Twins' Payroll Points to Six Big Decisions

1. Hope for the 125 mil (38 to spend)

2. Do NOT sign Cruz (that hurts but necessary), Rosie, May, Romo, Gonzo, Adrianza, Odo, or Homer. 

3. Rodgers gets 5 mil in arb

4. Rooker, Krill, or Larnach will fill the DH and outfield slot with Cave and Wade as adequate 4/5 outfielders

5. Gordon or internal for utility

6. Use the majority of the remaining 33 mil on a QUALITY starter with the remaining going to the bullpen (I'll leave this part up to the FO experts who have done a great job with talent management overall)

7. Open to an incentive laden one year option for Hill (but I don't feel good about it

Time to let the next generation fill the gaps (and hopefully they will be every bit as good as we hope). Would have liked to keep Cruz and May but will not work for our budget.

Addendum:  I think we can get better value for our bullpen dollars than paying for May

Time to have the prospects show us what they got. 

Addendum:  I think we can get better value for our bullpen dollars than paying for May

If Rogers is going to get +$5 million in arbitration, you could theoretically reframe the debate into who you'd rather have, Rogers or May. I think I lean May in that case, and you can shop Rogers for something.

Relief pitching is a year to year proposition. Rogers had an off year.  Don't read a lot into it. I would try and resign May, but it may get too expensive.  Remember those playoff rosters had several ex Twin relievers on them, most in prominent roles.  Clipard and Romo should be gone, and the Twins need to find other options or give tryouts to some of their depth.  

Cruz is a great mentor and I think you try and resign him, do not know if I want to give 2 years and if the NL has the DH, he will get that.  It is probably going to run 14 with a least a second year option.

Rosario, I would guess they are gauging his value in a trade.  If all he can bring you is a B+ prospect or a couple of lottery tickets, you may have to non tender him.  There will be a lot of outfielders in his class that may well be non tendered.  Problem is he earns too much money for small market teams. so trading him with a Smeltzer or another pitcher for a better pitcher or prospect is difficult. Plus you have Kirloff who looks ready and Laurach who was big time clutch in college. You can send Cave with him, and use Wade as the 5th outfielder, with Rooker being 4.

Middle infield backup, maybe it is time to see what Gordon has, Lewis will be here by 2022 so Polonco may be the backup by that time. (or Traded). 5th MI can probably be found cheap on the open market.

Pitching I am comfortable with one of Dobnak or Thorpe filling one hole and seeing what the farm system brings for the second.  Do not mind Oderizzi, but will probably be out of our price range.  

Relief, you should be able to find some options between the minors and FA's.  Am not too worried here.

That's depressing.

The 2020 team may be the most talented one we ever see. Looks like the last time we will ever have a lineup, rotation add bullpen with no significant holes (except for injuries).

Thank you for outlining this dilemma for us. All players which are in play to return have served the Twins admirably & I salute them all. I see Romo, Gonzalaz, Adrianza & possibly Baily as gone & I think May would like to test waters of FA. I`d like Hill to come back for 1 more year but not as part of the rotation, more as relief & spot starting as well as Clippard & Dobnak. Some that are arbitrations will depend on how much they want. I hope they sign Cruz for 1yr. & resign Odo, I hope they can get Bauer. As utility, Lewis to me makes the most sense. He has a lot of upside & savvy & we need desperately his talent. I believe he`s ready but the Twins are holding him back because of service time or they think he`s not ready. Give him a legitimate shot, if he stumble we can always get another crap shoot (I forgot right now the name of the infielder we got earlier this year). I believe one day Gordon will become a MLB SS but I hope it`s not w/ the Twins because I see him as having trouble making that transition & at most being average & that`s not what we need.

Count me among those, John, who see the payroll down to the $100M to $110M range.

With that restriction, I don't see them signing a big name starter. Also isn't room for Rosario or Cruz, unless Cruz is willing to come back for a max of $10M.

I see Adrianza returning, provided he is willing to do so for a salary similar to last year or a $2M max. The other utility player after a month of seasoning at Rochester will be Lewis, playing 4-5 games a week at second, short, third and center.

I bring back one of May or Clippard and resign Rogers as I think some of his problems this year were related to COVID and his role as player rep.

Yes, that already puts me over $110M and I don't have a #4 starter. I see them getting that player via trade. Considering the numbers you presented above, the player I trade is Sano. Also would consider signing Rosario and then trading him along with a mid-prospect for a better prospect who is close. 

