his K/9 has fallen by 2 since then).

I think I confused the game results with the series results.    So I also missed the games started stats but he was 5-4 in terms of record but 3-4 in games started.   Doesn't really disprove that they are capable of winning playoff games.    I think they have all come back from injuries and Cobb coming back as well as he did without a feel for his best pitch is encouraging to me.   If he gets the feel back, he could be a real sleeper.   If he doesn't, he still  has a nice curve ball and could still give us mid rotation performance.

My point isn't that Santana failed in the Wild Card game, it's that the Twins had to go to New York and play said Wild Card game and the reason they didn't play at home is because their pitching staff was well below average.

 

I'd certainly prefer to see someone better than Santana pitch the first game of the postseason but mostly I'm concerned about the 30-33 regular season starts that player gets before the postseason.

Yankees should have won 100 and the Twins should have won 83 and it was in New York so they were definitely underdogs but still only a good performance from Santana away from stealing one.  Didn't happen.  Such is life.    I think any one of the three is a good bet to close the gap because I do have faith that Mejia and or others will fill more of the gap at the very back of the rotation.    Someone we don't expect is going to surprise us in a good way but I agree with Chief's position that a solid or better starter  from the outside would be a big plus.    I don't believe these guys are rehashes of Correia and Nolasco.   I think they are true upgrades.  Any one of them.   

For the playoffs, I would love to have the 2013 Lynn or Cobb. That is the last either won a playoff game. That was 5 years and a significant injury ago.

The Twins need to be projecting forward and not looking backward. Projecting forward through their mid thirties won’t be as hope filled as looking back at their primes.

Not arguing so much with your conclusion as your premise.    Playoff performance.

 

Alex Cobb 1-0 with 1.56 ERA

Lance Lynn  5-4 and 7-4 in games he has started with a 4.5 ERA

Yu Darvish 2-4 with a 5.81 ERA

 

I agree that Darvish matches up better but that is just on paper.   If either Cobb or Lynn had been on the Dodgers team this year instead of Darvish maybe LA wins the WS.

How do Mejia and Gibson project to the same value of Lynn and Cobb when their history of success is so different?

Mejia projects to be a 1.5 win player (Fangraphs)

Gibson projects to be a 2 win player (Fangraphs)

Lynn projects to be a 1.3 win player and had a disastrous 4.82 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season.

Cobb projects to be a 1.7 win player, though was a 2.4 win player last season.

That equates to, likely, 7 figures for the difference of probably 1 more win. Maybe 2 depending on who your fifth starter is without making a signing.

Darvish projects to be a 3.6 win player. 

As for the playoff numbers, beware of the Central Limit Theorem. Good players, with enough repetitions, become good players. Average players become average players. Mediocre players become mediocre players. Kershaw has had some bad postseasons but you would still take him, wouldn't you??

Mejia projects to be a 1.5 win player (Fangraphs)

Gibson projects to be a 2 win player (Fangraphs)

Lynn projects to be a 1.3 win player and had a disastrous 4.82 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season.

Cobb projects to be a 1.7 win player, though was a 2.4 win player last season.

 

That equates to, likely, 7 figures for the difference of probably 1 more win. Maybe 2 depending on who your fifth starter is without making a signing.

 

Darvish projects to be a 3.6 win player. 

 

As for the playoff numbers, beware of the Central Limit Theorem. Good players, with enough repetitions, become good players. Average players become average players. Mediocre players become mediocre players. Kershaw has had some bad postseasons but you would still take him, wouldn't you??

I think Fangraphs projections for Lynn are way off.  He is much better than 1.3 WAR.  I think he will be much closer to mid 3's in 2018 consistent with what he did from 2013-2015.  

I agree though I think the premise of Darvish vs both Lynn and Cobb is pie in the sky.     If we sign just one of those guys it falls under your blanket of reasoning.    I would be happy with any of the three because I think any one of the three would deepen and improve our rotation and give us a better shot at the playoffs.   I would rank them Darvish, Cobb and Lynn. I don't trust NL starters even though Correia really wasn't that bad for us.    Nolasco was.  Anyway that is why I rank Cobb slightly ahead of Lynn.   Cobb has done it in the division with the best offenses.    

Darvish is too costly, but one of Cobb or Lynn would do most of what Chief suggested, taking some pressure off the kids. 

Still, I'd rather see 2018 be another year of extended tryouts for the Twins minor league talent. If Gonsalves and Romero don't flame out, then we've got the foundation of a solid pitching staff for the next few years. Then you add a hired gun like Darvish in 2019 to see how far you get in a playoff run. Meanwhile, bring up a bunch of AA and AAA guys to see if they can get guys out somehow. 

To me it looks like the Twins system is brimming with future starters at #3 through #5 positions, but only a couple (Berrios, Romero) as possible aces. Gonsalves looks to be a possible #3, if his arm holds up. I'm not too high on Tyler Jay.