Who Deserves the Blame for Another Second-Half Collapse by the Twins?

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

An injured Joe Ryan was getting lit up. That’s why he went on the injured list. His injury caused him to pitch poorly in three straight games after the All Star game, which they lost. The rotation had an ERA of 4.75 in August. A healthy Joe Ryan would have helped. An injured Joe Ryan lost them games.

Joe Ryan's career 2nd half ERA is 4.96.  That's higher than 4.75!  He's terrible in the 2nd half, that's who he is.  Zebby pitching instead of 2nd Half Joe helped this team.  Zebby had a 2.90 ERA in 5 starts.  The rotation ERA would have been much worse if 2nd Half Joe was getting those starts instead of Zebby.  

Also, the Twins are 11-12 in games started by Joe Ryan this year.  Saying the Twins would have won 2-4 more games with 2nd Half Joe is absurd.  

And again, every team has injuries and the Twins have been middle of the pack this year.  Blaming a bad August on 1 pitching injury is such a loser mindset.  May as well blame it on fans not showing up at the park.  

I will actually go with 'What is a predictable regression to the mean,"  Alex. 

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

An injured Joe Ryan lost them games.

I also wonder if an injured Joe Ryan was forthright with the team about his health?

Just a weird season for him all around. Guy leaves after one batter with elbow soreness; everyone fears the worst and meanwhile he doesn't miss a start (and was fantastic in that start, by the way). I think mentally something's just been a bit off on the "Experience" this season. 

3 hours ago, Peter said:

Full healthy team twins are the best in MLB!!! Kids aren’t ready for prime time yet! Future looks bright as twins are going to win multiple division championships and World Series!! 

Peter.... I officially nominate you for the TD site mascot... eternally optimistic and always trying to pump up the fan base despite the score or standings.... 

2 minutes ago, GNess said:

The facts are clear - the Twins haven't been good enough for most seasons for the last three+ decades.

The Twins last world series appearance was 35 years ago - 10 other clubs are riding 20+ year streaks and another 6 are between 10-19 years. That's over half of the membership in MLB. The margin of error for most teams is thin.

It's a damn shame Gardenhire's 2002-2010 teams never broke through to a World Series. They were certainly good enough. 

3 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

It's the entire structure. The Twins have spent plenty of time talking about building a sustainable contender. Now they have to prove they know how to actually do it.

 

I'm kind of here.

Not mentioned yet: The minor league system/philosophy.  Position players arrive at MLB unprepared for the tasks they should have mastered earlier.  Outfielders throw to the wrong base or miss cut off men.  Players are suddenly thrust into defensive positions they rarely played in the minors.  The can't execute a freaking bunt in the bottom of the 10th because they were never asked to bunt in a game in the minors (Ross... last night, 2 bunts in over 2000 minor league plate appearances).  Starting pitchers run out of gas at 80 pitches because that's all they ever throw in the minors.  And finally, quite trying to turn every player into a pull/power hitter.  

I simply believe this team was set up to fail going back to the fire sale last year.  To remove that much talent from your team and spend nothing to replace it feels irresponsible if you want to compete.  Tom can say he wants to compete, and perhaps he does - If I had to pick someone to blame, I'd put it on Joe Pohlad, because while he does seem to enjoy the game of baseball - he did a poor job managing the team, thus forcing the fire sale in the first place.  Hopefully its a one year hangover from that trade deadline disaster.  

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Tom Pohlad: Not his fault

Tom Pohlad took over control of the team he and his family had cut out from the knees, halted a rebuild in the middle of its execution to foolishly change course of direction, and then presented a bunch of flowery PR statements to win over rubes. 

It's almost entirely his fault. The other share of blame goes to his obscenely wealthy family members. 

57 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Twins August Record 2025: 11-17

Twins August Record 2026: 9-17

You're right, the season isn't done yet. But it's worth pointing out that the Twins had a worse August after being buyers than they had after being sellers. 

If the Twins fall 4-5 games short of a WC spot, it's the August collapse that probably made the biggest difference. Maybe it was just the overall quality of the competition. 

I would argue being buyers is a stretch, sure they attempted to approve the very, very back of the rotation, and brought in a couple capable bullpen guys, which would have been a decent/good improvement for a team that was 5 or 10 guys over but it was a .500. 

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

Hoping that Lewis would be a player from the past that didn't happen. He is the new Buxton,a player who is hurt or slumping. 

Lewis is no Buxton. Lewis isn't terrible, but people have to give up on the idea that Lewis is on the verge of becoming an All-Star. One key difference from Buxton is that Buxton never displayed the lack of humility or unwillingness to take feedback that is common with Lewis. You can hope for a positive surprise in the future, but it is more likely that what we are seeing now is close to peak Lewis.

