Twins Video
One thing to know about baseball fans is that they all hold the firm belief that their team’s manager is terrible and holding their team back from limitless success.
Plenty of Yankees fans hate Aaron Boone, thinking he’s too soft on his players.
Blue Jays fans think John Schneider is too beholden to analytics.
Astros fans think Dusty Baker is too beholden to Martin Maldonado.
Even Guardians fans liked to roast Terry "Tito" Francona for insisting on playing Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher and Amed Rosario.
Torey Lovullo and Dave Roberts? Bad in-game moves. Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell? Patsies for the front office.
And a vocal (at least on social media) segment of Twins fandom think that Rocco Baldelli is complete trash. They think he focuses too much on analytics, resulting in an over-reliance on platoon matchups, and quick hooks for his starters.
It doesn’t seem to matter much that Twins starters were second in baseball in innings pitched.
It doesn’t seem to matter that the Twins' use of platoons in the second half likely saved their season. For the year the Twins ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ for pinch hitters, including being third in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+ in the second half. They were also third in hitting lefties during the second half.
It also doesn’t seem to matter that Baldelli has altered his approach to match his personnel:
In 2022, with a flammable pitching staff that struggled across the board to pitch effective innings deep in games, Twins starters ranked 20th in innings pitched.
In 2019 with the bomba squad, the Twins had the eighth fewest pinch hitters. In 2023, with guys like Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien all major liabilities against lefties, the Twins had the third most pinch hitters.
Fans criticize Baldelli for Twins hitters striking out too much, not hitting situationally, and not bunting to move runners over.
The truth is that the Twins ranked eleventh in baseball in bunt hits, with 13, and 19th in sacrifice bunts, with twelve. This despite an offense that led the American League in home runs.
More importantly, they also ranked fourth in wRC+ with runners in scoring position.
The strikeouts were historically high, and contributed to Houston pitching shutting them down in games three and four of the ALDS, but for one, Baldelli wasn’t telling them to do that.
Two, when the Twins were struggling offensively in the first half, their strikeout rate was 26.8%, most in baseball. In the second half, when the Twins were the third most productive offense in baseball, their strikeout rate was 26.4%.
And three, it is on the front office to add more contact to the lineup in 2024, but they don’t have to do much. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo are free agents and struck out 33.5% and 42.8% of the time respectively, both incredibly high numbers. The Twins young hitters can hopefully improve, particularly Wallner and Julien. And the reinforcements at Triple A, Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, struck out 16% and 16.3%, respectively.
The team that Carlos Correa compares this team to, the 2015 Astros, had the second highest strikeout rate in baseball that year. I don't have to tell you how it's gone since then.
The main takeaway I have about Baldelli is that his team ended the playoff futility streak. You can claim that the team won despite him, but the reality is that the streak presented more of a mental challenge than any sort of game strategy hurdles (Although he graded out pretty well there, too).
For 19 years, the Twins played tight in the playoffs. They started that way this year, too. Game 1 of the Wild Card series began with Kirilloff whiffing on a foul ball, then Jorge Polanco making a throwing error to the same batter. But from that point on, the Twins were solid defensively, played smart, and although their hitting wasn’t great, they got the W. And then two more.
Players did not criticize Baldelli at any point, even when they were at their lowest in May and June. Sonny Gray was rumored to be miffed about Baldelli removing him from games before he wanted to, but he pitched his most innings since 2015. It has been reported that he wants to return, as well.
Joe Ryan had opportunity to blast Baldelli and the coaching staff for removing him after two innings on Wednesday, but he didn’t. He understood that the best chance the Twins had to win that game was to throw all of their high-octane relievers, and not only did the Twins hold Houston to three runs, they didn’t allow any add-on runs after Jose Abreu’s home run in the fourth.
If you have watched any Twins postseason games in the past 22 years, you know that may be a first.
Baldelli won division titles his first two years. In 2021, Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colome made sure there wouldn’t be a three-peat.
In 2022, the team entered the trade deadline fairly healthy and leading the division. Then 19 players went down with season-ending injuries.
The Twins made noise for the first time in decades these past few weeks, and some credit has to go to Baldelli. It’s hard to quantify, but I’ll try. Being considered an elite manager is part luck, part pure longevity and part skill. And you either need a lot of skill or a lot of luck to reach the longevity part.
It took Bruce Bochy winning a championship in 2010 before he was given credit for pulling the right strings and uniting clubhouses. After 16 years of managing.
Francona ended the Red Sox curse his first year on the job, so he was playing with house money. That made it easier to believe that his players loved him and would run through brick walls for him.
Brandon Hyde took his Orioles through an entire rebuild. Most of the time, managers that lead rebuilding clubs are replaced once the team gets good (poor Rick Renteria). Hyde was allowed to see his team through to success, and now is regarded as a manager of the year candidate. Whether his newfound reputation as a hard nosed but smart manager is due to opportunity, or due to merit, is impossible to know.
Baldelli is polished and professional to the media, but an uncouth New Englander behind the scenes. Gabe Kapler in the streets, Tommy Lasorda in the sheets, if you will. Time after time, when pressed about what caused the turnaround this season, players referred to an energetic, close-knit clubhouse where guys were communicative and accountable (compare that to the White Sox clubhouse). That’s on Baldelli.
Sure the personnel was responsible for the offense coming to life in the second half. But Wallner, Julien and Royce Lewis were still rookies, and it takes a certain vibe to get young players acclimated to the big leagues quickly and productively. That’s partly on veterans like Kyle Farmer, Kepler, Gray and Correa creating that atmosphere. But keeping veterans bought in and happy with their situation, even if they aren’t playing as much as they would like, is on Baldelli.
There’s also what he didn’t do. Baldelli never lashed out at the media, he never threw his players under the bus (except once for Kepler, but that tactic had the desired effect), and he never gave away game plans or strategies other teams could exploit. He also has had zero off-the-field issues. His players never showed him up, and the main criticisms he faced were from the very nuanced gang over at SKOR North trying to drive up engagement by citing the same disproven tropes I mentioned earlier.
It’s still possible that Baldelli is more of a neutral-ish manager overall, but one more division title and a little more playoff noise in 2024 (his sixth year as manager) will cement him as not just an asset, but a franchise-altering presence. If that happens, we should worry less about who wants him fired, and more about him jumping ship for a higher-profile job somewhere else. When was the last time that was a possibility?
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