Which Twins Players Are Playing Their Last Games in Minnesota?

This is a strange article to write without acknowledging that the new CBA could increase our spending a lot, and that could easily change the value of a guy like Ryan to the team when he no longer represents as huge a slice of the payroll.

On to some notes on names mentioned above:

Buxton is only being paid for 80-100 games, so he's only eating up a 40 man slot when he's not available.  Enjoy his game while he's on the field and then enjoy the kids in CF when he's out. His play and the $15m he's earning is not what's standing between the Twins and the World Series. 

They kept Jefffers because they know he needs a 3-4 year deal in his first real chance at a Big Contract so he's absolutely going to reject a QO (barring a massive injury in the last days before a QO must be offered.)  That move was predicated on a calculation that the QO rules wouldn't change too much in the new CBA, so there is risk here, but the pick before round 2 holds a lot of value to the team. It'll be offered and he'll get more than 3/$50m from someone.

Lewis is a mercurial player, and while that means he can carry a team for stretches it also means that he needs to be carried some months.  That's fine at a defensive spot, or even a more middle-of-the-spectrum position like 2B, but good MLB teams need more from 1B.  Royce starts getting more expensive next year (signed a $5.7m extension) and his production is barely average. The best you can say is he's avoiding injury much better, he's stealing bases pretty well and his hot streaks are magical.  I'd spend the winter pretending he's the second coming of Don Mincher, a great 1B and the future of the franchise, and then I'd trade him to the first team that thinks they're fleecing me. 

I think Shelton is the one with a man-crush on Bell.  To be honest Josh has been who he always is, a good DH and a very good veteran teammate.  I wouldn't mind seeing him back again in such a young clubhouse, but there are just too many DH gloves on this roster to leave much room for him. I could see this one go either way.

Wallner's bat has slowed and he's getting devoured by top velo in St Paul. He might get a minor league deal with another team, but his future here is dark.  I would like to call out the team for their poor handling of him once they gave up on him as an MLB player.  He should have been moved to anyone for anything or even non-tendered back when he could have changed rosters. As much as this franchise gets lauded for being so player-friendly it really did Matt a disservice this summer. 

Ober is a non-tender that would survive to sign a smaller deal with the Twins. He's not a bullpen guy, he's not going to make our rotation, and other teams are not going to trust his eephus stuff.  Taylor is a retirement candidate, so thanks, good luck, here's your gold watch. Swing by the booth when you're in town.  Larnach has to go, and I think they've learned their lesson on signing a guy with the assumption that he can be traded later, so I expect a non-tender. Jenkins can fight for a role in spring training but he'll have to beat ERod soundly to take his spot, given the options situation. Martin's only claim on anything is as a RH platoon bat. He's not a good a fielder as the kids and he's not going to beat them as a hitter. 

1 hour ago, Eris said:

Because Larnach was / is the 3rd or 4th best hitter on the Twins and is approximately in the 75th percentile as an MLB hitter.  Players who are above average hitters have value. The problem with Larnach is he should be a full time DH and the Twins also have 5 or 6 players whose best position is DH. 

Larnach is in almost the same position that Eddie Rosario was when the Twins non-tendered him. In Larnach's case there's even less potential upside; he's older, he's never been particular good defensively, and he simply cannot hit LHP. Rosario was better against LHP (still not good), had been a good fielder (that was basically done by the time the Twins non-tendered him though), and was a year younger. But they made the correct decision and moved on from Rosario, who outside of a hot 2 months for the stretch run for Atl was never a starting quality player again and is out of the league.

He's a decent hitter who offers nothing else and is unplayable against LHP. The odds the Twins commit $7-8M to that player when they have loads of young OF talent seems highly unlikely. I would expect them to do the same thing to Larnach that they did to Rosario: try and trade him and when they find no buyers for his limited skill set, non-tender him. Someone will then sign him to be a platoon bat for roughly what he's making this season or less, but it won't be the Twins because even if they wanted him back at a lower price, pride always gets in the way and he'll almost certainly take a job anywhere else rather than take a pay cut for the Twins. (this is true of almost every team; it's not unique to the Twins)

46 minutes ago, Patzky said:

How does anyone feel about Ober as long relief.. assuming Pablo and Abel are ready next spring.

As a big Bailey Ober fan who doesn't want to see him pushed out of the league I wouldn't mind it, but I don't think it would solve the problem this bullpen faces. The bullpen now is a heck of a lot better than opening day, but it's still got a real lack of upside, and adding Ober would only make that problem worse. I threw together a graphic of Twins relievers who have thrown enough pitches this year that the Pitching+ model can get a decent read on them, and it basically thinks this bullpen is every bit as bad as they looked. What this group needs is more arms that throw hard with at least fringe average control. 

1 hour ago, gman said:

The team could resign Jeffers with the intention of keeping him 1-2 years of a multiyear deal. They will need a decent catcher in 2027 and having someone to share the load with Lackay in 2028 would be good. You could(?) front load a 4 year deal for him to make him easier to trade and make it more likely he could sign a team friendlier contract. But I expect they are more likely to try to back load a deal. a 3-4 year deal at 17-18 mil per might get it done.