Lewis has been better since his return, but his xwOBA over this time period - expected results based on how he hits the ball - is the same as Josh Bell's full season xwOBA, which is tied for 70th among 142 qualified players. Further, most of his value was produced in June, when he was just back from AAA, while his wRC+ was below replacement level in July and August, even with his incredible first half of August. A median hitter is not a bad player, but it's also not a tremendously valuable one either, especially for a first baseman. And this comparison of Royce's stats since his return against everyone else's full year stats completely ignores his horrible first two months of 2026.

This article concerns what went wrong for the Twins in 2026. One key answer is that they refused to accept the reality of who they are, but instead convinced themselves they were better than they actually were based on short samples. We need to accept the reality that the totality of Royce's performance is mediocre. He is not comparable to Buxton, who, although injured frequently, is one of the best players in the game when he is healthy.

10 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I simply believe this team was set up to fail going back to the fire sale last year.  To remove that much talent from your team and spend nothing to replace it feels irresponsible if you want to compete.  Tom can say he wants to compete, and perhaps he does - If I had to pick someone to blame, I'd put it on Joe Pohlad, because while he does seem to enjoy the game of baseball - he did a poor job managing the team, thus forcing the fire sale in the first place.  Hopefully its a one year hangover from that trade deadline disaster.  

The further we get into Tom Pohlad's reign, the more favorably I look upon Joe (which still isn't good). 

The fire sale was entirely the right direction. You can argue over the individual trades, but that team sucked, was directionless and needed a reboot. The failures in the trades falls at the feet of the front office, not at all on Joe Pohlad. 

As for the payroll slashing, I don't think that was at all a Joe Pohlad decision. He was just the figurehead of the Pohlad family that dictated that to him, in my opinion. He was a bad public relations guy, but I don't care at all about that. 

30 minutes ago, GNess said:

Yes, five of those seasons they won 90+ games, but it didn't translate to postseason success as they only made to the ALCS one time. But I agree those were some pretty good years and the Twins had some real talent.

Losses like last night are a good reminder that some baseball fans have to cope with legitimate postseason heartbreak. I can not imagine how a Blue Jays fan dealt with last year's Game 7 loss. Seattle blowing a lead to get to the World Series for the first time must've been devastating. 

We had a few fun runs to the postseason in the 2000s though! And I assume many here are also Vikings fans. So we get it. 

We all knew coming in this team had big shortcomings that were evident throughout the season, Weaknesses have been magnified. But, I do think this team has played hard. I never got the idea they were intimidated, not even by the Yankees. When I thought they were overmatched, they would beat up somebody and win a series. Then you would see the inconsistencies, not lack of effort, but instead lack of performance.

I think the time is right to move on from Buck. You need to know from game to game who your cf is going to be. Even when he is semi healthy you don't know what you are going to get at the plate. Your best hitter should not go through streaks where he looks like your worst hitter. Often times with Buxton out, we had Kreidler and Gray in the lineup at the same time. Should not happen. What we need to do is pick up a hitter who can lengthen the lineup, similar to what Henry Cruz did a while back. Those guys give you a professional approach almost every time up. The hitter could come in a Buxton or Joe Ryan trade

I think I am more optimistic about the starting pitching than most. Forget about the negative, I have seen more than enough to be excited about Matthews and Preilipp. Both have a bulldog mentality. Preilipps makeup reminds me of former WS lefty. Mark Buehrle. With a year of experience it will be fun to watch both work next year. Put them with Bradley, Pablo, Abel, Festa, Ober(?) lol, Kremer, and a positive addition and/or minor league surprise, and who knows? I might even be forgetting someone. 

I am of the opinion that Ryan should be traded this offseason. I would want to avoid the temptation to keep him next season at the trade deadline. It is another way to find his eventual replacement.

The front office will have to figure out the catching. Hind site, Jeffers should have been traded, especially if he is dead set on testing the waters. 

I like Shelton. He is a breath of fresh air over the head of human relations, Rocco. I feel like we have a baseball guy in he dugout.

As for Zoll, he has surprised me. He may be waited longer than some of us would have liked on bringing up Jenkins, and I don't get the roster construction with three catchers when Jackson is hardly ever used, but the roster, game to game, seemed more settled. There wasn't the shuttling back and forth every other game.

I think we have gotten more from this team than I expected. I love the emergence of Keaschall, Lee, and Clemons. They are easy to root for.  With guys like Jenkins and the rest on the way, I look forward to next season.

