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Despite having one of the best rotations in franchise history this past year, the Twins ended up with only two pitchers whom they genuinely trusted to start a playoff game: Pablo López and Sonny Gray.
The All-Star pairing made four starts in the playoffs–one apiece in both the ALWC and the ALDS–and were given the chance to go fairly deep in those games. Meanwhile, significantly less confidence was shown toward Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda.
Ober pitched Game 1 of the ALDS against Houston and was pulled after three innings, at 43 pitches. He gave up three runs on a pair of homers. Ryan started an elimination Game 4, and was removed after just two innings and 26 pitches. Maeda was trusted seemingly least of all, demoted to a low-leverage bullpen role in which he, too, struggled (4 IP, 3 ER).
The Twins are looking ahead to a season in which they'll be favored to win the division, and aiming to take the next step in the playoffs. A rotation capable of meeting that challenge is crucial. Ultimately, the staff wasn't quite there this year, given the usage and the results beyond López and the now-departed Gray.
As we ponder the outlook for 2024 and what the front office is building from, let's assess the trust level for each of the five starters currently slotted into next year's rotation. For each, I'll call out a few things the pitcher could do next season to improve that level of trust before the postseason rolls around.
Pablo López
Trust Level: 9/10
He pitched like an ace for much of the season and definitely looked the part in the playoffs, holding the Blue Jays and Astros to one run over 12 innings in his two starts--both of them wins. Not sure what more you could ask for, other than cutting out the occasional clunker that inflated his regular-season ERA a bit.
What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
Just stay the course. If López pitches exactly the same way in 2024 as he did in 2023, he's a viable Game 1 playoff starter, and that's a great place to start. From here, however, things get murkier.
Bailey Ober
Trust Level: 6/10
Over the course of the season, Ober was quietly one of the most effective starters in the majors, but he wore down late in the year under the burden of a career-high workload. The Twins sent him down in late August, after he posted a 6.75 ERA over a six-start stretch. He returned a few weeks later and then made the one playoff start, but Ober never looked quite the same after the All-Star break.
What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
Stay strong and durable throughout the marathon. The version of Ober we saw in the first half, wherein he held opponents to a .207/.259/.345 slash line with a 2.61 ERA in 14 starts, is a clear-cut playoff starter. He just needs to maintain that form into September and October. After going from 70 innings pitched in 2022 to 170 in 2023, he'll be much more equipped for the task next year.
Joe Ryan
Trust Level: 5/10
Much like Ober, Ryan experienced a steep drop-off after a strong start in 2023, posting a 2.98 ERA in his first 15 starts and a 6.62 ERA in the last 14. The team's shattered confidence in him was made clear by his usage in the playoffs, where Ryan made one "start" and was essentially used as an opener. He threw fewer pitches (26) than any other Twin who appeared in the postseason.
What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
Much like Ober, Ryan is a quality playoff option if he's pitching the way he did in the first half. But he needs to prove he can carry that form into the end of the season. He also experienced a dropoff in his solid rookie season, when his 2.89 ERA through the first 15 starts gave way to 4.36 in the final 12 starts. Hopefully the righthander learned a lesson from tanking his promising sophomore campaign by hiding an injury.
Chris Paddack
Trust Level: 3/10
The Twins seem convinced that Paddack can step in as a No. 2 or 3 starter next year, and their faith might be well-founded. He returned with a bang in late 2023. The 27-year-old looked excellent in September and October, throwing fire out of the bullpen. Even if he does channel this success back into a starting role, the problem is that it's tough to envision Paddack remaining effective into October. He's thrown 27 combined innings over the past two years.
What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
In addition to showing he can recapture the front-line starter profile of his rookie year in 2019 (140 IP, 3.33 ERA), Paddack needs to find a way to remain strong and effective through the finish line. As Ober exemplifies, even very good pitchers are bound to run out of gas when their bodies aren't conditioned for the rigors of six months and almost 200 innings. The Twins might need to get creative with his handling if they want Paddack to be a factor in their playoff rotation.
Louie Varland
Trust Level: 3/10
Unlike Paddack, Varland doesn't pose an obvious durability concern. He's been very healthy and dependable. The issue here is performance, and whether the righty can elevate to a level where he'd be in line for a playoff start. Right now, his future as a postseason difference-maker appears to be out of the bullpen, but he'd obviously be a much bigger asset if he could tap into some of that relief dominance in a starting role.
What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
Varland has shown signs of being a good MLB starter at times, and one who can handle the pressure of, say, making his major-league debut in Yankee Stadium. With nearly 100 MLB innings under his belt, he's ahead of the game when it comes to poise and stamina, He just needs to advance his stuff to a level where it's going to play against elite lineups multiple times on the biggest stage. If Varland can effectively incorporate the cutter that contributed to his bullpen breakthrough into his starting mix, that could be an interesting development.
What Do the Twins Need?
Obviously, it will be helpful if any of the four non-López starters elevate their trust level, but regardless, it seems clear that the Twins need to add at least one outside starter this offseason who checks in with a trust level of a least 8/10 (which is around where I'd have pegged Gray).
That's the main lens through which I'll be looking at any offseason additions to the starting corps. It's less about upgrading the rotation, and more about making upgrades to the playoff rotation–which is why adding anything less than a Maeda-caliber starter would be unproductive.
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