Expect the payroll will be around $110M on opening day and we will see two of Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach or Lewis on the opening day roster with Lewis joining them after playing a lot of second, short, third and center at Rochester for a month or so, becoming the new Marwin Gonzalez until he settles into his own spot in future years.

On the COVID front, John, I don't see a lot of people in the stands on opening day unless both a vaccine and treatment is readily available to the masses. [And that likelihood is getting smaller every day.] Maybe a couple thousand, but nothing approaching full attendance. And with that uncertainty, the Twins and most clubs are going to be cutting their payrolls substantially, So maybe there is hope that most of the numbers you and others are presenting will be much higher than needed to sign someone like say, Odorizzi. 

I really believe this is the year we are going to see all those prospects be brought up to the majors - ready or not.  Fortunately we have the horses to fill many of our spots.  Our minor league depth will be depleted, but they are cheaper options in a likely tough financial year who happen to be pretty talented.  Goodbye Cruz, Rosario, Adrianza, Odorizzi - Hello rookies.

Fans should be back w/ NPs in 2021 but we need to figure in politics. Politics could throw a wrench in everything & that could drastically effect the payroll. If that`s the case I see FA take a big hit. Like I said , the fans should be back but if the scare continues which effects FA we could get Bauer at bargain basement. A person can dream

I agree with the person above me. Unless the payroll is going to remain the same as it was which is 100 percent unlikely, it seems impossible to keep Cruz if you plan to make significant upgrades in the pitching department (SP and BP). I would prioritize pitching over everything even though the offense continues to disappoint in the playoffs. 
 

Rosario needs to be traded or let go. The only other external add that may be needed is the utility. They may need a vet for that and someone who can play SS. I think only Gordon is ready in the minors unless I’m forgetting someone. I wouldn’t hate giving it to Gordon but he lost a lot of time due to Covid so I’m unsure about him. 

1. Hope for the 125 mil (38 to spend)

2. Do NOT sign Cruz (that hurts but necessary), Rosie, May, Romo, Gonzo, Adrianza, Odo, or Homer. 

3. Rodgers gets 5 mil in arb

4. Rooker, Krill, or Larnach will fill the DH and outfield slot with Cave and Wade as adequate 4/5 outfielders

5. Gordon or internal for utility

6. Use the majority of the remaining 33 mil on a QUALITY starter with the remaining going to the bullpen (I'll leave this part up to the FO experts who have done a great job with talent management overall)

7. Open to an incentive laden one year option for Hill (but I don't feel good about it

 

Time to let the next generation fill the gaps (and hopefully they will be every bit as good as we hope). Would have liked to keep Cruz and May but will not work for our budget.

 

I think the Twins will sign Cruz for 1 year with a team option for a second year.  I agree the Twins will let the other FAs you listed go but I think they should sign Clippard.  Gordon will be a utility IF and they should sign a veteran utility IF as well.  The SP FA class is thin and beyond Bauer, I don't really like it that much.  I think the Twins either sign Hill by hook or by crook and roll with Dobnak or another internal choice or trade Rosario and prospects for a SP.  I know he's not popular around here but Lance Lynn would be a good choice and the Rangers are looking for prospects.  The Twins need to start developing SPs or they will be going down the tubes in a couple of years.  I'd also consider trading Polanco if they signed Andrelton Simmons--I'd love to have a plus defensive SS for a change, although Polanco seemed solid there this year.

I think the answers will be delayed until all of baseball looks at what will be spent.  This is a time when collusion among owners could work - except that Steinbrenner and the Yankees sound like they could up the anti.  However if they are the only ones all the salaries will be depressed and owners would love that.

 

The Twins dilemma is only a problem if the team decides it needs to make a big cut.  I cannot look at baseball salaries as part of my world - I just lop off the last three zeros or my mind freezes.  With that being said - Cruz is a very expensive luxury if he digresses for one year, and an absolute blackhole if signed for two.  

 

Rosario loses only because we have Kiriloff, Larnach, and Rooker. 

 

Rogers could and should bounce back.  May does not bounce back because he has been the same pitcher with great promise every year.  He goes.

 

If we are moving in the youth than Gordon and Lewis are the utility players - Lewis can play CF.  Adrianza, Cave, Gonzalez are gone.