The “failure” of this years roster falls heavily on Falvey. Pohlad made the right move in getting rid of him, but you can blame him for not doing it earlier in the offseason. Remember that Falvey bet on Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Wallner and Lopez/Ryan. Not to mention guys like Julien, Miranda, Gallo, etc…We saw those teams collapse down the stretch in ‘24 and ‘25. Say what you will about Joe Pohlad and payroll reduction after the 2023 season, but Falvey still had comparable payrolls to other AL Central teams and the Twins performance didn’t compare to Cleveland, for example.
The failure of the position player pipeline to produce major league ready players to step in and contribute to the core is/was the problem. You can give Falvey credit for the pitching pipeline and the current crop of youngsters. We’ll have to see how Jenkins, Keaschall, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and others turn out. 
If you watched last years team after the trade deadline, your expectations should have been low. I consider this years mediocre team a success. Many will argue that Pohlad or Zoll are to blame for not completing the sell off and rebuild during the offseason (I expected it to continue), but who was really in charge? Falvey was around until January so he was still calling the shots. It’s going to take more than one offseason and trade deadline to turn the ship around. The process is underway now, so full steam ahead. 
As others have said this wasn’t a collapse at all. It actually was the team playing at or above expectations. 

Who to blame? Primarily Falvey. His deadline gutting especially the BP. He did nothing to address that problem during the offseason. He schooled Shelton & Zoll in how he wanted the team to operate. 

I credit Tom Pohlad for a much-needed house cleaning, although Falvey should have been fired from the start. I credit Sheldon for back-pedaling after it was obvious that the original plan wasn't going to work, especially the terrible defense & creating a good clubhouse. I credit Zoll for bringing to us the best deadline we had for as long as I remember. I credit the players for giving their all even when the odds were against them. The hole was just too immense to climb out of. The team didn't crater; they just couldn't maintain the energy that was needed to by-pass the teams ahead of them. 

There were some things that I didn't agree with Tom Pohlad, Shelton & Zoll had done, But I'll give them a break being that they were navigating new waters & what they had to overcome.

To clarify my previous post, I should have said that Falvey’s player drafting and development philosophy has so far been the real failure. He drafted bat first, no defense players that did not develop the defense side of their game. Then they were promoted through the system based on offense only. The Twins are a poor defensive team today as a result. They also don’t run the bases well either. Player development failed at teaching a lot of the fundamentals. Thats on Falvey. 
Give Falvey credit for the current pitching pipeline. The current youngsters may salvage his reputation if they turn out to be the successful core of future teams. We’ll have to wait and see. 
 

37 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The further we get into Tom Pohlad's reign, the more favorably I look upon Joe (which still isn't good). 

The fire sale was entirely the right direction. You can argue over the individual trades, but that team sucked, was directionless and needed a reboot. The failures in the trades falls at the feet of the front office, not at all on Joe Pohlad. 

As for the payroll slashing, I don't think that was at all a Joe Pohlad decision. He was just the figurehead of the Pohlad family that dictated that to him, in my opinion. He was a bad public relations guy, but I don't care at all about that. 

I see you point, but I needed to add something more..... Regardless of the first name of the ownership face Joe or Tom - their decision to say 'Go ahead and sign Correa', and then 2 years later tell Falvey 'you know what, I take that back' was irresponsible.  Imagine your wife telling you to go ahead and buy the new Ferrari, and then 2 years later when the loan is upside down to say - you need to return that (ok bad analogy).  But you can't tell someone its ok to spend, and then change your mind when you have long term contracts involved.  So while Falvey didn't make the best decisions - to have the rug pulled out from under you when trying to layout a spending plan feels like an impossible way to do business.  Once a contract is signed, you can't just 'change your mind' and expect no poor outcomes.

53 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The August 21 to 29 Stretch was bad.

1-7 over those 8 games was a body blow. Just a 4-4 over that stretch would put the Twins at 15-15 over the past 30 games because the Twins have been 12-18 over that stretch. 

The Twins were 12-18 over the past 30 games and the team would be 70-70 with a 15-15 stretch and a half game behind Cleveland. Cleveland went 15-15 over their past 30 games so there are a pile of teams in the middle during this 30 game stretch of the season. 

The margins are too thin to throw blame. 

 

 

 

So there's no reason to blame anyone for the margins being thin in the first place?

Nobody's performance to improve or upgrade? No mistakes to avoid in the future? 

It's hard to look at several years of Twins history and say that there aren't patterns of sub-par decision-making, poor roster construction, and failure to create and stick to good plans.

Amongst others things, Kreidler, Larnach and Lewis all turned into pumpkins.  Hard to make up for injuries when the depth regresses.

I wouldn't even call this a collapse. This was expected to happen Us twins fans are just to greedy i guess. Rocco Got robbed last year. It was Falvey and Joe Pholad last year our new front office is fine. Its not like we were in playoff contention anyways at least we have even made it this far.