What the Chris Archer Signing Does for the Twins Rotation

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I have him at 15 starts and 65 innings.  If he gets to 22 starts expect around 90 to 100 innings tops.  He won’t average 5 innings per start as he won’t be ramped up to go beyond 5 for a while and innings limit to protect his arm after so few innings the last few years.  He will likely get piggybacked by Jax to get 6/7 innings From the pair.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.  

I'm probably a bit optimistic on the innings, but I do see him as someone who can go deeper in games if healthy. I don't think he's going to be a 3-4 inning combo guy, and they'll try to stretch him out if his shoulder can hack it.

While calling him a depth pitcher is accurate, in this particular case the word depth is completely false. Depth implies that you already had at least the minimum of 5 in a 5 man rotation.

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

 

Kyle Gibson went from a disappointment to an all-star when he left.

 

The Rangers just made Gibby an early free agency offer that seemed very generous for a guy with huge illness question marks who had barely pitched the year he signed. I would've loved Gibson back on MN but not for 3 yrs/30m. Obviously since he got that contract other teams valued him. He was developed in MN. Far from the worst first round pick pitcher in Twins history. Kohl Stewart was much worse.

Every team has pitchers they let go and they catch on elsewhere. We have picked up several waiver wire claims who have turned out well, Wisler being one of them. Belisle was another. I'm sure Wes' coaching methods work with some guys and don't work with others. 

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm probably a bit optimistic on the innings, but I do see him as someone who can go deeper in games if healthy. I don't think he's going to be a 3-4 inning combo guy, and they'll try to stretch him out if his shoulder can hack it.

I think the lower innings total will be to protect his arm.  He hasn't really pitched in 2 years.  Asking him to pitch in 25 to 30 games and pitch 150-180 innings seems like alot to ask out of that arm of his.  I suspect he will start the season with 4 or 5 starts in the 3-4 innings per start then go up to 5 and occasionally 6 innings.  I do think they will limit his innings so he does not go over 110-120 for the season or more accurately they will probably limit alot of his starts to 80-85 pitches and see how deep he can get into the games.  They will treat him the same as they treated Ober last season.  

From the National Library of Medicine on TOS and pitching performance: 

Conclusion: 74% of professional pitchers who undergo surgical intervention for TOS are able to return to play at the MLB level. With regards to performance, the majority of metrics were unchanged from prior to surgery, indicating return at a similar functional level.

Pitching metrics demonstrated that pitcher ERA remained inferior postoperatively compared to baseline preoperative performance (3.66 vs 4.50, p = 0.03). Fastball velocity (p = 0.94) and strike percentage (p = 0.50) were equivalent to pre-injury performance.

Me: "Similar" functional level, but still reduced as far as I read it. The ERA difference seems significantly worse. Reports say Chris Archer is a "smart pitcher" and if he can figure out how to be effective post TOS , then he can help the Twins some.

6 hours ago, dex8425 said:

The Rangers just made Gibby an early free agency offer that seemed very generous for a guy with huge illness question marks who had barely pitched the year he signed. I would've loved Gibson back on MN but not for 3 yrs/30m. Obviously since he got that contract other teams valued him. He was developed in MN. Far from the worst first round pick pitcher in Twins history. Kohl Stewart was much worse.

Every team has pitchers they let go and they catch on elsewhere. We have picked up several waiver wire claims who have turned out well, Wisler being one of them. Belisle was another. I'm sure Wes' coaching methods work with some guys and don't work with others. 

Not to mention Gibby's first season in Texas was a train wreck. He may finally have nibbled his way to some success!

I don't see where being "stretched out" equates to innings pitched in exhibition games, especially this year.

The biggest weakness the Twins had coming into spring training was lack of quality starting pitching.  It still is the biggest weakness by far on this team!!  The Archer signing does very little for me.  Could work out but probably won't.  We finished near the bottom in all of MLB in pitching last year.  This does nothing to change that. The jury is still out on this team contending.  This is not a major league pitching staff at the moment.  It appears no more changes are coming before the start of the season.  We appear to have good offense and defense but not much pitching, again!  We spent 35 mil on a superstar shortstop.  If this pitching staff is what we are left with, then the Correa signing is confusing and maybe a waste of resources.  Unless of course the great Correa can pitch lol.

While I would rather have Pineda, Archer could be a nice surprise if he can start 22 games and win 10. His health is the big question and he hasn't had much of a team behind him recently. I don't like the incentives deal since the team can control that to not have to pay him and that could cause hard feelings. If Archer doesn't do well, we still have some good young arms to count on. I like Archer who is a local, central NC product whom I saw in high school and at Durham briefly.

This signing just doesn't seem like a realistic move.  I certainly hope that multiple Twins personnel actually saw Archer pitch BEFORE the contract was offered.  Considering recent performance and the TOS, the 3.5 MM guaranty  seems like a MASSIVE overpay.. REALLY, 2.75 MM this year and a 10 MM option for 2023 ???  Seems like CRAZY terms to me - greatly benefiting Mr Archer as opposed to the Twins.   Should have been more oriented towards incentives and that 2023 option price is totally unrealistic.   Archer must have one hell of an agent.  I'd say this was another (like Correa) one and done, but I seriously doubt that Archer will make it through the "ONE".

26 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

This signing just doesn't seem like a realistic move.  I certainly hope that multiple Twins personnel actually saw Archer pitch BEFORE the contract was offered.  Considering recent performance and the TOS, the 3.5 MM guaranty  seems like a MASSIVE overpay.. REALLY, 2.75 MM this year and a 10 MM option for 2023 ???  Seems like CRAZY terms to me - greatly benefiting Mr Archer as opposed to the Twins.   Should have been more oriented towards incentives and that 2023 option price is totally unrealistic.   Archer must have one hell of an agent.  I'd say this was another (like Correa) one and done, but I seriously doubt that Archer will make it through the "ONE".

Articles said the Twins viewed his trackman data. In fact, the pitch data is actually on Archer's IG, so they definitely saw all his stuff beforehand. 

What does it do for the rotation?  It adds one more guy to compete for the 5th starter job. The Twins are starting the season with a #3 as the ace and four #4-5 guys. Unfortunately, I think they are done. I think they took a flyer on Archer after the trade market was ridiculously expensive. If they’re close, get a guy at deadline.