 

Not confident in Thorpe/Dobnak for a rotation spot.  Give me Duran - look at the young Ian Anderson of the Braves.  And then look to see which other young arms you can trust - Balazovic?  

 

I don't think Cruz is a liability and he's provided tremendous value for the Twins.  I'd also trade Polanco and Rosario for a decent SP and then make a run at Andrelton Simmons.  The team defense would improve noticeably with only Sano and Arraez being defensive liabilities (assuming Jeffers behind the plate).

Addendum:  I think we can get better value for our bullpen dollars than paying for May

I disagree, I have a lot more confidence in May than Rogers. I think May can be special when it matters the most. He's the only reliever who did well in those two playoff games this year.

The Twins’ projected payroll is almost always the closest thing we have to a crystal ball. For the last fifteen years, it has been the lens through which we can understand offseason possibilities, and how aggressive or passive the team is likely to be. The same thing is true this year, but uff-da – that lens is sure covered with a bunch of gunk.Still, through the crud, we can see the Twins wrestling with six big decisions. The first is the biggest, and everything else is dependent on it:

Decision 1: How much will the Twins budget in player payroll next year?
This is always a small mystery, but we usually have an idea within $10 million or (at most) $20 million. This year? It could be as much as a $60 million swing between the lowest and highest number.

Last year’s payroll was about $138 million. If it increases by 10% or so (which would be expected in a normal year), it could be as high as $150 million. If they anticipate zero fan revenue and being stuck with a full season of paying players, it’s possible it could be as low as … yikes. Your guess is as good as mine. Anything under $90M would be disastrous, so let’s set the floor there.

The difference is even bigger than it looks, because $87 million is pretty much committed, so they could have anywhere from $3M to $63M to spend. Here’s a breakdown. For more on these numbers, make sure to watch

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My best guess? It is reduced to $115-125M, leaving them $28M to $38M to spend. But they need to fill five pretty large holes that weren’t included in that $87M.

Decision 2: How much to spend on a designated hitter?
Nelson Cruz is a free agent. They can try and bring him back, but he’s going to cost $13-$15M. Or they can search for someone cheaper on the free agent market. Or they can plug in one of the Twins’ prospect bats, like Brent Rooker, Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach, and save the money for another spot.

Decision 3: Bring back Eddie Rosario?
If the Twins offer Eddie Rosario arbitration, he will make around $10M. (That $10M is not included in the $87M figure.) Or they can sever ties and play some combination of prospects plus Jake Cave or Lamonte Wade Jr in left field for less than $1M, and save that money for another spot.

Decision 4: How much to spend on a starting pitcher?
Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill (and Homer Bailey) are all free agents. The starting rotation next year still has Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak, but that leaves a spot open. If you believe the Twins need an ace, Trevor Bauer will be a free agent, but he could cost $30M. Is this where they should spend their money, or budget less for a back-end-of-the-rotation starter?

Decision 5: Who must be paid in the bullpen?
Trevor May is a free agent, and likely to earn $4-6M. Taylor Rogers will be eligible for arbitration and be due a raise up to $6-7M if the Twins offer it. Sergio Romo has a $5M team option. None of those are included in the committed $87M, so bringing them all back boosts the payroll almost $17M, or a little more than paying Nelson Cruz to return. Or should the Twins feel comfortable relying on their existing bullpen depth?

Decision 6: How much to invest in a utility player?
Both Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are free agents this offseason, and together they played 97 games (in a 60-game season). Should the Twins roll the dice with cheaper internal options, right after they went through a season depending on utility players due to injuries to Josh Donaldson and Luis Arraez, and as Jorge Polanco undergoes offseason surgery? How important is that compared to the other decisions?

I’d encourage you to answer these questions yourself. Keep track of the totals. See where your payroll ends up. See if you can hit a number you’re comfortable with.

I think you’ll find that tough choices are going to need to be made. Difficult priorities will need to be set. How brutal those choices are depends on a lot on the budget, and oddly enough, it doesn’t appear the Twins (or several other MLB teams) really know the answer to that question yet. Like a lot during the pandemic, the answer is to keep one’s head up and adjust.

But those adjustments will still depend on payroll and its crystal ball. Even if it is cloudy.

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I am not sure on most of the answers but well done in terms of outlining the questions. I will say that I agree with DC Twin in the primary investment being made in starting pitching. There could be some very good deals out there next year for utility players. There are going to be some non-tenders that can be signed relatively cheap.