I also expect Larnach, Martin, Bell, Wallner, Gray, Jackson and Lewis to be gone. They could plan on Clemons for first base. And have Buxton play twice a week in the outfield and otherwise DH and fill in as an injury replacement. This might get him in the lineup more throughout the year. 

They should/could add back Sands, Paredes, Lopez, Abel, and Festa. 

 

If Jeffers leaves, Jackson will be back.   I expect Larnach and Bell back.  Lewis to be used in a trade with either Gabby or ERod.  Banda and Minter I would like to see as well.   Festa is an unknown.

Great comp of Rosario and Larnach,  jmlease.  It really is too bad the Astros owner nixed the trade because Bryan Abreu would have been a great arm to add to our BP and would have become our future Closer.  I would revisit this trade with Houston and add a minor league prospect to clinch the deal.  The Astros clearly need a bat like Lanach and Abreu has fallen out of favor in Houston.

Every name listed in the op makes a lot of sense, and others have pointed out MANY other names that should be on the list.  Unfortunately, many have succinctly explained why Zoll would bring back a guy like Bell, who has pretty much done exactly what we hoped he would do but who clearly doesn't fit on any iteration of a future Twins roster.

And this is part and parcel of why this ownership and FO are so incredibly frustrating.  In 2025 we gutted our BP.  Some of the guys needed to be moved.  Some, like Varland, clearly should have been kept.  It was like the Twins started off with a plan and then went on a drunken spiral they just couldn't pull themselves out of.

I still maintain BIG changes of our roster are needed, and I further maintain that even with massive changes, the A.L. Central is so mediocre that we could still contend.  After the Twins failed to trade Jeffers for something useful at the deadline, it would appear a QO is essential to at least secure draft pick compensation.  A $23 million salary for 2027 would be tremendously bad payroll management for Jeffers, a career .243/.328/.430 hitter with a .758 OPS.  But Catcher is a HUGE weak spot and Jeffers for 2027 would be an excellent bridge to Vahn Lackey in 2028.   

Alas, his agent is Scott Boras.  No chance he accepts the QO but at least a high draft pick mitigates the FO malfeasance.  I'd use that pick on a high potential pitcher, which is what we should have been getting from the Yankees, just with a little more seasoning.  

It could very well be all of them.

Jeffers would be nice to keep even if it is on a the QO.

Ober - unless they KNOW why his velocity has dropped AND are extremely confident they can fix it, he will be gone.

Lewis will not be gone over the winter.

Wallner is streaky, but you can't be 60/40 streaky when the 60 is the BAD.  Again, not sure how the coaches haven't fixed this.  At times he looks and hits like he is in the Zone and then other times it looks like he isn't in the same galaxy as the Zone.  60/40 might be generous.  I thought he might be a good DH but that thought has left the building.

It is possible BuxTrain moves to one of the corners or is DH.

There is a lot of potential so it really is on the FO and coaching staff to maximize the team.

But also, this often the Debbie Downer of fanbases.  (Thanks Pohlad family)

Larnach and Lewis need to be gone. I agree with the rest of the list, too. But Larnach and Lewis especially. We have Larnachs replacement already, ERod. Lewis and his bad attitude will be addition by subtraction. 

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Considering Rodriguez has to be on the 26-man next season and they're likely to give Jenkins every chance to win a job as well, there's very little chance Larnach is back. Keep in mind, Zoll tried to trade Larnach at the deadline. Again, why exactly does Zoll want to bring Larnach back? 

Maybe we'll see Ober back, but as disappointing and frustrating as Ober has been, and as concerning as his loss velocity is...Ober actually has the second highest bWAR of any pitcher on the roster.

Kreidler is a utility guy who will likely be competing with Ben Ross to keep his job. He ain't the reason the Twins are out of contention, and if he's back on the roster it'll hardly be a disaster.

But we have little idea about what Zoll will do to the roster under Tom Pohlad's ownership and having a full off-season in which to work. We don't know what the payroll budget is going to be, we don't know who will be available, we don't know what the market will be like. We don't know if they're going to commit to young players in the OF...but it sure seems likely since Keaschall seems to be off the dirt, Rodriguez can't go back to AAA in 2027, and they love Jenkins (who might need to make some adjustments in AAA, but also might just need to work in the offseason and keep playing in MLB).

 Zoll tried to trade Larnach at the deadline. Again, why exactly does Zoll want to bring Larnach back? NO ONE WANTED HIM !!!!!

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

The DH will be more by committee in 2027 as we want to play Jenkins, Rodriguez, Buxton and Keaschall all at the same time and they belong in the OF or DH, when the OF is filled with the other three.

Do we really want to play roulette with the DH?  What happens when of the four mentioned goes down?  Batting DH is not necessarily a "breather". but can take a fielding player out of their rhythm. Bell is the consummate DH.  Bell was also in the top three of almost every hitting category for the Twins.  For his production, he was very affordable.  Also, he is a clubhouse guy. 

When Larnach is put in a role where he can succeed he's an above average MLB hitter. That has value. But at this point in his career he's got enough seniority that he gets paid like an average player, and he's not a well-rounded enough player to quite be worth it to any team watching their pennies.  Houston was dancing along the edge of the luxury tax this year and didn't want a $5m LF to cost tens of millions more by crossing that line.  

Larnach is headed to arb again this winter, so he can still be traded to someone. I expect that to happen sooner rather than later.