When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

 

If Syndergaard and Scherzer are both "available" come the trade deadline, it would be an interesting debate in regards to which direction to go.

 

What would you do if this is what we would give up for both?

 

A: Syndergaard

FA in 2022. Young, cheap. Chance of extending if all goes well. 

We give up Lewis, Graterol, Gordon.

 

B: Scherzer

FA in 2022. 34, but still one of the best in the game. VERY expensive. 

We give up: Graterol, Rortvedt and Gordon. Washington eats 1/3 of his contract. 

No way Washington accepts that offer for Scherzer. I understand he's getting paid a lot, but he's actually worth what he gets paid. There's a difference between the Nats moving Scherzer and the Cubs trying to move Darvish. They're both making a lot of money, but one of them is actually worth the contract. Scherzer would easily cost Royce, Graterol, and throw a dart for the other top-10 prospect we're throwing in.

 

That being said, if they could find a way to fleece Washington and get Scherzer cheaper than that, that would be amazing.

I understand the differences between Sale and Scherzer, but I am not sure it makes much practical difference in terms of what actually happens here. It's not like Washington is obligated to deal Scherzer for X% of the Sale return, even if we estimate Scherzer's surplus value as only X% of Sale's.

Right, but then the outcome is that he stays put, not that someone pays Sale price for him.

The Kia dealership isn't obligated to sell me anything, but the result of them demanding Lamborghini money for a Sorrento is that they don't sell the Sorrento.

No way Washington accepts that offer for Scherzer. I understand he's getting paid a lot, but he's actually worth what he gets paid. There's a difference between the Nats moving Scherzer and the Cubs trying to move Darvish. They're both making a lot of money, but one of them is actually worth the contract. Scherzer would easily cost Royce, Graterol, and throw a dart for the other top-10 prospect we're throwing in.

 

That being said, if they could find a way to fleece Washington and get Scherzer cheaper than that, that would be amazing.

I don't agree with that asking price for Scherzer. I'd think Royce Lewis alone would get it done 100 times out of 100.

I think we are getting ahead of ourselves.  We have so many players playing above any realistic expectations that once these players come back to normal who knows what will happen.   Many of our hitters have already at homre run levels that if you would have said they would hit that many for the entire season you would have thought, "Great season Jorge Polanco with your 9 home runs".

 

Hopefully it will continue.  

I don't agree with that asking price for Scherzer. I'd think Royce Lewis alone would get it done 100 times out of 100.

A Scherzer deal would be something like Royce Lewis, 2 others from our top 30 prospects, we pay full salary for Max, and probably more still.

 

A 1 for 1 would be accepted 0 of 100 times from Washington's perspective. You dont trade 2.5 years of the best pitcher in baseball for 1 low minors prospect. Vlad jr wouldn't get Max 1 for 1.

 

But Scherzer is not for sale and wont be at any point this season.

Edited May 24, 2019 by SomeGuy

I actually think we might be actual sellers at the deadline, as well as buyers. This team was built to tear down. Lots of expiring deals and 1 year contracts. I doubt the plan was for Cruz, Cron, Sano, Rosie, Schoop, Castro, Parker, Gibby, Perez, Odo, May and Pineda to all be on the team the entire year. I doubt the idea was for Gordon, Arraez, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Vasquez, Kiriloff and Rooker to remain in the minors all year.

 

We may buy, but I'm almost positive we'll be doing some selling to restock the farm as well. Schoop, Castro, Sano and Rosie I think may be shopped along with May, Parker, Pineda and Gibby depending on our adds.

 

I hope Washington can be talked into dealing Scherzer. That team is about a bad week from being blown up, IMO.

 

But that will require at least one of the A list Twins prospects. And I'd do that in a heartbeat.

You, sir, are a codger after my own heart. The nats going to sell mode has me all a-flutter. Why stop at Scherzer? See what they want for Doolittle and Strasburg. Then take the deal we like the most.

If this was true, I think we'd have seen similar trades in the past, right? Surely some team, at some time, would have wanted 2-3 years of a bona fide ace (albeit an expensive one) more than a top 10 prospect who's 2-3 years away, right?

 

The closest recent example I can recall was Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, although that was a 2 month rental (and a bit of an outlier trade already!). If the 2016 Yankees had Scherzer circa 2019, I don't think they so readily trade him for Torres -- Scherzer would be much harder to replace in 2017-2018.

 

Russell for Samardzija is another one that was largely one-for-one (sorry, Jason Hammel), although Shark then was still demonstrably worse than Scherzer now (and was only controlled for 1.5 years).

I didn't mean strictly 1 for 1, though I can see how it was written that way.

I meant we shouldn't have to give up another of our big 3 in addition to Lewis.

A Scherzer deal would be something like Royce Lewis, 2 others from our top 30 prospects, we pay full salary for Max, and probably more still.