I think the players and league should be back at the bargaining table as soon as the WS ends. They need to come up with something other than 100% compensation if fans are not present. I could be wrong but it would seem logical that teams are going to be very conservative this off-season if an agreement for salary relief does not take place. Maybe teams will be confident we will be back to normal next year but I doubt it.

Relief pitching is a year to year proposition. Rogers had an off year.  Don't read a lot into it. I would try and resign May, but it may get too expensive.  Remember those playoff rosters had several ex Twin relievers on them, most in prominent roles.  Clipard and Romo should be gone, and the Twins need to find other options or give tryouts to some of their depth.  

Cruz is a great mentor and I think you try and resign him, do not know if I want to give 2 years and if the NL has the DH, he will get that.  It is probably going to run 14 with a least a second year option.

Rosario, I would guess they are gauging his value in a trade.  If all he can bring you is a B+ prospect or a couple of lottery tickets, you may have to non tender him.  There will be a lot of outfielders in his class that may well be non tendered.  Problem is he earns too much money for small market teams. so trading him with a Smeltzer or another pitcher for a better pitcher or prospect is difficult. Plus you have Kirloff who looks ready and Laurach who was big time clutch in college. You can send Cave with him, and use Wade as the 5th outfielder, with Rooker being 4.

Middle infield backup, maybe it is time to see what Gordon has, Lewis will be here by 2022 so Polonco may be the backup by that time. (or Traded). 5th MI can probably be found cheap on the open market.

Pitching I am comfortable with one of Dobnak or Thorpe filling one hole and seeing what the farm system brings for the second.  Do not mind Oderizzi, but will probably be out of our price range.  

Relief, you should be able to find some options between the minors and FA's.  Am not too worried here.

I would like to see May and Clippard come back. Clippard is consistent and he does not cost much. I am certainly not comfortable with Dobnak / Smeltzer/ Thorpe on the major league roster.

Great topic, great opinions.  I am mostly in chpettit19's corner, with a couple of changes.  I start with Cruz.  We haven't won a post season game in our last 18 tries.  Our offense seems to desert us come the post season.  Cruz was the ONLY hitter who showed up.  I HAVE TO HAVE HIM.  $10-$13 million-1year with a $10 million dollar 2nd year option.  He wants to be here...we need him.  Bring him back.  

Rosario is traded or DFA'd.  Sano is TRADED.  $10 million saved.  Someone will be intrigued by his power.  I have Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Rooker, Wade and maybe Cave in the Outfield.  Garver & Jeffers are my catchers.  Donaldson, Polanco and Arraez are 3B, SS, 2B.  I get Royce Lewis up here as my super utility guy.  Maybe he can play Winter Ball and play all over.  But the youth movement MUST begin.  Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and Dobnak are 4 starters.  I offer Rich Hill one more year at 2-3 million.  And then I pay $30-$35 million for Trevor Bauer.  The Twins CAN afford both Cruz and Bauer.  Kiriloff, Rooker, Lewis (and Larnach not too long after) need to be around Cruz and Donaldson.  it's more important to get them up to the show than risk another lost of limited minor league season.  I keep Rogers at $5-$6 million---He's much better than what he showed this year.  He'll be back.    All this could have a payroll of roughly $115-$120 million.  Start the youth movement.  Retain valuable vets.  In 2-years we will know if Buxton should be our CF or if Lewis supplants him.  If Kepler sticks and Kiriloff, Larnach and Rooker replace him.  If Polanco is our SS or if Lewis or Wander Javier or somebody else is.  And sometime in 2021 or 2022 Balazovic and Duran are knocking on the door.  The Braves and Dodgers, the Rays and White Sox ALL have young players ready to emerge if they haven't already.  We have to trust our young guys.

I think payroll will be reduced substantially. No income from this year and next year highly questionable. Rosario will need to be non-tendered as he has no excess trade value. No way they waste money on Adrianza or Gonzales when Gordon can at least fill in partially. As for the other choices I have no idea other than you do need to start incorporating some of the prospects that are ready. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sano is dealt.

Anybody have buyers remorse on Josh Donaldson? I do.

Wow, after seeing the numbers all laid out, I wouldn't expect Cruz or Rosario back next year.    Even if they plan to spend up to 100-115 mil, I would expect the majority of that to go towards a new super-utility guy, a back-up SS, one SP, and rounding out the bullpen.    Doesn't leave much room for 10 mil+ sluggers.