 

A 1 for 1 would be accepted 0 of 100 times from Washington's perspective. You dont trade 2.5 years of the best pitcher in baseball for 1 low minors prospect. Vlad jr wouldn't get Max 1 for 1.

 

But Scherzer is not for sale and wont be at any point this season.

See above, it was worded poorly on my part. Just meant you shouldn't need to include another of Kirrillof or Graterol in addition to Lewis.

I get that winning now is a priority....but we have a lot of guys that will need to get paid (Schoop, Caron, Gibson, etc.). This team as we know it isn’t staying together beyond this year.

 

I feel like Larnach wouldn’t command a whole lot. A 22 year old college kid who is supposed to be all bat, but has a mid-.700 OPS in single A......I just can’t imagine anyone clamoring for Larnach, aside from a throw-in second or third peice.

 

I’d rather not trade Balazovic or Javier (don’t think you’d get requisite value - Balazovic does t have a long track record and Javier has had injury issues).

 

Go ahead and trade Gordon all you want, but nobody’s giving anything significant for him.

 

Lewis, Alex K., and Graterol should be absolutely untouchable (Graterol may be better if promoted to th MLB than the guy we get in return).

 

Guys like Gonzalves, Thorpe, etc., are all but afterthoughts. We’re not getting anything there.

 

I don’t doubt that we’ll make a trade for some bullpen help. But I just don’t see how you can pull the trigger on a starter at the price they command.

 

I’ve heard absurd takes by guys like Zulgad (not a fan, ahem-hack-ahem), that Sano should’ve been traded long ago, and is a piece right now (you’d get pennies on the dollar).

 

Bottom line: I’d have to be blown away to trade the premier guys in the system (high-end starter with multiple years of control). Nobody else will command much. It’s nice to think about landing Thor. It’s more realistic to beef up the bullpen with a couple solid,but unspectacular, MRs.

I get that winning now is a priority....but we have a lot of guys that will need to get paid (Schoop, Caron, Gibson, etc.). This team as we know it isn’t staying together beyond this year.

I feel like Larnach wouldn’t command a whole lot. A 22 year old college kid who is supposed to be all bat, but has a mid-.700 OPS in single A......I just can’t imagine anyone clamoring for Larnach, aside from a throw-in second or third peice.

I’d rather not trade Balazovic or Javier (don’t think you’d get requisite value - Balazovic does t have a long track record and Javier has had injury issues).

Go ahead and trade Gordon all you want, but nobody’s giving anything significant for him.

Lewis, Alex K., and Graterol should be absolutely untouchable (Graterol may be better if promoted to th MLB than the guy we get in return).

Guys like Gonzalves, Thorpe, etc., are all but afterthoughts. We’re not getting anything there.

I don’t doubt that we’ll make a trade for some bullpen help. But I just don’t see how you can pull the trigger on a starter at the price they command.

I’ve heard absurd takes by guys like Zulgad (not a fan, ahem-hack-ahem), that Sano should’ve been traded long ago, and is a piece right now (you’d get pennies on the dollar).

Bottom line: I’d have to be blown away to trade the premier guys in the system (high-end starter with multiple years of control). Nobody else will command much. It’s nice to think about landing Thor. It’s more realistic to beef up the bullpen with a couple solid,but unspectacular, MRs.

Perhaps I’m wrong, but I gotta believe it’s possible for us to acquire all of Givens, Doolittle, and Stroman (all of which are more than just unspectacular middle relievers) without having to surrender any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach, Duran, Miranda, or Javier. Yeah, our system’s depth may take a significant hit because of our reluctancy, but at least the quality will remain and will still be available for us to utilize during the offseason and next season’s deadline.

 

However, while I realize that not all top prospects pan out, I also have a really good feeling about Lewis, Kirilloff, and Graterol, which why I’d only consider these 3 as absolutely untouchable. Perhaps this is blind faith, but I’m willing to die on this hill.

Why would one of the (now) favorites for the ALCS sell? I'm baffled by this post.

Not sellers per se. I suspect we'll be both because their stated goal is sustained success. I'm not sure they can help themselves. Same reason we traded for jaime Garcia then traded him days later. We feel like we can trade some of our talent and still win. Arraez for Schoop, Kiriloff for Crohn, etc. If we add people, we'll have to make room. There's no chance we resign everyone next year. We'll be tempted to grab a return before they go. But agreed, not at the expense of the division.

Not sellers per se. I suspect we'll be both because their stated goal is sustained success. I'm not sure they can help themselves. Same reason we traded for jaime Garcia then traded him days later. We feel like we can trade some of our talent and still win. Arraez for Schoop, Kiriloff for Crohn, etc. If we add people, we'll have to make room. There's no chance we resign everyone next year. We'll be tempted to grab a return before they go. But agreed, not at the expense of the division.

Cron is under team control for 2020.